FYI be prepared
The initial seasonal tropical outlook released yesterday by the group led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University (CSU) forecasts another above-average hurricane forecast for the 2021 Atlantic season, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor.
CSU’s forecast indicates that several climate factors are driving the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which suggests above-normal activity:
The tropical Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions; that is, water temperatures are somewhat cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. La Niña tends to weaken upper-level wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic enhancing activity. While these waters may warm slightly during the next few months, CSU does not currently anticipate El Niño for the Atlantic hurricane season's peak. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.
Much of the Atlantic Basin's waters are also already warmer than average, particularly in the subtropics near Bermuda and the Northeast Seaboard. Parts of the Gulf of Mexico are also warmer than average, except for the northwestern Gulf due to a carryover from the Arctic blast in February. An above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes is more likely if temperatures in the main development region (MDR) between Africa and the Caribbean Sea and the Caribbean are warmer than average. Conversely, below-average ocean temperatures can lead to fewer tropical systems than if waters were warmer. How much dry air rolls off the coast of Africa will also need to be monitored. Even if water temperatures are boiling and there is little wind shear, dry air can still disrupt developing tropical cyclones and even prohibit their birth.
The CSU forecast also anticipates an above-normal probability of a major hurricane (Category 3-4-5) making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.
Entire continental U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%) Tracking into the Caribbean (10-20°N, 88-60°W) 58% (average for last century is 42%)
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was so active that forecasters resorted to naming storms with letters from the Gr
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