Bernanke had the same issues at the end of 2008. Go pull up a chart and compare equity markets to a decline in the Fed’s balance sheet then: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Welcome to the world of debt monetization, where the government buys its own debt en masse. We’ve been robbing Peter to pay Paul and the US and the Fed are both Peter and Paul.
Edit: I’m not suggesting that you buy or sell, or do any of the flip flap trip trap trader stuff. I’m holding and continue to DCA stocks and funds I believe in. I’ve learned better than to try to time the market. Do whatever you think is best for your own situation and risk tolerance. Not financial advice of course, do your own research and be skeptical of everything you read.
This would create major, major headaches throughout the year.
DFV was right: We are not locked in here with them. They are locked in here with us.
I wrote a post which unfortunately got deleted for wrong reasons, I hope it gets undeleted, where I elaborate on that thesis.
Somebody pointed out that ATM puts are being used to suppress the price, this is expensive and only works temporary.
I expect this to go on over year's end so that they can minimize short losses on their balance sheets.
There is literally no point to my question at all, I'm just over-tired and my brain did this. Maybe the universe is just cash money.
In the world of addiction science, there's a concept known as decisional balance. Moving from one set of behavior to another requires an internal commitment to change; once I decide to change my behavior, I'll continue to make that decision.
How does that flip happen? It's commonly seen in former smokers or former over-eaters. They went from making one set of life decisions to making an entirely different set of decisions.
The process is called decisional balance. The decision goes like this: my current state of doing things has pros and cons, while a behavior change also has pros and cons.
All of my current decisions are predicated on the idea that
A: the pros of my current state, plus the cons of behavior change
are more valuable, apparent, obvious, and important
than B: the pros of behavior change and cons of the status quo..
THE GOAL IS TO FLIP THAT.
Read it again, because the idea takes a moment to sink in. It's useful to use something like the following worksheet to put your thoughts down and give consideration to your behavior and reasons for change. http://www.nova.edu/gsc/forms/client_handout_3_1_decisional_balance_exercise.pdf
Why or How does this process work? Scientists aren't fully sure. Some people kick addiction quickly, others suffer for years, and even more succumb to addiction for the remainder of their lives. But decisional balance techniques are more useful in helping people quit addictive behaviors than quitting cold turkey.
The reason is neuro-science. There is one part of the brain, called the nucleus accumbens, that lights up when cravings surge. The only thing to override the nucleus accumbens is the pre-frontal cortex or decision-making center of the brain. Decisional balance allows the decision-making center to recognize, analyze, and let go of the craving surge that your lesser mind experiences. (in fact: next time you consider relapse, try letting go of the craving instead.)
Still, this doesn't tell us how to use decisional balance to our advantage. Well, in the process of making the decision to relapse our mind has chosen section A: the pros of Fap and the cons of NoFap. Our mind has said those categories are more valuable than section B: the pros of NoFap and cons of Fap.
Relapse mindset:
Pros of Fap: instant gratification, sexual release, attractive "women", limitless stimuli, escape from otherwise shitty reality.
Cons to NoFap: sexual frustration, mentally challenging, requires
... keep reading on reddit ➡Hey All,
Would love to find out who is bagholding squeeze stocks and see if we can over over some balance sheets / DD to help make sense of things! Doesn't matter which stock but I'm curious after most of the memes stock retail loves have been getting slaughtered, which stocks people are still HODLin and why you are holding them.
What stocks are you guys curious about talking about and looking long term things. We can cover balance sheets, warrants, debt structure, etc
Give me some tickers to talk about!
I'll be running to a VA appointment this afternoon but would love to answer somethings this evening.
>"Nearly every developer has borrowings in disguise. The sector's debt problem is worse than what you see," said He Siwei, attorney at Hui Ye Law Firm.
>
>Chinese developers owed 33.5 trillion yuan ($5.24 trillion)through various channels at the end of June, Nomura estimates, based on official statistics, adding "there are definitely other obscure financing channels yet to be covered."
>
>Private bonds issued by shell companies in offshore locations have emerged as a new concern.
>
>In a note this month, Fitch ratings agency said that Fantasia Holdings Group (1777.HK), a property developer which has since defaulted, had recently told it "for the first time" that it had $150 million of private bonds that do not appear to have been reported in its financial statements.
>
>Fantasia did not respond to a request for comment. The company had over $4 billion worth of cash at the end of June and two weeks before it defaulted said that it had "ample capital".
There hasn't been a lot of coverage on this but article like this is kind of scaring me. They say there won't be any serious problem in the states and the US stock market. Any thoughts?
During today's conference call analyst was not happy about JPM's performance. One analyst asked how JPM can justify spending $15 billion in investment without showing any targets for growth.
