OOOOF

So Like I said that this merger could not have come at a worse time. AMD is accelerating their losses compared to their peers mainly bc of the share dilution. There is a very real concern that we slip below $100 today which would be catastrophic.

I might have to bust out the old trading range from back in the day. Remember $100 was a massive resistance to us that we could crack for almost a year so if we give it up without a fight then we are in some big trouble here. Me pulling the trigger on my 100 shares at $110 seems to have been premature but its just a lot I've got other lots at much better prices. I think my avg cost basis is like $72 for my entire position right now but thats bc I've moved in and out of AMD since the $20s. The chart is INCREDIBLY oversold and I'm really really glad that I was able to sell my XLNX position every day we see this pull back. It reinforces the logic to take your profits when you can.

I honestly waited WAY WAY too long to take my profits but still I don't see a bottom for us if we fall through $100 today. VIX has been humming along right around 30 and doesn't want to seem to signal volatility ending anytime soon. QQQ is approaching the next key support level of $317 unless if can find some support. But this selloff is getting brutal and I'm not sure that it stops here.

Interesting enough the value trade is holding up pretty well and I gotta say that INTC is looking attractive as we approach $45. Generally I think its a dogshit stock but for the value trade and dividend its not a horrible stock to own. Plus I could get some diversification in the semi sector. I'm sitting on some cash that I want to deploy and I need ot put it into some place. KO I still think could have a gap fill at $55 which would be my entry so that doesn't leave me with much on my chart that I want.

In a time like this you are looking for discounts. You are looking for bottoms. You are looking for value. We are way past oversold but we are still putting in crazy amounts of volume which means people are selling en masse. I honestly thought we would have gotten a bump just from the short pressure releasing from the merger arb closing but I guess they are more than happy to leave the shorts on to maximize the gains. So expect that when the bounce back happens you also will have a major shor

Deal Approval

Uggggh Deal approval could not come at a worse time. There really wasn't much to make on the merger arb with AMD at these low prices. Thats why entry back into XLNX mattered. In fact I think that we might see an initial bump just for the news and earnings but ultimately we will see the stock fall below that $110 support line just bc of the stock dilution. The market right now is still trying to digest a very MEHHHHHHHH fed call that didn't really give us concrete answers either way. So stock dilution at this time could see us crash all the way to the $100 level.

I hope I'm wrong but you can never be too certain in a chop trade like this. Volume has been pretty high for these periods since Monday showing that there is A LOT of churn. People are being very selective with their entries and taking profits wherever they can. Scalpers are out in droves looking to shave a few pennies here and there and its playing havoc with prices. We are in oversold from an RSI standpoint but this approval throws everything into turmoil.

The market seems to be rewarding companies that are able to issue strong forward guidance so now I'm wondering if Lisa's comments for this earnings are going to include XLNX roadmap or if they will make it a separate thing after they have had some time to digest what just happened. But getting some of that roadmap could be key to pull us from the much of a very mehhhh market and put us on a supercharge path.

If you are looking to buy AMD I gotta say it looks pretty attractive at these levels to me. You are getting it at a $110 level which has been very very good to us so far and you just got it with an additional BILLION in sales now. Cash flows matter right now more to the market than technicals. While Algos trade off of technical analysis cash flows is one of the big defining factors that is separating the winners from the losers in this market right now.

So yes I'm super happy that we got deal approval. I'm super sad that we couldn't maximize it to make the most profit possible. I was hoping we could get back to some level of strength and this would help us push through to new highs. But I think it will fortify the base for us and we might not fall too far below. Any trips down below $110 in the coming days I would be buying shares for sure. Volatility is still pretty high

Hi Apes!

I am excited to share my research on GameStop! This is not investment advice as I have a smooth brain! Buy, hold, DRS (I haven't seen enough purple circles recently!). I hope my research sheds light on the current state of the NFT market and how GameStop's NFT Marketplace could impact the business and overall market.

Abstract

My price target of $1013/share implies a 562% upside from its current share price (my price target is based on fundamental analysis outside of any MOASS considerations - my personal floor is infinity pool). I believe the market does not appreciate the potential value associated with GME’s ecommerce transition and NFT marketplace release and considers it a traditional brick & mortar retailer.

Relying on previously released due diligence reports (SuperStonk & Gmedd.com), and my own research, I believe GME’s share price is being actively manipulated preventing it from realizing it’s true value.

GME is a significant player in multiple industries: video game/consumer electronics, video game hardware/software, and projected to be a dominant player in the NFT marketplace vertical. I believe GME’s products and pricing are superior to competitors and the company is building valuable ecosystems that makes their core brand more valuable and sticker through their new NFT marketplace.

I project the total addressable market for GME’s NFT Marketplace to reach $85b in 2022 and $125b in 2023.

While GME struggled during COVID, the company’s transition led by Chairman Ryan Cohen and new CEO Matt Furlong position the brand to grow significantly in 2022 and beyond.

Company Background

GameStop (GME) is a reseller of video game hardware and software products through their network of 4800+ stores. GameStop sells products in multiple geographies including North America, Europe, and Australia. GameStop has recently rebranded foreign locations from EB Games to GameStop, creating a consistent brand across multiple geographies.

GameStop experienced a squeeze in January 2021 driven by retail FOMO. This is indicative of strong retail interest and a base of loyal shareholders with a long-term investment horizon aligned with GME’s transformation strategy. Meaning these shareholders will not sell before or potentially even after GME has successfully transformed, creating a share price floor and reducing risk.

GameStop’s board and executive team has undergone a transition in 2020 and 2021. GME’s new chairman, Ryan Cohen, has

This is going to get rough

It looks like today we are going to gap down below the 200 day EMA and same thing on NVDA. Anything tech related is under that 200 day EMA except XLNX which is being propped up by the specter of a close which isn't going to happen until end of Feb at the earliest I believe.

We are officially in correction mode in half my watchlist. My long hold positions are getting creamed, and I've given up A LOT of my gains so far. But I'm sitting real pretty with liquidating my position for XLNX. I'm comfortable selling those 600 shares at a price of $195. I think all of this is healthy for the market and it is giving us a big opportunity to buy this dip. There really isn't anything we can do at this point until we get through the FOMC meeting.

So buying list is where I'm at now since I hope we are getting close to a bottom now:

I'm adjusting my price target for NVDA. I would like to buy now at around $215-$220 which I think I will get. I missed my fill on Friday by like 0.50 which is stupid to miss a buy for something so small. But i gotta say I think NVDA could see $200 soon which would be nuts

XLNX I'm buying at $170. I think this has been holding up mainly bc the deal and with deep discounts in AMD, people are going to start to lose the faith and take some losses. I think this has further south to go short term and people will sell here. If I can get it lower then I absolutely will. Would lovvvve to get back in at a $150 level that I originally bought in

MSFT is getting interesting for me. Around that $290 level I think we are getting very close to where I gotta scoop up some shares.

