https://thedebrief.org/dunning-kruger-effect-ignorance-and-overconfidence-affect-intuitive-thinking-new-study-says/

•You probably know to clean your windshield and rear window before driving. Don’t forget to clean your headlights and taillights. Other motorists need to see you.

•All snow must be removed from the roof of your vehicle to the best of your ability. Tis the law. It can be extremely hazardous when it flies off suddenly at speed.

•Invest in a good snow scraper. Using alcohol or other “hacks” to clean your windshield could have adverse effects of your vehicle. People sometimes put cardboard on the windshield, which could make it worse if it freezes to your glass. Just get a scraper.

•Your vehicle is only as good as it’s tires. Well, it might be too late now that snow is on the ground. If you barely passed inspection recently, be extra cognizant. Tread really matters. If you have a FWD vehicle, get your best tires rotated to the front. If you have a RWD, throw some extra weight in the trunk. If you have AWD, still be mindful of your tires- they could have poor snow properties. Overconfidence is the worst trait to have when driving in the snow.

•Prevent stuck doors on freezing days by oiling your door sills with a spray silicone lubricant for less than $10. Spray onto a dry rag and wipe down your rubber door sills along the door frames. Do not use WD-40, as it is EDIT: designed not to stay in place. Home depot, walmart, and many other stores carry these types of silcone lubricants.

•Reconsider idling/ warming up your vehicle. Crazy, right? Most countries in the E.U. outlaw idling. (It’s actually why gas German vehicles don’t have remote start.) Prolong Idling hurts the environment. (“But my engine!”) Most owner’s manuals of vehicles actually suggest starting up your car and getting on your way. Your heater actually heats up faster when you are driving. If you must idle, try cutting down on the time.

Safe driving everyone!

Hello, my name is Blanderson_Snooper, and I am a Superstonk addict.

https://preview.redd.it/834z2kxrwa781.jpg?width=762&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=423cd8177a02c2cba96cf11578dc8e8e6970d4d8

My first post to Reddit was what I called a Cultural Due Diligence, an attempt to demystify the tactics of shills and the psychology of financial terrorists in order to help Apes through a rocky period in our history. I was inspired to write that post, along with the original Wargame Theory, by the excellence of Apes, as well as the need to shift Ape consciousness from the manipulations of the OG sub into a diamond-handed cohort that could stand against all the world’s media, shills, scammers, and financial institutions.

Almost a year on and we’re doing pretty good, wouldn’t you say?

https://preview.redd.it/w4gxvrbtwa781.jpg?width=607&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77ca0e6046f79994d1014cbe42cb49cc6791f89b

Our community is seven times larger than it was, and Apes have forged their own investment thesis through the dedication of our wrinklebrained DD researchers and authors. If you missed everything and everyone that led us here, check out my guide to the first seven months of DD that forged our diamond hands. We wouldn’t be here without them.

Lately, however, I’ve witnessed events that inspired me to once again offer a Cultural Due Diligence, this time a comprehensive look at the psychology of scams. Back in the spring we discovered COINTELPRO, which gave us a method for recognizing and battling bad actors and their attacks on our community. However, the terms they gave us - shills, FUD, forum sliding, etc. – have become a little long in the tooth and/or corrupted over time. Scammers never stop adapting and co-opting our culture to their criminal ends, and so we must keep evolving and adapting our defenses as well.

By the end of this post, you will have a PhD in scam detection and defense.

🚀

This post is scam-agnostic, meaning it’s not targeted at any of the scams currently being run against Apes. This is a distillation of information fro

I'm going to post the first round here, and link to the full draft (9 trades and 4 rounds) for those who want to look at the entire thing. Jameson Williams' injury and finding out a few players have announced their return to college over the past several days has caused some last minute changes so if the player drafted under the Rounds sheets doesn't match the player in the "Draft Picks by Team" sheet, please let me know.

To see the full 4 rounds, click here!

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Evan Neal, Alabama - This pick will depend on what Jacksonville does in the offseason. If they re-sign Cam Robinson, than drafting another tackle doesn't make sense and instead they will look at one of the top two edge rushers. However, if Robinson is allowed to leave and Taylor slides over to LT, the Jaguars will be in need of a new RT. Enter Neal, an absolute unit of a man who will use his strength to bully any defender who lines up across from him. Neal played both LT and RT in college, but projects best as a RT in the NFL.

2. Detroit Lions - EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan - The Lions are in a position where they could can go BPA with all of their picks and no matter who they take, it will probably fill an area of need. Whether Hutchinson or Thibodeaux is the better player will be hotly debated leading up to the draft. With the #2 overall pick the Lions go with the local kid in Hutchinson. I believe he offers a little more versatility when it comes to where he can line up on the field, which will allow the Lions DC some more flexibility with his defensive packages.

