Hello my fellow Apes 🦍🦍🦍,
In case any of you were actually wondering if the price drop in after hours was real, FEAR NOT, it was done with EXTREMELY LOW VOLUMES, so much so that it barely moved the VWAP.
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I still know nothing, I can't do math good. PLEASE don't listen to me! Obligatory 🚀🚀🚀
TLDR: The $27 (15%) price drop in after hours only brought the VWAP down by $3 (2%). This clearly shows that the price was lowered with very low volumes and not indicative of the average price the stock has been trading at . 💎✋🚀🚀🚀
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Note: VWAP 'resets' each day, therefore you would see it drop from after hours to pre-market but this isn't because of some HUGE increase in volume, it's just set up to see average trends within the day.
For those that don't know, here is what Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is all about
Essentially it is the average price that a stock has been traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. This means that if a price changes with very little volume (comparatively), then it will have little effect on the VWAP.
A great example of how the VWAP shows what a stock is actually trading at, take a look at the VWAP (purple line) from March 10 when there was that huge short attack. As you can see, the VWAP barely registered it since the volumes were quite low at the very low prices.
https://preview.redd.it/qymzm5ze9wo61.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d3d386394602cf83352cfd552dd88f1bacf0cf
Now let's take a look at today's after hours (colored in blue). You can the VWAP is WAY above the current price line and barely registers the drop in price. This is because the volumes are comparatively so low during AH that it has a minimal effect.
https://preview.redd.it/cr4icdh39wo61.png?width=1181&format=png&auto=webp&s=659a20138599dacc1f8fc049c2f02d79d1122507
During after hours, the price dropped $27 dollars, but it only dropped the VWAP $3 and it is still trending up in the $180s. Shorts are clearly trying to make it seem like there is disappointment in the earnings call, giving MSM all the ammo they need to write negative articles. Too bad apes can't read.
Ps, If you have a free TradingView account, it is not using direct NYSE data, it is using something c
... keep reading on reddit ➡
Stumbled upon that trying to figure out what that means for SPRTans for a baseline valuation of the stock. So if the stock price soars prior to closing any ideas what this means for us?
Edit - so it's apparently a common tactic to balloon the prices of stock before merger and back out a day or two before they close. Could explain why they added that to the contract as GMEE isn't publically traded. I'd love to get my hands on some details here. Could also explain why it's so heavily shorted. Curious what the fellow SPRTans think (the non-smooth brain types but I love you all!) ? I'm trying to graduate from smooth brain to wrinkled brain myself!
I learned about VWAP from an episode of Chat with Traders featuring Zach Hurwitz, who calls himself "the VWAP trader." I remember him saying "don't take my word for it, just put it on your chart." I did and I immediately noticed its value for intraday options trading.
A few things I noticed about VWAP:
-
The price of high volume equities like SPY crosses the VWAP line a few times a day.
-
The slope of the VWAP lines correlates with future price action. The longer the slope has remained positive or negative, the stronger the correlation with future price action.
-
The rate of change of the VWAP slope (VWAP momentum) will peak slightly before a price reversal. This is a leading indicator. It's the only leading indicator I've ever seen on a chart.
How to use for intraday trading:
If VWAP slope is positive, err on the long side. If VWAP slope is negative, err on the short side.
In general, stay long while VWAP slope is positive and stay short when VWAP slope is negative.
If price is below VWAP and VWAP slope is positive, buy. If price is above VWAP and VWAP slope is negative, sell.
Use price history to see how far price moves from VWAP. Use this distance as your support and resistance levels. You will get a couple big trades a day when price moves far from VWAP.
VWAP momentum will peak slightly before price reversal. Use VWAP momentum peak to time reversals.
Use divergence between price action between VWAP momentum and price direction to gauge whether a market is bullish or bearish. If price is descending while VWAP momentum is positive, for example, that is a bearish signal.
Here's an image for illustration:
https://i.imgur.com/sW9rSjO.png
Am I completely out of my gourd?
Important benchmark to provide insight into the trend & value:
- Calculation factors in volume
- Enables to buy low & sell high
- Can act as support & resistance
Read: http://bit.ly/Kickacad_vwap
I am using a trading platform called Trading212.
I'd like to get the hang of using the VWAP. Using a practice account of course.
However it's asking me to enter a "period". They have suggested a period of 14.
I've googled everywhere and nobody has mentioned which period to use. I've even tweeted at Andrew Aziz and he said there's no period.. at least in the VWAP he uses. So I'm 250% confused.
Any advice?
https://preview.redd.it/lgqptcrophq51.png?width=478&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9dcd02e3181c4e015b2b189c62a35fdc3f59359
Let us begin by assuming nominal 1 Day charting periods on the GameStop stock chart.
Now, let us review what volume-weighted average price is (note that an intra-period assessment of average price is typically applied using the low, high, and closing price (in error).
https://preview.redd.it/m56us7hkhm981.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=1537d3c872448b391636dd12328afbde572be0b0
Let us assume that a 7-day rundown in volume and price is terminated by a discovered price support after such a rundown. Let us create a term called Volume Weighted Price Support, where we analyze the volume-weighted price over the day that preceded the weeklong rundown.
https://preview.redd.it/cankb29mhm981.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b346d847a422ad9c72cd8543d6beb3691d66dc28
Let us also assume that a weeklong runup in volume and price is terminated at time T 0 by a new price resistance after such a runup. Let us create a term called Volume Weighted Price Resistance, where we analyze the volume-weighted price over the day that preceded the weeklong rundown.
https://preview.redd.it/6b25r8cnhm981.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=d502128eb20bc5d9f66ddf84a340de10146e3ba7
First, let us seek the previous price resistance from the chart:
GameStop's Previous Resistance (albeit forced) was $508.04 in Pre-Market on 28JAN2021
Now, let us seek a VWPR from 8 to 7 business days (occurred on January 19th): $40.5 Average on (VWPR 8 to 7 days) across total traded Price * Volume (PV) of $3,026,160,000 on that day.
