Disclaimer: This not my style. Skip this whole part entirely and just go down to enjoy your bullish DD on GME below, because anything hereafter is just my stomach turning around. >!And that´s it. I literally want to stop writing at this point. I even considered how I phrase this. This is the beginning of this DD and I have no strength left. It´s not even due to GME, for the curious Ape´s that couldn´t follow my advice, but no matter how much I Ape this down, use Emojis you all like or idk what stuff you would like to see, but this topic...idk. I am currently sitting in front of my PC and I hope I am delusional, because I am realizing a scheme that shouldn´t exist. And I don´t mean naked shorting. Every dot I input is literally me taking a break.!<
I will now level the playingfield with basics, that should have never been hidden. That should have been taught in school every day until you can preach it.
Hidden behind a network of institutions, numbers, words, terms, silence and individuals.
And the inter-connection how I.O.U. beyond the existing shares availability of GME at previously confirmed 140% being shorted is sanding the whole system. So let´s begin.
You probably heard from this as statistics, but I will make you now realize just how small this 0.01% is.
https://preview.redd.it/yz9d6j7od5r61.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7b52120d0800cfe2d3b7ea5e7911961f3d026f9
Technically speaking, as ridiculous as this may sound, the difference between poor and rich is much smaller than the abyss separating the top 0.1% from the stupendously wealthy 0.01%.
Just to put this into perspective. I have some more graphs, but I guess you can imagine how this accumulates from hundreds of years, just to be passed on to your child, or here - close to 50 years in this case, before we even had the tools to map this.
Which is only what we can see I should stress.
Sounds ridiculous? Then let´s zoom in.
https://preview.redd.it/t8a2i37pd5r61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=86b699e6f5630b8fdf58c20dc7e4354764037a5f
Now then, who belongs to these 0.01%? Numbers are uninteresting, we like 🚀🚀
Well to be frank, no one knows. I refered to this in a previous comment, but while the boards and names of some banks are visible, some individuals - you are not even allowed to post pictures from, because you never receive the license to do so.
**They are a myth, like Randall Smith from Alden Global Capital. But there are
... keep reading on reddit ➡There are plenty of reasons to believe we are at or near the top of a bubble. When wall of kelp and river Merfolk pump, something is amiss, and dumb money is officially in the game.
It’s no secret that an obscene amount of fiat money has been printed around the world in an attempt by central banks to prevent economic collapse. The consumer-price index, a tool often used by government entities to deceive the public into believing we aren’t actual seeing inflation, is a joke and a lie. ANYONE leading a family life during this climate can tell you that inflation is REAL and it is nowhere near the 1-2 percent the FED is claiming. So, how do we protect ourselves, our capital, and our investments?
One way to do so is to stay out of cash and invest into commodities, collectibles, and precious metals. Or at least, most people think so. Personally, I’m using magic the gathering cards as one of my vehicles to hedge against the risk of inflation. However, it feels like we are at or near the top of a collectibles bubble, and as if we are in a seller’s market. That is one of the points of inflection for discussion that I’m curious to see how others feel. Hopefully, doing so without being super toxic.
Are magic cards a good vehicle to hedge against inflation? Do you think inflation is a huge risk? Do you think the OPPOSITE can happen, and there may be a sell off because of market collapse, and money goes into bonds due to the FED being forced to finally raise interest rates, and as a result, magic cards fall in price because those in financial distress have to liquidate their assets? I certainly hope this can be appreciated as a worthy topic for magic finance. I’d like to get a feel for sentiment.
***Disclaimer - this is purely speculative. Just a theory. I am a smooth brained ape. I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. This is not DD. I do not endorse any specific type of trading in anyway shape or form. I repeat NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.***
All criticisms, critiques and thoughts are welcomed. If anything in this post is incorrect please let me know and I will edit as needed. Fucking love all of you. Enjoy the read.
tl;dr at the bottom
***Important clarification which I made in an edit at the bottom but will add here as well. Please consider that if this theory lends any credibility it may just further explain how the market could crash when GME moons. This does not mean the economy will also tank. This is an important distinction which some astute, wrinkle brained apes have pointed out.***
I was just about ready to get some work done on this nice Saturday morning but I couldn't stop thinking about this post I saw on here last night. Mainly, it talked about some of the large institutions involved in all of this and speculated that a fund called Jane Street Capital is likely one of Shitadel and Uncle Melvin's sibling that has been flying under the radar. Post is now deleted by mods for some reason but here is the link if anyone wants to gather anything from the comments. Basically, it was just a fun read.
https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/me2z8t/melvin_still_carries_113000000_of_gme_puts/
But anyways...it got me thinking about how, like many of you, I have been astonished how these hf fucks and corrupt MMs have not bled out yet. We all know they haven't just doubled down but they will CONTINUE to do so until they are ALL IN and have FAILED. And they will fail.
