Why you should listen to me : Like most of you, I’ve been contemplating the macroeconomic implications of our current interest rate environment. And, hopefully like most of you, I’ve come to realize that I have no idea what I’m talking about
I’ll try to use lots of pictures. We’re currently in the most interest rate negative environment we’ve had in awhile
https://preview.redd.it/qges097d9pb81.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=32f86d0000a8e8f858d60f4487b7bf5b8dbfbe3a
Negative interest rates are funny, you know when you use forbidden corn and you get paid to take out a loan everyone wants to call it a ponzi, but in traditional finance we just call it rich people collateralizing their assets to take out loans against them to defer tax payments as long as possible (banks then use these collateralized assets to lend to anyone wanting leverage or to borrow for a short, just like in forbidden corn land).
This has important TINA implications because it means that it continues to make even more sense for rich people to stake their assets as collateral at banks, and it also makes sense for banks to be buying convertible debt whereby they get shares of companies if the share price goes above X price. Banks are forced to basically be buying call options on growth stonks
Anyways when we’re talking about interest rates it’s important to remember that money has a time element attached to it. In general the lower the interest rate, the more valuable money farther out in time is. To calculate this, we use discounted cash flow (I promise this is the only time I’ll utter these words), check out this table
https://preview.redd.it/1ly22r4g9pb81.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=2002493603957f0ec08d25b3b3b9cf50f4e6ce14
EDIT : u/darthboof provided some comments below on how i could improve the table. The "growth" value I'm assuming is that in year 5 it gets all of the cash flows, adjusted for inflation, that the value stock did but that growth gets it all in year 5
You can see if real rates are negative (meaning that inflation > risk free rate), then it's better for u to get ur cash farther out in time
Fo
... keep reading on reddit ➡Hi all! I've made a short analysis to see how much have changed the number of people attending an Inter game at San Siro in the last seasons (from 2014/2015 to 2019/2020) trying to understand how the team and management status were impacting the audience.
Feel free to drop any feedback, comments or request about that data.
Thanks for your time!
here is the link: https://medium.com/@alberto.acuto9/the-return-of-san-siros-voice-b1fde1f04e5f
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It's not uncommon to see online criticism of Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, with many claiming that it was totally hated by most filmgoers. In this post I will try to argue that it's actually not the case and that it had a fine reception among general audiences.
First of all, PostTrak reported that the audience gave it an 83% positive score and a 69% "definite recommend". And the film got a B+ CinemaScore, which by no means amazing, but also is far from terrible and doesn't equate to audience rejection at all (for example, crowd pleasing and word-of-mouth surprises like Venom and Joker also got a B+ score).
Apart from those polling scores, one of the best indicators of a film's overall reception are its box office legs (i.e. the total gross divided to opening weekend). The Crimes of Grindelwald opened to $62.1m in the US and Canada and went on to gross $159.6m, which equals to a 2.57 opening weekend multiplier. At first glance that number is not impressive at all, but a closer look at the box office reveals that the legs weren't really bad when compared to the rest of the franchise.
The Crimes of Grindelwald was released on the pre-Thanksgiving weekend of November, so I will compare it with other Wizarding World films released at the same time. There have been 4 Harry Potter films released in November as well as the 1st Fantastic Beasts film. The table below shows the legs of these films after each week of release.
| HP1 | HP2 | HP4 | HP7 | FB1 | FB2 | MIN | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Week OW Multi | 1,43 | 1,20 | 1,42 | 1,36 | 1,49 | 1,40 | 1,20 | 1,20 |
| 2nd Week OW Multi | 2,17 | 1,90 | 2,04 | 1,82 | 2,22 | 1,98 | 1,82 | 2,02 |
| 3rd Week OW Multi | 2,49 | 2,31 | 2,28 | 1,99 | 2,53 | 2,23 | 1,99 | 2,30 |
| 4th Week OW Multi | 2,70 | 2,45 | 2,40 | 2,09 | 2,72 | 2,38 | 2,09 | 2,46 |
| 5th Week OW Multi | 2,89 | 2,54 | 2,50 | 2,16 | 2,84 | 2,47 | 2,16 | 2,57 |
| 6th Week OW Multi | 3,11 | 2,65 | 2,62 | 2,23 | 2,96 | 2,50 | 2,23 | 2,68 |
| Final OW Multi | 3,52 | 2,97 | 2,83 | 2,37 | 3,15 | 2,57 | 2,37 | 2,90 |
As the table clearly shows, the overall legs of FB2 fall somewhere in the middle, at no point are they either the best or the worst. In fact, up until the 6th week of release the legs quite closely followed the franchise's average. **At the end of the 5th week FB2 OW multiplier was ahead of HP7 and not f
... keep reading on reddit ➡I’m sure there are already a lot of posts like this on this sub, but I wanted to try putting my own two cents out there.
