Hey all - noticed a lot of misinformation in the last couple of days from new investors (and gamblers alike). I’m not an expert by a long shot, but after hours of reading, I wanted to lay my thoughts on the table. This might seem like kindergarten basics to most OG people here, but I’m trying to ELI5 for myself and others. Please feel free to correct me if you notice any errors.
- The first stratigraphic test well 6-2 found (strong) evidence of a petroleum system NOT an oil reservoir/trap
- This petroleum system is a conventional system, meaning that there is light sweet crude oil, that is much easier to recover than non-conventional plays
- Although we didn’t find “oil”, this well shows what is essentially the beginning of a map that will lead us closer to finding a reservoir, the underground lake or “trap” where oil is found
- Although we have determined 200m of source rock from 6-2, we have yet to know how deep our first well was drilled
- This is important, as total depth is necessary to “cook” the hydrocarbons to produce oil
- EDIT The previous test well from Owambo Basin (ST-1) was too shallow (NOT Botswana)
The most bullish part about this find is it is EXACTLY what Jarvie said was going to be there. For this crack team to identify and deliver without so much as skipping a beat is pretty unheard of. Everything is lining up nicely so far.
That being said, I think there are some potential negative near-term price catalysts that could make this a bumpy ride (potentially to the depths of hell):
- Even if our next stratigraphic well 6-1 is very positive, we might not hit pay dirt on our test well (well 3), which is looking to target a legit oil trap
- If we’re unlucky, we just might not hit pay dirt on subsequent follow up wild cats after well 3
- Even if we hit a reservoir, it might not be everything it’s cracked up to be
- We keep shooting and missing till we run out of money
- Our rig breaks down/accident/blowout significantly delays our progress
- Anything else?
To be totally honest, I’m probably over exposed to this play, and I want to sleep better at night knowing what could possibly go wrong, and have a subsequent repositioning and/or exit plan in place.
Looking forward to hearing what you all think.
EDIT:
Thought I’d throw in some negative sentiment from StockTwits:
“PSA for my oil friends on this board... You’ll be hearing people touting RECAF today. Tread lightly. This play has been promoted for close to a year, and it’s popping
... keep reading on reddit ➡The funeral director was asking us what we think Mum should wear in her casket.
Mum always loved to wear sarongs (fabric wraps that go around the torso and drape downward a bit like a long skirt would), so my uncle suggested that she wear a sarong in there.
The funeral director looked a bit confused, as did some of our family members, to which my uncle added:
"What's sarong with that?"
I started laughing like an idiot. He was proud of it too. The funeral director was rather shocked. We assured her, and our more proper relatives, that Mum would've absolutely loved the joke (which is very true).
His delivery was perfect. I'll never forget the risk he took. We sometimes recall the moment as a way help cushion the blows of the grieving process.
--Edit-- I appreciate the condolences. I'm doing well and the worst is behind me and my family. But thanks :)
--Edit-- Massive thanks for all the awards and kind words. And the puns! Love 'em.
I would have a daughter
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But Bill kept the Windows
True story; it even happened last night. My 5-year-old son walks up behind me and out of the blue says, "hey."
I turn to him and say, "yeah, kiddo? What's up?"
He responds, "it's dead grass."
I'm really confused and trying to figure out what's wrong and what he wants from me. "What? There's dead grass? What's wrong with that?"
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He says, totally straight-faced, "hay is dead grass," and runs off.
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And then you will all be sorry.
Now it’s syncing.
He replied, "Well, stop going to those places then!"
She said how do you know he was headed to work?
I will find you. You have my Word.
“thank you for your cervix.”
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Mods said I'm a cereal reposter...
A taxi
But now I stand corrected.
Wait. Sorry, wrong sub.
Wookie mistake.
Theoretical Fizz-ics
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I said, “That makes two of us.”
Now he’s a great grandfather
He thought homes were built, not born.
so I had to ground him.
He's doing better currently.
And conducting himself properly.
An assassin
The man says to the bartender “1 for me, and 1 for the road”
Crows mostly drank alone.
