Hyperbolic discounting Puns

Hey I was wondering if anyone dealt with executive disfunctions and hyperbolic discounting?! Rather than telling me basics, tell me specific tips which helped! The more esoteric the better, because I read many articles/videos and many things are simply N/A for me, or I can't use them yet!

Because I have also existential boredom and depression and chronic pain and fatigue and I can't do anything 75-90% of a day... I won't be describing my situation, because people can't grasp it anyways, so don't ask me... Nothing entertains me more than watching a wall and willing doesn't work (as will is limited resources) and I have 0 motivation, so it has to be something else...

Atomic habits are not bad, but I have mostly nothing to do whole day. Even if I went 0.5km walk a day with daily increments. I will do inevitably something stupid, which sets me behind days/weeks. Like going to sleep at 3-6AM. I have 0 self-control... Problem is to be consistent and I can't even recall anything during a day, as I have huge headache and if I set timers - I defer them 50 times, or because other reasons don't do anything! I can't plan and execute even simplest things often times, 90% of times from boredom and what not... I Am completely lost...

E.g. I defer going to sleep 500 times and listen to 1 song even 8 hours during my worst days. And my brain literally hurts from boredom like torture, it is not even pain!!! I Am bored to death of 6 years doing nothing coz chronic pain!!!

TL:DR Just tell me any tips for executive disfunctions and hyperbolic discounting and procrastination, bedtime procrastination, will, habits and so on... I don't know everything, this would help!!!

Thanks!

Hey guys, just trying my hand at making a few YouTube videos on things I find interesting. Let me know what you think. https://youtu.be/aX5WcBbehPM

Hey, I was wondering if anyone has access to Mazur's 1987 groundbreaking article "An adjusting procedure for studying delayed reinforcement", or perhaps to the book from where it's from, namely volume V of Quantitative Analyses of Behavior: "The Effect of Delay and ofIntervening Events on Reinforcement Value". Can't find it anywhere.

For example, taking a loan from a 401k, if I discount the cash flows exponentially at the investment rate of return I find that it's a push you are just accelerating when you consume the money. now we can argue about using that discount rate but that is still within an exponential framework.

So how would i use hyperbolic discounting for something like this? What parameters would I need to define (eg for exponential discounting just define the periodic rate)? And what would be the literal math (eg for exponential it is CFn/(1+R)^N)

it looks like where exponential discount factors are e^(-kD) with k = rate and D = period the hyperbolic should be 1/(1+kd) however doing this in my example, lets say a 7% investment return divided by 12 to get monthly and we'll look at a period 3 years in the future:

e^(-0.07/12*36) = 0.81058424597

1/(1+0.07/12*36) = 0.82644628099

which seems to go against what i am reading about hyperbolic discounting where the discount factor should be less (ie discount it more) in the future

According to hyperbolic discounting, the discount rate declines over time.

If we use PV=FV*(1/1+r)

as r falls as expected from hyperbolic discounting, the present value of a future outcome is supposed to fall. In the formula above, if you decrease r, the present value rises, so its clearly the wrong formula. What is the correct one?

I originally posted this on my Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jack.hodkinson1/posts/10156973414174418

Here's the full text:

We care more about things that are about to happen than things that will happen a long time in the future. This is pretty rational. To give a financial example, I should prefer to have £100 today than £100 in a year's time, since in the meantime I might be able to invest that £100 to earn some extra money.

A perfectly rational being would discount future events exponentially with a constant rate. If I discount the future at a rate of 110% per year, say, I would be indifferent about receiving £100 now, £110 on 31/12/18, or £121 on 31/12/19, and so on.

However, in 1975 economist George Ainsle published an important paper, "Specious reward: a behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control", in which he argued that humans tend to discount the future not exponentially, but hyperbolically. This means that we give near events much much more attention than they deserve. To continue the financial example, in an early study subjects said they would be indifferent between receiving $15 immediately or $30 after 3 months, $60 after 1 year, or $100 after 3 years. These indifferences reflect annual discount rates that declined from 277% to 139% to 63% as delays got longer, in contrast to exponential discounting, where the rate would be constant.

This can easily be seen to be irrational. Would you prefer £50 today or £60 in three months' time? I bet you would prefer £50 today. How about £50 in 24 months time, or £60 in 27 months time? Most people switch their preference (if you didn't, perhaps you can see that some other numbers would persuade you to), but this is irrational, since you're being offered the same choice just two years in advance.

