Good Evening Apes,

Welcome all new members to the $BBIG Fam. If you have missed out on some of my previous DD's, here's one in Particular that I believe you all should check out that talks about Citadel and Co being long on $BBIG over here.

If you missed out on my last Wyckoff Analysis, it can be seen here

There's going to be a HUGE Twitter Space Call taking place tommorow at 3:30 PM EST time.

[EDIT]: ** CHANGED LINK** as the host got changed to a Lauchlin who has a more reliable Internet Connection. Changed Also Time...It's 2 hours Earlier starting at 3:30pm EST.

Reminder Link for those that want to set a reminder and not miss the space call --- For those of you who don't know what a Twitter Space call is(it's essentially a conference phone call that you can listen in on and listen to a live conversation that is taking place). Great place for bulls to share DD amongst each other and to network within the community. These space calls have been happening on a nightly/daily basis, but this ONE is going to be one that you guys don't want to miss out on as all the bulls are going to be in this call including

• TRUExDemon
• IamMrRic
• Aaron_529
• Wallstreet Viking
• Luckiest Sevens
• HoneyBadger6
• Lauchlin Buford
• Andreas Ernesto
• And of of course, yours truly(I can't gaurantee my attendance will be there because of my busy schedule, but I'll be doing my damn best to try and show up)

I highly recomend any BRAND NEW and OG Ape to Join and listen in on the call as it's going to be all about your favorite stock $BBIG

Having said all that, let's move on to the Technical Analysis for next week starting off with Wyckoff.

Here's a quick update on Wyckoff on where I see us potentially going:

Wyckoff Macro Analysis on the weekly Chart

Below is a picture highlighted where I believe we are in the Accumulatio

I’ve tried to learn technical analysis and the different patterns of stock charts. There’s obviously thousands of courses and online videos about this sort of thing. But it seems that almost none of these patterns can be used sustainably over long periods of time, as external news events always triumph over any chart reading.

The conclusion I have come to is that technical analysis is no different than astrology. It’s much better to look at the fundamentals of a business and it’s growth potential than to try and guess the next stock price based on some lines on a chart.

The only question I have is: why do so many people try to use it and why are there so many fake YouTubers and scammers who try to sell you on this stuff?

So as you may already know... Bitcoin dipped a little, which of course isn't the first time in cryptocurrency history. As a crypto veteran (hodling since November 2021) I'm still very bullish right so I figured doing some technical analysis for my fellow r/cryptocurrency members. I came up with the 'Camel Theory'. Bear with me (no pun intended).

The 1 day chart

https://preview.redd.it/d3yzzt5eq1a81.jpg?width=1530&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c2a63be9fd6bd04dec4585f00599b61cd25c54d

As you can see here, these were critical support points for the last few days.

The 1 week chart

https://preview.redd.it/5uld34moq1a81.jpg?width=1528&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4269814696faac50152ca408b3191fd04d18ec15

At this point you can't really tell what a resistance or support zone is anymore. I drew some lines to pretend to know what I'm doing.

The 1 month chart

https://preview.redd.it/3bxl7e95r1a81.jpg?width=1522&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f3191010ae205a92e98adff7ba72652784eeedb

OK so these two horizontal lines clearly are resistance points. Cool huh. Bitcoin seems to go up and down.

The 1 year chart

https://preview.redd.it/ttrxfv0fr1a81.jpg?width=1526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b65f0dd44aa9806140e68e94203bec69c8ee7ea8

So this is the Camel Theory I was talking about. Please note: this is still just a theory I am working on. I am not sure if it will work out. But according to this theory, Bitcoin will go up again anytime this year. The 1 year chart has two peaks. The two humps on the camel's back resembles these two peaks. It's not rocket science.

Feel free to ask me any questions about this theory and I'll do my best to answer them. Bottomline is that this isn't the first time Bitcoin is dipping and we shouldn't panic. Some of you asked for a dip... well... here it is. And if people are in for the long haul... this dip shouldn't worry you at all.

I was looking at TradingView feed of Technical Analysis charlatans. I wondered how many twits, shouts and chart-pics have been created by so called "Technical Analysts" that show how, after they draw their lines on the price charts, they can show that the price is going [UP] or [DOWN]... Would you find it funny to post a subreddit where people post the "expectation vs reality" of Technical Analysis posts containing charts?

EDIT: Yay! I didn't imagine this would get so much traction. Thanks to u/noquarter53 for suggesting the name /r/thisisbullish !! Feel free to start posting funny/ridiculous "Technical Analysis" befre and afters . I'll add some later :-)

Alright autists, this post is only for those of you who were around for the crash in Feb/March 2020. The rest of you can go bag hold more RBLX and GME shares.

