I'm currently applying to programs that focus on topics such as supercells / tornadogenesis. So far, I've applied to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Northern Illinois University, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, and Ohio University. I want to add really at least 2 programs. I'm looking at the University of North Dakota as a possibility, but would like suggestions for other programs (not necessarily the top in the country like OU).

For my mesoscale meteorology final, I need to know how to diagnose inertial instability. I understand that it depends on the balance between the Coriolis force and pressure gradient force. However, I don't understand how you determine which force becomes the dominant force once the parcel is displaced, therefore determining whether the parcel accelerates towards or away from its initial location. Does it depend on anticyclonic/cyclonic shear? North/south parcel displacement? Zonal momentum? Or some other factor?

Latest observation

Tuesday, 5 October — 7:09 AM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 07:21 UTC)

Latest news

Tuesday, 5 October — 7:09 AM GMT (07:09 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Sam continues to undergo extratropical transition

Sam continues to steadily transition into an extratropical cyclone as it races toward the north-central Atlantic this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts a decrease in inner core convection as the cyclone becomes increasingly entangled within a deep-layer mid-latitude trough situated over the Labrador Sea. The cyclone's convective structure is becoming increasingly elongated; however, recent microwave imagery indicates that it is maintaining a warm core and remains tropical for the time being.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Sam's maximum one-minute sustained winds have decreased to 140 kilometers per hour (75 knots). The cyclone is moving northeastward at around 46 kilometers per hour (25 knots) as it remains embedded within enhanced southwesterly flow between the approaching mid-latitude trough and a ridge situated to the southeast.

Forecast discussion

Tuesday, 5 October — 7:09 AM GMT (07:09 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Sam will likely maintain hurricane-force winds through midweek

Sam is likely to complete its extratropical transition later this morning, but ongoing baroclinic forcing will help the cyclone maintain a broad field of hurricane-force winds into the morning hours on Wednesday. Sam will slow down significantly as its circulation becomes fully absorbed by the trough, but will begin to accelerate toward the east on Wednesday as it becomes swept up in the strong mid-latitude flow. Sam will ultimately turn northward and northwestward later in the week as it revolves around a second trough.

Official forecast

**Tuesday, 05 October — 3:

I am just coming from Artifexian's comprehensive YouTube series on how to design realistic climates and rainfall averages for fictional worlds, and I've been thinking of how cool it would be to have a consolidated site or community to see the weather on people's conworlds in real time, and provide increasingly detailed and automated physics-based weather models for fictional maps people upload. In his video, Artifexian actually goes through his map month by month and draws out the climate averages by hand. There is real beauty to this process, in getting to know a world by drawing it! Faster, but more technically-complex methods, like NASA's ROCKE 3d exoplanet simulator also exist, but these still describe climate averages and not weather. But... I don't think I've seen a simple, automated tool that provides weather forecasts on a periodic basis.

Weather is tricky because unlike climate, weather forecasts are made by supercomputers that combine hundreds of real world live data points. There are no weather stations to provide that real-time data in conworlds. As imaginative as this community is, no one person can replace the vast network of weather stations that span this world to provide real-time data day and night, so that data would have to be randomized or faked. But there has to be some way of simulating some convincing weather, right? I think in meteorological terms this would be called synoptic, mesoscale, and smallest, storm scale weather. To my knowledge, existing models don't do this.

Isn't monthly climate data enough? Yeah! But in my mind, an automated, procedural weather forecast for conworlds adds an extra little spark, and potentially some randomness that could be really helpful for DM-ing and serial storytelling. And a consolidated community where you can see others' weather makes it fun, interactive, and collaborative.

There are definitely existing programs to accomplish some of what's described above, but I think it would still be really cool to have a dedicated exo or fantasy world forecast site with a prettier UI (with permission from the respective conworld authors, obviously!) and that turns conworld weather into a cooler, more interactive, exploratory setting rather than something done on individual machines, behind the scenes. For example, to simulate weather with existing programs, you would have to launch ROCKE 3D, have some programming knowledge, then try to r