Most of the market is hovering on oversold so I gotta think a bottom is close from here. It's not going to be a 2008 meltdown to zero here. There is way too much capitalization and cash sitting on the sidelines. People are going to buy this dip and the RSI oversold bounce is still the best indicator of a market bottom out there

Greetings Fellow BBIG Apes,

It's safe to say that this is the most exciting week we've had for our favorite stock in months! Everyone and their mother (yes, including my mother) knows about BBIG stock and the expected $BBIG moves next week. For this reason, I will be taking an extra careful and close look at the option flow data for BBIG from this past Friday.

I also want to take some time to discuss here (since I haven't seen it yet here) why option gamma effects option pricing the way it does and what we can expect from this. You will need to read my entire post to see why I am calling this the Gamma "blue ball" effect.

Obligatory statement: I am not a financial adviser and nothing I say here is financial advice. This post is meant for entertainment purposes, and I am simply sharing what I understand to be both true and relevant to the current situation with BBIG. I am presenting what I see objectively and providing my own takes/opinions on the data.

Let's get started.

What is option gamma and how does it change as we approach expiration?

An option price's gamma is the rate of change of delta, where delta is the change in an option's price for a given $1 price move in the underlying stock. For you fellow math nerds, delta is a first derivative and gamma is a second derivative, since it's a rate of change of a first derivative.

The most important and relevant fact about gamma is that gamma increases when the underlying stock price get closer to (1) the option STRIKE price and (2) the option EXPIRATION date. See the following graph from The Options Guide:

Fig. 1: Option gamma rate of change relative to the underlying stock price (using $50 strike price as an example). Green, blue and black lines are for 9 month, 6 month and 3 month to expiration. Credit: The Option Guide.

As we can clearly see here, the option gamma magnifies more rapidly as the underlying stock price approaches the strike price closer to the option expiration. Gamma maximizes when the strike price is equal to the underlying stock price. Market makers specifically use gamma as a way to hedge their positions in the event of RAPID PRICE MOVES if a stock price moves rapidly toward the option strike price. For this reason, this is why the biggest gamma squeeze almost always happen during the week of option expiration.

What does the option chain data look like for BBIG this week (1/21 expiration)?

Several BBIG apes

Choppy Waters Ahead

So today looks like the beginning of the chop. We are going to see a lot of violent moves in either direction. Yesterday we officially hit the oversold area of RSI and we are looking to see some semblance of a bottom. This whipsaw action actually is pretty good for us long term as it indicates the market is trying to find its footing and find good entry points. Bad on your portfolio short term but good for us long term.

Now we all know today is all about the Fed and what they come back with but I think the market is expecting rate hike in March. It will be interesting to hear what else they have to say. I dont think this crash causes the Fed to change course which is fine bc they will realize just a lot of speculation has come out of the market but real value is still there. But them noting the recent volatility might give us an indication that they are still ready to strike a dovish tone when needed to save the market from a massive bear market. Inflation still represents the biggest threat to the economy so we need to be aggressive with it so we don't end up with something stupid like 20% interest rates in the future.

Rarely do I agree with Jim Cramer but I do agree with his statement making the rounds that this recent pain is the result of SPACs and IPO's last year. You had a TON of not ready for prime time companies going public to take advantage of the highly speculative market. They were ignoring the regular "kick the tires" IPO process bc they knew they didn't have much to show. All of those speculative stocks are literally trashed right now and that is definitely weighing on the market. Most good stocks are just right back to where they were at the beginning of October which is a fine place to be. The garbage stocks are at all time lows. A lot of money has been lost but its the market taking the dumb money.

Quality still wins out and I'm expecting us to have really solid earnings with growth in server sector. The market has rewarded good forward guidance and the only risk here is Lisa's policy of under-promising and over-delivering. The market is going to take any under-promising as a negative forward guidance which I don't think is a good thing to do. But we will just have to see.

The $110 level looks like a nice buy zone for this chop. I'm going to be looking at the $100

first sign of a bottom?

So I don't think we have finished selling yet but I gotta say that yesterdays reversal is a great sign for us. Shows that there is some big money sitting on the sidelines that feels we are starting to find some value in these levels. I think if anything, this selloff has shaken out a lot of the speculative "dumb money" which is for the most part healthy.

Looking at the chart we approached yesterday at the lows exactly where we left off in October of last year before we took off on a CRAZY speculative run. We all got caught up in it thinking this was unreal but the market always corrects itself at the end of the day. The reversal yesterday was very very interesting. A lot of stocks printed the exact same hammer pattern which is a reversal signal as AMD.

We were down SIGNIFICANTLY and finally hit that buy trigger for some big money. Money came rushing back in and VIX dropped. Could this be a bull trap to squeeze the last bit of money for the bulls? Sure but I'm comfortable with a mini bear market and maybe some sideways trading. Markets don't have to just go up to make money. Especially when you have the ability to sell covered calls.

AMD specifically didn't hit oversold but most of the market has either hit that level or is hovering just a few points above that level. Seeing buyers wake up when some individual stocks were down almost double digits shows that the selling was getting WAY ahead of themselves. Rockafeller I think said: "when there is blood in the streets buy stock" and honestly that is great advice. I know it sucks bc no one wants to catch a falling knife but the truth is that you gotta pick an entry and go. You can't wait to see the bottom because it will already be too late once you see it.

Yesterday my order for NVDA filled at $210 which was fantastic. Picked up $100 shares and immediately sold a call for 250 strike for $4.75. So that call is up right now with the reversal but I'm making so much money off of the stock increase that I'm fine. I was honestly considering day trading NVDA and selling it for a quick $2k profit but I want to hold bc I think there is value here. Same thing with AMD. Anything below $110 is value and that would be a buy for me. I've re-positioned some of myself and used yesterday to do some selling and taking profits. I used the reversa

Yikes

So the chart looks pretty ugly. Looks like we now have no more support all the way down to $120 and then the 200 day EMA at $115 is next. Below that looks like $100. This looks like there is so much pain here. My swing trader algo officially turned bearish which is crazy that even with all of the recent selling it still was within reason for normal range. I might need to change the code bc it definitely seemed to lag a bit here.

