The Hoomers in r/realestate always respond with "this isn't 2008" and they may very well be right. With how fast prices have risen and how low inventories have been, even a 30% correction won't actually affect all that many people. Basically only the people bought in the last year will be hurt by it and everyone else will just be reset to where they were two years ago.
We could be 100% right that this is a bubble and there could be very little in the way of Defaults save for those who really got Hoomed hard. And that's exactly the point, not that there will be a financial crisis that dooms us all, but that you buy right now you might get Hoomed. The rest of us will be just fine, you'll just be underwater for like 10 years because your jimmies were rustled and you just couldn't wait.
Looks like there is still alot of confusion with Kelce so thought I would report the new rules.
>Under the previous protocols, a vaccinated individual who tests positive for COVID-19 has to produce two negative tests 24 hours apart before being cleared to return. The new protocols relax that requirement and could enable teams such as the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams and Washington Football Team to get some players back for this weekend's games.
>In creating the new return-to-play protocols, the NFL and NFLPA focused on a new metric that measures the viral load of a player, known as the "cycle threshold" (CT). In essence, the CT value can measure whether a player is still contagious, even if in some cases he would still test positive on a traditional test.
>There are now three ways for a vaccinated player to return under the new protocols:
>• Two PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests that are either negative or produce a CT value of 35 or greater.
>• One PCR test that is either negative or produces a CT value of 35 or greater, and a negative Mesa test result taken with 24 hours of the PCR test. (Mesa tests usually return results in less than an hour.)
>• Two negative Mesa tests.
Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32883210/nfl-new-covid-19-rules-include-changes-return-play-protocols-return-intensive-restrictions
So. I missed out on the whole Contagion/hacking era and it sounds like it was a blast and really fit the stealth/hacking playstyle that I was curious about. Is there any mod that restores the viability of the quick hacking build or should I just cut my losses and look for another build?
How deep is this going to go?
Although a much smaller developer it seems like every few days we are hearing of new defaults and growing pressure on a key area of China's economy.
Bloomberg:
"
Sinic Holdings Group Co. became the latest Chinese real estate firm to default as investors wait to see whether China Evergrande Group Inc. will meet overdue interest payments on dollar bonds this week.
Sinic’s credit rating was lowered by S&P Global Ratings to Selective Default from CC after the company failed to repay the interest and principal of its $250 million note due Monday, according to a statement dated Tuesday."
" The strain on real estate companies add to a string of broader risks for China’s economy, which depends on the real estate market for about 30% of gross domestic product. Home prices fell in September for the first time in six years, while real estate investment slid for the first time since last year. "
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-developer-sinic-defaults-amid-022709836.html
r/ detrans has made a few posts with OP and commenters calling being trans "gender ideology, cult/religion", "delusion" and social evil. As a disclaimer, I sympathize with the pain and experiences of detrans individuals, but I do not support when they turn around and use that against the trans community; you can say, "I am not trans, I detransitioned, but I will continue to respect trans people even if it didn't work out for me."
• OP's post criticizes "gender ideology", complains about "interacting with delusion", accuses medical industry of pushing transition for profit, +214:
>I can’t escape gender ideology. My friends, my social media, and my family keep reinforcing these set of beliefs onto me.
>
>I keep having to interact with delusion and play along with it...
>
>...I can’t help but think of the fact that this person is making life-altering decisions based on the false belief that there is an “authentic self/gender” just waiting to be discovered via chemical/surgical alterations, or a new set of pronouns or a new name.
>
>Knowing the fact that there is a profit incentive in giving people hormones and providing “gender affirming” surgeries combined with the fact that no one in my circle even acknowledges this fact has left me feeling betrayed.
-comments:
>The support for transition will back off with the current generation of younger and younger girls transitioning due to social contagion, figure out they regret it and their families and community see the implications. I think trans support will continue to some extent because feeding the delusion is a handy way for society to more or less civilly rid itself of problematic people.
>
>--
>
>It's the modern day social cancer. I said it. All you can do is just be you and hope people will get bored of it all eventually when something new takes hold. Maybe pretending that your eye color changes with your mood will come back.