The CEO responded:
>Like Jeremy was talking about the card stuff, the return, I told our folks that we’re going to -- our card growth this year, but they were skeptical. The American consumer is very strong. Our products and services are very good. Chase, we call now self-directed investing has $55 billion. I think Robinhood has, I think, 80, the last time I saw, something like that. We’re not seeing your -- bragging about our product because I would say it’s not good enough yet. But it’s got $55 billion without us doing virtually anything and or no marketing and no real stuff like that. So, there’s a lot of stuff coming. The competition, we have to face. Some of these acquisitions we made will contribute to profit, maybe not exactly in 2022. But -- and I mentioned the deployment of the balance sheet. We’re pretty conservative in deploying the balance sheet. That may not always be true.”
A couple of questions:
-
What does "deploying the balance sheet" mean?
-
What is your overall take on this call. JPM seemed pretty evasive about how much return one could expect from these sky high expenses.
-
Why did JPM and Citi not do well but WFC went up. WFC seems to have spent even more money on their credit card advertising than JPM (I see WFC ads everywhere).
-
What do you think will happen with Bank of AMerica next week?
Its due in 5 hours for financial modeling. Any tips so i dont ruin my grade? Plus how do u find prediction for proceeds from disposal of property and equipment? I wanna predict for 2021
The Balance Sheet (BS) is a very helpful retirement planning tool. The BS shows what your net worth is at a single moment in time. I see so many people talking about whether they are "on track" or not, without knowing how much they (think) they need in retirement and what they have in that moment in time.
Do you have a BS, and if not, why? I've been using one for 20 years and it is the ONLY way that I know if I am going to be able to retire, period.
Whatever you do find, add to it "off balance sheet" debt.
Since the FED is privately owned, they can do off balance sheet money creation unbeknownst to anyone.
This ripple in money supply would, in normal cases, be somewhat detectable: UNLESS THEY MASS INFLATE GLOBALLY-PURPOSELY FUCK SUPPLY CHAINS-CREATE CHAOS THROUGH SCAMDEMICS-AND ANTAGONIZE REGIONAL CONFLICT!
This would obfuscate to an extent the thievery going on.
The visible end of this spectrum includes the FED buying real assets out of the stock market.
Think about how criminal this is, they're creating digits on a computer screen and buying real tangible assets!
This is all done under the guise of "QE" and "maintaining the economy during a pandemic".
Horseshit!
The proper action should have been contracting the economy during the pandemic, not inflating it. This would have taken pressure off supply chains as well as cooled the stock market which would have staved off what will NOW happen in the near future- Collapse!
I digress...anyway back to the FED:
At the same time the FED is issuing debt to the USA, creating a treasury for that debt in market, and then buying it back itself as their is no market for negative yield treasuries.
This is crazy, and I have looked for a rational...Why?
Well, the only plausible explanation is the great Ponzi is falling apart and they're looking to crash it all OR they are looking to inflate away the past debt to the detriment of everyone, especially older people on fixed incomes.
When you guys see the world as I do, you'll understand why my silver buys appear FOMO.
Because they are!
There is a global game of musical chairs going on, and I don't want to be one of the billions of idiots left standing.
To me that's worth a Premium!
For example yahoo finance and MarketWatch report thier balance sheet as having only $47billion total asset but their 31% stake in Tencent alone should be $160+Billion.
I was thinking maybe it wasn't listed but I don't see why it wouldn't, but if we were to take out Tencent equity share, they don't have anything else combined to be worth this much.
Does anyone know what's going on?
Thanks
TLDR: Well it took them long enough, but Fitch has finally downgraded Evergrande to Restricted Default kicking off the world's largest bankruptcy since Lehman Brothers triggered the Global Financial Crisis. Kaisa was also downgraded to RD as expected. A look at the details of the downgrade indicates investors in this dogshit debt will be lucky to recover pennies on the dollar if anything as most of the assets on their balance sheets are worth far less than the companies claim. When MOASS, precious?
Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNMTma4DuSQ
Well the day is finally here. For some reason it took them 3 days, but Fitch has finally deigned to downgrade Evergrade from 'C' to 'RD' or Restricted Default after the company failed to make it's bond inerest payment that was due November 6th prior to the expiration of it's 30 day grace period. This triggers cross-default provisions in all offshore Evergrande bonds denominated in USD (~$19 billion total). Kaisa group was also downgraded to RD for the same reason.
Link to Reuters story on the downgrades: https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-kaisa-kicks-off-12-bln-debt-restructuring-after-missing-pay-date-source-2021-12-09/
A look at the actual Fitch downgrade notes reveals some interesting details:
- Senior Unsecured Debt maintains it's C rating as those investors would be given a spot at the front of the line to recover their money ahead of others. However Fitch gives them a recovery rating of 'RR6' meaning they will likely recover only 0-10% of the face value of the debt.
