So we decided to set up a Boobie Trap
Quick backstory on MTB... On March 1 they obtained the assets of Scotia Bank including 32.3 million oz of silver in the comex vaults as registered silver. Since then, they have have been transferring that silver in tranches from registered to eligible and then OUT OF THE VAULT. Since March, they have moved 10.0 million out of registered and 8.4 million oz OUT OF THE VAULT.
Today's report shows they moved 1.2 million from eligible OUT OF THE VAULT. However it also shows they moved 0.6 million from eligible into registered and that move doesn't fit the recent pattern. So, we'll see what happens next ...
I see that several plane loads of apes have once again arrived at WSS today continuing our 34000% per year growth rate. Public service announcement: Us apes always shout OUT OF THE VAULT regarding comex withdrawals.
The silverback vault report:
https://preview.redd.it/mmb3du9vo5z61.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=19772c756ebb36c3af03c3686101d468b034d85d
To lift his spirits
The last time comex was in a supply crunch, JP Morgan rode in on their big, black horse and transferred 29.7 million oz from eligible to registered. This occurred the exact day deliveries commenced for the July, 2020 futures contract. Just in time inventory management.
Had they not done the transfer, comex's ratio of registered warehouse stocks to trailing 12 month delivery would have fallen to 4.3 months. The transfer increased the supply - demand ratio back to the usual operating range of 5.7 months. That transfer was a save of a depleted supply situation.
Then came the silver squeeze which has pressed for physical metal at the local coin shops, on the micro silver futures contracts and at the big table ... the 5,000 oz silver contracts. Comex deliveries have been on a 100% CAGR trajectory.
In only 3 months the squeeze has apparently drained 22% of the registered stocks. That is 32.3 million oz. If that plunge in warehouse stocks wasn't the result of the squeeze, somebody tell me the destination of all that metal. And, before you answer that ...look at the plot below:
https://preview.redd.it/t0dg34da7dw61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=53f3582adf488df40b3b7302b1e2fc70c3d440c2
The combination of increased demand from the squeeze and reduced supply has again cut the supply demand ratio. This time it has entered a critical point of only 3.8 months of supply at the current delivery rates. This is one of the lowest values in the last 2 decades.
To increase the ratio to a normal operating value would require a transfer of 52 million oz into registered.
And then we get to today ...
Today is first notice day for the May contract. That starts the delivery process ... and what happens? Just like in July, 2020, big, bad JP Morgan comes riding in ... but this time they ride in on a little pony. They only transferred a puny 2.4 million oz into registered.
That's the big salvation?
OK. Mistakes can be made. Maybe there was a fat finger error and they meant to transfer 24 million oz today and another 24 million on Monday, but they accidentally hit a decimal in there. So, maybe we'll see a big transfer next week. We will see.
Or maybe they don't have the metal.
JP Morgan is, by far, the largest holder of eligible stocks having nearly 2/3 of the total eligible silver volume. They are the only player with the stocks to solve the comex supply crunch.
JP Morgan's vault is reported to contain 157 million oz of eligible silver. However
... keep reading on reddit β‘I get it now. Some background ...
Manfra, Tordella and Brooks had bought 32.3 million oz of registered silver from Scotia Bank as they exited the monetary metals business. That transfer was reported on comex stocks report on March 2.
One of our fellow apes believed that MTB planned to withdrawal that silver from comex's warehouse. I assigned it to hear-say as he couldn't or wouldn't specify a source.
On today's report MTB moved 2.5 million oz out of registered and 0.6 million OUT OF THE VAULT.
(Public service announcement to the thousands of new apes arriving daily ... we always shout OUT OF THE VAULT. Now back to the thread ...)
So far, about 2 months after the acquisition, MTB has now removed 10.6 million oz out of registered and 6.1 million oz OUT OF THE VAULT. Our fellow ape's information may well be correct.
https://preview.redd.it/v5jiqjud16x61.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cd9408e01027c93260e5e24dc246e2a519e4972
Everyone that has been following my thread closely will now jump up and say ... What about The Ratio?