So one of the big warning signs of a massive crash is a string of hindenburg omen, we had it right prior to the crash in Feb/March of 2020. Again, this is not the a definitive warning, as it has given many false positives such as in March 2021, and Nov 2020 Aug 2020, and May 2020. But there is more.

https://preview.redd.it/ad5qq4x6sob81.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=07098e28cc6c5944d7dde719b2d959e29001dd9e

Another thing to look at is breath of the market. We know that the breadth of the market is horrible, with something like 40% of NASDAQ down 50% for 2021. The entire stock market is held up by Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. The only times breadth was this terrible was in 2000, Nov 2018, Feb 2020 and now in Jan 2022.

https://preview.redd.it/xs6q6t8ptob81.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=cefe6ce2eb7e5d86f3b03fb7c6771756706181bb

The final nail in the coffin is the VIX. In Feb 2020, you had a falling wedge in the VIX followed by a breakout before spiking to close to 80 in March.

https://preview.redd.it/uf9wu82ouob81.png?width=2439&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6569ba7c5cbeab5a8a138a75d329097cb67aaad

A similar setup is happening today. Then there is the narrative, the market kept ignoring Covid which was baffling institutional investors going into Feb 2020, despite the rapid spread and the original variant having something like a 2-3% mortality rate. The same thing is happening today. The Fed signaled it was going to end QE and hike rates, but the market largely shrugged it off for a full month. Meanwhile China, the second largest economy where 1/3 of GDP is dependent on housing construction is rolling over and Russia is trying to invade Ukraine (which will send oil to $100+). Investors are ignoring all of this information.

https://preview.redd.it/mqs98vnxuob81.png?width=2448&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6b43b410c4a24e255a92c0f82fe2b538f241dfe

All of this is pointing towards a massive crash in the next couple of months. but you may counter, the fed won't let markets crash. If it tanks 10%, the fed will cave and give up on rate hikes and will start QE again and pump this market up like its 2020 again. The problem with this argument is that it makes a large assumption that the rise in stock market shares are driven by the fed,

Deal Approval

Uggggh Deal approval could not come at a worse time. There really wasn't much to make on the merger arb with AMD at these low prices. Thats why entry back into XLNX mattered. In fact I think that we might see an initial bump just for the news and earnings but ultimately we will see the stock fall below that $110 support line just bc of the stock dilution. The market right now is still trying to digest a very MEHHHHHHHH fed call that didn't really give us concrete answers either way. So stock dilution at this time could see us crash all the way to the $100 level.

I hope I'm wrong but you can never be too certain in a chop trade like this. Volume has been pretty high for these periods since Monday showing that there is A LOT of churn. People are being very selective with their entries and taking profits wherever they can. Scalpers are out in droves looking to shave a few pennies here and there and its playing havoc with prices. We are in oversold from an RSI standpoint but this approval throws everything into turmoil.

The market seems to be rewarding companies that are able to issue strong forward guidance so now I'm wondering if Lisa's comments for this earnings are going to include XLNX roadmap or if they will make it a separate thing after they have had some time to digest what just happened. But getting some of that roadmap could be key to pull us from the much of a very mehhhh market and put us on a supercharge path.

If you are looking to buy AMD I gotta say it looks pretty attractive at these levels to me. You are getting it at a $110 level which has been very very good to us so far and you just got it with an additional BILLION in sales now. Cash flows matter right now more to the market than technicals. While Algos trade off of technical analysis cash flows is one of the big defining factors that is separating the winners from the losers in this market right now.

So yes I'm super happy that we got deal approval. I'm super sad that we couldn't maximize it to make the most profit possible. I was hoping we could get back to some level of strength and this would help us push through to new highs. But I think it will fortify the base for us and we might not fall too far below. Any trips down below $110 in the coming days I would be buying shares for sure. Volatility is still pretty high

This is going to get rough

It looks like today we are going to gap down below the 200 day EMA and same thing on NVDA. Anything tech related is under that 200 day EMA except XLNX which is being propped up by the specter of a close which isn't going to happen until end of Feb at the earliest I believe.

We are officially in correction mode in half my watchlist. My long hold positions are getting creamed, and I've given up A LOT of my gains so far. But I'm sitting real pretty with liquidating my position for XLNX. I'm comfortable selling those 600 shares at a price of $195. I think all of this is healthy for the market and it is giving us a big opportunity to buy this dip. There really isn't anything we can do at this point until we get through the FOMC meeting.

So buying list is where I'm at now since I hope we are getting close to a bottom now:

I'm adjusting my price target for NVDA. I would like to buy now at around $215-$220 which I think I will get. I missed my fill on Friday by like 0.50 which is stupid to miss a buy for something so small. But i gotta say I think NVDA could see $200 soon which would be nuts

XLNX I'm buying at $170. I think this has been holding up mainly bc the deal and with deep discounts in AMD, people are going to start to lose the faith and take some losses. I think this has further south to go short term and people will sell here. If I can get it lower then I absolutely will. Would lovvvve to get back in at a $150 level that I originally bought in

MSFT is getting interesting for me. Around that $290 level I think we are getting very close to where I gotta scoop up some shares.

Most of the market is hovering on oversold so I gotta think a bottom is close from here. It's not going to be a 2008 meltdown to zero here. There is way too much capitalization and cash sitting on the sidelines. People are going to buy this dip and the RSI oversold bounce is still the best indicator of a market bottom out there

I watched Coding Jesus video on why technical analysis is bs. I agree that short term - medium term prices are random and searching for patterns for the sake of patterns is bs.

But for example, if the SPY is above the 30 day rsi of 40/100 and the 5 day EMA is above the 10 day EMA, I will enter a 50-30 delta call spread with expiration of 60 days. The exit conditions are either 40% profit target or max loss. When back-tested the strategy has a 80% wr with an avg return of 40% per trade based on risk and this has been true for the past 2 years. Would this be an example of technical analysis trading based off the RSI and EMA or a quantitative strategy based on historical and statistical probability?