I am an autistic polymath. My interests are listed here in info dump format, enjoy ;) Paleoclimatology, Etymology, Slavic languages, Slavic mythology, Quantum chromodynamics, Mesoscale meteorology, Dynamic meteorology, Climatology, Quantum Relativistic Mechanics, Organic chemistry, Inorganic chemistry, Neuroscience, Artificial Intelligence, Hindu mythology, Greek mythology, Aztec mythology, Aerospace engineering, Mycology, Botany (mostly carnivorous/nitrovorous plants), Arachnology, Optics, Astrophysics, Condensed Matter and Nuclear Astrophysics, Spin Ices, Nuclear Physics, Japanese culture, Japanese mythology, Modern Japanese design, Origami, Topology, Cybersecurity, Medicine, Geology, Glaciology, Entomology, Nephology, Oryctosynthetics (making gemstones, ores, minerals in an artificial environment with pure base materials and secondary compounds like vanadium (V) pentoxide or chromium (III) oxide), Syntheometeorology (making scaled down artificial environments conducive to the generation of meteorological phenomena and systems like a kata-cold front, most of my preliminary research just exists on paper), Climatope Meta-tropoformation technology (changing the parameters and or settings of a select area of a climate zone to alter said area's climatope, this does not include a change to that area's photoperiod of insolation, it does however include changes to an area's daily and seasonal weather patterns), Exoplanetary terraformation and colonization, Cosmology, Particle physics, Particle accelerators and design, Planetary science, Astronomy, Electronics, Paleontology, Ice core climate proxies, Freezing rainwater to make ice cores for future Anthropocene climate records, LASERs!!, Quantum dots, Ultraviolet fluorescence, Acoustics, Condensed matter physics, Theoretical physics, Music (especially jazz baby!), Phonons, Examining science fiction technologies for inspiration and critique, Bose-Einstein Condensates, States of matter, Collecting every single stable isotope and nuclear isomer frome every element in the universe, Examining crystalline materials, Finding uses for waste materials like cannabis residue, broken unglazed ceramic tiles, mashed pine needles, and even dead crickets , Tropical meteorology, Biotechnology, Bosons (in general), Making new extremely useful materials (for now, on paper), Writing science fiction stories, Playing minecraft, Egyptian mythology, Genghis Khan (Temujin), Climacatastrophic events like the End-Permian-Tri

I am currently a senior majoring in atmospheric science with a minor in chemistry at Purdue University. I am looking at Masters programs beginning next Fall. From Purdue I have research experience in atmospheric aerosols, cloud physics, and radar meteorology. I also have experience with weather risk and Mesoscale meteorology. So I have a wide range of experience in atmospheric-related research.

For a masters programs I’m leaning towards weather-climate interactions and how the changing climate can impact weather patterns, or weather risk and how extreme weather events impact society. I have an open mind to anything atmospheric, I love it all, but this is what I’m leaning towards.

Graduate programs I’m looking strongly at include UColorado, UOklahoma, UWashington, UIllinois, UWisconsin, Penn State, Miami (Fl), Iowa State, and my soon-to-be alma mater Purdue. Any experience or additional knowledge of these programs that people could share (positive or negative) would be appreciated.

Do your worst!

For context I'm a Refuse Driver (Garbage man) & today I was on food waste. After I'd tipped I was checking the wagon for any defects when I spotted a lone pea balanced on the lifts.

I said "hey look, an escaPEA"

No one near me but it didn't half make me laugh for a good hour or so!

Edit: I can't believe how much this has blown up. Thank you everyone I've had a blast reading through the replies 😂

They’re on standbi

For my mesoscale meteorology final, I need to know how to diagnose inertial instability. I understand that it depends on the balance between the Coriolis force and pressure gradient force. However, I don't understand how you determine which force becomes the dominant force once the parcel is displaced, therefore determining whether the parcel accelerates towards or away from its initial location. Does it depend on anticyclonic/cyclonic shear? North/south parcel displacement? Zonal momentum? Or some other factor?

Latest observation

Thursday, 13 January – 4:15 PM ACST (17:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Latest news

Thursday, 13 January – 4:15 PM ACST (17:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Tiffany continues to weaken across the Top End

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Tiffany's convective structure continues to deteriorate as the cyclone moves westward across the arid and rough terrain of the Top End this evening. Animated infrared imagery depicts a fully exposed low-level center as easterly deep-layer shear continues to displace the bulk of the cyclone's convection westward. Radar imagery indicates that locally heavy rainfall continues across portions of the Northern Territory.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis and surface observations indicate that Tiffany's maximum sustained winds have decreased to around 45 kilometers per hour, or 25 knots, over the past six hours. The cyclone is moving westward along the northern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge situated over central Australia.

Forecast discussion

Thursday, 13 January – 4:15 PM ACST (17:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

A small chance of re-development exists early next week

Tiffany's low-level circulation could emerge over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later this evening or on Friday. Environmental conditions may be favorable enough that re-development is possible; however, Tiffany's low-level center is expected to move back over land on Saturday, ending its chances of further development.

Official advisories

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

• Homepage

• Northern Territory outlook

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United Sta

Latest observation

Thursday, 13 January – 4:14 AM Fiji Standard Time (FJT; 16:14 UTC)

Latest news

Thursday, 13 January – 4:14 AM FJT (16:14 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Cody strengthens as it accelerates away from Fiji

Although Cody's low-level circulation remain intact, the cyclone's convective structure is steadily becoming less organized as it enters an unfavorable environment over the southern Pacific Ocean this afternoon. Animated infrared imagery shows the effects of strengthening shear, dry low- to mid-level air, and cooling sea temperatures, depicting the bulk of the cyclone's convection weakening and pulling away from the low-level center. An upper-level trough is helping to maintain Cody's strong poleward outflow channel.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Cody's maximum one-minute sustained winds have increased to 95 kilometers per hour (50 knots) over the past six hours. The cyclone is accelerating toward the southeast along the western periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge situated to the east-northeast.