If we assume that the remaining 23 million oz of registered silver in MTB's vault is headed for elsewhere, then it wouldn't be available for settling deliveries. I've discussed how the comex warehouse is stressed when viewed as a ratio of registered stocks to trailing 12 month deliveries. If we subtract MTB's registered volume and recalculate The Ratio we get the green line in the plot below.
https://preview.redd.it/ps846gkb16x61.png?width=968&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee14b7283e7541dd41ae95fb4c29f60fac11d456
While it doesn't seem to be much of a change visually, the new ratio after subtracting MTB would now be 3.1 months. You can see from the dotted line that the current Ratio is very near the all time low over the last 2 decades.
In my earlier posts I had discussed that when the ratio is under 3 months, there is often a substantial price increase over the next 12 months. If you believe MTB's silver is AWOL, then revisit this plot with a 3.1 month value. This would predict that the market is on a precipice of a price increase.
https://preview.redd.it/ppin69co46x61.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=498de7529ec68a8c5498d038a5355156d0a67761
Fellow ape u/victor70 is familiar with this concept in proper economic terms calling it "extreme value theory". His supporting link is as follows:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_value_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_value_
... keep reading on reddit β‘Let that sink in...
Given the inflation horror show no sane investor would short silver. Investor physical demand is off the charts. But the banks are short! We know exactly how short the banks were on the Comex at April 30 close. The bank participation report is out for April.
https://preview.redd.it/xu0ppr15qax61.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=65c0b1e3ba837e0f8443c77aac892ca4b26b3f82
Time to be a whiny ape. Banks shills down vote my posts so you don't get to see them. I up vote hundreds of stack pictures and memes and due diligence etc. a week. If you think the work I put into these posts is valuable please take a second to upvote!
The banks were long 13,882 comex contracts and short 66,649 contracts. They were short 52,767 contracts! That is 263.8 million ounces of silver. That's 225% of all the registered silver in the Comex. This doesn't include the short positions on the LBMA which makes the Comex look like girl scouts.
Why are they short so much silver. What reason could they possibly have for contracting to sell multiples of all the silver they control in the Comex warehouses.
On Monday after the raid strong buying came into the Comex. Likely spurred by bullion dealer covering shorts because they sold so much silver during the raid. So on Monday open interest on the Comex went up 9,000 contracts. Who was selling Monday besides the fraud banks?? That's an additional 45 million ounces they went short. Are they insane? No, they are criminals. They are short so much silver that a rising price of silver will destroy them.
But wait there's more. Smoke is billowing from the whole corrupt putrid syndicate called the Comex. Most Apes are aware that inventory has been Leaving the Vaults on the Comex. There is no bigger sign of stress than dropping inventory. Silver inventories has been shrinking dramatically since the squeeze began. Bank controlled registered inventory has dropped over 35 million ounces to less than 117 million ounces dropping over 3 million yesterday.
https://preview.redd.it/p8xcp578max61.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba7d94ba51dce3dfc83a47abb66311193deb11cd
In mid April it looked like there might be a record delivery month in May. May open interest increased twice during rollover period when traders are closing their positions. This is very unusual and a clear sign of strong physical demand on the Comex. During last week before May First Notice Day open interest dropped dramatically and only 7554 cont
... keep reading on reddit β‘
Throwaway account for obvious reasons.
The following is a list of abuse we package handlers consistently experience at the FedEx Ground warehouse in North Salt Lake. This company and its management:
- Actively attempts to prevent employees from getting medical help for work-related injuries and refuses to file work-related injury paperwork when informed of the injury.
- Ignores time off requests, even if it is PTO requested over a month in advance and even if you follow-up with multiple different managers.
- Fails to consistently pay Latina employees for overtime hours.
- Fails to consistently notify employees of pay changes and fails to find a solution when informed of missing wages.