So yesterday I did a thing: I sold out of my XLNX position. I'm not one of those people that preaches to everyone to hold the line while I'm selling out. So I'm being open and honest. I sold my 600 remaining XLNX shares at $194 yesterday. And I absolutely plan on buying back in but I think its going to go lower from here. I had an AVG cost basis of $149 for the shares so I made a GREAT profit. Could be leaving money on the table if we get approval soon but I don't think its going to happen for the following reasons:

-AMD had to re-file approval paperwork with US regulators. Now there is ZERO reason to expect that they won't get approval again but its easy to see that this is a potential speed bump to slow things down that means China has all the time in the world to continue to wait it out

-Lisa said by the end of the first quarter. All reports show that AMD has offered potential fixes to the very few problems Chinese regulators had and there is no reason for approval not to be granted. So why is it not being approved yet? What is this hold up? What is the big deal?

-I would argue this is political now. China is 100% focused on the Olympics which start in just a week and that is going to be a HUGE undertaking for the country in the age of Covid. I don't think they promise anything until they get through the Olympics. China cares soooo much about how it is viewed on the global stage that they are looking to pull this off without a hitch. We know that China ultimately has a very small group of people at the top making a majority of the decisions in a variety of industries so I would argue that expecting this to be approved as the nation switches its focus is going to Olympics means very little focus on this deal approval.

-If Olympics goes well and Xi is pleased then I think we get approval shortly after. But with different countries boycotting games with no diplom

I know this sub has a lot of ‘revenge’ stories that may or may not be fictional, but I promise this is 100% true and happened to me about 4 years ago. I have a few comments on the AntiWork movement at the end if you’re generous enough to listen.

I used to work as a business intelligence analyst for a really toxic company and a really toxic boss. I don’t think he showed me a shred of personal respect for the entirety of my time there, and once told me to my face that he’ll never care about me being overwhelmed by work until I can prove I worked over 100 hours that week. (Salary, unpaid overtime). Over two years I felt my mental health decline, and then my physical health. My weight ballooned because lunch was my only moment of respite and escape, and when I got home I was too exhausted and out of time to exercise.

I was making 55K a year, and because our company had insane turnover (red flag) we were CONSTANTLY interviewing for more analysts at my level. I started to notice unmistakably that the caliber of interviewees willing to apply at my income level were painfully lacking in experience or skillsets necessary to do the job. I had an epiphany that if someone were to ever apply with my level of experience they would absolutely throw 70K before letting them out of the building- and that if I quit, it would take a LOT more than 55K to cover for all of the departments I was keeping afloat.

I took this request to my boss and it was one of the most humiliating experiences I had there, which is really saying something. I asked for a raise and he started chuckling, caught himself and then told me the company already did extensive market analysis and I was definitely overpaid already. I kept quiet about my own market analysis of their inability to find anyone to apply ever at their rate. He asked me, still smiling cruelly, what I was going to ask for and I said “70?” and he busted out laughing again in uncontrollable laughter. That was the exact moment I knew in my heart I was leaving at all costs.

It took me approximately a month to return with a printed job offer for 105K at a nearby company also needing BI work. During my resignation he didn’t even blink in reaction, nor did he want to see my offer. (Might throw off the data in their flawless market analysis). My exit interview was the only time he ever asked me for constructive feedback, and I didn’t give him any. At that point he didn’t deserve any help from me to improve.

This might sound like an embit

Look out Below

So I was questioning my decision to sell my XLNX position yesterday as it showed some crazy resilience comparable to the market but the last hour confirmed my suspicion. The Macro position has fully broken down into correction mode. VIX is at 27+ and the pain of the new year continues. Netflix is going to accelerate tech losses as FAANG names shed some love. But I wouldn't worry too much.

So we always knew that this year was going to be a "stock picking" year. It wasn't going to be just a broad market, everything rises, kinda year. It was going to have to pick specific stocks. AMD is one of those stocks. its getting BATTERED but mainly thats because of the EPYC run-up it has taken in the past 4-5 months. What goes up must come down sometimes. It doesn't change the foundation and outlook for the company but its just market forces at work. We already were HEAVILY shorted as a result of the XLNX merger arb and now they are probably just piling on the shorts just bc its like "damn making money shorting the stock."

XLNX is holding up really really nice here and that is most likely bc of Arbs that showed up late to the game are not in a position to sell. It is such a low volume stock that people would rather hold. But with the collapse in AMD share price its interesting to note that people aren't selling XLNX. Hmmmm why do you think that? I would say bc they see value. They want to own the AMD shares. They know they may not make as much profit on the merger arb but they don't care bc the end result is AMD which shows some confidence in AMD stock.

So the good news about this Netflix debacle is that its going to accelerate losses in the tech sector and I would argue we will be closer to finding a bottom now. AMD is actually lagging the QQQ's a bit when it comes to finding oversold territory. But that is mainly just the result of how much we have risen to overbought before all of this. I would say that we will get a preview of where the bottom is on the macro picture BEFORE we see the bottom in AMD which will give us our buy signals to add to our leap positions.

I know a lot of people are facing a lot of pain right now and I sympathize with you. This is why I sold and took profits. This is why I always say don't chase a trade and your entries and strikes matter. Buy low and wait if you don

Back in a day or two the sentiments from the media were extremely bullish. Although, the big picture was clear that we've been in a stable downward trend. These media tried their best to convince people to buy and create a fomo, claimed we already hit the bottom, and this is a good opportunity/ last chance to buy. From my experience stay away from these crypto media will benefit you the most, or at least watch them as entertainment as they usually self proclaim, don't take anything seriously at all. Because most of the time they just want to manipulate the retails, and they know shit about fuck what they're doing

Here's the article about the inherent dangers of longterm high growth holds ("we're still early") in an environment of rising interest rates: https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-etf-what-a-bubble-looks-like

We are early investors, and most crypto projects do not actually cash flow or create buy pressure for their coins. Many of us are speculating on future demands that could still be years away. This is incredibly risky, particularly if we over invest in the short term.

I encourage everyone to keep a double digit percent of your portfolio in stablecoins. Not only can you easily earn 20% APR, and beat the stock market without doing anything, but it gives you the ammo to DCA into large dips. It's good to have a portfolio where you can feel good, and even excited, when the market goes down.

Share your stablecoin Defi investment suggestions and advice below. Also, please comment and share your experience if you have ever used DeFi insurance.

Daily Chart

So interesting enough, we are holding up rather decently compared to other areas of the market. We have found some price support in this range as we approach the $130 line. Want to hear a sad note? If I had sold my XLNX at $230, I would have made more money than if the shares converted today. Soooo blahhhh thats the whole, hitting your price targets and sell. But I was trapped in taxes which I think is sort of bullshit.