Forecast discussion

Thursday, 13 January – 4:14 AM FJT (16:14 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Cody is likely to transition into an extratropical cyclone by Saturday

Deteriorating environmental conditions will continue to weaken Cody's convection as it races across the southern Pacific over the next couple of days. An approaching baroclinic zone will help to maintain strong upper-level divergence, allowing Cody to sustain peak-level surface winds through the end of the week. On Friday, Cody is expected to undergo transition into an extratropical transition. The cyclone's wind field will expand as this process completes over the weekend.

Official forecasts

Australia Bureau of

Latest observation

Saturday, 1 January – 2:16 AM Australia Eastern Standard Time (AEST; 16:16 UTC)

Latest news

Saturday, 1 January – 2:16 AM AEST (16:16 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Seth becomes the fourth named cyclone of the 2021-2022 Australia region season

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated over the central Coral Sea has rapidly transitioned into a well-organized tropical cyclone after exhibiting subtropical characteristics throughout the evening on Saturday. Over the past several hours, a symmetric central dense overcast has become increasingly distinct from a larger curved convective band, suggesting that deep-layer shear has decreased. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has begun issuing advisories for the cyclone, assigning it the name Seth.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, including a fortunately-timed scatterometer pass, indicate that Seth is maintaining maximum one-minute sustained winds at 95 kilometers per hour (50 knots). The storm is moving east-southeastward along the southwestern periphery of a near-equatorial ridge situated to the northeast.

Forecast discussion

Saturday, 1 January – 2:16 AM AEST (16:16 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Seth should transition back into a subtropical cyclone within the next couple of days

Seth is currently moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear (10 to 15 knots), a warm sea surface (28 to 29°C), and strong divergence aloft. Seth will gradually turn southward this weekend as a strong subtropical ridge situated to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. This southward motion will bring Seth over cooler waters and into an area of stronger shear.

Interaction with a mid-level shortwave trough is

Latest observation

Tuesday, 14 December – 5:08 AM New Caledonia Standard Time (NCT; 18:08 UTC)

Official forecasts

Australia Bureau of Meteorology

Tuesday, 14 December — 11:00 AM NCT (12:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tuesday, 14 December — 2:00 AM NCT (15:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #8

Latest observation

Wednesday, 22 September — 4:51 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

Latest news

Wednesday, 22 September — 4:51 PM AST (21:00 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The eigtheenth cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic season has formed

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories for Tropical Depression Eigtheen. The cyclone, which is currently situated over the eastern tropical Atlantic, is expected to steadily develop as it moves westward through a favorable environment over the next few days. Please stand by as we get this thread fully updated with the latest details and discussion.

Thank you for tracking with us!

Official forecast

Wednesday, 22 September — 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #1

Latest observation

Friday, 3 December – 12:15 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 15:15 UTC)

Latest news

Friday, 3 December – 12:15 AM JST (15:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Nyatoh continues to strengthen as it turns northeastward

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Typhoon Nyatoh continues to strengthen over the central Philippine Sea this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts a ring of very deep convection surrounding a ragged and partially cloud-filled eye. The storm has turned toward the north-northeast ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and has encountered much stronger upper-level divergence which is powering its already robust poleward outflow channel, as evidenced by recent water vapor imagery.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Nyatoh has quickly intensified to the equivalent strength of a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots). Nyatoh remains embedded within a favorable environment characterized by a warm ocean surface, abundant moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. However, as the mid-latitude trough approaches from the west, deep-layer shear has increased to over 35 kilometers per hour (20 knots).

Forecast discussion

Friday, 3 December – 12:15 AM JST (15:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Further strengthening is possible in the short-term forecast

Environmental conditions remain favorable enough that Nyatoh could undergo some further intensification over the next 12 to 24 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is projecting a peak intensity near 195 kilometers per hour (105 knots) by Friday afternoon. As Nyatoh rounds the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge situated over the Marianas Islands and accelerates ahead of the approaching trough, s

Latest observation

Saturday, 6 November — 11:48 PM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 23:48 UTC)

Latest news

Saturday, 6 November — 11:48 PM GMT (23:48 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Wanda weakens once more as it slowly turns eastward

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Wanda's convective structure has become less defined as it makes its anticipated northeastward turn this evening. Animated infrared imagery depicts the bulk of the storm's convection getting pushed southeastward by strengthening northwesterly shear associated with deep-layered trough which is quickly approaching from the west. Upper-level wind analysis and water vapor imagery reveal that the trough has also begun to cut off Wanda's poleward outflow channel.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, including recent scatterometer data, indicate that Wanda's maximum sustained winds have decreased to around 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots) over the past six hours. The storm is moving slowly eastward as the steering environment shifts to a more southwesterly component ahead of the approaching trough.