I want to present the case we have a very high probability of a crash tomorrow based on technical indicators. Everything looks almost exactly similar to the market right before the Christmas rally on the December 20th. On that date, the market tanked almost 3%.

Today's market looks exactly like that. We had previously bounced weakly off the 50dma, forming a rising wedge. The rising wedge then broke down to a chart full of air pocket gaps on the way up.

Again, I am not saying this will happen for sure, but the set-up on the charts almost looks exactly like that. On 12/20, the vix spiked up to almost 28 and the SPX dropped close to 130 points.

https://preview.redd.it/nzhlwca6i6a81.png?width=1352&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdf789da962208964465f60e92d6192114b53696

Also, do you remember the VIX and GME correlation? Well take a look at GME.

TLDR: I got some 0d 4650 puts.

Update: RIP my 2k, was starting to happen and got pegged to death by the SF fed Daly right as the SPX was breaking down on the 50 dma and NDX was breaking down on the 100 dma. I still think it will happen in the next couple of days, so more money to be lost on puts next week.

Choppy Waters Ahead

So today looks like the beginning of the chop. We are going to see a lot of violent moves in either direction. Yesterday we officially hit the oversold area of RSI and we are looking to see some semblance of a bottom. This whipsaw action actually is pretty good for us long term as it indicates the market is trying to find its footing and find good entry points. Bad on your portfolio short term but good for us long term.

Now we all know today is all about the Fed and what they come back with but I think the market is expecting rate hike in March. It will be interesting to hear what else they have to say. I dont think this crash causes the Fed to change course which is fine bc they will realize just a lot of speculation has come out of the market but real value is still there. But them noting the recent volatility might give us an indication that they are still ready to strike a dovish tone when needed to save the market from a massive bear market. Inflation still represents the biggest threat to the economy so we need to be aggressive with it so we don't end up with something stupid like 20% interest rates in the future.

Rarely do I agree with Jim Cramer but I do agree with his statement making the rounds that this recent pain is the result of SPACs and IPO's last year. You had a TON of not ready for prime time companies going public to take advantage of the highly speculative market. They were ignoring the regular "kick the tires" IPO process bc they knew they didn't have much to show. All of those speculative stocks are literally trashed right now and that is definitely weighing on the market. Most good stocks are just right back to where they were at the beginning of October which is a fine place to be. The garbage stocks are at all time lows. A lot of money has been lost but its the market taking the dumb money.

Quality still wins out and I'm expecting us to have really solid earnings with growth in server sector. The market has rewarded good forward guidance and the only risk here is Lisa's policy of under-promising and over-delivering. The market is going to take any under-promising as a negative forward guidance which I don't think is a good thing to do. But we will just have to see.

The $110 level looks like a nice buy zone for this chop. I'm going to be looking at the $100

first sign of a bottom?

So I don't think we have finished selling yet but I gotta say that yesterdays reversal is a great sign for us. Shows that there is some big money sitting on the sidelines that feels we are starting to find some value in these levels. I think if anything, this selloff has shaken out a lot of the speculative "dumb money" which is for the most part healthy.

Looking at the chart we approached yesterday at the lows exactly where we left off in October of last year before we took off on a CRAZY speculative run. We all got caught up in it thinking this was unreal but the market always corrects itself at the end of the day. The reversal yesterday was very very interesting. A lot of stocks printed the exact same hammer pattern which is a reversal signal as AMD.

We were down SIGNIFICANTLY and finally hit that buy trigger for some big money. Money came rushing back in and VIX dropped. Could this be a bull trap to squeeze the last bit of money for the bulls? Sure but I'm comfortable with a mini bear market and maybe some sideways trading. Markets don't have to just go up to make money. Especially when you have the ability to sell covered calls.

AMD specifically didn't hit oversold but most of the market has either hit that level or is hovering just a few points above that level. Seeing buyers wake up when some individual stocks were down almost double digits shows that the selling was getting WAY ahead of themselves. Rockafeller I think said: "when there is blood in the streets buy stock" and honestly that is great advice. I know it sucks bc no one wants to catch a falling knife but the truth is that you gotta pick an entry and go. You can't wait to see the bottom because it will already be too late once you see it.

Yesterday my order for NVDA filled at $210 which was fantastic. Picked up $100 shares and immediately sold a call for 250 strike for $4.75. So that call is up right now with the reversal but I'm making so much money off of the stock increase that I'm fine. I was honestly considering day trading NVDA and selling it for a quick $2k profit but I want to hold bc I think there is value here. Same thing with AMD. Anything below $110 is value and that would be a buy for me. I've re-positioned some of myself and used yesterday to do some selling and taking profits. I used the reversa

Yikes

So the chart looks pretty ugly. Looks like we now have no more support all the way down to $120 and then the 200 day EMA at $115 is next. Below that looks like $100. This looks like there is so much pain here. My swing trader algo officially turned bearish which is crazy that even with all of the recent selling it still was within reason for normal range. I might need to change the code bc it definitely seemed to lag a bit here.