At the end of the day its all about the MACRO condition and the concern here appears to be the spike in the 10 yr yield being up as high as its been in years. But the dirty secret of America is that we need to have low interest rates to function. We are hooked on them now and to be able to service our debt, we can't do that in a high interest rate environment. I doubt we see a 2% yield in the 10 year anytime soon. I think the Fed will find a reason to help stabilize the market some. Like it or not I just don't see us moving the 10 year much higher than this in the near term which suggests a bottom may be forming.

The Fed isn't going to want to suppress the spring buying season for real estate that begins in March/April when we already are having inventory issues so yes this is painful and it sucks but I do encourage people to dig their heels in and hold here if we can maintain this $130 level. The XLNX chart looks way worse than us and yesterday it set a new low so that is what I'm eyeing. That could be beginning to breakdown and drag us along with it or it could be that enthusiasm for the deal approval is waning a bit and people want to take profits in this tech sell-off.

Earnings are confirmed for 2/1 which is a little later than I expected so we might have a week or more before we start to see an earnings run-up for AMD which would be our next catalyst to drive us higher.

Hello traders, we came into Monday knowing we may have some more to give to the down side, which meant we would have to lean more on feel of the market than levels. We finally got enough of a capitulation but wait... The market is playing chicken with the fed, who will blink first during this week of worry. Normally I would say we can get a temporary bounce under way but because we have fed speak this week and any number of market makers could be trying to prove a point by tanking the market to get the feds attention, we have to take it a moment at a time, because this could be a holding pattern. By holding pattern, I mean we could consolidate over huge ranges while we wait on the fed speak. In the analogies that I use as the market being a person running, when the running is being done by the larger time frames what often is seen as wild ranges is usually consolidation on a larger time frame. If you are not already positioned this area will be very dangerous to trade because of how rapid we could go from one end of the range to the next. Expanded the view out to the weekly I don’t think we have the temporary bottom in yet however I think the fed looms large over trading this week kind of giving a pause or break from the algorithmic fall. Avoid the jack and queen support areas if possible because if you buy or sell in this range it will be an invitation to get ripped apart in the back and forth. I f you must take positions before the fed make sure it is a defined risk position and you are ok with having a greater chance of losing it whatever it is. Side note apple seems to be trying to hold 156 support for what could turn out to be a bullish day meaning closing above 161.62. Will give a little more focus on apple as we get closer to earnings.

Key levels to watch for today... Resistance (jack)434, (queen)437-439 and (king)442-445 area. Support (jack)431-429, (queen)425-420 and (King)416-410.  In order for a bounce to gain traction it has to get above 434 today. Also because of the volatility it is going to make differentiating day types very hard. Today's scenarios:

1. Expansive Range Day structure. We could look to set a decision area/ upward boundary around the jack or queen resistance area before chopping lower back towards lows around 420 then trying to push the upper boundary again.

2. Trend day Down we open gap down and give a halfhearted try to close the gap. We find resistance on or before 439.84 then begin the downtrend for the morning. W

Here we go

Down we gooooooooooooo! Where we stop no body knows. VIX is the only rocket out there as treasury yields continue to hammer the tech sector. It has bled over to the Tech heavy SP as well. We were looking for some support at the $130 level but early morning action looks like we are going to fall below that and I gotta say this chart looks ugly allllll the way down to $120. But do ya know what the great thing is about LEAPs and stocks???

Yea major portions of my account have shed 25% of their value from the top, but I still own exactly what I owned 2 weeks ago. Nothing is expiring. The value might be down but I've got all the time in the world. This is why I don't like buying OTM options with short term time horizons or even like 3-4 month time horizons. "TIME IN THE MARKET IS BETTER THAN TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET"

So for me I'm in selling calls mode. I'm looking to continue to sell calls as long as this goes and close them whenever I hit a 50-75% profit. Gotta stay nimble and don't try to hold your short calls to expiration. Take your money off the table and buy them back for pennies on the dollar. Then re-adjust and open another one. Its slow running here but this is my logic with it:

-Bear markets give you an opportunity to take some quick profits by selling calls against your positions. Take some of those option premiums and sit on the cash to build up some reserves. Then get ready to let it rip when the bounce comes.

-No one knows where the actual bottom is until its already happened. So when we get a bounce, its going to be hard and fast. So staying nimble is going to be key here. You don't want to sell long term options and get screwed when this reverses.

Now I'm not saying this about all tech but for the Semi Sector, the macro picture has not changed. The positive market cycle and catalyst are all still there. Look at TSMC #s and see. What is going to hurt is EXTREMELY OVER VALUED pre-revenue tech companies. We aren't that. We have sales. We have profits. So I expect us to find some support sooner than some of the other speculative areas of the market. And get set bc this is a buying opportunity.

I'm still not ready to sell calls against my XLNX shares bc of how illiquid the options can be. But we are nearing my original cost basis for them sooooo I might have to dip i

Here's the Chart

https://preview.redd.it/i2zkllmhq9a81.png?width=1550&format=png&auto=webp&s=21d4e221c4f979fe476492a42446943918e9ba86

Okay so interesting enough yesterday was a wild ride. I have in-laws in town so I'm not able to really participate in the discussion as much as I would like. But I'm really interested in that RSI bounce we had yesterday at the bottom of the chart. We hit hard off of that bottom trendline and then just went flat.

As usual tech got ahead of itself and appears to have oversold a bit and now they are trying to reclaim some of the buying opportunities that exist out there. We still haven't hit our "hold the line" of $130 support which is the final trench of support that exists on this chart. So interesting enough that if we book some support here and create a new support zone that is officially higher than that $130 support then what we have forming here is a really nice Rising wedge pattern with a high of the $164 and higher lows. It looks like it could be a really really elongated wedge pattern so the effect of this initial earnings might give us a head fake or to but return us back to this overall trend while we wait for a true breakout catalyst or breakdown catalyst.

Now if we continue to sell off here then we could breakdown here and we will be officially into a new downtrend which might not bottom out until $120 which UGGGGH would be horrible. But for those of you looking for LEAP opportunities, that would be your best window to get them. Prepare for how to position yourself to take advantage breakdowns with positive moves and you find out that you can actually start to look forward to a breakdown in share price a bit.

If you are a long term holder of the stock, then selling off a bit isn't exactly a problem. Its the opportunity to add to your position and gives you an entry to buy the dip. If we are going to continue this flag pattern we are in then I wouldn't be looking to add any LEAPS in this area bc we definitely could breakdown. But if we do fall, I don't see much support all the way down to $120 which would be a GREAT chance to buy some $100 LEAPs. RSI would probably bottom out at around that $120 level too so all the indicators would be signaling buy buy buy. I don't think that tech really is has much further to go. The rate hikes and fed movement definitely has given us a big hair cut and I could see more on the horizon. High Beta stocks like us will get it worse than others. Bu

As many of you seemingly enjoyed my other analysis I did earlier today, I thought I'd share this with you as well. In my first post, I analyzed how many coins from the top 200 of the peak of the bull run in 2017 survive to this day and how they developed.

