Long time lurker first time poster. I've always had an interest in forming opinions on how likely events to happen are based off of bookmaker odds, so I decided I'd throw my arm at mapping out the next 4 title race games (MCI v ARS, MCI v BUR, EV v LIV, LIV v PAL).

It's really crudely made on Microsoft Excel. If this is something that people find interesting, I'll put a lot more effort into making it look glossy in the future. The data I've created can be found here.

• City win vs Arsenal
• City draw vs Arsenal
• Arsenal win vs City

I took the odds from bookmakers, changed them to percentages and scaled each down slightly to result in 100%. (Most bookmakers events added up to around 106% -109%)

Next I graphed it out, multiplying each scenario out. This gave me a total of 81 different possibilities that could happen over the next few weeks.

I used the yellow highlighted box to keep track of when Liverpool could secure the title pre-Crystal Palace kick off (Ie winning it at Goodison or without playing at all). The green text is us winning it / already being won, the red is it lingering on another week.

Findings

So, the most likely scenario, possibly unsurpringly given the two teams in question, is City winning both games and Liverpool winning both games, which comes in at roughly 26%. Sadly, the next two most likely scenarios mean we must wait until the Etihad before potentially securing it, as they are City winning both, and us losing to Everton and drawing to Everton which come in at roughly 11% and 10% each.

• Chances we win it vs Palace - 47%

• Chances it's won before Palace - 11%

• Chances it's won after Palace 42%.

Also a 0.6% chance it's won before we kick a ball, for all you dreamers out there.

If anyone notices any problems in my logic or has any questions feel free to ask! I would continue on but I couldn't find any odds on Man City vs Liverpool game, probably because it's so far away.

TL;DR - Liverpool good at football. Why waste time say lot word, when few word do trick.

EDIT

With the City Arsenal postponement, it now looks like this

• Chances we win it vs Palace - 46%

• Chances it's won before Palace - 3%

• Chances it's won after Palace 50%.

#FT: Crystal Palace 1-1 Arsenal

Crystal Palace scorers: Jordan Ayew (54')

Arsenal scorers: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (12')

Venue: Selhurst Park

Auto-refreshing reddit comments link

Follow us on Twitter

Join us on Discord

LINE-UPS

Crystal Palace

Vicente Guaita, Gary Cahill, James Tomkins, Jairo Riedewald, Martin Kelly, James Mccarthy, Cheikhou Kouyate, James Mcarthur, Wilfried Zaha, Max Meyer (Cenk Tosun), Jordan Ayew.

Subs: Scott Dann, Wayne Hennessey, Sam Woods, Connor Wickham, Nya Kirby, Brandon Pierrick.

^____________________________

Arsenal

Bernd Leno, David Luiz, Sokratis Papastathopoulos, Sead Kolasinac, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Mesut Ozil (Gabriel Martinelli), Granit Xhaka, Lucas Torreira (Matteo Guendouzi), Alexandre Lacazette (Reiss Nelson), Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Nicolas Pepe.

Subs: Emiliano Martinez, Rob Holding, Joseph Willock, Bukayo Saka.

MATCH EVENTS | via ESPNFC

- Lineups are announced and players are warming up.

- First Half begins.

1' Corner, Arsenal. Conceded by James McArthur.

1' Foul by Sokratis (Arsenal).

1' Gary Cahill (Crystal Palace) wins a free kick in the defensive half.

5' Foul by Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal).

5' Max Meyer (Crystal Palace) wins a free kick in the defensive half.

7' Foul by Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace).

7' Lucas Torreira (Arsenal) wins a free kick in the attacking half.

8' Foul by Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace).

8' Granit Xhaka (Arsenal) wins a free kick in the defensive half.

10' Foul by Granit Xhaka (Arsenal).

10' Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace) wins a free kick in the defensive half.

12' Goal! Crystal Palace 0, Arsenal 1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Alexandre Lacazette.

15' Foul by Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace).

15' Granit Xhaka (Arsenal) wins a free kick in the attacking half.

18' Offside, Arsenal. Granit Xhaka tries a through ball, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is c

If we beat Chelsea in the FA-cup the premier league game vs. Crystal Palace will be postponed.

I know your guess is as good as mine but perhaps anyone with some more knowledge could make a qualified guess as to when this game will take place if it would be postponed?

I've got tickets to the game and our rollercoaster ride in the FA-cup is making it rather difficult to book flights. Also I've got some other potential plans in April which could collide if it gets postponed. Any help is appreciated!

Ohh, and am I a bad fan for kind of hoping we'll get knocked and go unbeaten in the league so I can witness the greates thing the city as seen for decades?

Warning: A somewhat long read.