I’ve been thinking a lot—especially with recent developments and his possible second rerun incoming—about why Childe is so clearly hated by this community. I’ve seen a couple posts about this topic, too, and from what I’ve seen most answers are something to the effect of “well, people just don’t like villains.” I think that’s not quite it, at least not all. I think the real reason people hate Childe isn’t just because he’s a villain, it’s because he’s a villains who subverts our expectations, and not just in the highly typical vain of having a sad/sympathetic backstory. Signora’s lore is incredibly cool, but as a character, she’s remarkably simple; we can clearly see how her current actions were affected by her past. Childe is a bit more complicated.
From first blush Childe is familiar, archetypal almost, and we can easily predict how he’s going to affect the story. He’s friendly with us, yes, but it’s so obvious that he’s up to no good that even Paimon is suspicious of him. The game sets everything up perfectly for us to expect that Childe will give up on the façade, betray us, and become the big bad of the Liyue arc. And that’s exactly what happens… except that Childe doesn’t give up on the façade. When we meet him in his character quest, he’s gotten over the gnosis incident, his friendliness is earnest. He’s just a genuinely nice guy. From the final chapter of the Liyue arc, we can also see he’s surprisingly naïve and petulant, none the master manipulator we might have thought he’d be.
This on its own isn’t all that subversive, but then as we learn more about his background, it becomes very clear that Mihoyo intends him to be a walking contradiction.
Childe is a nice guy with a family back home, yet he works for an evil organization, so he must have been forced into it, right? No? So then he’s doing it to support his family? Still no; Childe’s reasons for staying in the Fatui are surprisingly self-centered, and he actually enjoys working there.
He also genuinely enjoys bloodshed and talks about it casually in his voicelines, so maybe he’s a sociopath who can’t differentiate right from wrong? Wrong again; from his interactions with Teucer we can clearly see Childe has a very well-developed sense of right and wrong and knows that the things he does aren’t morally correct.
But what about his own childhood, falling into the Abys
... keep reading on reddit ➡A lot of people seemed to wonder what I meant by a proper market analysis, so I figured that I'd elaborate on that in the form of this post.
I have laid out the five steps that my clients and I walk through whenever we want to find a target market for their idea. I'll stop ranting, as the post is long enough as it is. Hope you find it useful!
#1. Determine your current strategical position Look critically at your concept. What are the features of your product/service? What benefits does it provide for your potential target market? To go a bit deeper on this, what are the benefits of these benefits? You need to be able to pinpoint what sort of benefits your target market will enjoy by using your product or service.
You should end up with a list that clearly states the value of your product/service. After you have done this, think about who might have a need for the benefits of your concept. You likely won’t be able to pinpoint a market yet, but you will have a general direction to look at.
#2. Zooming in on potential target markets By now you should have a general idea for what direction you will go with your concept. It is time to zoom in and hone in on more specific attributes.
Ask yourself the following questions:
➤ In what age category does my potential customer fall?
➤ Where does my potential customer live?
➤ Does my potential customer have the financial capacity to buy my product/service?
➤ Is my potential customer highly educated?
➤ Is my potential customer more likely to be male or female?
By answering these questions, you are starting to build a client persona. The reason we use client personas, is that it makes it that much easier to find first adopters for our product/service.
If you have trouble answering these questions, your idea is likely too broad. I recommend my clients to focus on a very targeted niche, as it will be more easily to wrap your head around the benefits of your product/service in relation to their specific situation.
#3. Pinpointing your client persona By now you should have a good understanding of the basic features of your potential client. It is time to isolate your potential client and create a client persona.
Here, Ask yourself the following questions:
➤ What does my persona value? (Think about morals for instance)
➤ Does my potential client e
... keep reading on reddit ➡After watching Twin Peaks: The Return, I had a lot of questions, and since it’s a more recent release, or perhaps because it is so long and convoluted, there isn’t really an analysis I’ve read online that makes sense of the series the way I’ve been able to make sense of some of Lynch’s previous work, including Lost Highway and Mulholland Drive. But after sitting and thinking about it for a long time, I feel I’ve come up with at least an idea of where to dig.