But what if you didn't buy at the top, but if you waited until prices dropped and somehow managed to buy the bottom? Is it still likely that your coins died during the remainder of the bear market or did everything go up after that? Are those that are looking forward to the bear to DCA rightly doing so, or should they be worried?

I choose December 16th 2018 - almost exactly 3 years ago - as the bottom, as BTC reached it's lowest price during the bear market on that day, other coins, of course, had lower lows on other days. I again scraped the top 200 on that day and checked how they developed until today. As you can imagine, things look quite a bit different than my other analysis. Looking at the same type of visualisation as before, you can see that things are looking MUCH better now.

• 29 out of 200 coins are now worth more than 10 times what they were worth 3 years ago
• 123 out of 200 coins are now worth more than 3 years ago
• 55 out of 200 coins are now worth less than half of what they were worth back then
• 30 out of 200 coins are now worth less than 10% of what they were worth back then, 20 of those are dead - meaning that most coins that died or went down a ton did so rather early in the bear market. Those which stuck around until it bottomed most likely survived.
• coins that already had a higher market cap back then definitely performed better. Every single non-stablecoin until # 39 (!) went up, the best performing coins were all in or close to the top 100, almost exclusively coins outside of the top 100 died
• again, BNB is the best performing coin, it's up x119, followed by THETA, LINK and DOGE
• XLM performed bad as a stablecoin since then and went x2.8 instead

But you should compare alts to BTC and ETH, not USD!! ugh, okay, if you insist:

• BTC went up x 14.9, 23 other coins outperformed BTC
• ETH went up x 46,9, 8 other coins outperformed ETH

I also labeled them in the plot, so you can see where they rank.

**Disclaimer: in hindsight, it is eas

Well personally that wasn't how I wanted to end the week. We ended up having to put our dog down which was tough. Thank you everyone for your kind words for real!

But back to stocks. This market is looking for a bottom and it is more about the MACRO picture than the individual stock performance IMHO. I'm concerned about the QQQ's looking like they are straddling this bottom and might be on their way printing a new "lower low" here. Also that damn VIX is up again above 20 which is the first warning sign for the market. I think we might have a little headwinds in the Microsoft deal to buy activision. Thats great for Microsoft long term but their stock is down for the acquisition. They are a big big component of most indices so it is going to weigh down on some of the tech market just for a little bit. Microsoft is buying for cash to its a pure play and overall good for the gaming ecosystem.

This could be very very good for us in a sense bc this is a BIG partner of us buying a premiere gaming studio. Now I did see the hilarious article that I thought was from the onion from good ole Pat Gelsinger saying that "AMD is in INTC rear view mirror now." The only way we are in their rear view mirror is if we are beginning to lap them lol.

So the $130 level has been pretty strong for us. if we can hold it and maintain from here then I think we could be starting to see a bottom form. If we break below then that is your sell signal for your calls. Sell Calls against your positions to pick up a little premium and make some quick cash. But set very very tight stops so you don't get burned on the bounceback

Daily Chart

Happy Happy New year to you and your family. So the shackles are off from the dreaded tax season and now we all have a little more flexibility to make some moves without fear that Uncle Sam is going to be taking our profits.

The chart doesn't look to great even though the open is up but I would say this could be deceiving for multiple reasons:

a- we've got a product announcement coming into CES and into earnings. So January is going to be a busy month for us with very good positive catalyst for us to keep us buoyed. The merger still could be approved quickly but as we start to see Lisa making the rounds of the new year, I think we will get an updated timeline which would give us a better indication if we are in "any day mode" or if "Q1 means it could be a while"

b- AMD has consistently been on hot stock charts for the new year. A lot of major firms will be looking to take some profits off the table in the new year and looking for alpha. AMD and the entire semi sector has been identified by a lot of companies as the growth train keepin on. In a rising rate environment and taper of purchases, there isn't going to be so much as "all stocks go up" mode. In fact were going to have to get more selective in where you deploy your money bc not everyone is going to have that same accelerated growth. There will be more choppy trades and more picking winners and losers. Well guess what, most people are picking AMD as a winner. So I could see some enthusiasm coming into the stock with greater inflows. I still think there is going to be most people will try to buy XLNX if they want AMD. So looking for the spread to narrow there as you see outsized buying in XLNX compared to AMD would be confirmation of this.

The Chart: The chart looks very blahhhhh. MACD looks like its gearing up for a bearish cross and we are far away from any level of strong support. I've noted on the chart support zones for RSI. I really really like how the 50 day EMA is straddling that support trendline from our chart. The 50 day EMA has been a great wave to ride and we stay up above that for the most part. So anything around that $138/$139 level is a very very big buy signal to me. The only reason we fall below that is a market meltdown type situation which I'm not seeing. MACRO conditions look like a little pullback is coming but nothing more than ranging. So I would be ready to pull the trigger if any incoming dip comes in. Just bc we have those positive catalyst coming i

Don’t worry I’m fine just pretty much I’m old and out of shape POS at the ripe old age of 36 lol. But I will be adding a chart and updating this post when I get home.

Interesting enough yesterday was the first signs of a bottom forming. I’m not sure that this is officially a bottom but the selling definitely got ahead of itself. VIX at the open was 22 and it’s crashed back down to 19 by EOD.

I think there is something to be said about computers/algorithmic trading in this area. They are programmed to look for bottoms to try to get ahead of the trade not wait for one to form. So I think we still might not be at the firm bottom here but this is initially a positive sign here. Further weakness isn’t a bad thing but that big green hammer we printed yesterday gives us hope that the pain is slowing.

I sold some calls yesterday morning and closed them out mid day for a nice little 50% profit. Tight stops with good entry and exit’s here if you want to play the game on any weakness. But be ready to buy your calls back quick if this shoots off hard and fast.

Social media influencers are making TAs like crazy and there are millions of people who are waiting for them to make a TA. They're telling you how ''insert a name here'' coin will make 10x. Dude, we all have seen that TAs are bullshit. No one can predict a bull or bear market. No one can predict a coin's price. Technical analysis is just like astrology. There is no different between TA and astrology.

I'll never understand why do so many people try to use it and why are there so many social media influencers and scammers who try to sell you on this stuff?

Most influencers who make TAs are just selling dreams to their fans at this point and that doesn't make sense to me.

Wellllll thank you very much Mr Goldman for taking the lead of the new year saying AMD is on its "best Ideas" list for 2022. Confirming what we've already known, this is hopefully the beginning of just a slew of upgrades and institutional investors piling in for us to stabilize the share price.