Forecast discussion

Saturday, 6 November — 11:48 PM GMT (23:48 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Wanda may restrengthen as it accelerates northeastward

Wanda is expected to turn toward the northeast overnight and accelerate as mid-level flow begins to accelerate ahead of the trough. While environmental conditions should deteriorate over the remainder of the weekend, with sea-surface temperatures rapidly decreasing and upper-level divergence weakening, the storm could undergo some strengthening due to baroclinic forcing. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal boundary by early next week and dissipate altogether by Monday evening.

Official forecast

Saturday, 06 November — 9:00 PM GMT (21:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #28

Hour | Date | Time

Latest observation

Tuesday, 21 September — 6:35 PM Cape Verde Time (CVT; 19:35 UTC)

Latest news

Tuesday, 21 September — 6:35 PM CVT (19:35 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to organize

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that convection has begun to fire back up to the north of a tropical wave which continues to move westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this afternoon. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the disturbance has not yet developed a closed low-level center. While modest northeasterly shear and convergence aloft are offsetting a moist mid-level environment and a warm ocean surface, environmental conditions are expected to improve over the next few days, giving the disturbance an opportunity to develop into a tropical depression later in the week.

Official advisories

National Hurricane Center

Outlook

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico

Discussion

• Tropical Weather Discussion

Radar imagery

Unavailable

This disturbance is too far away from publicly-accessible radar.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Conventional Imagery

Tropical Tidbits

• Visible / Shortwave Infrared

• Enhanced Infrared

• [**Enhanced I

Latest observation

Monday, 25 October — 7:06 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 00:06 UTC)

Latest news

Monday, 25 October — 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Rick weakens into a tropical depression over Michoacán

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Rick's convective structure has been heavily disrupted by mountainous terrain over northern Michoacán. Animated infrared imagery depicts a cluster of deep convective bursts concentrated along the coast near the towns of Colola and Maruata. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Rick's maximum one-minute sustained winds have decreased to around 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression is moving northward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge which is centered over the Caribbean Sea.

Forecast discussion

Monday, 25 October — 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Rick should degenerate into a remnant low this evening

Further interaction with mountainous terrain is inevitably going to further weaken Rick as its low-level circulation unravels this evening. Rick is likely to degrade into a remnant low later this evening and dissipate altogether by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall from the depression is likely to continue into Tuesday over portions of Michoacán and Guerrero, likely producing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous surf conditions along the southwestern coast of Mexico will begin to subside on Tuesday afternoon.

Official forecast

Monday, 25 October — 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #14

Latest observation

Friday, 3 December – 6:26 PM India Standard Time (IST; 12:56 UTC)

Official forecasts

India Meteorological Department

Friday, 03 December — 2:30 PM IST (09:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Friday, 03 December — 2:30 PM IST (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #2

Latest observation

Saturday, 30 October — 8:22 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 00:22 UTC)

Latest news

Saturday, 30 October — 8:22 PM AST (00:22 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

A subtropical storm is likely to form over the northern Atlantic this weekend

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a non-tropical low situated several hundred kilometers to the south-southeast of Newfoundland continues to undergo frontolysis, meaning that it is steadily losing its frontal characteristics and is becoming a barotropic, vertically-stacked low pressure system. Animated infrared imagery depicts an increase in thunderstorm activity to the east of its well-defined and partially exposed low-level center.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the low is maintaining maximum sustained winds near 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots). The low is beginning to accelerate toward the east along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge situated to the south. While northwesterly shear remains strong and mid-level moisture is low, this system is expected to further develop as it moves over warmer waters this weekend. It is now likely (if it hasn't already happened) that the low will become a subtropical storm.

The storm will be very short-lived as a building ridge pushes it northward early next week

However, while the disturbance is expected to breach the threshold and become a subtropical storm this weekend, it is not expected to maintain this structure or strength for long. A building mid-level ridge to the southeast of the disturbance is expected to abruptly push it northward or north-northwestward by Monday. Much cooler waters will effectively halt any further development and will cause the disturbance, whether it develops into a subtropical storm or not, to very quickly degenerate.

Official advi

Latest observation

Wednesday, 22 September — 11:16 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 03:16 UTC)

Latest news

Wednesday, 22 September — 11:16 PM AST (03:16 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Peter has degenerated into a remnant low

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that after several days of fighting strong southwesterly shear, Peter has finally degenerated into a remnant low. Animated infrared imagery depicts a low-level swirl of clouds which continues to gradually unravel as Peter's circulation becomes increasingly elongated. Any convection that continues to fire off to the east and northeast of Peter's exposed center remains highly disorganized and does not resemble the structure of a tropical cyclone.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Peter's maximum one-minute sustained winds have wound down to 45 kilometers per hour (25 knots). Peter continues to drift slowly toward the north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in a low-level ridge situated to the northeast.