So yesterday I did a thing: I sold out of my XLNX position. I'm not one of those people that preaches to everyone to hold the line while I'm selling out. So I'm being open and honest. I sold my 600 remaining XLNX shares at $194 yesterday. And I absolutely plan on buying back in but I think its going to go lower from here. I had an AVG cost basis of $149 for the shares so I made a GREAT profit. Could be leaving money on the table if we get approval soon but I don't think its going to happen for the following reasons:

-AMD had to re-file approval paperwork with US regulators. Now there is ZERO reason to expect that they won't get approval again but its easy to see that this is a potential speed bump to slow things down that means China has all the time in the world to continue to wait it out

-Lisa said by the end of the first quarter. All reports show that AMD has offered potential fixes to the very few problems Chinese regulators had and there is no reason for approval not to be granted. So why is it not being approved yet? What is this hold up? What is the big deal?

-I would argue this is political now. China is 100% focused on the Olympics which start in just a week and that is going to be a HUGE undertaking for the country in the age of Covid. I don't think they promise anything until they get through the Olympics. China cares soooo much about how it is viewed on the global stage that they are looking to pull this off without a hitch. We know that China ultimately has a very small group of people at the top making a majority of the decisions in a variety of industries so I would argue that expecting this to be approved as the nation switches its focus is going to Olympics means very little focus on this deal approval.

-If Olympics goes well and Xi is pleased then I think we get approval shortly after. But with different countries boycotting games with no diplom

Happy New Years Apes,

I truly hope all of you enjoyed your holiday time with family or close friends and got time to just rest and relax.

Disclaimer: This is not Financial Advise, please do your own DD and research, this is only my opinion and should only used for Entertainment purposes only!

Today I am going to review the Technical Indicators and make a prediction for this week. Before I begin, let's do a recap from my last prediction, one my last weekend update, which can be seen here .

Here were my predictions from last week if you didn't check out my last DD:

• Record Date EARLIEST announcement(In my opinion) should come out for aproximately after Jan.7th---I believe it makes more strategic sense for them to drop it on the week of Jan. 17th-Jan.21st because of the option chain.
• No PR Drop Next Monday morning, we stay trading within the $2.61-$3.09 Range and likely fade from $2.93 to the bottom end of the trading range until the PR drop comes.

As you all know, we never got any PR releases last week(many believe this is due to the company being in a quiete period). I've tapered my expectations last week and as predicted we would fall to the bottom end of the trading range and closed out at $2.38 (right below the trading range that I had previously stated $2.61-$3.09.

We are at a stage in the game where the main operator/hedgefund is testing the supply(selling pressure) to see how low they can get this price before bouncing it back up. I believe we are within a few pennies from the bottom here and here is why I think this:

https://preview.redd.it/e1ot5deigb981.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b4bad9ab1e345aaeb90bdfe2a3e4355c60c54cc

Since January---The low Prices on the chart read as follows:

$1.11

$1.95

$2.16

We are currently trading at $2.38

If we are continue to uptrend on the 3mo time frame and keep setting higher lows on the 3mo time frame, we should not break below $2.16, but we should likely test below $2.35 for the "Spring Zone"---basically the last checkstop before the price decides to rocketup.

Have a look at this beautiful chart:

https://preview.redd.it/xiszw27jgb981.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=554bc33afbe48fa169f00e6b78b888f846298bbe

There's Two Falling wedges you are looking at here: one is Pink, and the other is Orange. Falling Wedges are VERY bullish Signs o

All of the 'Last chance to buy before 100K' videos have stopped coming out lately, I can't imagine why.

If looking to past movements could really predict the future then casinos wouldn't give you cards to write down the winning roulette spins.

How many crossing double ball-bag indicators or lagging sixty-nine day moving averages have failed to predict this wee drop in the bucket. I can't wait to see how the gaggle of click-bait shooting turd polishers justify missing this.

Sadly they'll be back though.

...and that people of Quahog is what grinds my gears. Let's be careful out there.

Look out Below

So I was questioning my decision to sell my XLNX position yesterday as it showed some crazy resilience comparable to the market but the last hour confirmed my suspicion. The Macro position has fully broken down into correction mode. VIX is at 27+ and the pain of the new year continues. Netflix is going to accelerate tech losses as FAANG names shed some love. But I wouldn't worry too much.

So we always knew that this year was going to be a "stock picking" year. It wasn't going to be just a broad market, everything rises, kinda year. It was going to have to pick specific stocks. AMD is one of those stocks. its getting BATTERED but mainly thats because of the EPYC run-up it has taken in the past 4-5 months. What goes up must come down sometimes. It doesn't change the foundation and outlook for the company but its just market forces at work. We already were HEAVILY shorted as a result of the XLNX merger arb and now they are probably just piling on the shorts just bc its like "damn making money shorting the stock."

XLNX is holding up really really nice here and that is most likely bc of Arbs that showed up late to the game are not in a position to sell. It is such a low volume stock that people would rather hold. But with the collapse in AMD share price its interesting to note that people aren't selling XLNX. Hmmmm why do you think that? I would say bc they see value. They want to own the AMD shares. They know they may not make as much profit on the merger arb but they don't care bc the end result is AMD which shows some confidence in AMD stock.

So the good news about this Netflix debacle is that its going to accelerate losses in the tech sector and I would argue we will be closer to finding a bottom now. AMD is actually lagging the QQQ's a bit when it comes to finding oversold territory. But that is mainly just the result of how much we have risen to overbought before all of this. I would say that we will get a preview of where the bottom is on the macro picture BEFORE we see the bottom in AMD which will give us our buy signals to add to our leap positions.