Today the chart is out the window bc of Product announcement at 10 EST. Generally these have been pretty big green candle days for us which could form the handle for our cup and handle pattern on the chart. If we fully get there then based off of measuring amplitude, we could see a breakout above the ATH up to even $180 before petering out.

So I will be on the lookout for that. Definitely in the cards with the back to back positive catalyst and then going into earnings. But first we've got to breakout. VIX did improve and while I truly believe the market is in overbought territory and due for a haircut, I think we are just going to keep humming this first week maybe more. I definitely agree that AMD is one of those high flying stocks that is going to take accelerated losses if the market trims itself. So I definitely am looking for a position of strength to sell calls into.

CES is going to give us some clarity on XLNX merger. I haven't really seen Lisa making the rounds about approval and she definitely is going to try to keep the focus on the new product lineup. This was one of the reasons that she wanted the merger tied up before this. We are going to lose the plot a bit on some of the new products as the press is going to want to know about merger approval and even wonder if AMD/XLNX collaborative designs will have to be pushes back. So while I'm expecting a bump from CES, I'm not expecting it to be as big as years past.

The market moves on news and unless Lisa really channels her inner Steve Jobs (honestly not who she is) then I think we are going to get a muted response to new chip designs regardless of what she announces. Biggest thing we need for a win is to make sure that we are continuing to push development of existing Zen Architecture while INTC still flounders. Gelsinger hasn't been there long enough for them to truly revolutionize anything so expect announcement from them on a product that they say works better than AMD under high suspect very particular conditions that they have to configure in order to get the results they want. As long as we get that then long term horizon, I think we will be just fine and see a repeat of last

So yesterday was interesting. The market has been selling off HARD in tech with a sharp rise in the 10 yr due to aggressive rate hike predictions from the big banks. Then we had good ole Uncle Jerome come on out and he cut a much more dovish tone than we've heard before. But the Fed doesn't have a king maker. They do things as a group. Yes he's the lead but he sounds like the King Dove and there are some other hawks circling already within the Fed. So volatility like this with snap backs is going to continue I would say into the future until we actually start seeing what they are going to do.

Remember the big Fed concern was that they were going to start selling assets which was quick and hard but probably a way to try to capture all of that cash sitting on the sidelines. Yesterday Powell said they hadn't set any concrete dates which is odd bc I thought we did have some semi-firm dates. But the king dove has spoken and sounds like he's a little spooked by the major selloffs in tech. So the ultimate stock whisperer wants to get things down a bit.

Now when we broke below the 50 day EMA I was concerned that we were going to have some difficulty getting back above that level with the overall MACRO picture. But it looks like we are going to gap open at like the $139 level so that won't be a problem. But I am concerned that the shape of the 50 day EMA does look like it is starting to head down since we hit the top back in November. Ultimately we are in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows being printed. I am optimistic that this $130 level appears to have really good support for us. We traded below that level two days ago for the first time before we printed the day back up and I'm eyeing that level as a support zone.

If we can hold that level then we will have this massive bull flag pattern forming that could honestly stretch out into Q2 without a breakout. The positive catalyst continue for this stock and semis in general. Picking up a couple of nice upgrades here and there is nice but really its just the street adjusting its price relative to current AMD SP. You can't be telling people that your stock pick is a price point of $125 when we are way above that. No client is going to follow your ideas if there is no money to be made. So them putting in some upside is great for us with SP targets of $155. But its not like some of the outsized calls we've seen where people are predicting going from $80-$145.

Volume has also ticked u

Chart

Soooooo I'm about to start a 6 hour long meeting so yay me so I gotta keep this short. Remember how yesterday I said volatility was going to be the name of the game? Well thats the result of yesterdays action. A very uninspiring session where the market did a healthy recovery but we lagged. It could be due to the nature of AMD having to "re-file" some of their merger approval docs past the 1/11 date, could just be that 50 day EMA is proving a sticky point of resistance.

I do agree that we are going to range somewhere within the max pain trade of 135-140. Not a bad window to see if you can find a iron butterfly for cheap just incase it crashes out one way or the other. Today looks like an identical setup as yesterday. Gap up at the open and we will see if we can hold it. If not, we might just see that decreasing volume result in selling until we get our earnings runup which should start kicking in a week out so next week.

Good lock sorry to keep this brief

Ooooof Hello 10 yr T-Bill. The sharp rise in Treasuries in line with forecasted rate hikes that are expected to begin sooner than expected is putting A LOT of pressure on growth stocks. We are seeing a tech heavy portfolio get creamed while value stocks are holding strong and even moving up. My KO shares are at like ATH's oddly enough.

Our chart broke out and we are not going to get the cup and handle pattern we were looking for. So instead, I'm more watching how far we drop today. I'm eyeing that 50 day EMA which is hugging our bottom trendline. I think that is our entry point if we dip there. I might even consider a scalp trade with some monthlies to play the bounce. Anything below that is our buy zone we are looking for to add some strength and pick up some shares at a discount.

A total share collapse would be us falling all the way down and to the $130 range but I'm looking for support for $139ish in order to show that this trend is still in play here for us. I know yesterday was brutal but at the end of the day my swing trader algo didn't actually turn red. It was for part of the day but ultimately it recovered towards the end of the day to show that we are still in our uptrend and this can be viewed as ranging. So we will have to see what happens.

Side note: I really really have been loving the end of day summaries that u/Coyote_Tex and now u/AgCoin are doing. I think they are really good capstones to sort of serve to book ends of these daily discussions. I kinda have been throwing out how I think the stock is going to behave and they recap a bit on what Actually happened and I think its INCREDIBLY valuable. So hats off to them for really creating something that I think we all can benefit greatly from!

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Just released the market analysis for Video game industry: https://spectacleinvesting.com/2022/01/02/the-video-game-market-in-2022/

TLDR: Video game market is bigger than sports industry and music combined. Current trends are outlined in the post but future trends will be dominated by blockchain gaming, AI and VR/AR. Let me know what you think!

Okay so if we are holding true to other mergers and their timeline, we should be in crunch time mode with approval coming in the next 24 hours. Now I'm not saying that if we don't hear anything that the deal is dead but a delay here would kinda suck for us.

In theory we should see a breakdown of our share price upon completion of the merger simply bc there is going to be soo much new shares issued and merger arbitragers will be looking to take money off the table. So for this to happen in the middle of a market rally would be a great thing for us by keeping our shares supported. If there is an early year trimming of stocks or a pullback then it could accelerate our losses as more and more people try to pile into the selling trade. It could get ugly real quick as people try to panic sell. Arbitragers would prefer to sell into strength as well to get maximum value for their shares as well so I would honestly prefer it to happen sooner rather than later.