Forecast discussion

Wednesday, 22 September — 11:16 PM AST (03:16 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Peter will dissipate altogether overnight

Environmental conditions over the western Atlantic are likely to remain hostile over the next couple of days, dashing any opportunity for Peter to redevelop. Peter is likely to degenerate into an open trough by Tuesday morning as it turns northward around the western periphery of the low-level steering ridge.

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for this cyclone. As such, there will be no further updates to this thread.

Official forecast

Wednesday, 22 September — 11:00 PM AST (03:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #18

Hour | Date | Time | | Intensity | | Winds | | Lat | Long :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :- | :-

Latest observation

Wednesday, 8 December – 11:04 PM Christmas Island Time (CXT; 16:04 UTC)

Official forecasts

Australia Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology is not issuing advisories at this time.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Wednesday, 08 December — 4:00 PM CXT (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #4

Official advisories

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

The Bureau of Meteorology is not issuing advisories at this time.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Warning Text

• Warning Graphic

• Prognostic Reasoning

Radar imagery

Not available

Teratai is not within range of publicly-accessible radar sources.

Satellite imagery

Latest observation

Tuesday, 21 September — 4:38 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 08:38 UTC)

Latest news

Tuesday, 21 September — 4:38 AM AST (08:38 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Rose weakens as it accelerates northwestward

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that while Rose briefly strengthened overnight, it has become noticeably less organized this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts deep convection displaced well to the southeast of Rose's exposed low-level center. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Rose's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots) over the past several hours.

Forecast discussion

Tuesday, 21 September — 4:38 AM AST (08:38 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Rose will gradually weaken through the end of the week

Rose is moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated to the northeast of the Azores. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for further development, with moderate westerly shear and dry mid-level air offsetting a warm ocean surface and sufficient upper-level divergence. As Rose moves across the open waters of the central Atlantic this week, it will encounter a gradually deteriorating environment as mid-level moisture decreases and upper-level divergence diminishes.

Rose is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday evening. By Thursday, the cyclone's much shallower structure will turn sharply west-northwestward as a broad upper-level trough approaches from the west and shifts the steering environment. It is possible that strong shear and dry mid-level air could degenerate Rose into an open trough much earlier than this.

Official forecast

Tuesday, 21 September — 5:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #9

Latest observation

Wednesday, 13 October — 11:55 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 04:55 UTC)

Latest news

Wednesday, 13 October — 11:55 PM CDT (04:55 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Pamela degenerates into a remnant low over northern Mexico

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that interaction with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico has seriously degraded Pamela's convective structure. Animated infrared imagery and recent surface observations across northern Mexico and southern Texas reveal that Pamela's low-level circulation has degenerated into an open trough which is interacting with an emerging baroclinic zone over the south-central United States. Thus, Pamela is no longer tropical in nature and the National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory.

The remnants of Pamela are expected to inject deep tropical moisture into a maturing frontal system over the central United States. The heaviest rainfall will fall over portions of eastern and central Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and northwestern Arkansas before spreading northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday and further into the Great Lakes region over the weekend.

For further updates on impacts from the remnants of Pamela, please consult your local National Weather Service office. This will be the last update to this thread.

As always, thank you for tracking with us!

Official forecast

Wednesday, 13 October — 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #16

Official advisories

Latest observation

Sunday, 10 October – 9:09 AM China Standard Time (CST; 01:09 UTC)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Sunday, 10 October — 8:00 AM CST (00:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Sunday, 10 October — 5:00 AM CST (21:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #11

Official information sources

Other discussions

Northern Atlantic

• 18L - Sam

• 20L - Victor

Latest observation

Sunday, 3 October – 11:26 PM India Standard Time (IST; 17:56 UTC)

Official forecasts

India Meteorological Department

Sunday, 03 October — 8:30 PM IST (15:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Sunday, 03 October — 8:30 PM IST (15:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #23

Other discussions

Northern Atlantic

• 18L - Sam

• 20L - Victor

Northern Indian

03B - Gulab / Shaheen

Latest observation

Saturday, 2 October – 2:46 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 17:46 UTC)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Saturday, 02 October — 12:00 AM JST (15:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Saturday, 02 October — 12:00 AM JST (15:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #37

Official

Latest observation

Tuesday, 23 November – 11:34 PM Christmas Island Time (CXT; 16:34 UTC)

Official forecasts

Australia Bureau of Meteorology

Tuesday, 23 November — 7:00 PM CXT (12:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tuesday, 23 November — 10:00 PM CXT (15:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #6

Latest observation

Tuesday, 9 November — 2:13 PM Mountain Standard Time (MST; 21:13 UTC)

Latest news

Tuesday, 9 November — 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Terry continues to hold on as a weak tropical depression

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Terry is tenuously maintaining its status as a tropical depression as it drifts westward this afternoon. Animated infrared imagery depicts pulsing bursts of deep convection which remain confined to the west of Terry's broad low-level circulation, which has become less defined over the past several hours. Scatterometer data reveals that Terry's low-level circulation is on the verge of opening into a trough.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, to include the aforementioned scatterometer data, indicate that Terry has maintained maximum winds around 45 kilometers per hour (25 knots) over the past twelve hours. The depression is moving westward along the southern periphery of a broad, deep-layered ridge situated to the north.