I know a lot of people are facing a lot of pain right now and I sympathize with you. This is why I sold and took profits. This is why I always say don't chase a trade and your entries and strikes matter. Buy low and wait if you don

The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit an intraday high of $38,415.90 on Wednesday, which is its highest level in the last six sessions.

Today’s move comes as the 14-day RSI on BTC/USD broke out of its recent resistance level of 30, which typically signifies prices being oversold, and is now tracking at 38.

Despite remaining relatively oversold, this short-term bullish momentum has led to the 10-day (red) EMA slowly curving out, with the potential for an upward cross with the 25-day (blue) EMA gradually increasing.

If this were to occur, history shows that there could be increased buying pressure, as prices would likely break above the $40,000 ceiling. Which is an area where previous bull runs have started.

Ok now that the mods have stopped reading, I swear to god if I have to read one more post or comment where you reet hards overuse the term “DCA” I’m gonna move to El Salvador, use BTC to buy a dildo, and fly back to whatever shithole each and every one of you live in and make love to your mothers. HODL these nuts and DCA your way into my dink and bawls.

Screen Shot of the latest GME data from Ortex on Short Interest.

Friday, Dec. 17th was an interesting day as we saw a significant uptick in GME share borrowing and short interest. We haven't seen that in a long, long time, since they usually prefer to short via the ETF's.

The mad dash from 33% to 63% utilization in less than a week ... wow, just wow.

After months being flat ... boom goes the dynamite.

We should be talking about this IMO, so pls updoot for viz if you agree. I care not for the awards, here for the moass baby ...

At this rate of increase in utilization, we'll max out lendable shares in a matter of days!

Friday with the boom candle might be a one-off event, so can't draw a trend from one day, but it does seem significant that we could see such a large incr in util for such relatively low volumes last week.

The interesting part here to me is the day they put 2 of their ETF's on the Threshold Sec list, they're also dipping into GME to borrow real shares. That's new. Could imply they are at the end of their short rope?

Disclaimer: This is Ortex data. This is their best-guess estimate. Some peeps have concerns with them as a source. I am posting this bc I haven't seen much visibility on this on the sub this wknd and the implications in the data could be important to know going into next week.

Buy. Hodl. DRS.

Daily Chart

So interesting enough, we are holding up rather decently compared to other areas of the market. We have found some price support in this range as we approach the $130 line. Want to hear a sad note? If I had sold my XLNX at $230, I would have made more money than if the shares converted today. Soooo blahhhh thats the whole, hitting your price targets and sell. But I was trapped in taxes which I think is sort of bullshit.

At the end of the day its all about the MACRO condition and the concern here appears to be the spike in the 10 yr yield being up as high as its been in years. But the dirty secret of America is that we need to have low interest rates to function. We are hooked on them now and to be able to service our debt, we can't do that in a high interest rate environment. I doubt we see a 2% yield in the 10 year anytime soon. I think the Fed will find a reason to help stabilize the market some. Like it or not I just don't see us moving the 10 year much higher than this in the near term which suggests a bottom may be forming.

The Fed isn't going to want to suppress the spring buying season for real estate that begins in March/April when we already are having inventory issues so yes this is painful and it sucks but I do encourage people to dig their heels in and hold here if we can maintain this $130 level. The XLNX chart looks way worse than us and yesterday it set a new low so that is what I'm eyeing. That could be beginning to breakdown and drag us along with it or it could be that enthusiasm for the deal approval is waning a bit and people want to take profits in this tech sell-off.

Earnings are confirmed for 2/1 which is a little later than I expected so we might have a week or more before we start to see an earnings run-up for AMD which would be our next catalyst to drive us higher.

If you been following me at all, you would know my thesis we are just repeating March 2020 but with high VIX levels and crashes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s3y1s6/technical_analysis_why_the_vix_is_on_its_way_to/

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s88hpc/why_vix_will_hit_150_before_march_and_bulls/

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s9ebty/vix_will_go_to_150_spx_2000_technical_analysis/

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s9n0ye/mission_to_vix_150_spx_2000_technical_analysis/

We had the big ramp after opex with VIX spiking up to 38, it is almost exactly like post-opex on 2/25/2020 right before the big crash happened. However I do think we may pause for a day here.

https://preview.redd.it/2k6vzenllnd81.png?width=2247&format=png&auto=webp&s=1213d9d99a9be43057dd0f2ed7e7824eb0b2b73c

I think we will get a slight bump, 45 SPX point bump towards the end of opex in Feb 25 2020. Given our 1.7x multiplier based on how high we are relative to that top, i think we will get a 80-90 points rise from the low of ~4270. Expect a dead cat bounce up to about 4350-70, this is a perfect place to add to some 2/4 SPX puts in the 4000 range. If you got VIX calls out to late feb/march hold them, if you got puts that expire a couple of days, i would take profit and wait for a better entry in the next 24-48 hours.

https://preview.redd.it/jk4bdizvlnd81.png?width=2227&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b5dbc7ee167ff1999da74006be368a6591ead62

Strap your crash helmet on, because we are getting to VIX 80 in the next 2 weeks here and VIX 150 in the next month

Update 11:45am: looks like maybe we go down lower, not even a small bounce, the liquidation from the large players must be intense, its even overwhelming the lunch algos.