Why do we know this? Take for example the $600 million in bonds Citadel got approved for with their asshole BBB rating. Now I'm not an expert on ANY of this shit. I work as a doctor and while I feel capable of teaching myself most things the only financial/economic knowledge I have is from taking a fucking AP ECON class in highschool (which is actually one of the only AP classes I passed lol). But just like all of you I've been consumed by this shit for over two months and have learned more than I ever thought possible (credit to all you wrinkle ass brained apes out there).
HERE'S WHAT I DO KNOW THOUGH:
Citadel applies for a $600 million bond when the
... keep reading on reddit ➡Update 5/3/21: My option contracts have got destroyed but im still confident they print. I have been getting some more VGSH contracts b/c im confident they will print because the market will raise rates before the FED wants. There might not be a lot of buyers in these contracts so I plan on exercising these options and selling to get my money on them.
https://preview.redd.it/agzqhf2uk0x61.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=6239cbd8ac9e83e66f12396520d128e4ca18435f
https://preview.redd.it/5f275i2uk0x61.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f95ffe4aba27cddd0426c455e0c28dae14fa385
https://preview.redd.it/uqc6l03uk0x61.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=82272310d23f5fd2a184ad482e01217f2ceecea7
https://preview.redd.it/hacobi3uk0x61.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=be50f69af0b5fda48080b822b5624342fc8e3a30
Update 4/3/21: I took another huge hit on Thursday when treasury yields took a dip. I am still extremely confident in this trade. Even more confident than I was when I made the original post. If you look at CFTC website, Commodity Future Trading Commission at the commitment of traders you can look at the position on U.S. treasuries among asset managers, leveraged funds, and some other people.
I'm not the only one short treasuries. Leveraged funds are short treasuries to the tune of a couple trillion dollars (someone please tell me if I am mis-interpreting these position share numbers and the total amount short. i am multiplying the short share number by face value of the contracts). Their position on the 2-year and 5-year is short 2:1.
https://preview.redd.it/33asisy960r61.png?width=1714&format=png&auto=webp&s=b191cb2a09b910bb7c27382e5541c00f3db380c7
**This is only highlighting 2-year and 5-year and leveraged funds. You can go look through this yourself. Either way, there are 2 trillion dollars worth of 2-year and 5-year treasuries sold short. i saw this play before these leveraged players and i think it is safe to assume that they are smarter than me. I would not expect institutional and asset managers to have such speculative short positions because they are more concerned about % returns and portfolio balance than taking big gambles. Seems like funds backed off the 10-year short positions and they are net long on 10-yrs (at least asset managers and leveraged funds). imo, that real interest rates on 10y at 1.72% would still be less of a loss for funds than 2-yr and 5-yr
... keep reading on reddit ➡The free market doesn’t exist, our lives are controlled by these financial institutions, and we are just living in THEIR simulation.
I mean, we sort of already knew that, but now it’s just too obvious. You might be able to talk about it with a ‘normal’ person and they won’t think you’re a conspiracy nut whose some member of Q-anon.
It ain’t what you know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
New investor here! I have put my money in and reached my stock allocation while stocks are at an all time high. I did it because Bogleheads told me “time in market is greater than timing the market” and to “never try to time the market.“ I know nothing so I follow the great John Bogle’s recommendation.
But my fixed income allocation is still 100% in cash because a lot of people (bogleheads included) are saying to hold off from investing in bonds since yields are so low and interest rate will rise which will make bond prices fall.
But this seems awfully like timing the market to me. Does the “don’t time the market” rule not apply to bonds? Bonds are so complicated and apparently completely predictable because interest rate has a floor so it can only go up from here???
I don’t know whether to buy bonds or to wait. Please advise! Thanks in advance!