>
>--
>
>Plastic surgery and cosmetic treatments being framed as “empowering” is also some sneaky gaslighting...it’s unfashionable to be authentic. You pretend to be authentic by having strangers cut your body and inject foreign substances into it. To fit some arbitrary beauty standard. It‘s better for the economy to have us believe that consumption of goods and services will cure our insecurities. It’s just another sy
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... keep reading on reddit ➡https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsHUZZAH/comments/r95nra/contagion_status_not_contained
12-27-2021 Update
Fujian Yango Group Co. hasn’t paid the coupon on its 11.875% $296 million note maturing in 2023 following a 30-day grace period, it said in a filing dated Dec. 25 to the Singapore stock exchange. Failure to pay the interest after the grace period constitutes an event of default, according to the bond’s issuance document seen by Bloomberg News.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-yango-group-at-b-outlook-stable-07-09-2021
Fitch believes the company has the incentive and ability to continue to reduce leverage towards 50%, supported by a quality land bank that is sufficient for development over the next two years.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-yango-to-c-on-distressed-debt-exchange-02-11-2021
Fitch will subsequently re-rate Yango's IDRs to a level that is consistent with the company's post-exchange capital structure and risk profile, which would likely be within a very low speculative-grade range.
12-24-2021 Evergrande Update
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-24/shares-poised-for-fifth-week-of-declines-evergrande-update
Shares in China Evergrande Group extended a streak of weekly declines to five, the longest run since September, as Hong Kong’s stock market closed early for Christmas.
“Mutual fund houses and asset managers are dumping large amounts of onshore property developer bonds, which quickly slumped to record low levels,” Zhang said. This will drive up costs of primary market issuance along with the pricing of loans and trust products, creating a vicious cycle that will further squeeze the cash flow of troubled developers, he said.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b96ecba-1534-4b94-b0b1-b18de668f938
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/6b96ecba-1534-4b94-b0b1-b18de668f938
In early December, Fitch downgraded Evergrande to “restricted default” after there was no sign of payments on bond coupons it owed to investors following the end of a 30-day grace period. Fitch noted that “the company did not respond to ou
... keep reading on reddit ➡From the article:
> HONG KONG - China Evergrande Group on Tuesday missed its third round of bond payments in three weeks, intensifying market fears over contagion involving other property developers as a wall of debt payment obligations come due in the near-term. Some bondholders said they did not receive coupon payments totalling US$148 million on Evergrande's April 2022, April 2023 and April 2024 notes due by 0400 GMT on Tuesday, following two other payments it missed in September.
> That puts investors at risk of large losses at the end of 30-day grace periods as the developer wrestles with more than $300 billion in liabilities.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/evergrande-misses-3rd-round-of-bond-coupon-payments-intensifying-contagion-fears-1.5619501
It still remains unclear how much contagion will actually come out of the missed payments, if any. The article also notes "A total of $101.2 billion bonds issued by Chinese developers will be due in the next year" which might be a bigger problem if other developers default as well.
I was wondering which is a better option to lead a Death Guard army the Lord of Contagion or Lord of Virulence?
The Black Swan Cometh
Earlier this month, a black swan flew into the plaza of Tiananmen Square, stirring speculation on what this would symbolically mean. China has already had a rough last couple of months; dealing with floods, typhoons, hailstorms, sandstorms, landslides, and a pandemic to boot. Surely this swan is of no significance right?
The Problem
Enter the Chinese housing bubble. Unlike Americans which diversify into stocks, bonds, real estates etc, China largely invest in real estate. Furthermore, 40-60% of the price of real estate in mainland china is the cost of the land and taxes collected by local governments. This has led to a rapid unsustainable rise in the price of housing in some parts of China.
https://preview.redd.it/fqil004lblo71.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4439bbf3b4bc31a936197e76c01e547920eb4ab
https://preview.redd.it/5u9t6w8gelo71.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=a51ac007bcfb913e4fbdc0245fc76aab77eef494
And what does all that get you? Some shit-ass tofu-dreg construction housing, that makes Haitian building codes look good. Built using concrete that's more reminiscent of dirt, rebar that's more reminiscent of twigs, these buildings were built by developers to turn a profit as quickly as possible, and bought by individuals who seek to sell them at a higher price to the next sucker. This process can perpetuate itself until a catalyst presents itself.