3. Houston Texans - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon - Houston will be happy with whomever is available at #3 because they can't go wrong with any of the players. Thibodeaux is an excellent pass rusher, and will be needed on a team that was one of the worst at sacking the QB in the NFL this past season. And he's not a one trick pony, Thibodeaux is also adept at stopping the run and has improved his tackling in open space.

4. New York Jets - S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame - The New York Jets need a lot of help on defense. Kyle Hamilton might just be the best player in this draft, and has enough talent and skill to offer the Jets a lot of versatility in their defensive schemes. If the Jets want Hamilton to play in the box, line up at nickel, rush the passer, or play deep coverage, he will do it and do

Essentially, "nothing's more dangerous than a little learning."

Though there is nothing wrong with questioning academic, scientific, or professional findings, it always helps to constantly remind ourselves that the experts in the field are probably more aware of hidden factors and the theories at hand than we, as enthusiasts, might be.

>The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in unskilled individuals suffering from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude.

>David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"

Reference

An interesting chain of thought arising from another discussion: why is it that the Imperial German Army does so well in WW1 while the Wehrmacht does so poorly in WW2?

This question requires a bit of explanation, as arguably the Wehrmacht accomplished more in France than the Imperial Germany Army did. However, the Wehrmacht's main accomplishments are mainly in the first three years of the war - after 1941, they stop winning campaigns and battles, and fail to keep up with the technological and tactical sophistication of the Allies. The Imperial German Army, on the other hand, was defeated mainly by attrition - they DID keep up with the tactical sophistication of the Allies, and they kept up with most of the technology too. They knocked Russia out of the war in 1917, and the German Army only collapsed after causing the breakthrough that returned the Western Front to mobile warfare in the last year of the war.

So, why the disparity? I'm not a WW2 specialist (my main war of study is WW1), but I've done some reading, and I have some theories:

1. The Wehrmacht had a worse starting point by far. The Imperial German Army was built based on decades of successful conscription, leaving it with a vital and youthful complement of officers and non-coms. The Wehrmacht, on the other hand, had its development crippled by the Treaty of Versailles over the inter-war years, forcing it to rely on WW1 veterans for its officer and non-coms.

2. Over-specialization in mobile warfare. I know this one sounds odd, but the Wehrmacht existed in a Germany where there was enough manpower to either keep a large standing army OR a functioning war economy, but not both. So, to fill out its ranks it had to call people up and, as Glantz and House put it, "win fast or not at all." This meant that so long as they were fighting a campaign where mobility was a winning strategy (such as Poland, Norway, and France) they were fine, but as soon as they had to face proper attritional warfare (Russia), they were ill-equipped. The Imperial German Army, on the other hand, was able to adapt to whatever warfare the theatre in question provided - on the Western Front they adapted to attritional warfare, and on the Eastern Front they adapted to mobile warfare.

3. Organizational dysfunction at the top. As flaky as the Kaiser could be, he did value a functioning and efficient army. Inter-service politics did exist, but they weren't specifically encouraged, and he would replace commanders who d

Out there - Patreon (for all those curious or wanting to support :))

At the Beginning

Adventure Arc - Arc 2

Previously on Leveling up the World…

 

Dame Vesuvia was Itella’s babysitter? When Dallion had seen her for the first time, back in his village, he was in awe of her power. Among the soldiers, even the Cleric of the Order, she had the presence of a goddess sent by the Archduke to destroy the monsters of the world. The power level between her and Dallion had been so vast that she couldn’t even compliment him directly. And now, Dallion was about to face someone of the family under which she had been employed. The thought sent chills down Dallion’s spine, but also filled him with eagerness and determination. This was an opportunity to see how much he had improved.

Remember overconfidence, dear boy, Nil reminded. Your goal isn’t to win.

It isn’t to lose, either, Dallion said. I’ll have more time if I win.

While correct, that was an excuse and everyone knew it. Dallion was clueless regarding the other’s skills. Attempting to get information from the noble’s weapons and gear ended in failure. The most he was able to learn was through a brief conversation with the temporary walls of the arena battle grid. If the guardian in question was to be believed, Itella had a strong sense of the base four skills and nothing more. The shape and nature of his weapons indicated that he didn’t know carving—which was a relief—though gave no indication as for the other skills. Combat splitting was a given—one didn’t reach this stage of the competition without it. Special items were also a certainty, although Dallion wasn’t able to sense anything hidden.

The countess marked the start of the round. Immediately fighters dashed forward, clashing against one another as hundreds of instances exploded throughout the arena floor. Dallion and Itella, however, didn’t budge.

