Does anybody know why corner infielders (1B, 3B) don't react to ground balls at all sometimes? I feel like I'm hitting the stick in the right direction, and even if I dive, it seems like they dive forward instead of the direction I'm holding. I've seen it with poor fielders like Stan Musial and Frank Thomas, and I've seen it with maxed out fielders like Nolan Arenado. Is this just part of The Show that we all have to deal with or am I doing something wrong?
I'm usually just a dynasty player for fantasy baseball, but I always track ADP to understand how the market is valuing players during the offseason. It's a great way to find players that I think are undervalued as trade targets before draft season gets underway and there's a lot more content to consume leading to ADP's rise.
Everyone loves a good post-hype breakout and in dynasty its hard to pry away a former top prospect underperforming for the manager's fear of selling too low. But while I've scanned for targets I found two guys that are remarkably similar in terms of profile, but have a huge gap in NFBC ADP for early drafts.
| Player | ADP | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 146 | 77 | 208 |
| Player B | 276 | 213 | 357 |
Both players play the same position on the infield. Both were consensus top prospects and both will enter the 2022 season at the age of 25.
As we look under the hood, their recent production was remarkably similar and Steamer projections value both very equally.
| Player | Triple Slash | HR | SB | wRC+ | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A 2021 | .257/.316/.373 | 6 | 9 | 88 | 7.8% | 22% |
| Player A 2022 Projection | .265/.331/.424 | 17 | 12 | 104 | 8.4% | 20.7% |
| Player B 2021 | .247/.305/.342 | 7 | 4 | 75 | 7.4% | 26.6% |
| Player B 2022 Projection | .265/.326/.413 | 14 | 5 | 98 | 8.0% | 20.2% |
Two things stand out as bigger differences. Player B's K-Rate and Player A's SB potential. Player B is projected to improve in terms of his K-rate for 2022, based on his even 20% K-rate in 2020 and sub-20% track record in the minors. If he makes more consistent contact it could unlock his full potential, though Steamer doesn't love his profile even projecting a 20% K-rate.
Player A brings a bit more SB potential, but is it enough to warrant a difference of 130 picks in a redraft? I would argue no, unless we dig deeper and find more confidence in the rest of his offensive potential.
That is...eerily similar. At this point, all you can do is nitpick. Player A really succeeded defensively and could get safer PAs. Player B is shown to hit the ball harder more consistently, and since he's biggest issue in 2021 seemed to be his K-Rate there is something to like if he's hitting the ball more in 2022.
The disappointing part of both profiles is the Barrel Rate. Both have strong Max EV showing their power
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Seeing a lot of people ask why they would move him from catcher. All this talk about them wanting to move him to 3B isn't them wasting a good catcher that'd been playing that position their whole life.
The position takes a huge toll on the body, it's possible they didn't expect his hitting to be this good this early and now they would rather not ruin his knees by having him be a full time catcher. Or they think the current catchers are good enough and he would have more value playing another position.
Perhaps they like Moreno + Current catches more than what they think they can get for 3B + Moreno at catcher.
More than likely it's just GMs talking and trying to hype up their prospects and trade value.