Update: 2:25pm: looks like the bounce was from 4120 to 4240, 120 bps jump. I screwed up by forgetting VIX is standard deviation and moves are variance, should've used 1.7^2 * 60 bps and we would get 180 bps bounce. Oh wel

Hello traders, we came into Monday knowing we may have some more to give to the down side, which meant we would have to lean more on feel of the market than levels. We finally got enough of a capitulation but wait... The market is playing chicken with the fed, who will blink first during this week of worry. Normally I would say we can get a temporary bounce under way but because we have fed speak this week and any number of market makers could be trying to prove a point by tanking the market to get the feds attention, we have to take it a moment at a time, because this could be a holding pattern. By holding pattern, I mean we could consolidate over huge ranges while we wait on the fed speak. In the analogies that I use as the market being a person running, when the running is being done by the larger time frames what often is seen as wild ranges is usually consolidation on a larger time frame. If you are not already positioned this area will be very dangerous to trade because of how rapid we could go from one end of the range to the next. Expanded the view out to the weekly I don’t think we have the temporary bottom in yet however I think the fed looms large over trading this week kind of giving a pause or break from the algorithmic fall. Avoid the jack and queen support areas if possible because if you buy or sell in this range it will be an invitation to get ripped apart in the back and forth. I f you must take positions before the fed make sure it is a defined risk position and you are ok with having a greater chance of losing it whatever it is. Side note apple seems to be trying to hold 156 support for what could turn out to be a bullish day meaning closing above 161.62. Will give a little more focus on apple as we get closer to earnings.

Key levels to watch for today... Resistance (jack)434, (queen)437-439 and (king)442-445 area. Support (jack)431-429, (queen)425-420 and (King)416-410.  In order for a bounce to gain traction it has to get above 434 today. Also because of the volatility it is going to make differentiating day types very hard. Today's scenarios:

1. Expansive Range Day structure. We could look to set a decision area/ upward boundary around the jack or queen resistance area before chopping lower back towards lows around 420 then trying to push the upper boundary again.

2. Trend day Down we open gap down and give a halfhearted try to close the gap. We find resistance on or before 439.84 then begin the downtrend for the morning. W

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So Like I said that this merger could not have come at a worse time. AMD is accelerating their losses compared to their peers mainly bc of the share dilution. There is a very real concern that we slip below $100 today which would be catastrophic.

I might have to bust out the old trading range from back in the day. Remember $100 was a massive resistance to us that we could crack for almost a year so if we give it up without a fight then we are in some big trouble here. Me pulling the trigger on my 100 shares at $110 seems to have been premature but its just a lot I've got other lots at much better prices. I think my avg cost basis is like $72 for my entire position right now but thats bc I've moved in and out of AMD since the $20s. The chart is INCREDIBLY oversold and I'm really really glad that I was able to sell my XLNX position every day we see this pull back. It reinforces the logic to take your profits when you can.

I honestly waited WAY WAY too long to take my profits but still I don't see a bottom for us if we fall through $100 today. VIX has been humming along right around 30 and doesn't want to seem to signal volatility ending anytime soon. QQQ is approaching the next key support level of $317 unless if can find some support. But this selloff is getting brutal and I'm not sure that it stops here.

Interesting enough the value trade is holding up pretty well and I gotta say that INTC is looking attractive as we approach $45. Generally I think its a dogshit stock but for the value trade and dividend its not a horrible stock to own. Plus I could get some diversification in the semi sector. I'm sitting on some cash that I want to deploy and I need ot put it into some place. KO I still think could have a gap fill at $55 which would be my entry so that doesn't leave me with much on my chart that I want.

In a time like this you are looking for discounts. You are looking for bottoms. You are looking for value. We are way past oversold but we are still putting in crazy amounts of volume which means people are selling en masse. I honestly thought we would have gotten a bump just from the short pressure releasing from the merger arb closing but I guess they are more than happy to leave the shorts on to maximize the gains. So expect that when the bounce back happens you also will have a major shor

Hey everyone just finding out our youngest dog had cancer. Which is a reminder of big picture stuff. This is just 0 and 1s on a chart in the big picture of life.

So gonna keep it short and no chart. Basically tech trade failed yesterday and macro condition fell apart super super quickly. NQ just couldn’t hold it and sold off during the second half of the day and hard. I think it gets uglier from here as we breath through the 130 support level. If we can hold again then that’s your buy zone for people looking to add LEAPS if not and it fails there is no support all the way down to 120 and then $100 below that.

Buckle up it’s about to get ugly I think. But the bounce we saw could be first sign that market is getting oversold

Here we go

Down we gooooooooooooo! Where we stop no body knows. VIX is the only rocket out there as treasury yields continue to hammer the tech sector. It has bled over to the Tech heavy SP as well. We were looking for some support at the $130 level but early morning action looks like we are going to fall below that and I gotta say this chart looks ugly allllll the way down to $120. But do ya know what the great thing is about LEAPs and stocks???

Yea major portions of my account have shed 25% of their value from the top, but I still own exactly what I owned 2 weeks ago. Nothing is expiring. The value might be down but I've got all the time in the world. This is why I don't like buying OTM options with short term time horizons or even like 3-4 month time horizons. "TIME IN THE MARKET IS BETTER THAN TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET"

So for me I'm in selling calls mode. I'm looking to continue to sell calls as long as this goes and close them whenever I hit a 50-75% profit. Gotta stay nimble and don't try to hold your short calls to expiration. Take your money off the table and buy them back for pennies on the dollar. Then re-adjust and open another one. Its slow running here but this is my logic with it:

-Bear markets give you an opportunity to take some quick profits by selling calls against your positions. Take some of those option premiums and sit on the cash to build up some reserves. Then get ready to let it rip when the bounce comes.