I know some of you were identifying a cup and handle pattern that definitely could be forming. We are almost back at the lip for the fully formed cup but we haven't seen the handle yet. Generally, you see a cup and handle or an inverted cup and handle pattern. But its not the same pattern if the handle comes first. So that initial pop in the beginning of November isn't really the beginning of the handle IMHO. The bigger concern that I'm seeing is Head and Shoulders pattern with a neck line that is trending down showing weakness.

Truly it all depends on this final shoulder. So if we can find some strength going into this here and get a higher shoulder to break this pattern then we could be looking for a breakout or a consolidation trade. But if we start to fade here, it could get ugly real quick. Even a blowout earnings number wouldn't save us from middling numbers. Kinda like what happened last Q1 earnings call. We went into the call with weakness, posted blowout numbers, and stock continued to tank day after. RSI isn't giving me much as we are in this free zone right now waiting for a new trendline to form. Anything is possible in this range.

So don't despair bc any pull back is going to be your LAST buying opportunity for LEAPs. Once merger is done, then share price and valuation is going to support a much bigger move for us next year as long as the market holds up. So if you are wondering when to buy leaps, well you could be getting your final opportunity coming up. If it happens

I love data and very curious to what extent how the common saying like "Time in the market beats timing in the market" and "Be greedy when others are fearful and vice versa" are true. I also want to see the power of a DCA plan. Imagine just putting $10 a day for a couple of years and see the exponential growth. This analysis will test all of these theories using quite a popular market indicator - Fear & Greed index. Please note that the oldest data for this index I could find is from 01 Feb 2018 - long enough to see how it goes.

1. A regular $10 a day DCA plan into Bitcoin - return 545%

This plan is to purchase $10 worth of Bitcoin daily regardless of market sentiment, spending $13,880 across 3 years and 10 months so far. You can see the growth of the portfolio overtime.

As we can see, the power of regularity, capital gains and compounding effect have turned a vanilla $10 a day BTC DCA plan into almost $90,000.

I have done a similar plan for S&P500 and the portfolio is worth around $20,500.

2. Attempt to time the market using the Fear & Greed index - plan A

This method also runs on the basis of a DCA plan, but adjusts the DCA day. It skips the day when the Fear & Greed index shows "Extreme Greed", "Greed" or "Neutral". Underspent amounts are accumulated and purchases resume immediately when the market returns to "Fear". The daily spending is still $10 and total spending would be the same, $13,880.

For example, consider the following 7 days:

This is an attempt to time the market, \"be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy\". Sounds legit, right? But does that work like that? Let's see.

Ironically this adjusted plan has lower returns than a vanilla, simple DCA original plan.

Marked difference could only be visually noticeable since Jan 2021

You may ask why? Two things I can think of: (1) the F&G index is not perfect and (2) this method lacks regularity, even though the total sum remains the same. More on that when we draw a conclusion.

**3. Attempt to time the market AND maintain regularity - plan

Daily Chart

Quad Witching day so anything is possible here. Volatility is going to be crazy here so lets see what happens. Yesterday we looked ready to rip at the open but as the market started to digest the Fed meetings and Adobe #s made it appear cloud software might be in danger were sort of a double whammy. The market put pressure on tech and never took its neck off.

So for us the biggest concern we have here is that the semi sector has been on a KILLER run but has not yes formed a real consolidation pattern here. So all of these runs could be given up and we could very well go back to the bull flag pattern that we broke out of in October. That would be this breakout returning to the mean. I personally don think that is going to happen.

So today with quad witching you gotta expect that people will be looking to sell their calls that they the money. There will be a LOT of funny business as people try to move stock in and out around a specific price point. I'm looking to see if that $135 level holds for the 50 day. If we fall through there then it can be a LONG LONG way down to $120. We might have a minor stop at $130. Volume decreased yesterday but we still put in a higher low. There is no way we were going to hold onto 8% gains from one day. We have to give them back at some point.

So if we form support again here on the 50 day EMA then we are in business. If we fall here then I gotta be honest that this is going to be a great buying opportunity. XLNX definitely is the bigger target for manipulation here as people play with the stock. People will be selling XLNX and buying back their AMD shorts to cover which will create an increase spread. This could be a good opportunity to pick up some shares if the spread grows.

Side Note: I know randomly there have been some posts on here where random people have attacked this sub and my writing, and this little sub community we've got. And I just want to say thank you to everyone who has been defending this endeavor. I am thankful you are here and I am thankful for your contributions to the discussion!!!!

https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/growing-idaho/the-most-popular-idaho-jobs-cant-afford-fair-market-rent/277-26d66e4b-505d-4287-9ca7-7da59ea21035

So now let's wait for the markets to jump back up. We've seen such markets dropping before. Even the 10 year treasuries dropped to offer lower yield.

So you're in cash sold out in panic. Now what do you do with the cash? Sit on it under the bed...? Inflation is everywhere eating your cash while you sleep...

Yes we all hate seeing drops... But let's look at the bigger picture here:

So nVidia's dropped from $350 to $230... It needs 50% gains from here to get back to it's all time high..

Yes AMD's dropped from $165 to $120... That's less drop than nVidia's actually as it needs just 35% gains to get back to its all time high...

Even bitcoins dropped from $69K to $36K ... It almost needs 100% gains to get back to all time high...!

Treasuries dropped 5% yesterday... A lot for such fraction of a percent usual moves especially as equities are down...

Gold dropped Fri too, it didn't move from its $1800 mark much though it was about $2000 all time high in Aug ... Needs about 10% to gain to get back to that but it's interesting all the cash selling equities didn't go to gold otherwise the price would have jumped Fri, it actually was in the red too...!

Nasdaq dropped 2% yesterday.. To give you an idea it's across the board.. it dropped from $16.2K to $13.7 needs 20% gain to get back to its all time high..

Indeed Xilinx has gained yesterday to $188 but that's on rumors Chinese had approved.. still while volume was 6M, 3X the usual daily average, I don't think these rumors are true because if someone really knows, you would have seen way higher volume... Free money if it's approved within days no...? This rumor has contributed to AMD's losses as the arbitrage gap has narrowed. But it's still down from $240 all time high, needs about 15% gain to get back there, less than others because of the arbitrage but still down too...

And don't forget the effects of massive January 21st options expiring Friday which is a leaps Friday sold over 2 years ago, with massive contracts bets accross all markets. Such could impact prices weeks ahead not just the last Fri as casino houses errr hedge funds drive PPS down to avoid being called at a loss...