“Two swords and two daggers,” the noble said. There was no music in his voice, suggesting he was merely engaging in banter.

“One dagger,” Dallion corrected. On his part, he put as much reluctance in his words as he could, using his

Ever since that card got released I check the art, name and effect of a card, to see if it tells a story.

In this case, its just overall great design!

The orc is overconfident, therefor he has +2 attack while he is at full health and has taunt, because he is acting tough as a rather small guy (on the art he looks like someone with a big mouth).

As soon as he is getting hit, he realizes how weak he actually is and loses the +2 attack bonus.

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I don't want to step on anybody's toes here, but the amount of non-dad jokes here in this subreddit really annoys me. First of all, dad jokes CAN be NSFW, it clearly says so in the sub rules. Secondly, it doesn't automatically make it a dad joke if it's from a conversation between you and your child. Most importantly, the jokes that your CHILDREN tell YOU are not dad jokes. The point of a dad joke is that it's so cheesy only a dad who's trying to be funny would make such a joke. That's it. They are stupid plays on words, lame puns and so on. There has to be a clever pun or wordplay for it to be considered a dad joke.

Again, to all the fellow dads, I apologise if I'm sounding too harsh. But I just needed to get it off my chest.

Nassim Taleb

Fooled by Randomness

• Survivorship Bias means you don't hear from the losers on a topic, you only hear from the winners.
  • Watch out judging a person by their results because history will only show you the winners. You won't hear the stories of the losers
• Over short terms, you see variance, not returns. Don't monitor your portfolio on a daily basis
• AFTER an event has occurred, it is easy to make a story as to why it happened and why people should have seen it. But it is difficult to see in advance BEFORE it happens
  • Events are more random than we think
• Negative pangs cause a 2.5x more emotional response than a positive one
• It is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made or lost when it happens that should be the consideration
  • Maximize your profit expectancy, not probability
• I try to benefit from "rare events", events that do not tend to repeat themselves frequently
• I believe that rare events are not fairly valued, and that the rarer the event, the more undervalued it will be in price
• Investors for pure emotional reasons, will be drawn into strategies that experience rare but large variations.
• Pascal's Wager – The optimal strategy for humans is to believe in God because if God does exist the believer will be rewarded and if he doesn't exist, the believer has nothing to lose.
  • IE - Inequality of outcomes, don't try to pick up nickels in front of a train
• There is no point in searching for patterns that are available to everyone; once detected, they would be self-canceling
• "One cannot judge a performance in any given field by the results, but by the costs of the alternative (i.e. if history played out in a different way). Such substitutes courses of events are called alternative histories. Cleary the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome.
• Past events will always look less random than they were (hindsight bias)
• Probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or brain teaser
• No one accepts randomness in their success, only in their failure
• Take into account the costs of mistakes
• Bad information is worse than no information at all
• 5 traits of a Market Fool
  • Overestimating accuracy of data or overconfidence
  • Getting married to positions
  • Changing story
  • No plans for taking losses or exit strategy
  • Denial of luck and randomness

**

I assume you have made your way here from some of the recent SuperStonk posts on the front page of reddit. I understand your confusion. We all felt it at one point. Here is my best attempt at catching you up!

https://preview.redd.it/pwy696qx1fw71.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4b682ef59f873c2576279e57c3f8c0b60e3277fc

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GameStop? Really? You mean that dying brick and mortar video game retailer?

Yep the very same one. Lets start with a 1 minute video explaining why GME is worth your attention. You need to make the decision for yourself whether 650k people are retarded or onto something. I am pretty biased but I truly believe the price movements you have seen so far are nothing compared to what's coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRytCmHR-1w

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Wait! Are you saying that GME is also a long term fundamental play?

Lets begin with a video from the man, the myth, the legend, the one and only u/DeepFuckingValue that started this whole saga. Here is the bull thesis for GME.

https://youtu.be/alntJzg0Um4

he basic idea is that GameStop was relegated to an early grave while it was still alive and kicking. Many things have happened since then including a bunch of short hedge funds getting so overconfident in its demise that they bit off way more than they could chew and shorted over 100% of the freely traded shares of the company

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So what happened in January? Wasn't that the squeeze?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3xj0EJ8fxk

Not even close. It was just the beginning. We approached an almost complete implosion of the propped up financial system and most brokers removed the ability for retail investors to buy shares of GME. Once the buy button was turned off the thesis is based on the idea that short hedge funds doubled down and shorted the stock even more. We have tons of DD explaining this that I will link below. Since then as more and more retail investors continued to buy GME the price has risen back