With the 2018 losses of (North Dakotan Democratic Senator) Heidi Heitkamp and (Illinois Republican Governor) Bruce Rauner, along with good senate candidates (Evan Bayh, Jason Kander) losing in 2016, one could make the argument that split-ticket voting in safe states is dying out. On the other hand, gubernatorially, Democrats came close or won South Dakota, Kansas, and Alaska while Republicans held onto Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland in 2018. Do you think it is still possible for blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats that don't have preexisting statewide name recognition to win?
Except for Ohio under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, most of the states that have ordered drastic measures like shutting down schools, restaurants and other non-essential retail businesses have been in blue states like California, NY, NJ, Washington state, etc. Red states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Georgia have been more lenient about using government actions like this.
Is there a reason for this other than some of the blue states have been hit harder by the coronavirus than red states? Are those measures worth an overreaction by blue states or an under reaction by red states?
Of the 10 states set to lose congressional power from the 2020 census all are either swing states or deep blue states with the exception of alabama https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/10-states-set-to-lose-congressional-districts-after-2020-census/ar-BBYv8wx
While most of the states set to gain are either swing states or red states https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/30/redistricting-house-2020-091451
What is the cause of these migration patterns and how will each party capitalize on these changes?
I'd appreciate any and all knowledge. Please don't be condescending on either side and say "They're voting against their best interests." etc.
Supposingly, the Rust Belt might go red although isn't that far from guaranteed and is it enough to make up those losses especially Texas and the rest including parts of the South (NC, VA, GA)? Not to mention, isn't Florida at risk if younger Cubans (and other Hispanic Americans) go blue? Shouldn't the GOP be panicking (or not necessarily/not yet)? Without necessarily throwing people who vote for them for reasons under the bus (Pro Life), how can they win back the "swing" states/indy vote?
A 538 article this week presented an interesting hypothesis. Clinton is performing very well in swing state and red state polls, and under-performing in blue state polls. That's not to say Clinton is even close to losing blue states, because she isn't. There does, however, seem to be a noticeable trend of performing worse in blue states than Obama, while beating Obama's 2012 numbers in red states.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-blue-state-polling-abyss/
And polling has been fairly static in recent weeks. The number of undecideds hasn't been decreasing like you'd normally expect. Johnson's polling numbers are stable. Everything looks very stable. So I have to ask, what gives? Is this trend evidence of the fabled "Bernie or Bust" voters? Are there groups that are simply so unhappy with both candidates that they cannot stomach either? If so, why do those groups dis-proportionally live in blue states?