Link: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/perseverance-and-go-go-gadget-legs-the-rise-of-50m-full-back-wan-bissaka-87jtcl9vq

Full text follows:

-----------------------

When charting the dizzying ascent of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, there really is only one place to begin. The day that altered a young Crystal Palace winger’s career path is well chronicled but worth recounting given how transformational it has proved.

A Thursday morning first-team training session in late 2016 and Kevin Keen, the then first-team coach, calls for a few under-23 players to make up the numbers. With the under-23 right back injured, Wan-Bissaka gets the call. Not only is the 18-year-old asked to play out of position, but he is set with the unenviable task of marking perhaps the Premier League’s most devastating winger, Wilfried Zaha.

Time and again, Zaha runs at the callow, makeshift right back, to no avail. “I can remember Wilf [Zaha] getting really frustrated,” Keen recalls. “Like you see in a Premier League game when he gets kicked, and he has a moan and gets the hump. He wasn’t used to a young boy coming over in training and not being able to get by him.”

The following week, Keen asked for Wan-Bissaka again. Andros Townsend, this time, was shackled impressively. “I don’t know how he does it,” Zaha said. “You may go past him, but he always manages to get a last ditch tackle in.”

Two and a half years and only 42 Premier League appearances later, Wan-Bissaka is on the verge of a £50 million transfer to Manchester United, which will make the 21-year-old the most expensive defender in the club’s history. Subject to a medical, a five-year deal, which is worth about £80,000 a week to the player, is likely to be wrapped up by the weekend.

“In the time I’ve been in football,” Richard Shaw, the Palace under-23 manager, says, “I haven’t seen anyone go from learning a new position, to playing his first three games in the Premier League against Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea and coming through with flying colours, to playing his first full season, and being worth this amount of money. Sometimes it’s hard to get your head around.”

Wan-Bissaka grew up in New Addington, Croydon, a little over five miles from Selhurst Park. Like many of the talented young players who have emerged from south London in recent years, his skills

You probably know about the Crystal Palace Park dinosaurs, which are outdated reconstructions of prehistoric life made in the 19th century. Your job is it now to evolve animals that look and behave like these reconstructions, but by using only modern reptiles and amphibians.

You are given:

• An island-continent about the size of Madagascar. Location, geology and climate is up to you.

• Any currently living reptile/amphibian of your choosing that arrived on the island (either naturally or by human introduction). Edit: Reptile in the classical sense, excluding birds. You can of course still have birds, mammals, etc. on the island, but they can‘t be the ancestors of the creatures you have to evolve.

• Unlimited time

You have to evolve:

• Iguanodon

• Megalosaurus

• Hylaeosaurus

Note on the “dinosaurs“: They need to have erect legs (and perhaps an elevated metabolism because of that)

• Teleosaurus

• Pterodactylus Note: Needs to have a bird-like chest and butt. Skin has to be scaly.

• Ichthyosaurus

• Plesiosaurus

• Mosasaurus

Note on the marine reptiles: They need to be capable of crawling on land like seals or sea turtles (the only exception is maybe Mosasaurus). The plesiosaur should also have a bendy swan-neck. If they live in fresh- or saltwater is up to you.

• Dicynodon Note: Needs to have walrus-tusks and turtle-beak/shell

• Labyrinthodon Note: Does not necessarily have to be an amphibian

Edit: Here is some more art from the time (except for the last two which are modern drawings done by Mark Witton) to give you more reference

Serie A

PL

Ligue 1

La Liga

Bundesliga

Goals scored

1. Liverpool 12
2. Chelsea + Inter Milan 10
3. Spurs + PSG 9
4. Palace + Man City + Atletico Madrid 8
5. Juve + Sampdoria + Leicester + Montpellier + OGC Nice + RB Leipzig + Borussia Mönchengladbach 7

As for goals scored, we have almost twice as many as clean sheets we have.

FT: Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool

Date: 23 November 2019 — 16:00 CET, 10:00 EST, 15:00 GMT, 20:30 IST

League: Premier League (Round 13)

Venue: Selhurst Park (London)

Referee: K. Friend

Lineups

Here's this past weekend's post

#International break news

• 14/1 - Rianna Dean called up for training session with England U21s

• 16/1 - Forward Jessica Naz gets an assist for England U19s vs Norway U19s

• 20/1 - Jessica Naz starts for England U19s vs Netherlands U19s

• 22/1 - Midfielders Megan Wynne and Anna Filbey on the bench for Wales' loss to Italy 2-0

#Millwall 2-3 Spurs

Here's how I summed up the preview for this match a couple weeks ago:

> This should be 3 points for Spurs. Spurs beat Millwall 8-0 this past October, and so we'll see how much is different in the away tie. Millwall lost to 5th place Leicester City 3-2 this week, so it shows that Millwall can put up a fight but things just haven't gone their way defensively.

Not saying I called it, but I'm always preparing for the worst and hoping for the best with football. We had a bit of both today!