-No one knows where the actual bottom is until its already happened. So when we get a bounce, its going to be hard and fast. So staying nimble is going to be key here. You don't want to sell long term options and get screwed when this reverses.

Now I'm not saying this about all tech but for the Semi Sector, the macro picture has not changed. The positive market cycle and catalyst are all still there. Look at TSMC #s and see. What is going to hurt is EXTREMELY OVER VALUED pre-revenue tech companies. We aren't that. We have sales. We have profits. So I expect us to find some support sooner than some of the other speculative areas of the market. And get set bc this is a buying opportunity.

I'm still not ready to sell calls against my XLNX shares bc of how illiquid the options can be. But we are nearing my original cost basis for them sooooo I might have to dip i

It may just be my ignorance around TA but it doesn’t seem like there is a point to it. I’ve only been in the crypto space for maybe 8 months but in my own experience it never seems to be right. So little so that I’m just annoyed when I see a TA post either here or coin specific subreddits. I can’t help but say to myself, “You don’t know. Why are you doing this?! Nobody knows what’s going to happen. (Expect for those with enough money to manipulate things)”. Like I said though, I admittedly don’t know anything about TA. So for those who do know or have been in the game for a while, how often is TA actually right? Or not necessarily spot on but at least has the right idea of the direction something is heading? Is TA something you actually use to make decisions?

Here's the Chart

https://preview.redd.it/i2zkllmhq9a81.png?width=1550&format=png&auto=webp&s=21d4e221c4f979fe476492a42446943918e9ba86

Okay so interesting enough yesterday was a wild ride. I have in-laws in town so I'm not able to really participate in the discussion as much as I would like. But I'm really interested in that RSI bounce we had yesterday at the bottom of the chart. We hit hard off of that bottom trendline and then just went flat.

As usual tech got ahead of itself and appears to have oversold a bit and now they are trying to reclaim some of the buying opportunities that exist out there. We still haven't hit our "hold the line" of $130 support which is the final trench of support that exists on this chart. So interesting enough that if we book some support here and create a new support zone that is officially higher than that $130 support then what we have forming here is a really nice Rising wedge pattern with a high of the $164 and higher lows. It looks like it could be a really really elongated wedge pattern so the effect of this initial earnings might give us a head fake or to but return us back to this overall trend while we wait for a true breakout catalyst or breakdown catalyst.

Now if we continue to sell off here then we could breakdown here and we will be officially into a new downtrend which might not bottom out until $120 which UGGGGH would be horrible. But for those of you looking for LEAP opportunities, that would be your best window to get them. Prepare for how to position yourself to take advantage breakdowns with positive moves and you find out that you can actually start to look forward to a breakdown in share price a bit.

If you are a long term holder of the stock, then selling off a bit isn't exactly a problem. Its the opportunity to add to your position and gives you an entry to buy the dip. If we are going to continue this flag pattern we are in then I wouldn't be looking to add any LEAPS in this area bc we definitely could breakdown. But if we do fall, I don't see much support all the way down to $120 which would be a GREAT chance to buy some $100 LEAPs. RSI would probably bottom out at around that $120 level too so all the indicators would be signaling buy buy buy. I don't think that tech really is has much further to go. The rate hikes and fed movement definitely has given us a big hair cut and I could see more on the horizon. High Beta stocks like us will get it worse than others. Bu

Hello traders, the most important day of the week is here fed day. There are a lot of things lining up to make this super volatile day. I am going to go thru as much as I can as fast as I can. Things that concern me and should have you on the edge of your seat tomorrow or overnight. I thought we had our temporary capitulation moment but there are signs that this may not be so. 1)The vix is in backwardation in a big way. 2) We have a binary event coming (FOMC announcement at 2pm) 3)  a wall of worry being built at 435-439 on the spy. 4)  with energy fleeting from the weekly time frame it has not yet cycled into oversold territory. Along with this the MacD on both the daily and weekly are still building delta to the negative momentum side. 5) even with Microsoft giving good earnings numbers after the bell today the after-hour moves leave reason for concern. Seeing most of this in real time today before close it sparked me to take some additional short positions and buy calls in TLT for a possible morning flash crash or overnight super gap down window.

Key levels to watch for ... Resistance (jack)434, (queen)437-439 and (king)442-445 area. Support (jack)431-429, (queen)425-420 and (King)416-410.  In order for a bounce to gain traction it has to get above 439 today. Keep 422 in mind this is a magnet level we could revisit briefly at some point tomorrow. There is an apparition in the charts that is throwing some of the data sets off. If what I see is not a miss tick (it shows on all 3 platforms) it could be possible we visit the 400 area on the spy. I have to stress that since we are in backwardation/ super volatile conditions levels are extremely hard to see and adhere to. Keep and I on bond futures (/zb), and $dxy. A sign that things are going to get out of hand would be bonds going above 156 pushing recent highs and the dollar going above 96. It's possible with how nervous investors get before one of the most important fed announcements thus far, bonds and the dollar could be a landing place money in flight.  primary scenario to prepare for: Fed days are special, there is an inordinate habit of buying or selling the event before it happens which at times give us a big trend move before the announcement then, more fireworks at the announcement.

