Hi all i am currently struggling to understand how the SEIR model works in relation with vaccination. My main question i am struggling with is how the latent period (E) effects the vaccination threshold of a population to a certain disease

i am finding it difficult to understand the papers around this subject so any pointers or links to easy to understand material will be appreciated.

Hello guys! Lhecas from Superb here!

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Happy new year for everyone! Today i'll be starting a series expl

Disclaimer: I posted this in the Open Thread on the blog, but my impression is that nobody read it. Sorry if it's the wrong place.

Short: I need the help of someone with experience in epidemic modeling. I am studying the effects of the new Covid-19 strain (the UK one) using a SEIR model. I want to make a simple epidemic model, verify it on historical data, forecast for the future. I intend to publish it as a research paper, but also to bring it to my local media, warn the people. I have implemented the model, it's not good enough and I need help.

If you can help, please reach out to me via reddit messages! Let's chat, maybe we can publish together.

Long:

For context, I am an Msc with a Data Science degree. I have no prior experience in epidemiology.

TheZvi's excellent post makes a point that the new covid strain is going to cause an explosion of infections in the US, with the peak being around July. I took his reasoning very seriously, checked it, found no mistakes. After that, I took his SEIR model and plugged in the numbers for my country. Surely I obtained the same results: basically, the whole country being infected by the end of August.

In my country the mood is basically "It's almost over". Vaccines are rolling out, things are reopening, people are paying less attention to masks, if any at all. If that continues, we are in for a bad surprise. It has already been confirmed that the new strain reached my country.

My plan:

• Make my own SEIR model of the Covid-19 epidemic - I don't fully understand TheZvi's model, and I don't know how it fares on historical data.
• Ensure that the model's forecasts on historical data are at least okay. It doesn't have to be very precise, but should enough to make me and others confident in the extrapolations of the model.
• Forecast for a year ahead, find out what the new strain means for us.
• Take the model and results to the local media, to get people to prepare (or at least avoid relaxing too fast), and to earn me some reputation.
• Whatever the result, publish a paper.

Currently, I have implemented the SEIR model. I have fixed as many model parameters as possible - basically, every parameter that does not depend on time or region. Examples of such include the base R0, the incubation period length, the number of days somebody is infectious.

ND COVID19 Predictions Dashboard

As Notre Dame has recently opened for a Fall 2020 semester, many students, parents, faculty, and staff are interested in how COVID19 will impact our community. To address this, a calculator for case predictions was adapted from Gabriel Goh's calculator and source code. I attribute all of this work to him and his collaborators. A full list of acknowledgements can be found at the end of the page on the dashboard.

Here, an SEIR model approach is used to predict the number of infections, hospitalizations, recoveries, and fatalities for campus. The model predictions are made taking in parameters (described below), and predicting the outcomes N days from the day the parameters were last updated. Model parameters were selected based on the following:

• Population size [Size of campus population]: Acquired from u/Trev_Dog_/ on a spreadsheet here. Adjusted to account for the roughly 1100 faculty/staff working completely remotely this semester.
• Number of initial infections [Total number of current infectious people]: Acquired from ND's Dashboard here
• Length of incubation period [Time between exposure and symptom onset]: Selected based on WHO reports and various scientific papers outlined on the predictions dashboard
• Duration patient is infectious [How long an infectious person is capable of transmitting the disease]: Selected based on WHO reports and various scientific papers outlined on the predictions dashboard
• Time from end of incubation to death [Time it takes from onset of symptoms to death]: Selected from here
• **Length of hospital stay [If hospitalized,

I can't find a solid answer on any of the UTA websites. I tried going to the Commons during the break and it was closed. Does anyone know if any of the places are open now?

Scapegoat, Hebrew saʿir ("goat" or "lamb") la-ʿAzaʾzel, (“for Azazel”), in the Yom Kippur ritual described in the Torah (Leviticus 16:8–10), there were two goats

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6 “Aaron shall offer the bull as a sin offering for himself and shall make atonement for himself and for his house.
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>7 Then he shall take the two goats and set them before YHVH at the entrance of the tent of meeting.
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>8 And Aaron shall cast lots over the two goats, one lot for the Lord and the other lot for Azazel.[a] 9 And Aaron shall present the goat on which the lot fell for the Lord and use it as a sin offering, 10 but the goat on which the lot fell for Azazel shall be presented alive before the Lord to make atonement over it, that it may be sent away into the wilderness to Azazel.

By the Torah, verse 9 has -

The Immolated Goat died.

The Aza'zel goat got to live and let go of.

Ritually burdened with the sins of the Jewish people, the scapegoat was sent into the wilderness for Aza'zel, possibly for the purpose of placating that evil spirit, while a separate goat (Immolated Goat) was slain as an offering to God. By extension, a scapegoat has come to mean any group or individual that innocently bears the blame of others.

So here is the key point. Jesus did not bear any "evil spirits". He was not the Aza'zel goat, which was kept alive and exiled. It means the Aza'zel goat will be dealt with on a latter day.

The scapegoat was a goat that was designated (Hebrew: לַעֲזָאזֵֽל‎) la-'aza'zeyl; "for absolute removal" (for symbolic removal of the people's sins with the literal removal of the goat), and outcast in the desert as part of the ceremonies of the Day of Atonement, that began during the Exodus

Hey! I'm an IB student doing my Math IA on SEIR models and how they work. Problem is, I have no previous experience with programming on python and can't seem to find a proper program that would allow me to model my simulations and recover data from them without requiring me to go through a python course. If any of you guys know some open-source or online program that I can use to model my graphs it would SAVE MY LIFE. It doesn't have to be incredibly detailed, just so that it allows me to fit in custom parameters and graphs the epidemic precisely. Thanks!

The SEIR building was evacuated this afternoon around 3pm. Does anyone know why? I've also heard that they are moving classes that were meeting in SEIR to other buildings. What's going on?

Anyone have any ideas on how I could simulate or model some SIR equations in RStudio?

Are Spawns gear pieces Seir and Xaphan still only in his premier tower? Thank you.

I left a Lepow USB-C monitor in upstairs SEIR (on Oct 16, Friday evening at around 7 PM). After lost and found said they have not receive it and SEIR don't have a "front desk" staff anymore, this is the last place I can ask.

If you have it or know the person in possession of it, I would greatly appreciate if you could return it. It was my graduation gift, and it means the world to me.

Thank you.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BraveNine/comments/ku1tps/tldr_guide_to_new_units_seir/