Preface: GME Apes hold on to GME with your diamond hands, this is not a ploy to get you to sell nor is this post for you. This entertainment, not financial advice. This is just a 🏳🌈🐻 look into the bond market and why you are seeing red and will continue to. TLDR first so anyone interested in taking a trip into the bearcave and coming out the closet on the other side can understand what's happening.
TL,DR: The fed is no longer in control of interest rates. Stocks are artificially inflated due to the Fed injecting money into the economy with nowhere for it to go but to investments, with stocks offering the highest returns of all possible investments. This used to not be an issue as the Fed was in control of how much QE could be done through open market operations as they were the buyers, but as the money supply is now enormous coupled with rising money velocity, the Fed will now have no choice but to start the process of QT, but to do that they need to sell bonds, which they are struggling to do due to low interest rates. To sell more bonds to reduce the money supply they will have to increase interest rates, resulting in a sea of red and the🏳🌈🐻's taking a trip to tendietown.
Part 1: Macro 101 review:
If you are comfortable with macroeconomic concepts, feel free to skip this part. This section is just definitions for the retards on the short bus that flunked out of econ.
For this DD we will need to understand the concepts of money supply, money velocity, open market operations, QE, and QT. Money supply is the total amount of money in the economy. Money velocity tells us how fast money is changing hands through the economy. More info at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
Open market operations refers to the Fed purchasing or selling securities on the open market, which is one of three monetary tools the Fed has at its disposal, with the other two being the discount rate and reserve requirement which are not important for this DD. QE and QT refer to quantitative easing/tightening, which is where the fed performs open market operations to either increase or decrease the supply of money in the economy.
Part 2: What's been happening so far:
Now that we have let the retards off the short bus, lets discuss where we are right now at a macroeconomic scale and how we got here. I want to get to wh
... keep reading on reddit ➡
I consider myself a value investor, so lately I’ve been thinking about how to value Ethereum as a network going into the future. I’ve come to a basic but I think solid preliminary valuation based on an Ethereum takeover of the worldwide bond market. I’ve been looking into whether this valuation has been done by others and I haven’t found anyone who has done it so I’m hoping to add a new perspective.
The first thing we have to remember is there’s basically no yield for most of the world at the moment. Unless you are willing to buy bonds in an unstable third world government, for most people with savings (especially those living without an income, think rich boomer retirees), there’s basically no option but to buy stocks (and in some cases real estate) to get any kind of return on your savings. This wasn’t always the case but since interest rates have basically been at 0 (or negative) taking into account inflation since 2008 (and maybe even 2000), there’s nowhere to put your money besides stocks and real estate. Side note: it isn’t a surprise that these two asset classes have become insanely inflated in the past two decades or so.
Enter Ethereum. I’m not the first to say that the Ethereum network seems to be the last place you can get yield in the world today (check out this article by David Hoffman). Basically, as most of us know, a person can get real yield (from 4.6% to 16%) by providing collateralized loans (either in stable coins or Ethereum/ other crypto) through decentralized smart contract DAOs like Maker.
What I think hasn’t been done though is to extend this fact to a valuation of Ethereum.
Some napkin math:
The worldwide bond market is valued at about 100 trillion USD (fun fact: it's much larger than the stock market, 4x larger than in the US alone).
Assuming that Ethereum takes over this bond market (and that it grows at the same rate it has to about 120 trillion in the 5-10 years), we are looking at a growth of about 400x for Ethereum’s market cap in the next decade. This gives us 1 million dollars USD per Ether. This isn’t even taking into account the transfer to Proof of Stake, the deflationary nature of the new changes to the network, and other non bond uses of the network. More importantly, it isn’t even taking into account that the bond market
... keep reading on reddit ➡
Yeah yeah, I know you guys are going to say I should move my other stuff to GME but I'm already in for $125k and I don't have enough faith in the SEC to guarantee I don't get completely screwed when this blows up. So I'm thinking I should take the rest of my money out of VTSAX and put it into bonds/mm/liquid for a week or two until this shakes out.
If the shorts are forced to liquidate (whether on their own or via DTCC changes) it's going to have a major impact on other stocks. If it moons like we think into the next galaxy, it could crash the market. What's the safe play?
Your weekend discussion thread. If you’re going to make a Post (read rules), try to at least make an effort.