Bo the builder asks: Can we fix it?! \"No, it's fucked!\"
The catalyst: Evergrande
Enter the catalyst to China's housing bubble, Evergrande: China's second largest real estate developer. On September 8th, Evergrande Wealth, which offers wealth management products to clients in China, failed to deliver interest payment to its clients. As a result, victims and clients have staged large scale protests at Evergrande HQ for several days in a row.
https://preview.redd.it/ef3gorv34lo71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=78722f8ffcce2762446c593a28534263a7a97b54
[People take turns talking shit at an Evergrande Wealth exec while some lady is passed out on the floor.](https://preview.redd.
... keep reading on reddit ➡
Hello exiles,
I just recently returned to the game in scourge league after taking a longer break. The last time I played, I remember everyone memeing that ED + Contagion is the evergreen of league starters and that all streamers/racers are allways playing ED + Contagion. However, when I now look on poe ninja, I cannot find a single person using contagion. ED is still played apparently but its always paired with Bane. While I get that Bane is a cool skill, I dont think it has that built in spreading synergy that Contagion has.
So basically, my question is, what changed about Contagion? Was there some functional change that I missed? Did they remove that ED spreading? And most importantly, is it still playable?
Hello everyone,
Based on some news from Kaisa Group Holdings missing a payment, it seems that we needed to have a deeper dive.
No TL;DR; See Conclusion.
I used the list of companies that I posted earlier, the top 50 Chinese property developers that are in trouble: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmc9eg/contagion_of_the_top_50_chinese_housing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Based on that list, I decided to take a look at individual company's information.
The data source was Fitch ratings.
Here's a sample of Aoyuan group: https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/china-aoyuan-group-limited-91794891
Please keep in mind that this data comes from China, and not every data point is available.
I have searched for top 20 companies in trouble, of which 11 could be found on Fitch Ratings.
Evergrande may be the most talked about, however I've identified a few more developers that are in more trouble.
The bonds that I will be talking about are off-shore, no data on on-shore exist on Fitch that I could find.
Total value of debt in the 11 companies: USD$65.792B + CNY$2.8B which is equivalent to approximately USD$66.240B.
Figure 1: Bond details for companies with available debt data
Let's take a a look at the data with a chart as well:
Figure 2: Percentage breakdown of Total Live Debt
Based on the data, I found there are two other companies with more debt than Evergrande group, but we have a few more of interest:
- Vanke Real Estate
- 21.1% of total found debt
- USD$14.1B
- USD$5B higher than Evergrande group
- Country Garden Holdings
- 16.9% (nice) of total found debt
- USD$11.17B
- USD$2B higher than Evergrande group
- Sunac China Holdings
- 11.7% of total found debt
- USD$7.76B
- USD$1.3B lower than Evergrande Group
- Kaisa Group Holdings
- 11.6% of total found debt
- USD$7.68B
- USD$1.3B lower than Evergrande Group
But debt is one thing, you should also take a l
... keep reading on reddit ➡Beijing is not expected to provide direct support for debt-ridden developer China Evergrande Group, according to a Monday report by S&P Global Ratings.
“We do not expect the government to provide any direct support to Evergrande,” said the S&P credit analysts in a Monday report. “We believe Beijing would only be compelled to step in if there is a far-reaching contagion causing multiple major developers to fail and posing systemic risks to the economy.”
Instead of a bailout, Beijing might facilitate negotiations and funding to ensure individual investors and homebuyers are “protected as much as possible,” the analysts said.
[Evergrande] is due to make a number of interest payments for its bonds starting Thursday. S&P said a “default is likely” on those payments.
Fears over a potential contagion from Evergrande into the broader Chinese economy and beyond dragged the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by more than 3% on Monday, with the sell-off spreading across the globe.
Omicron has sadly caught my family. Daughter was exposed at daycare on the 23, symptomatic on the 25th. We all tested positive on the 27th and my symptoms started the 28th. According to public health, we are all out of isolation however I had one last rapid test left which I took before deciding whethet I should see my dad today and it came back positive. Ive not been symptomatic for about 3 days. Anyone have insight on how contagious I am at this time - one week after testing positive? Will I continue to test positive on the antigen for some time? Even though Ontario tells me I am good to come out of isolation, I would rather stay put for a bit if I can still infect others.