Further, let us use this historical data (of volumetrically-reflected value) to make a future prediction about a new price resistance (final divided by initial as a weighting coefficient) and applied to the same expectations of PV.
https://preview.redd.it/x22sunsphm981.png?width=998&format=png&auto=webp&s=2174600e2094df8467d150ede6b3e5842d549aa1
However, since the previous VWPR from T0 minus {8 to 7 } days of 3,026,160,000 $*shares is 13.9537x that of the current, "New 1Day PV" of {216,872,100 $*shares} , then by primary assumption of volumetrically-reflected value in the past being equivalent to volumetrically-reflected value in the future, this new price resistance has a predictive quality only with equally applied reflective price * volume. Therefore, we m
... keep reading on reddit ➡Hey folks, not sure how much demand is out there, but thought I would start a YouTube series teaching programming with a focus on capital markets.
Here's my first video, where I walk through how to calculate a volume weighted average share price in R using data wrangling techniques.
https://youtu.be/S0n3o0HwNPU
Will be doing first series in R. Starting off with the basics like data wrangling, visualization and regression, will then move into more complicated topics like deep learning, application development, trading strategies, equity analysis/valuation, alternative data analysis, econometrics, text analysis, etc... From there, I'll do similar courses in Python, SQL, C++ and then JavaScript.
Since this is my first time doing something like this, any feedback on pace/content/quality would be appreciated. Hope you enjoy. Let me know if you have any questions or if you get stuck.
Cheers, Joel
ps if you're interested in future videos please subscribe to my channel! happy to take requests as well
I found this fact rummaging through the Wikipedia page, however it was not elaborated any further and searching for convexity in regards to options on Google did not bring satisfying results
Any ELI5 or resource that explains it would be appreciated
Plus today's volume after 1 hour since market open is already approaching the average total volume over the last few days.
I understand seeing the price drop hurts but making incorrect complaints isn't a good look. And it's nothing we haven't seen before.
Big movements on low volume is just the result of apes owning the float multiple times over and not letting go of that shit.
Just relax apes. MOASS is coming. Trust in the DD and BUY and HODL
“On September 20, 2013, Verenium announced that it had entered into an agreement to be acquired by BASF Corporation. The all-cash tender offer of $4.00 per share represented a 56% premium to the volume-weighted average closing price of Verenium’s common stock in the previous six months. Athyrium’s term loan was repaid, warrants exercised, and shares tendered.”
Bottom Line: Athyrium is and has been taking advantage of capital markets to make a profit in many different ways. An IPO, shorting, structured loans, warrants … and now they have milked capital markets after bringing the stock price down they are going to sell it at a premium of the stupid low price it’s got to:
https://www.athyrium.com/case-study-verenium.php
https://preview.redd.it/7bsgri8toxx61.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=80de998d8609e20fcb50ab5401dbd61f949e98cd
Why the hell isn't there a Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for paid and received trades?
I learned about VWAP from an episode of Chat with Traders featuring Zach Hurwitz, who calls himself "the VWAP trader." I remember him saying "don't take my word for it, just put it on your chart." I did and I immediately noticed its value for intraday options trading.
A few things I noticed about VWAP:
-
The price of high volume equities like SPY crosses the VWAP line a few times a day.
-
The slope of the VWAP lines correlates with future price action. The longer the slope has remained positive or negative, the stronger the correlation with future price action.
-
The rate of change of the VWAP slope (VWAP momentum) will peak slightly before a price reversal. This is a leading indicator. It's the only leading indicator I've ever seen on a chart.
How to use for intraday trading:
If VWAP slope is positive, err on the long side. If VWAP slope is negative, err on the short side.
In general, stay long while VWAP slope is positive and stay short when VWAP slope is negative.
If price is below VWAP and VWAP slope is positive, buy. If price is above VWAP and VWAP slope is negative, sell.
Use price history to see how far price moves from VWAP. Use this distance as your support and resistance levels. You will get a couple big trades a day when price moves far from VWAP.
VWAP momentum will peak slightly before price reversal. Use VWAP momentum peak to time reversals.
Use divergence between price action between VWAP momentum and price direction to gauge whether a market is bullish or bearish. If price is descending while VWAP momentum is positive, for example, that is a bearish signal.
Here's an image for illustration:
https://i.imgur.com/sW9rSjO.png
Am I completely out of my gourd?
Hey folks, not sure how much demand is out there, but thought I would start a YouTube series teaching programming with a focus on capital markets.
Here's my first video, where I walk through how to calculate a volume weighted average share price in R using data wrangling techniques.
https://youtu.be/S0n3o0HwNPU
Will be doing first series in R. Starting off with the basics like data wrangling, visualization and regression, will then move into more complicated topics like deep learning, application development, trading strategies, equity analysis/valuation, alternative data analysis, econometrics, text analysis, etc... From there, I'll do similar courses in Python, SQL, C++ and then JavaScript.
Since this is my first time doing something like this, any feedback on pace/content/quality would be appreciated. Hope you enjoy. Let me know if you have any questions or if you get stuck.
Cheers, Joel
ps if you're interested in future videos please subscribe to my channel! happy to take requests as well