So with that we're heading to next week. Options Friday behind us, Intel's and Xilinx's ERs on the 26th, and.... A lot of cash sitting on the side losing inflation daily...

So while we all hurt, I'm confident AMD's ER will be stellar with amazing revenue growth outlook for 2022. Regardless of Xilinx's merger, all this cash out

They have a dedicated “Overview” section with everything from graphs to Pie-charts whereas WazirX doesn’t give any analysis or summary of the market movements which is very informative and not often found in crypto trading platforms .

if btc continues to drop i think we could see levels as low 4 cents. btc is still bottom of bollering bands so more drops could be expected, save your money and get to ready to buy the dip. this is not financial advise. if you are not sure when to invest you might prefer to average out your trades.

Gotta love that MACD Cross!!! We got a massive green candle yesterday on honestly pretty blah volume when you look at it. To me that is telling me that there were buyers galore and almost no selling going on. People wanted to get the stock and they didn't care about when or for how much. So they wanted to be positioned as the MACRO condition continues to improve by having a seat at the table for the runners.

Right now that is us and NVDA and other chip stocks. Which I LOVVVVE btw. As we start approaching ATHs, that is a great maximum profit setup for my XLNX shares. Technically if merger was to happen today, right now, those XLNX shares would jump to $266 which would be SOOOO nice for me.

So today I'm watching this range. I know that VIX has started to calm down which I like but this area last time formed some sticky resistance for us. If we just power through it then I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't take out the ATH and set a new level. RSI still has a LONG LONG way to go before we reach overbought so this thing has some legs. I wouldn't count it out yet. But if things start to peter out. It would be around this level. This is the warning level where we might see some profit taking coming back on board. So if we see a classic double top pattern form or even a little head and shoulders pattern, this setup could spell some trouble for Early next year.

Might be a prudent thought to start planning to take profits when you can. I'm not saying that you should sell your entire position but perhaps next year you want to consider selling like a 20% portion to just take some profits if this turns ugly

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The anomalis price increase in $PIXY in recent days caught my attention, and the further I went down the rabbit hole. I think this thing is gonna go for a run. Lets take a look at some technical indicators.

First want to use the history of this stock at this exact time of year as a bit of a bench mark. Below is the hourly time frame chart from the end of December into late January of 2021.

On the 4th of January 21 $PIXY traded at $2.43

On the 26th of January $PIXY reached a high of $4.65

Here is a chart showing what happened

$PIXY Jan 2021 run

Recent price action has let me to believe that $PIXY is squaring off for another bull run, but this time is different. Ill get into that in a few minutes, but check this out.

Weekly time frame TSI True Strength indicator.

This indicates a strong change is about to happen in the long term downtrend of the stock. Once that blue line jumps above, RED turns to GREEN and this goes running. The last time this happened was in that time frame I posted above, January 2021.

$PIXY Weekly TSI chart

Lets look at some recent price action.

$PIXY 1 30 min chart

This chart shows recent price action in $PIXY stock but it DOES NOT provide all the data. Why? because something very interesting happened during a wild pre market trading session. If you look at a weekly chart it will tell you the stock is up about 50% on the week. But at around 4:30 am last Wednesday morning it was topping out around $2.86 and was up like 275%.

Few people witnessed this, virtually no one posted about it, and whats more interesting is that this stock has a little something called an OPTIONS CHAIN that ironically could not trade at that time.

So you have a stock that ran +275% virtually un noticed and not shown on a chart and at a time where the only thing traded was SHARES.

This leads me to believe that potentially someone was accumulating a LOT of shares under the cover of pre market, in anticipation of something thats about to happen.

I'm not really a huge user or fan of Ortex, I prefer looking at technicals, but for the

Happy New Year everyone!! :)

The US today released multiple sets of important data (from Trading Economics).

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Unemployment was better than expected (3.9%) vs 4.1% expected. A few days back, when the Federal Reserve Minutes was released, NASDAQ dropped a whopping 3.3% or so. This was because the Federal Reserve said they might even consider a March rate hike, and some were worried about inflation.

With Omicron seemingly less problematic - UK still being cautious but relatively accomodative, Australia did reinstate some restrictions (no nightclubs, no signing, dancing etc), but most countries seem to understand Omicron is less virulent, except it can cause hospitalisations to increase dramatically; the US's situation might be slightly different, since comorbidities and other high rates of pre-existing conditions can amplify death rates.

With this in mind, the Federal Reserve last month I predicted will take a cautious approach to Omicron (https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rgx1qg/federal_reserve_day_my_predictions_on_powells/). However, with Omicron not causing "too much" (too much can be relative, but relative to say Delta), trouble, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum unemployment will be changed - ie they will now care more about inflation, and less on unemployment.

The data shows it - unemployment decreased more than expectations (3.9%) vs 4.1%. This further shows maximum unemployment is NOT an issue now (meaning the Fed will concentrate on inflation).

However, fascinatingly, other measures are more better for markets - Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs) was LOWER than expected - ie less new hiring. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-2021-jobs-report-labor-department-unemployment-usa-192453058.html shows a slowdown in hiring (200K hires vs 400K expected).

The participation rate did not budge a lot - it's stuck at 61.9%. Companies have increased wages more than expected 0.6% vs 0.4% since last month. This means companies have increased wages.

However therein lies the problem for the Fed - Participation rate is very slowly increasing. It's staggeringly low

So I know I'm late but I really wanted to see how the open went for us after the news dropped yesterday that deal will not be complete this year. IMHO this is a big miss for Lisa Su. I think it would have been better if they had disclosed this a little earlier but she was quoted I think just a week ago saying we were still on track and she expected it to close by the end of the year. It just makes me question how much "insider knowledge" with the CCP the board has.

Now at the end of the day I still think that this deal closes. There is no reason for it not to. But saying Q1 sort of pushes the date back to whenever. It could happen early on in the year or this could drag on for months. We just don't know for sure. I know there was A LOT of call buying that was taking place so that trade seems to fizzle out. There is almost zero liquidity in the XLNX option market at this point as people try to figure out where we go.

I'm wondering if we are going to see actually some price improvement in AMD. If people are unsure the timeline for the deal to close, I can see some people taking profits in January of their XLNX shares which have been on a tear. If they are merger arbitragers then they will probably buy back their AMD shorts. Releasing some of this short pressure might give us a little room to run especially going into a product announcement + CES.

So my initial gameplan was to expect AMD to pull back after deal closing and consolidate a bit. But now honestly, I could see this thing popping off as some of the short pressure releases. I'm very interested to see where we go from here.

I will see you guys on the other side of the new year and I hope everyone and their families remains safe!!!!! Either way we have an Exciting year ahead of us for anyone who holds AMD stock for sure.

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