Timeline:
-
2/12/21 PSTH closing price: 30.21 (0.22) (+0.73%)
When the stock market comes tumbling down, the natural first jump out of stocks is in to a currency or a bond. For most people, this is the natural first step that they have to do. The more people are chasing those currencies and bonds, the more it looks like silver will be going down in value. Be prepared mentally for this. Silver is not going down in value, the purchasing power of currency will tick upwards a bit until people divest out of their currency because they know it will be eroded by "transitory hyper-inflation".
Go back to your fundamentals of why you are here, and why you have silver. You have your reasons. What are they? Maybe write them down, and come back to them in times of disbelief.
Once people begin to look for ways to get out of their currencies and bonds, the next jump is in to precious metals and other hard assets. It will take a bit, but don't be discouraged by the spot price showing on the screen. An ounce of silver is still an ounce, and it is the most undervalued asset; the most manipulated too.
Investing in equities will lead to hedging in currencies. Hedging in currencies will lead to protecting in silver. With enough start protecting in silver, it then becomes the new investment which is a really good reason to be here.
We are already seeing very wealthy individuals and private equity firms jumping directly in to silver via PSLV.
Please take these as words as encouragement and not financial advice. Please do your own research and get more professional opinions.
Keep stacking and supporting each other! Cheers and have a great day!
Any apes with more wrinkles out there help a fellow ape out here. My main concern/question is does it mean that the dollar will fall against other currencies? If true, then when the squeeze happens and I manage to profit off of it, it wouldn't be that great to convert those profits into my local currency?
This article was on CNBC this morning
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/us-bonds-treasury-yields-rise-ahead-of-fourth-quarter-gdp-update.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
I don’t think home prices will come down but I think this extreme sellers market will wind down significantly. What do you guys think?
Jerome "Zimbabwe" Powell and the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed have completely discarded any notion of fiscal responsibility as Powell ignores previous assurances the Fed would revisit its ludicrously low interest rates if inflation spiked above 2 percent.
The Treasury market’s inflation bulls seem to have gotten a green light from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to double down on wagers that price pressures will only intensify in the months ahead.
The renewed mojo for the reflation trade follows Powell’s reaffirmation this week of the central bank’s intention to let the world’s biggest economy run hot for some time as it recovers from the pandemic. The Fed’s unwavering commitment to ultra-loose policy in the face of robust economic data is what caught traders’ attention. It took on added significance as it coincided with signs infections are ebbing again in the U.S., and as President Joe Biden unveiled plans for trillions more in fiscal spending.
Remember a few weeks ago, when someone found out that GME’s debt obligations were being sold as corporate bonds, and that banks like (JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, and other big players) were buying them up in droves? And people were worried about the share equivalent for these bonds flooding the market until they realized that they weren’t able to be converted into new shares?
Yeah anyway I know most people weren’t able to access the corporate bond info, but for anyone who can, how has the bond angle played out since GME paid off 100% of its debt? Thanks wrinkle brains!!
I’ve gotten to a point now that I can pour about $30k/month into taxable investing on top of what I’m maxing out for retirement. I just made my first purchases of VTSAX and VTIAX but can’t bring myself to invest in bonds, partly because of the tax consequences but also because I’m only in my mid 40’s and that feels overly conservative.
Wouldn’t I get the same advantage by just pouring any amount I would put into a bond fund into my mortgage instead at least until I get that paid off? Sure my 15 year mortgage rate is in the mid-2’s, but I’d the point is to use the bond investment to mitigate risk, seems like paying off my only remaining debt would have the same effect.
Hi guys! Newbie investor here. Just wanna ask for your opinion. I currently invest on Index and Bond Funds via SunLife and also Tech Feeder Fund via GInvest. Monthly, I have a budget of 15,000 for all three, divided equally (5k for each).
With the current market situation, PH market is down. Should I go all in (15k) sa Tech Feeder or still stick with funding all three equally?
Thank you!
I understand performance is not indicative of future results when it comes to equities and bonds, but can you really make the same argument for investing in nation markets like the U.S. market?
Historical performance of a nation's market would have to be taken into consideration when making a decision to invest in a mutual fund or ETFs that might reflect the U.S. Economy, EU, South east asia, correct?
