Why YSK: There are a number of practical applications: 1) If you're in a bad place emotionally it's easy to predict that you will be in a bad state for much longer than you actually will. Remembering your susceptibility to the affective forecasting bias will help you get better perspective. Equally, if you're in a great mood you might make lots of plans based on how you feel in the moment only to find yourself exhausted later. Remember to check in and ask yourself if you'll have the energy.
Here's a wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting
I’m in my final year of undergrad and For my research I plan on doing research on the nature of affective forecasting and how self esteem and well-being can affect it. However I don’t feel too confident about my topic can anyone please tell me how I can elevate my topic? Should I add more variables? Or should I change any of the variables?
There is a social psychological phenomena called affective forecasting. Basically we anticipate how happy and item or event is going to make us. For example, if we get an A on an exam we think it will make us feel amazing, we might thing it will make us feel 10/10 on a happiness scale for weeks. In reality that A only makes us feel maybe a 7/10 for a few hours, then we return to homeostasis, or our normal happiness/emotional level. Remember that all of this value you're placing on an item is fleeting, it will never feel as good as you anticipate. You will return to baseline. Furthermore, know that this thought process happens to everyone, and is a normal experience.
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The question is above. When do famines start, when do areas become unihabitable-what books can I read to find out? Thanks.
I'll try and make this non-political...
How would a $300 payment to every Aussie affect the economy?
As a stimulus package (putting aside the incentive to get more jabs done), and assuming that shops are open/lockdown is over when the payments are made, wouldn't this be a good thing?
Any winners or losers here?
Hey guys, I just wanted to layout what I think might happen over the next couple of days, and also to help temper expectations for the short-term price moves of silver.
- First off, it's important to understand how much silver COMEX has. I did some sleuthing and I found that they currently have 395 million oz total, with 260,000,000 million oz titled "eligible", and 134,000,000 million oz titled "registered".
- The difference between "eligible" and "registered" is the purity grade that each gets. Only the "registered" silver is .999 in purity and available for delivery. The "eligible" is not available for delivery yet.
- That means, in order for us to break COMEX we need to remove 134,000,000 million oz of silver from their vaults in a very short span of time (3-6 months). In order to do that, every person on this sub would need to buy $280,000 of PSLV. Now, that's not very realistic, and even if we manage to get the sub to 100k people by May, it would still require an average of 84k per person. However, luckily for us, we're gonna get help from the futures market.
- Here's where futures delivery becomes important. The big delivery months are March, May, July, September, and December. These months typically see the largest volume of contracts delivered (each contract is for 5000 oz of silver).
- For historical reference: December 2020 deliveries were 9,337 (47 million oz), September 2020 deliveries were 11,080 contracts (55 million oz), and July 2020 had 17,294 contracts delivered (86,470,000 oz).
- July is important because the spot price of silver increased from $18 to $24 by the end of the month, and touched $30 by August 10th. That represented an initial ~38% increase, and a cumulative ~68% increase from top to bottom. This increase also coincided with one of the largest delivery periods in COMEX history.
- This March we currently have 28,442 contracts still open for delivery. There are still two days left before these contracts expire (Wednesday and Thursday), so the number of contracts will likely decrease a bit more. However, if we end the month with more than 17,500 contracts standing for delivery (like July 2020), we could see the price of silver rally 20%-50% by EoM. That should put the spot price anywhere from $32-$40.
- If March ends up being a decently sized delivery month (which it's looking to be) - along with our combined efforts to remove all retail silver from the market - we could see COMEX deplete its vault