- Penalizes employees for being unable to perform tasks that conflict with doctor-assigned lifting restrictions or other known injuries.
- Assigns employees that are not trainers to train new hires and fails to adjust their wages to reflect the higher pay of trainers.
- Fails to adhere to policies that protect employees from workplace sexual harassment, discrimination, and/or hostility from other employees.
- Refuses employees who ask to temporarily leave their post to attend to feminine hygiene.
- Full-time employees are expected to work 6 days a week while part-time employees are not.
- Full-time employees are paid more than part-time employees even when part-time employees put in full-time hours.
- Edit: Fails to pay employees for mandatory two weeks quarantine after testing positive for COVID.
- Edit: Fails to reactivate employee badges after an employee returns from medical leave, which prevents them from clocking in or out and causes these employees to work for days, weeks, or months without pay until the badge is reactivated.
If you are an employee and have experienced something on this list or something that can be added to this list, please let me know. If you would like to contribute to this post but remain completely anonymous so FedEx cannot track you and retaliate, please send me a private message. Confidentiality is important to me.
We were informed recently that we're getting a permanent pay raise soon, but it's my understanding that this is in an effort to prevent employees from quitting. The reality of the situation is that the turnover rate is so high because we are verbally and emotionally abused by management, and dismissed or ignored when there are problems that need to be addressed. A change in pay isn't going to fix the revolving door that is this c
... keep reading on reddit β‘Sonny boy, you can't chop that giant redwood tree down with that little ax. That tree was there when Christopher Columbus pushed off from Spain. It'll never go down with just you swinging that little ax.
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EDIT: Ok look, it's simple. We're draining the supply (at the comex warehouse and probably lots of other places) and adding demand (physical in the apes hands and at PSLV). This is causing strain!! It appears that they are choking. Possibly they are on the ropes as we deliver blow after blow. PSLV installs 200,000 oz INTO OUR VAULT EACH DAY. They are not filling the comex warehouse to supply deliveries and it is deteriorating fast. Only JP Morgan can stop this and it's possible they don't have the metal.
Now, back to my usual professional, calm self for the complicated part:
end of EDIT
I did an analysis of comex silver warehouse stocks, comex silver futures deliveries and silver prices to find basic trends. Here are the results:
- Over the period studied, from year 2000 to current, the comex registered warehouse stocks correlate well with Trialing Twelve Months (TTM) Comex futures deliveries with a correlation coefficient of 0.76.
- The ratio of comex registered stocks to TTM comex deliveries (which I will just call The Ratio) has averaged 5.5 months. That means that if stocks and deliveries were constant, the silver deliveries in 5.5 months would equal the registered stocks. (As a reminder "delivered" doesn't mean metal is removed from the vault. Delivery means that the warrant was transferred.)
- Since the start of the silver squeeze, The Ratio has declined sharply from 6.1 months to the current value of 3.8 months. This is due to a 33 million oz decrease in registered silver and an increase in TTM deliveries from 294 to 370 million oz.
- If The Ratio was managed to be 5.5 months, the expected registered volume should currently be 170 million oz. This is a 52 million oz deficit compared to the current warehouse stock of 118 million oz.
- Of the 9 comex vaults, only one vault has eligible silver volume exceeding 53 million oz and that is the JP Morgan vault which is reported to contain 157 million oz of eligible silver. That is triple the deficit. The next largest eligible stocks reported volume is operated by Brinks at 24.3 million oz or half of the deficit. If deliveries continue at their current pace look for a large movement
TL;DR: Amazon managers want me to play games, I don't
It was the summer of 2020, recently graduated college, and I was on the hunt for product design jobs. Granted, COVID really hampered that, so after 3 months of searching, I needed more money for food, gas, etc. Prospects were not looking good, so I bit the bullet and sold my soul to Amazon Fulfilment. That $15/hour for menial labor was what drew me in. It's not worth it.
That soul I sold has now been crushed.