- Most 'assets' on Evergrande's balance sheet will take a substantial haircut in liquidation proving what we've known all along, that these developers assets aren't worth anywhere near what they claim on their balance sheets.
- Evergrande's auto and EV business likely isn't worth shit since it will probably sell for less than the debt carried by those subsidiaries. Evergrande's purported 'pivot' to electric vehicles in recent weeks appears to have been nothing more than a media stunt aimed to capitalize on the ridiculous valuations given to the likes of Nio and Rivian.
Link to Fitch notes on Evergrande downgrade: [https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-evergrande-subsidiaries-hengda-tianji-to-restricted-def
... keep reading on reddit ➡The Federal Reserve added $4.5 trillion to its balance sheet during the pandemic as part of its bond buying program, without congressional approval. This injected tremendenous amounts of liquidity in capital markets. As part of monetary policy / quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve is supposed to offload the funds over time, though has repeatedly failed to do so in the past because of ramifications in equity markets. Take the example of Ben Bernanke attempting to do so at the end of 2008. Holdings in the Fed's balance sheet were offloaded, this coincided with a steep drop in equity markets, and purchases were resumed thereafter by the Fed. Therefore, I question the ability of the Fed to ever be able to get the close to 9 trillion total that it has accumulated in the last 13 years or so off of its balance sheet. In my mind, this then begs the question and sets the tone for the discussion. Are the Fed's actions here actually monetary policy? If they forever keep these funds on their balance sheet, does this constitute government spending without congressional approval?
Central question: Do you feel that the Federal Reserve should have the authority to add $4.5 trillion to its balance sheet without congressional approval as it did during the pandemic?
Why should the Fed, which has been jawboning about supposedly pending rate hikes for the last 13 years, suddenly decide it's going to get serious about fighting inflation and tightening? Answer: it's not. How does the Fed plan to reduce its bloated $9 trillion balance sheet when investors would be complete morons to buy U.S. debt with an interest rate far below that of real inflation? They won't, meaning the Fed will hold that debt until it expires, is repudiated, or is printed away (most likely). These fraudsters have no intention of tightening. "Putting the wheels in motion" isn't the same as actually HIKING, which Jerome Powell will find endless excuses to keep deferring. Never, ever pay attention to what the Fed says, because it's all lies and bullshit. Only pay attention to what they do or don't do.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/fed-minutes-december-2021.html
The Federal Reserve at its December meeting began plans to start cutting the amount of bonds it is holding, with members saying that a reduction in the balance sheet likely will start sometime after the central bank begins raising interest rates, according to minutes released Wednesday.
While officials did not make any determination about when the Fed will start rolling off the nearly $8.3 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it is holding, statements out of the meeting indicated that process could begin in 2022, possibly in the next several months.
I am curious, when they sell the securities, it must recieve cash in exchange, can they destroy the cash? Do the hand the money to the federal government? Do they just hold on to the cash for later?
For simplicity lets assume this scenario:
Fed creates reserves. Fed uses its reserves to buy bonds from a private bank. The private bank now has reserves in its account with the fed. Suppose the private bank wants to use that money it asks for cash in exchange for the reserves, since the money supply is increasing, the treasury prints more money and gives it to the bank? Now assume the government taxed all that money (in cash not electronic) back and paid the bond due, the federal reserve will be sitting with physical cash? Can the federal reserve destroy the cash as it winds down its balance sheet? What exactly happens here, will really appreciate help.
For new investors in AMRS I want to show how the income statement of 2021 (TTM in the picture) will change in 2022 due to two numbers that will improve significantly. The first one is the "cost of revenue" which is the cost related to operation. In the first half of 2022 the new production plant Barra Bonita will go into operation. According to management this means that Amyris does no longer rely on third parties to rent out their production facilities. Currently Amyris produces large amounts of their products via third parties which is very costly. We can expect a decrease of 50% in "cost of revenue" after the new plant is in use as all fermentation is shifted there. This means we could reach a positive "operating income" already next year. The second number I want to refer to is the huge "Other Non Operating Income Expenses" which I believe are mainly costs related to legacy dept that AMRS has accumulated (interests etc.). Due to the recent capital raise used for paying back this high-interest depths we can expect this number to be much smaller next year. All in all this means we will come much closer to profitability even the 2021 TTM income statement looks a bit nasty, it will look quite tasty next year. Correct me if I am wrong... cheers.
https://preview.redd.it/yrfmsn1ayv681.jpg?width=758&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b555dee534cb90bb8704f279ba3cb43068e97e9