Forecast discussion

Tuesday, 9 November — 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Terry will degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday

Moderate mid-level shear continues to disrupt Terry's ability to maintain persistent and organized convection by allowing dry air to penetrate the depression's circulation from the north. Environmental conditions are not likely to improve over the next few days, and Terry could very well degenerate into an open trough later this evening.

Official forecast

Tuesday, 09 November — 2:00 PM MST (21:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #22

Other discussions

Global discussions

• Global outlook

Northern Atlantic

• 18L - Sam

Western Pacific

• 20W - Mindulle

Northern Indian

• 03B - Gulab

Latest observation

Saturday, 25 September — 11:08 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:08 UTC)

Latest news

Saturday, 25 September — 11:08 AM AST (15:08 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Teresa weakens into a subtropical depression

Satellite imagery analysis reveals that Teresa has been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. Animated multispectral imagery depicts Teresa's fully exposed whirl of low-level clouds, with a band of showers and thunderstorms displaced well to the north. Intensity estimates derived from recent scatterometer data indicate that Teresa's winds have decreased to around 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression has become nearly stationary as the mid-level low above the cyclone is blocked by a ridge to the east.

Forecast discussion

Saturday, 25 September — 11:08 AM AST (15:08 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Teresa is unlikely to redevelop this weekend

Teresa is not likely to redevelop as it struggles against an increasingly hostile environment this weekend. Strong westerly shear will prevent convection from reforming near the depression's low-level center. Additionally, the upper low aloft which has been helping to create the necessary instability for Teresa's convection will begin to fill as a ridge to the east blocks it from moving. Teresa is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later this evening and dissipate altogether by Sunday.

Official forecast

Saturday, 25 September — 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #4

Hour |

Other discussions

Northern Atlantic

• 18L - Sam

Northern Indian

03B - Shaheen

Latest observation

Saturday, 2 October — 2:23 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 18:23 UTC)

Official forecast

Saturday, 02 October — 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #13

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National Hurricane Center

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Latest observation

Tuesday, 9 November — 12:50 PM Pacific Standard Time (PST; 20:50 UTC)

Latest news

Tuesday, 9 November — 12:50 PM PST (20:50 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Sandra degenerates into a remnant low

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Sandra has succumbed to strong southerly shear this afternoon and has thus degenerated into a remnant low. Although Sandra produced limited deep convection earlier this morning as it entered the diurnal convective maximum, there has been a marked lack of persistent convection throughout the morning. Recent scatterometer data reveals that Sandra's low-level circulation has unraveled, becoming an open surface trough.

Strong southerly shear, combined with dry mid-level air and weakly convergent upper-level flow will prevent Sandra from regenerating as it drifts southwestward over the next few days.

Official forecast

Tuesday, 09 November — 1:00 PM PST (21:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #10

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National Hurricane Center

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Latest observation

Saturday, 6 November — 7:15 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 00:15 UTC)

Latest news

Saturday, 6 November — 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Eighteen remains poorly organized as it moves westward

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Eighteen has not undergone significant changes in strength or structure this afternoon. Animated infrared imagery depicts convective bursts firing up to the southwest and northeast of the depression's poorly organized and elongated low-level center. Despite the cyclone's disheveled low-level structure, upper-level winds remains strongly divergent and have helped the cyclone develop a well-established outflow pattern.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, along with recent scatterometer data, indicate that the depression is maintaining maximum one-minute sustained winds near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). Scatterometer data reveals that the depression's low-level circulation is poorly defined and just barely closed. The depression continues to move westward along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge situated to the north.

Forecast discussion

Saturday, 6 November — 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Modest strengthening is possible over the next few days

While the depression is moving through an otherwise favorable environment, the depression is not likely to strengthen until its tenuous low-level circulation manages to consolidate, which will be difficult given the cyclone's low-latitude position. Over the next few days, the depression will gradually gain latitude, turning west-northwestward. This may allow the depression to become more organized and strengthen. Global model guidance continues to show very little in the way of meaningful development through midweek.

