Didn’t even need the 17th game.

Edit: super bowl era rookie receiving yards record*

We're here! At the end of the road. This is really a recap post - not planning to update for should-be-institutionalized Week 18 fantasy players. Modified this a bit from this morning as my first attempt got gobbled up by the automod.

I realized this week that “Fantasy Games Won”, as I conceived it, is really a regular season metric. I was missing the logical conclusion to this train of thought:

Wins only matter insofar as they increase your chances of winning a championship.

So I’ve added a new calculation for the playoff weeks – Fantasy Championships Won (FCW). You take the % chance you have of making the playoffs with a player, then the % chances of winning in the Semifinals, and then the Finals. The product of those three percentages is the chance you won your league with a player, and thus the player’s FCW. Should be a decent comparison to ownership of players amongst championship teams.

This is an abbreviated version of my full write-up here: https://byroncobalt.com/2022/01/08/in-one-game-jamarr-chase-became-the-6th-best-fantasy-asset-of-2021-fantasy-games-won-fgw-season-recap/#more-509

For an explanation of how the FGW scoring system works, see the initial write-up from after Week 1: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

TL;DR: FGW (Fantasy Games Won) is the total improvement a player makes to your % chance of winning each week. Going from 50% chance to 90% chance is 0.40 - unless the player was started in less than 100% of leagues, where 0.40 is multiplied by % started for the week. So 10% started brings 0.40 down to 0.04.

Percent started is not based on real percentages, but approximated "good fantasy player" percentages, which are predicted by expert rankings.

dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

Who Won The Week?

Reminder from last week: Smaller numbers for smaller active percentages

• Davante Adams really likes the fantasy playoffs. Not sure if I’m complementing him here.
• The eagles Bengals are coming! The Bengals are coming!
• If you recall, Ja’Marr was deadly

Chase had 1,163 yards coming into today according to ESPN. He now has 266 today for a total of for a total of 1,429 compared to Jefferson’s record of 1,400 from last year. Crazy that they were on that same LSU team and I know it’s been discussed plenty but also crazy how many people were doubting him after preseason

Stone hands who??? WHO DEY

Chase has 1,429 receiving yards this year, surpassing his LSU teammate Justin Jefferson with his 266-yard performance. Now, he needs 44 more yards to best Bill Groman’s 1960 season.

Kyle Pitts has 1,018 receiving yards this season, only the second rookie TE to pass 1,000 yards in a season after Mike Ditka had 1,076 yards in 1961.

Terrace Marshall has 138 yards in 13 games.

Edit: Thanks u/LovejoyForNorris for pointing out that Jaylen Waddle is 2 receptions away from breaking Anquan Boldin’s record in 2003.

Ja’Marr Chase posted his worst outing of the season (1.3 points ppr), and now I’m out of the playoffs. Who else let you guys down when you needed it most?

He’ll probably win OROY now. Hopefully Mannion and Zimmer don’t cost JJ a 1st team all pro spot. Would piss me off to no end.

Weeks 1-7: 754 Yards, 6 TD's, 21 Yards Per Reception

Weeks 8-13: 204 Yards, 2 TD's, 10 Yards Per Reception

It seems as though everything is dropping about him right now. His targets are going down, catches, redzone opportunities, etc.

Should owners be worried about starting him come playoffs?

Reminder: NFL WR rookies are pretty rare to pan out as fantasy studs year 1. We have been spoiled with back to back rookie WR's being top 12 WR1 options in fantasy. If you are already planning on giving up on some WR's from the 2021 draft (Devonta Smith WR30, Rondale Moore WR61, Rashod Bateman WR68), don't and stay the course

From Previous Rookie Seasons:

2015

• Amari Cooper: WR 20

• Tyler Lockett: WR 40

• Stefon Diggs: WR 46

2016

• Tyler Boyd: WR65

• Tyreek Hill: WR19

2017

• Mike Williams: WR137

• Juju: WR20

• Cooper Kupp: WR25

• Chris Godwin: WR 68

2018

• D.J Moore: WR39

• Calvin Ridley: WR22

• D.J Chark: WR144

• Michael Gallup: WR 76

2019

• Hollywood Brown: WR 46

• Deebo: WR32

• AJB: WR21

• D.K: WR34

• Diontae Johnson: WR41

• Scary Terry: WR29

• Hunter Renfrow: WR 54

2020

• Tee Higgins: WR28

• Michael Pittman: WR79

• Van Jefferson: WR120

• Darnell Mooney: WR50

After watching that whole game and digesting the end result this is all I can think of. Herbert is an incredible QB and on paper you can say their WRs are good enough but the eye test tells me they really lack a big play target downfield, especially for a guy like Herbert.

I won't get into much more comparisons between the two since it isn't the main point for posting this. I just wanted to acknowledge how big of an impact a skill player has made for us this year. TBH I think Ja'Marr has single-handedly shifted my view on WRs in terms of immediate value compared to some other positions.