Herbert: 4 total TDs, no picks, 347 passing yards, 63% completion, 66 rushing yards, 111.3 rtg

Mayfield: 5 TDs, 1 pick, 297 passing yards, 79%, 135.6 rtg

Mayfield's high completion percentage might give him the edge, but Herb didn't turn it over at all, and he ran well too.

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Watching Pickett just reminds me so much of Herbert. These qualities make me think he will be elite immediately:

• Ability to drop back and throw deep accurate passes, hits receivers in stride

• Not a run first QB that sacrifices throw accuracy/power for mobility and athleticism, but can run and make plays with his legs

• Navigates clean pocket well and senses pressure off the edge

• Can make off-schedule plays outisde the pocket, being patient keeping his eyes downfield as the play develops instead of panicking and running

• Very accurate, can get ball to his best players

He will probably also be in a decent situation for a rookie QB based on the teams of need, the only thing that worries me is he probably won't have a great HC. These are my expected landing spots for him:

• Carolina #6 overall. Weak O-Line but CMC, Moore, and Anderson give him dynamic playmakers that will elevate him

• Denver #9 overall. Very good offense other than QB. Should have a strong run game with Gordon and Williams, plus good receiving corps in Jeudy, Sutton, Patrick, and Fant

• Washington #11 overall. Less talented on offense but Scary Terry is so good and would help Pickett a lot. I'm also high on Gibson to establish the run and McKissic as a pass blocker/catcher

• New Orleans #18 overall. Not a super strong receiving corps, but would have Kamara, Thomas, a very strong O-Line, and Sean Payton, who would probably be the best for his development

• Pittsburgh #20 overall. That offense is full of playmakers already with Najee, Diontae, Claypool, Muth, and JuJu. The O-line isn't great but the skill positions are. Tomlin is also a very good HC

What do you guys think? Am I being too optimistic? He is very impressive to me and would likely be in an offense with some great players to support him, unlike this years QBs like Tlaw who had very little help

Ik everyone is still upset about the lost but it’s only like 6 QBs better than Dak Prescott

Mahomes Brady Rodgers Allen and Herbert are for sure better

I think Dak is the best of the second tier Stafford has Mcvay and amazing scheme and Kupp so if you say he’s better I guess and I’d like to throw Burrow into the he’s possibly better than Dak I wouldn’t argue

Kyler and Lamar I think he’s better than those guys Lamar was awful this year and Kyler after his hot streak wasn’t good

Carr and Cousins I’d say he’s better than them Cousins it’s a reason why they want to move off him. Carr he’s better than Carr

So Dak is 7-8ish imo it’s a gap between the top 6 and everyone and he’s more than capable of winning a SB

This sub acts like He’s Baker Mayfield

Shocking inefficiency tonight made this possible

With the recent litany of price check threads we’ve seen come through, I decided to look at the general publics rankings on KeepTradeCut and compare those to the experts from FantasyPros, Pro Football Focus and ESPN. Each of the experts have a weighted value that is then used to find the ECR; FantasyPros is weighted at 0.5, PFF is weighted at 0.3 and ESPN is weighted at 0.2. This is completely subjective, but I felt ESPNs were a bit out of date (maybe a month or so ago) hence they have the lowest weight.

I did my best to focus on fantasy relevant players and ignore the dart throws. Most notable difference in perceived value (both overvalued and undervalued) is at the QB position. The model score is just a simple calculation of KTC ranking minus the ECR number. Anyway, here is what the numbers say!

Overvalued Assets (Sell Indicator)

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET - This one hurts, but the experts aren’t nearly as high on the Sun God as the rest of the fantasy community. Sitting at 50 overall on KTC, PFF is actually higher on ARSB than us having him sitting at 41 overall; however, he is weighed down by the disrespect from PFF and FantasyPros being ranked 104 and 164 respectively. If you believe that guys who get paid to watch football and give opinions might have more insight than you, then this is a sell high. But if your like me, you tell them to eat shit and I’ll hold until I can’t hold no more. KTC #50; FP #104, PFF #41, ESPN #164. Model score: -47.1
2. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA (?) - Son of a….another one of “my guys”. I do see the pessimism around Rashaad Penny though with his injury history and contract questions - KTC has him at 90 overall, but the weighted ECR puts him at 135 overall. Hopefully he can keep delivering the same value as he did down the stretch, or you can get yourself a pretty penny for the flash in the pan. KTC #90; FP #124, PFF #84, ESPN #241. Model score: -45.4
3. Josh Allen, QB, BUF - And we have our first (of many) QBs in this post. Josh Allen is incredible, there is no denying that - but in a 1 QB league he is currently sitting at 15 on KTC. I’m sorry, but QBs just don’t carry that much value. We’re talking about him in the neighborhood of guys like Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf and Davante Adams - all WR1s. KTC #15; FP #44, PFF #49, ESPN #55. Model score: -32.7
4. Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF - Elijah Mitchell was a savior for many a hobbled RB room this seaso

Just wanted to post some objective facts about the playoff success of QBs on their rookie contracts since it is a big topic of discussion, hopefully it's useful as we debate QB strategy. I'm including R1 and other QBs who have started. Let me know if I missed anyone.

Please note QBs early in their careers aren't exactly expected to make the playoffs so if they haven't it's not a slight, ect

2021

Trevor Lawrence- No

Zach Wilson- No

Justin Fields- No

Trey Lance- Year 1 but didn't play

Mac Jones- Year 1 (#6 seed)

2020

Burrow- Year 2 (#4 seed)

Tua Tagovailoa- No

Justin Herbert- No

Jordan Love- never played

Jalen Hurts- Year 2 (#7 seed)

2019

Kyler Murray- Year 3 (#5 seed)

Daniel Jones- No

Dwayne Haskins- No

2018

Baker Mayfield- Year 3, (#6 seed, one win)

Sam Darnold- No

Josh Allen- Year 2,3,4 (#5, #2, #3 seed, two wins, one bye)

Josh Rosen- No

Lamar Jackson- Year 1, 2, 3 (#4, #1, #5, seed, 1 win, one bye)

Of course we all know Mahomes was a great success the prior year, all QBs from that class are now out of their rookie deals.