Official forecast

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Northern Atlantic

• 18L - Sam

Western Pacific

• 03B - Mindulle

Latest observation

Sunday, 26 September – 3:31 PM India Standard Time (IST; 10:01 UTC)

Official forecasts

India Meteorological Department

Sunday, 26 September — 11:30 AM IST (06:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Sunday, 26 September — 2:30 PM IST (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #9

Latest observation

Thursday, 28 October – 12:42 PM Japan Standard Time (JST; 03:42 UTC)

Latest news

Thursday, 28 October – 12:42 PM JST (03:42 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Tropical storm conditions continue as Malou approaches Iwo Jima

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Malou's convective structure is gradually unraveling as the cyclone approaches Iwo Jima this afternoon. Animated infrared imagery depicts a large and ragged eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection that is weakening and becoming less organized as dry mid-level air penetrates the cyclone from the west. Malou continues to maintain a strong poleward outflow channel as the cyclone taps into the strong mid-latitude jet to the north.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Malou's maximum one-minute sustained winds are holding steady near 150 kilometers per hour (80 knots). Wind measurements from Iwo Jima Air Base indicate that tropical storm conditions have persisted on the island since midnight local time (15:00 UTC) and hurricane-force winds have begun in the past couple of hours. The strongest wind gust reported on the island was 141 kilometers per hour (76 knots) at 12:00 PM local time (03:00 UTC).

Forecast discussion

Thursday, 28 October – 12:42 PM JST (03:42 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Further intensification is possible later this afternoon

Malou is moving north-northeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge situated to the east. While southwesterly shear is helping to transport dry mid-level air into Malou's circulation, the cyclone remains over warm waters and beneath an area of enhanced upper-level winds which are helping to power a robust poleward outflow. This may enable the cyclone to at least maintain strength or even further strengthen

Latest observation

Sunday, 24 October – 3:31 PM Chamorro Standard Time (ChST; 05:31 UTC)

Latest news

Sunday, 24 October – 3:31 PM ChST (05:31 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The twenty-fifth cyclone of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season has formed

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure (previously designated as Invest 98W) situated a few hundred kilometers north of Yap has consolidated into the season's twenty-fifth tropical depression. Animated infrared imagery depicts deep convection wrapping into a more organized low-level center from the north and west; however, there remains a lack of defined convective banding. Water vapor imagery depicts a formative radial outflow pattern.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis, including recent scatterometer data, indicate that the cyclone is producing maximum one-minute sustained winds around 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression is currently moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge situated to the northeast.

Forecast discussion

Sunday, 24 October – 3:31 PM ChST (05:31 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Gradual strengthening is expected as the depression moves northwestward overnight

Over the next few hours, the depression will turn north-northwestward and track along the western periphery of the steering ridge, remaining on this trajectory through Thursday. A combination of weak southwesterly shear, abundant mid-level moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strengthening upper-level divergence will allow the depression to gradually strengthen over the next few days. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm strength by Monday morning and become a typhoon on Thursday.

Global model guidance suggests that a low pr

Latest observation

Sunday, 19 September — 12:42 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 04:42 UTC)

Latest news

Sunday, 19 September — 12:42 AM AST (04:42 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The sixteenth cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic season forms east of the Leeward Islands

A well-defined area of low pressure moving west-northwestward across the tropical central Atlantic has sustained sufficiently organized deep convection over the past several hours that the National Hurricane Center has upgraded it to a tropical depression. Animated infrared imagery depicts formative convective bands wrapping into an expansing central dense overcast from the north and east, while water vapor imagery depicts a robust and well-established poleward outflow channel.

The National Hurricane Center has set the depression's initial intensity at 30 knots (35 miles per hour), though this is admittedly lower than estimates based on satellite imagery and could be conservative. A lack of recent scatterometer data is also making it more difficult to ascertain the cyclone's strength. In any case, the depression is moving toward the west-northwest under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the northeast.

Forecast discussion

Sunday, 19 September — 12:42 AM AST (04:42 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Modest strengthening is expected to continue through the weekend

The cyclone has a small window of opportunity to undergo further development before the environment begins to deteriorate early next week. While the depression is sitting beneath an upper-level low which is powering its robust outflow pattern, it is approaching stronger southerly winds along the upper low's southwestern periphery. Though the depression is expected to reach tropical storm strength overnight, it may struggle to undergo significant development as shear and dry air counteract a war

Latest observation

Thursday, 7 October – 7:23 PM Japan Standard Time (JST; 10:23 UTC)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Thursday, 07 October — 3:00 PM JST (06:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Thursday, 07 October — 6:00 PM JST (09:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #1

Latest observation

Wednesday, 27 October – 3:14 AM Indochina Time (ICT; 20:14 UTC)

Latest news

Wednesday, 27 October – 3:14 AM ICT (20:14 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

A tropical depression has developed off the south-central coast of Vietnam

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a poorly organized tropical depression persists off the south-central coast of Vietnam this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts deep convection displaced westward over southern Vietnam by strengthening easterly shear. Water vapor imagery indicates that the depression has established a dual-channel outflow pattern thanks to the presence of an upper-level anticyclone situated to the north of the cyclone.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the depression is producing maximum one-minute sustained winds near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression is moving toward the west along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge situated to the north.