Hey everyone,
So basically I think there is a good probability that we are at the edge of an economic disaster. I have been talking about the bond market, and looking into what is going on there and it is clear that the FED has their hands tied on this and our only path forwards are 1) hyperinflation or 2) failure in the bond market due to rising interest rates.
In 2019, the world economy was running hot AF. In just the span of time from 2018-2019 the us median income rose 2%, poverty dropped 2%, and it all seemed very good.
The FED saw that the economy was getting hot, and that their quantitative easing (QE) policy might be becoming less effective. They have some bank tools that are used to combat inflation and interest rates. These tools are IOER, SLR%, and YCC.
IOER: Interest one excessive reserves. This is perhaps the most important tool because feds can manually change the interest rate on the M1 money stock. This is important because from this first money stock, every-time one passes hands there is an interest rate associated with it. So Interest rate on IOER affects the M1 money stock, M2 money stock, all banks, and almost all of the credit that we try to get, it also affects SLR%.
SLR%: Supplementary leverage ratio %. This is basically how much loan loss reserves a banks and companies need to always keep on hand in order to meet the needs of their members. For example, the US fed can put a cap at 10% SLR% and that means that the bank can leverage 90% of its money out, while only keeping 10% on hand. This is influenced by IOER and this SLR% is the main reason we cannot raise interest rates using IOER.
In 2019 we tried raising IOER, which increased SLR. When we did that we moved the underbelly of a beast so massive we had no idea how big it could be. When we raised IOER many banks and companies have taken out so much debt that they literally COULD NOT STAY LIQUID with increases in interest rates.
Not only did this raise in interest rates lead to a huge liquidity disaster, it also led to liquidity disasters IN OTHER COUNTRIES. That is really really really worrisome. We raise interest in the IOER and all the suddenly Turkey also is having a major fucking liquidity issue. I don't know each country but I do know that our 2019 actions were affecting Turkey and other countries.
So what did we do in response the the 2019 liquidity disasters? WE LOWERED INTEREST RATES AND PRINTED MORE MONE
... keep reading on reddit ➡So I got really scared and moved all of my 401k out of the market when it fell below 20k last year. It’s now in bonds and has actually lost 3% over the past year. It’s been a nightmare. Do I just wait until the market crashes to get back in?
Again trouble to upload my DD on r/GME~~~~, maybe someone can help me out what word triggers auto-mod again.~~~~ Found the word.
Disclaimer: This not my style. Skip this whole part entirely and just go down to enjoy your bullish DD on GME below, because anything hereafter is just my stomach turning around. >!And that´s it. I literally want to stop writing at this point. I even considered how I phrase this. This is the beginning of this DD and I have no strength left. It´s not even due to GME, for the curious Ape´s that couldn´t follow my advice, but no matter how much I Ape this down, use Emojis you all like or idk what stuff you would like to see, but this topic...idk. I am currently sitting in front of my PC and I hope I am delusional, because I am realizing a scheme that shouln´t exist. And I don´t mean naked shorting. Every dot I input is literally me taking a break.!<
I will now level the playingfield with basics, that should have never been hidden. That should have been taught in school every day until you can preach it.
Hidden behind a network of institutions, numbers, words, terms, silence and individuals.
And the inter-connection how I.O.U. beyond the existing shares availability of GME at previously confirmed 140% being shorted is sanding the whole system. So let´s begin.
You probably heard from this as statistics, but I will make you now realize just how small this 0.01% is.
Technically speaking, as ridiculous as this may sound, the difference between poor and rich is much smaller than the abyss separating the top 0.1% from the stupendously wealthy 0.01%.
Just to put this into perspective. I have some more graphs, but I guess you can imagine how this accumulates from hundreds of years, just to be passed on to your child, or here - close to 50 years in this case, before we even had the tools to map this.
Which is only what we can see I should stress.
Sounds ridiculous? Then let´s zoom in.
https://preview.redd.it/c13n9iq085r61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1334b9ceab2cfec965ee0bd1c9a802fbfbc57947
Now then, who belongs to these 0.01%? Numbers are uninteresting, we like 🚀🚀
Well to be frank, no one knows. I refered to this in a previous comment, but while the boards and names of some banks are visible, some individuals - you
... keep reading on reddit ➡Let's see how good we apes are at predicting market moves. What will happen in the next three weeks?
