- All it takes to make the planet extinct with nuclear weapons is for the wrong group of people to gain a nuclear arsenal.
- Many of these "wrong groups" exist.
- As long as nuclear arsenals exist, they continue changing hands.
- The more desperate of a situation a country is in, the more likely this change of hands is to go to one of these "wrong groups."
- This increase in likelihood culminates when a country realizes it has no chance of retaining any habitable land within its borders, at which point the likelihood is very high that their nuclear arsenal will fall into the hands of one of the "wrong groups," especially as different groups in that country convert from groups that would have been fine into more of the "wrong groups," as people who did not realize their country was fucked find out their country is fucked and all they can do to fuck those that fucked them is trigger MAD.
- An increasing number of countries with nuclear arsenals are on track to lose more and more of their populations in the foreseeable future, with climate change meaning some may face complete loss of habitable territory.
- A high likelihood is not even needed for something to happen eventually when it only has to happen once and it has endless chances to happen every month forever.
An extract from the Master Nuclear and Uranium Post to come
Strategy Notes to Play the Cycle
Euphoria
Social media commentary - is all focused on SPUT which helps drive all companies, even those with poor fundamentals (note: strong uranium fundamentals = good project, derisked with studies, good financials and good management with technical expertise, probably doesn’t sell dildos).
- Companies with good FA, whenever they say something that is bettering the company, it's almost second to how SPUT is performing and the wider market.
- Sput is getting the market to where fundamentals will step in
- The market equities are currently valued at greater expectations than what current uranium prices are presenting.
- The market is not thinking $50/lb is the target for sustainable production growth, they are valuing the equities that the prices and contracts will get to $70+ per lb.
Strategies
Investors and traders need to know how to play listed companies when - to get in but more importantly when to get out. The two key strategies to consider:
- Play the momentum game - buy and sell on momentum swings, or,
- Play the long growth strategy - buy, build up positions and hold through the cycle
Momentum:
- Big media is not quite right in understanding the uranium market but it drives the retail euphoria.
- If you over analyze and overthink - you will likely miss the momentum moves.
- Good fund managers know the markets are like merry-go-round's, they know there's a few more rounds to go before they get off. When it stops and everyone gets off, they will look to get back in before it restarts.
- Not many retail investors can time the swings, entries and exits, but there is definitely money to be made if you have the experience and timing expertise. (and some luck)
Long Growth Strategy:
Personally I focus more on the FA of a company and then take an initial position which I build out over time when opportunities present themselves (changes in momentum).
I try to avoid buying when the stocks are rallying, but will take up step-wise positions when they are flat or have come back down.
The uranium market is very small right now. An industry that produces 10.4% of global electricity and ~28.4% of our carbon free electricity has a combined valuation of ~$42b. This is nothing compared to other markets and the energy market as a whole. For example, one of the largest coal producers Glencore has a $62b valuation. There is still m
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Would a sprawling, decentralized industrial-residential landscape of a country (which may result in subruban sprawl) work as a viable form of infrastructure protection and self-defense?
I was recently reading these articles:
The Effects of Nuclear War May 1979: https://ota.fas.org/reports/7906.pdf
INDUSTRIAL LOCATION & REGIONAL POLICY IN SOUTH INDIA: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/29112/1/10731207.pdf
This is only a Test: How Washington D.C. Prepared for Nuclear War 1st Edition by D. Krugler (Author): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1403965544/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=bldgblog-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1403965544
I think the idea is to make a country's citizens, its industrial base, and its infrastructure much harder to target.
But...on the other hand, if a country does have the capability to lob at least a hundred ICBMs towads a particular country, an enemy might deliberately target industrial centers rather than urban population centers.