Forecast discussion

Wednesday, 27 October – 3:14 AM ICT (20:14 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The depression will not likely strengthen before making landfall later this morning

With the exception of strengthening easterly shear, environmental conditions over the western South China Sea remain otherwise favorable, with warm sea waters and abundant moisture. However, the cyclone's close proximity to the shore, along with cooler waters immediately adjacent to the coast will limit further development before the cyclone's low-level center crosses the shore later this morning. Locally heavy rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides as the depression moves farther inland on Tuesday.

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Note: The Japan Meteorological Agency is not issuing advisories for this system

Latest observation

Wednesday, 13 October – 5:48 PM China Standard Time (CST; 09:48 UTC)

Latest news

Wednesday, 13 October – 5:48 PM CST (09:48 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Kompasu maintains strength as it reaches the eastern coast of Hainan

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Kompasu made landfall just south of the city of Qionghai in eastern Hainan at around 5:00 PM local time (09:00 UTC). Although the storm had become less organized as it closed in on the island this afternoon, animated infrared imagery depicted a robust convective burst forming along the coast which has since wanted as the cyclone's low-level center moved farther inland.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicates that Kompasu had been producing maximum one-minute sustained winds near 100 kilometers per hour (55 knots) prior to landfall. It is likely that the storm has weakened over the past hour or so as its low-level center is moving over the rough terrain of the island. Kompasu is moving westward as it follows the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge situated to the southeast.

Forecast discussion

Wednesday, 13 October – 5:48 PM CST (09:48 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Kompasu will likely not restrengthen over the Gulf of Tonkin

Kompasu is expected to move quickly across the island of Hainan this evening and emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin by Thursday morning. Strong northwesterly shear will prevent further development as the storm moves quickly across the gulf toward northern Vietnam. Kompasu is likely to make landfall near the town of Hoàng Mai on Thursday afternoon. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will spread across portions of Vietnam which were just affected by Lionrock earlier this week.

Official forecasts

Latest observation

Sunday, 10 October — 7:46 AM Central Daylight Time (CDT; 12:46 UTC)

Latest news

Sunday, 10 October — 7:46 AM CDT (12:46 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The sixteenth depression of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season has formed

After a nearly month-long stretch without tropical activity over the eastern Pacific, a tropical depression has formed a few hundred kilometers to the south of Acapulco. A tropical wave which originated over the western Caribbean crossed over into the extreme eastern Pacific late last week, gradually developing to the south of Mexico. Though the wave remained disorganized through the weekend, recent scatterometer data revealed that the disturbance had developed a closed low-level center and had become a tropical depression.

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Sixteen at 4:00 AM Central Daylight Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the depression is becoming better organized, with deep convection situated close to its low-level center increasing in intensity and coverage. Animated infrared imagery shows that the bulk of this convection remains displaced slightly to the southwest of the partially exposed center by modest northerly to northeasterly shear.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis and recent scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone is producing maximum sustained winds near 30 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico.

Forecast discussion

Sunday, 10 October — 7:46 AM CDT (12:46 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

Steady intensification is expected over the next couple of days

The depression will remain on a west-northwestward track through Tuesday morning, remaining well to the south and west of Mexico. As the

Latest observation

Sunday, 17 October – 2:49 AM Wake Time (WKT; 14:49 UTC)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Sunday, 17 October — 12:00 AM WKT (12:00 UTC)

(Note: Wind speeds have been converted from ten-minute values to one-minute values.)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Sunday, 17 October — 3:00 AM WKT (15:00 UTC) | JTWC Warning #27

Latest observation

Sunday, 19 September — 1:20 PM Cabo Verde Time (CVT; 09:00 UTC)

Latest news

Sunday, 19 September — 1:20 PM CVT (09:00 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The seventeenth cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic season forms

An area of low pressure moving northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic has sustained sufficiently organized convection over the past several hours that the National Hurricane Center has upgraded it to a tropical depression. Animated infrared imagery depicts a series of convective bursts spreading northward along the cyclone's western periphery, while water vapor imagery depicts an expanding anticyclonic outflow pattern.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the depression is producing maximum sustained winds near 55 kilometers per hour (30 knots). The depression is moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge which extends over the Cabo Verde islands from Africa.

Forecast discussion

Sunday, 19 September — 1:20 PM CVT (09:00 UTC) | Discussion by /u/giantspeck

The cyclone is not expected to be a threat to land

The depression is moving through a marginally supportive environment, where dry mid-level air is heavily offsetting weak shear and a warm ocean surface. The depression is not likely to undergo significant development as it moves west-northwestward over the next several days, reaching a peak intensity near 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots) on Monday.

Official forecast

Sunday, 19 September — 8:00 AM CVT (09:00 UTC) | NHC Advisory #1