1)Rounded reversal day type structure. We could get a continued fall toward queen or king support area and find midday chop around either queen or king support area before spending the same energy we used going

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Well personally that wasn't how I wanted to end the week. We ended up having to put our dog down which was tough. Thank you everyone for your kind words for real!

But back to stocks. This market is looking for a bottom and it is more about the MACRO picture than the individual stock performance IMHO. I'm concerned about the QQQ's looking like they are straddling this bottom and might be on their way printing a new "lower low" here. Also that damn VIX is up again above 20 which is the first warning sign for the market. I think we might have a little headwinds in the Microsoft deal to buy activision. Thats great for Microsoft long term but their stock is down for the acquisition. They are a big big component of most indices so it is going to weigh down on some of the tech market just for a little bit. Microsoft is buying for cash to its a pure play and overall good for the gaming ecosystem.

This could be very very good for us in a sense bc this is a BIG partner of us buying a premiere gaming studio. Now I did see the hilarious article that I thought was from the onion from good ole Pat Gelsinger saying that "AMD is in INTC rear view mirror now." The only way we are in their rear view mirror is if we are beginning to lap them lol.

So the $130 level has been pretty strong for us. if we can hold it and maintain from here then I think we could be starting to see a bottom form. If we break below then that is your sell signal for your calls. Sell Calls against your positions to pick up a little premium and make some quick cash. But set very very tight stops so you don't get burned on the bounceback

Daily Chart

Social media influencers are making TAs like crazy and there are millions of people who are waiting for them to make a TA. They're telling you how ''insert a name here'' coin will make 10x. Dude, we all have seen that TAs are bullshit. No one can predict a bull or bear market. No one can predict a coin's price. Technical analysis is just like astrology. There is no different between TA and astrology.

I'll never understand why do so many people try to use it and why are there so many social media influencers and scammers who try to sell you on this stuff?

Most influencers who make TAs are just selling dreams to their fans at this point and that doesn't make sense to me.

That's it. All TA is wrong, and none of the TA posted here in the past month has been accurate. Please stop.

Crypto follows BTC except for price discovery. Again, for now. Your price predictions aren't going to happen.

Edit: Also, TA can never account for news. To all the Superstonkers, on top of TA not applying to alts, how tf would predictive mathematical modelling be able to outline a manipulated market?

Don’t worry I’m fine just pretty much I’m old and out of shape POS at the ripe old age of 36 lol. But I will be adding a chart and updating this post when I get home.

Interesting enough yesterday was the first signs of a bottom forming. I’m not sure that this is officially a bottom but the selling definitely got ahead of itself. VIX at the open was 22 and it’s crashed back down to 19 by EOD.

I think there is something to be said about computers/algorithmic trading in this area. They are programmed to look for bottoms to try to get ahead of the trade not wait for one to form. So I think we still might not be at the firm bottom here but this is initially a positive sign here. Further weakness isn’t a bad thing but that big green hammer we printed yesterday gives us hope that the pain is slowing.

I sold some calls yesterday morning and closed them out mid day for a nice little 50% profit. Tight stops with good entry and exit’s here if you want to play the game on any weakness. But be ready to buy your calls back quick if this shoots off hard and fast.

Happy Happy New year to you and your family. So the shackles are off from the dreaded tax season and now we all have a little more flexibility to make some moves without fear that Uncle Sam is going to be taking our profits.

The chart doesn't look to great even though the open is up but I would say this could be deceiving for multiple reasons:

a- we've got a product announcement coming into CES and into earnings. So January is going to be a busy month for us with very good positive catalyst for us to keep us buoyed. The merger still could be approved quickly but as we start to see Lisa making the rounds of the new year, I think we will get an updated timeline which would give us a better indication if we are in "any day mode" or if "Q1 means it could be a while"

b- AMD has consistently been on hot stock charts for the new year. A lot of major firms will be looking to take some profits off the table in the new year and looking for alpha. AMD and the entire semi sector has been identified by a lot of companies as the growth train keepin on. In a rising rate environment and taper of purchases, there isn't going to be so much as "all stocks go up" mode. In fact were going to have to get more selective in where you deploy your money bc not everyone is going to have that same accelerated growth. There will be more choppy trades and more picking winners and losers. Well guess what, most people are picking AMD as a winner. So I could see some enthusiasm coming into the stock with greater inflows. I still think there is going to be most people will try to buy XLNX if they want AMD. So looking for the spread to narrow there as you see outsized buying in XLNX compared to AMD would be confirmation of this.

The Chart: The chart looks very blahhhhh. MACD looks like its gearing up for a bearish cross and we are far away from any level of strong support. I've noted on the chart support zones for RSI. I really really like how the 50 day EMA is straddling that support trendline from our chart. The 50 day EMA has been a great wave to ride and we stay up above that for the most part. So anything around that $138/$139 level is a very very big buy signal to me. The only reason we fall below that is a market meltdown type situation which I'm not seeing. MACRO conditions look like a little pullback is coming but nothing more than ranging. So I would be ready to pull the trigger if any incoming dip comes in. Just bc we have those positive catalyst coming i