Thanks to Baseball Reference’s new Negro Leagues statistics for making these incredible numbers more accessible.
I was doing some of my own research on both of these guys and wanted to share some observations and possibly add value (unlikely).
Methodology:
- FFPC ADP--This is data from FFPC Dynasty Superflex leagues (both standard and best ball) from the beginning of March all the way up until the draft.
- PPG is calculated using PPR. No premiums or bonuses.
- Mike Clay's projections can be found here.
- Offensive Line Rankings per The Undroppables
- Current value per KeepTradeCut.com. You can play with the calc on your own, but the calc is basically putting Jacobs + mid 2022 2nd = Gibson.
| Player | Age | FFPC ADP | 2020 PPG (2021) | 2021 Projections (Clay) | Offensive Link Ranking | KTC Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 22.9 | 27.2 (early round 3) | 14.4 | 15.1 | 19 | 6,600 |
| Josh Jacobs | 23.2 | 53.8 (early round 5) | 15.4 | 15 | 18 | 5,688 |
I'm not going to try and say Mike Clay's projections are perfect, or that they should even be the baseline--but I respect the man for his data-driven approach. In looking closer beyond the fantasy points, both players are projected for roughly the same rushing-reception-receiving yard ratio.
After looking at the data, I am having a hard time finding an objective reason to justify the value discrepancy--though I am genuinely open to someone making a case for it.
tl;dr: Why is Antonio Gibson being valued ~2 rounds higher in startup drafts than Josh Jacobs?
(FS) Josh Gibson - w/ COA from the Josh Gibson Foundation
www.sixtyfirststreet.com
Cards sold out, but I've ONE print remaining! $20 (25% to Josh Gibson Foundation)
As you can see here, according to his Seamheads page, Josh Gibson has a career slugging percentage of .690.
If we look over to baseball reference for the all time slugging leaders, the current leader is Babe Ruth with a .689
Gibson narrowly beats out Babe Ruth by a single point.
ALL HAIL THE NEW SLUGGING KING!
Edit: /u/cardith_lorda has informed me that due to Latin league stats inflating his slugging %, this doesn't count. His slugging is .676, which is still good enough for second!