The game was deadlocked for much of the first half, with the first goal not coming until the 35th minute. Sarah Wiltshire hit one of her patented screamers, the Welsh connection with Wynne seeming to pay off in a goal. Just before the half closed, Millwall's Clarke set the match back to square one with a goal in the 44th. It wasn't until the final 5 minutes of regulation that things started to pick up again. Emma Beckett scored in her 2nd ever appearance for Spurs ladies since she was signed last month, heading in a corner form captain Schillaci. Millwall replied in kind in the first minute of stoppage, Lumsden securing a header off a freekick. But Spurs got the last word in, with who else but Rianna Dean scoring in the 95th minute to take the 3 points. Actual video of the goal

I gotta say, I wish I was there for this match or at least the last 10 minutes!

While Spurs "should" be handling Millwall easily and some (opposing) fans point out this result as a negative, they showed these women strength through adversity and got the 3 points. That's what the record books will show at the end of the day.

#Championship standi

#FT: Manchester City 2-2 Crystal Palace

Manchester City scorers: Sergio Agüero (82', 87')

Crystal Palace scorers: Cenk Tosun (39'), Fernandinho (90' OG)

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Auto-refreshing reddit comments link

LINE-UPS

Manchester City

Ederson, Fernandinho, John Stones, Benjamin Mendy, João Cancelo, Ilkay Gündogan, David Silva (Gabriel Jesus), Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Agüero, Bernardo Silva (Riyad Mahrez), Raheem Sterling (Rodri).

Subs: Claudio Bravo, Nicolás Otamendi, Kyle Walker, Phil Foden.

^____________________________

Crystal Palace

Vicente Guaita, Gary Cahill, James Tomkins, Jairo Riedewald (Joel Ward), Martin Kelly, James McCarthy, Cheikhou Kouyaté, James McArthur, Wilfried Zaha, Jordan Ayew, Cenk Tosun (Connor Wickham).

Subs: Scott Dann, Wayne Hennessey, Sam Woods, Giovanni Mcgregor, Brandon Pierrick.

MATCH EVENTS | via ESPN

13' James McArthur Yellow Card

26' Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

39' Cenk Tosun Goal - Header

58' Benjamin Mendy (Manchester City) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

62' On: Gabriel Jesus|Off: David Silva

73' On: Riyad Mahrez|Off: Bernardo Silva

81' On: Connor Wickham|Off: Cenk Tosun

82' Sergio Agüero Goal

87' Sergio Agüero Goal - Header

88' On: Joel Ward|Off: Jairo Riedewald

89' On: Rodri|Off: Raheem Sterling

90' Fernandinho <strong>(OG)</strong>

^(Don't see a thread for a match you're watching?) ^(Click here) ^(to learn how to request a match thread from this bot.)

#FT: Liverpool 4-3 Crystal Palace

Liverpool scorers: Mohamed Salah (46', 75'), Roberto Firmino (53')

Crystal Palace scorers: Andros Townsend (34'), James Tomkins (65')

Venue: Anfield

Auto-refreshing reddit comments link

LINE-UPS

Liverpool

Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Joël Matip, Andrew Robertson, James Milner, Roberto Firmino, Fabinho (Adam Lallana), Jordan Henderson, Mohamed Salah, Naby Keita (Xherdan Shaqiri), Sadio Mané.

Subs: Daniel Sturridge, Simon Mignolet, Alberto Moreno, Divock Origi, Rafael Camacho.

^____________________________

Crystal Palace

Julian Speroni, Mamadou Sakho, James Tomkins, Patrick van Aanholt, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Cheikhou Kouyaté (Jeff Schlupp), James McArthur (Maximilian Meyer), Luka Milivojevic, Wilfried Zaha, Andros Townsend, Jordan Ayew (Connor Wickham).

Subs: Scott Dann, Christian Benteke, Martin Kelly, Joe Tupper.

MATCH EVENTS | via ESPN

34' Goal! Liverpool 0, Crystal Palace 1. Andros Townsend (Crystal Palace) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Wilfried Zaha.

42' Jordan Ayew (Crystal Palace) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

46' Goal! Liverpool 1, Crystal Palace 1. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.

53' Goal! Liverpool 2, Crystal Palace 1. Roberto Firmino (Liverpool) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Naby Keita following a corner.

65' Goal! Liverpool 2, Crystal Palace 2. James Tomkins (Crystal Palace) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Luka Milivojevic with a cross following a corner.

71' Substitution, Liverpool. Xherdan Shaqiri replaces Naby Keita.

75' Goal! Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 2. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal.

75' Substitution, Crystal Palace. Jeffrey Schlupp replaces Cheikhou Kouyaté.

81' Substitution, Crystal Palace. Connor Wickham replaces Jordan Ayew.

81' [](#icon-