There are a lot of bad things about working at Amazon. All the horror stories you hear are true. My experience was picking, the most common job entry level associates get. Here's what the job entails:
Picking is how products go from inbound to outbound. Whenever a customer on Amazon places their order, pickers are the ones who take the product from a pod(the tall yellow shelves of product that the robot brings to your picking station) and place it in those fucking yellow totes. When a tote has enough things in it, you push it forward and the machines and conveyor belts send that tote to the other end of the warehouse where outbound packers will get it ready to ship. Your entire 10 hour shift is spent standing in an area the size of a dinner table and constantly picking. And I mean constantly. You cannot stop picking or else operations managers will come breath down your neck. Everything is monitored by cameras and Amazon's algorithm, micromanaging as much as possible. You've probably heard terms like "time off task" yeah, fuck that BS. Managers want you picking at a breakneck 400 units per hour.
The tipping point for me was their fucking "games"
You see, the machines you pick from (ARSAW) have two touchscreens at each pick station. The main screen is all that matters, as it tells you what item to pick and which tote to place it in. It also tells you how many items you've picked, your rate, how fast you swap a full tote with an empty, and the time in-between each scanned product. Nothing wrong there, it's simply how you interact with your job. Now the second screen...fuck the second screen. It's for games. Everytime you sign in at your station, the second screen boots up games for you to play while picking. Except they're more like stat trackers than games because you barely even interact with them. You have a game that pits your floor against another floor in the warehouse. There's one where you raise a Tomagotchi like animal with food and excercise. There's one where you are in a spaceshi
... keep reading on reddit β‘
This is a raw berry !
MTB accounted for about half of the vault exit.
Today's numbers shown below and the backstory here:
https://preview.redd.it/1j9badoqwjx61.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c9c783e45f9e6ceb02a33d2f1a9ead43bf79ee1
The JP Morgan little pony is AWOL:
https://preview.redd.it/nslp4wxfizw61.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=aec294afe4e44c0f578bf883743466400ca1e367
Four days ago I had written about the ratio of comex registered silver to the trailing 12 month deliveries and pointed out how that ratio had been managed in a range of 3 to 9 months for over 20 years. Furthermore the ratio indicates that the warehouse stocks are currently extremely low compared to TTM deliveries. Here is a key plot of that analysis.
https://preview.redd.it/unw4r4t9czw61.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=db4ab2522c5dd4952f9080d59b88e7a13ff6420a
I pointed out how on prior occasions of stress, JP Morgan had "rode in on in on their big, black horse" to save the day. In the most recent, occasion they transferred 29.7 million oz from eligible to registered just prior to the start of deliveries for the July, 2020 futures contract.
It was a huge display of the powerful resources of JP Morgan. They are the largest holder of eligible silver in the comex vaults by far. You can see the impact of that transfer on registered inventories in the plot below.
Fast forward to the start of deliveries of the May, 21 contract last Friday. This time the warehouse inventory ratio is much worse than July and is entering a tenuous condition. Just on schedule, JP Morgan arrived, but this time riding a little pony, depositing a paltry 2.4 million oz. You can see the minimal impact of that on the warehouse stocks in the plot below.
And, now on today's report representing Fridays inventory ... there was NO CHANGE AT ALL in registered silver. None. And you cannot see that on the plot below.
https://preview.redd.it/e1gxmwi0czw61.png?width=1127&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd5a17b81d6a2a111c74d0278a03e064dc7261c5
Maybe JP Morgan has the inside information and they believe demand can be met. Time will tell, but the ratio indicates the vault supply is very tight.
Meanwhile, PSLV continues on its perpetual increase in silver ownership purchasing 400,000 oz last Friday. While PSLV's prospectus bars it from dealing with derivatives it likely doesn't purchase directly through the comex settlement process.
Perhaps PSLV's purchasing department has some
... keep reading on reddit β‘Today's tally:
https://preview.redd.it/t194o0p1zlv61.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=e733d7f8475db1591b1857fd7a83fffdad240fb6