The story was so complicated that I felt I had to search online just for clarification on a few points, and also because I watched it illegally and so completely missed part of an episode because I couldn’t find it anywhere online. But after reading a few pieces giving some summary information, I began to think about Lynch’s dream logic as it pertained to the piece. I feel a lot of the piece resembles Mulholland Drive - especially the scenes involving Dougie and his family, in part because Naomi Watts appears in both stories. The way in which the Dream World is reflected through behavior and lighting is very similar in both movies. But thinking more about the logic of the dream, I just couldn’t get past the dense symbolism: the exchange of coffee cups, the red door and the red room, the Double R and Rio Rancho, the scenes of MacLachlan driving with different women over the same stretch of highway… it was all too much to process at first. But I began to think about the meta-ness of it all, if you will, and, bear with me, the way in which we, the audience, have become involved in the story, almost as if we are acting as detectives. Once Agent Cooper was called to the realm of the Black Lodge, he relinquished his duties as a detective, possibly to the audience. Now, we have become actively involved in the mystery; as David Lynch urges us to ask of ourselves, via the character of Gordon Cole, “who is the dreamer?” This, ultimately, is the question Agent Cooper, once he has “become” Richard near the end of the movie, asks of himself: is this really his reality, an existence he controls, or is he just a character in someone’s sick story, destined to a complicated and unhappy end? Let us entertain that second notion. Examining the story this way, Agent Cooper is the sick, gimpy plaything of David Lynch, forced to act out a stroke, rape the women he loves, and much else for the director's and our benefit; and if Lynch is perhaps the aforementioned “Judy,” the God who controls the destiny of Twin Pe
... keep reading on reddit ➡
It helps you come up with content ideas that are highly desired by people in your niche. It's closest to Answer The Public if I had to make a direct comparison.
What does it do: You pick a topic, it will then go through related subreddits and extract submissions that are questions, and cluster the questions into similar topics. Submissions are sorted based on the number of comments/score in each topic. The highly ranked submissions can then be used for generating new content ideas.
For example, here's a top questions in Topic #7 sourced from subreddit cars
Topic #7 keywords: expensive, luxury, luxury_brand, sell, buy
| num_comments | score | title |
|---|---|---|
| 213 | 194 | what vehicles have the largest disconnects between high msrp and low cost of ownership? |
| 509 | 165 | what cars would you consider to be stealth wealth ? |
| 486 | 152 | what cool cars are available new right now that people just arent buying? |
| 317 | 102 | what are some cars that make it look like you have more money? |
The results are published on notion (unfortunately I cannot post links here)
What I'm Hoping for Here
So basically I'm just looking for feedback about the idea in general. If you have any questions, happy to answer.
A lot of people seemed to wonder what I meant by a proper market analysis, so I figured that I'd elaborate on that in the form of this post.
I have laid out the five steps that my clients and I walk through whenever we want to find a target market for their idea. I'll stop ranting, as the post is long enough as it is. Hope you find it useful!
#1. Determine your current strategical position Look critically at your concept. What are the features of your product/service? What benefits does it provide for your potential target market? To go a bit deeper on this, what are the benefits of these benefits? You need to be able to pinpoint what sort of benefits your target market will enjoy by using your product or service.
You should end up with a list that clearly states the value of your product/service. After you have done this, think about who might have a need for the benefits of your concept. You likely won’t be able to pinpoint a market yet, but you will have a general direction to look at.
#2. Zooming in on potential target markets By now you should have a general idea for what direction you will go with your concept. It is time to zoom in and hone in on more specific attributes.
Ask yourself the following questions:
➤ In what age category does my potential customer fall?
➤ Where does my potential customer live?
➤ Does my potential customer have the financial capacity to buy my product/service?
➤ Is my potential customer highly educated?
➤ Is my potential customer more likely to be male or female?
By answering these questions, you are starting to build a client persona. The reason we use client personas, is that it makes it that much easier to find first adopters for our product/service.
If you have trouble answering these questions, your idea is likely too broad. I recommend my clients to focus on a very targeted niche, as it will be more easily to wrap your head around the benefits of your product/service in relation to their specific situation.
#3. Pinpointing your client persona By now you should have a good understanding of the basic features of your potential client. It is time to isolate your potential client and create a client persona.
Here, Ask yourself the following questions:
➤ What does my persona value? (Think about morals for instance)
➤ Does my potential client e
... keep reading on reddit ➡It helps you come up with content ideas that are highly desired by people in your niche. It's closest to Answer The Public if I had to make a direct comparison.
What does it do: You pick a topic, it will then go through related subreddits and extract submissions that are questions, and cluster the questions into similar topics. Submissions are sorted based on the number of comments/score in each topic. The highly ranked submissions can then be used for generating new content ideas.
For example, here's a top questions in Topic #7 sourced from r/cars
Topic #7 keywords: expensive, luxury, luxury_brand, sell, buy
| num_comments | score | title |
|---|---|---|
| 213 | 194 | what vehicles have the largest disconnects between high msrp and low cost of ownership? |
| 509 | 165 | what cars would you consider to be stealth wealth ? |
| 486 | 152 | what cool cars are available new right now that people just arent buying? |
| 317 | 102 | what are some cars that make it look like you have more money? |
I cannot post links here, you can PM me for the completed results published on notion.
What I'm Hoping for Here
So basically I'm just looking for feedback about the idea in general. If you have any questions, happy to answer. PM me your keywords or subreddits and we will run a report manually for you (for free).