How does this apply to real life? I think it's a fairly common experience to resolve not to have a biscuit tomorrow morning, but when tomorrow morning comes along, you have the biscuit anyway. Is there any way that we can make resolutions stronger, to increase our chances of following through?

Consider a concert pianist who gives a concert every night after dinner. In advance, she would prefer not to drink alcohol at dinner, and give a good performance. But when dinner rolls along, she drinks, sabotaging her performance. She temporarily prefers drinking on Monday to playing well, but the events on Tuesday and after are far enough away that she still prefers to play well on those nights. So

I am currently researching different time-discounting models for a paper. I just wanted to check if I understand the generalised hyperbola used in the model correctly. Since alpha and beta in the model are constant, are they a property inherent to a given individual? So, if I wanted to calculate the value of the hyper. discount function for different individuals, would alpha and beta be different? (Sorry if the question is silly, I am having some trouble putting the model into words in my paper so I wanted to check.)

Individuals are often affected by what is called the temporal myopia (near sightedness). The consumer's typical response to uncertainty in this case is to sharply reduce the importance of the future of their decision making. This effect is called hyperbolic discounting. In the common tongue it reflects the sentiment “Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we may die.”

However, embracing the “Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we may die” mentality is not good advice for most people, especially if you want to have a sound financial future or get out of poverty.

Discounting is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. Hyperbolic discounting leads to choices that are inconsistent over time – people make choices today that their future selves would prefer not to have made, despite using the same reasoning. Hyperbolic discounting is considered a cognitive bias that has been observed in humans and animals such as pigeons, rats, and monkeys. However, humans have the ability of self awareness, and if you learn to recognize it, you can overcome it.

In order to make the best financial decisions for your future it is important to learn how to recognize and overcome the tendency toward irrational hyperbolic discounting.

Examples:

For instance, a nicotine deprived smoker may highly value a cigarette available any time in the next 6 hours but assign little or no value to an entire carton of cigarettes available in 6 months. They would gladly give up a whole carton later in exchange for one immediately. However, once 6 months has arrived, they end up regretting their decision. On the other-hand, if the same offer was presented, with an additional 1 week waiting period: 1 cigarette after 1 week and 6 hours, or a carton of cigarettes after 1 week and 6 months, they will choose to wait for the extra 6 months for the carton. Once they receive their reward, looking back they are pleased with their decision. The only difference was 1 extra week, yet they made the opposite decision.

In both scenarios, the "best" decision for the future was to wait long enough to receive the whole carton, yet because of the smoker's cognitive bias of hyperbolic discounting the smoker made the wrong decision in the first scenario.

For another instance, when offered the choice between 500,000 MINT now or 1,000,000 MINT a year from now, many people will choose the immediate 500,000. However, given the choice bet

Prior to 2020, I was a wedding DJ. I started DJing for friends right after college and gradually got more and more gigs through word of mouth.

Like any new endeavor, in the beginning my services were priced aggressively low to get business. Also I was more willing to travel long distances to get a gig + a good review. A few years in and I had enough clout to be choosier about my gigs, but one day I got an email from the friend of a former bride. She asked if I could do the same package, which included a lower price AND a distance farther than I liked to travel. I decided it was worth it - the weekend was open and I was likely to get a good review.

The wedding is going fine, and we are about an hour into the dancing when the bride's sister approaches and asks me to play some 90s pop song. Britney or something, I don't recall exactly. I oblige and turn it on. Within seconds the bride stumbles over to me and screams, "Do NOT play anything that b*tch asks for! This song is on my 'Do Not Play' list, stick to the playlist I gave you!!"

I'm very taken aback - a key tenet of DJing is understanding what songs a client DOES NOT want to hear. I quickly look through the "do not play" list, and this song is definitely not on it. Furthermore, the playlist the bride had provided sucked.

I normally tell couples that I will stick to their list, but if the party needs more "oomph" I will go and do my own thing. After all, hopefully a DJ can adapt to the moment better than a pre-made playlist. But, after giving this bride a discount, driving farther than I wanted, and being drunkenly berated for something that wasn't even true I just didn't care. For the next 1.5 hours, I only played the worst songs from her list and didn't even try to create a flow. The party totally died.

I never got that review - worth it.

TL;DR: Bride asks me to stick to her poorly curated playlist. I do so, and party sucks.

EDIT: My typical approach (and that of most DJs) is to ask for a list of songs from the couple, use that to determine the style / vibe they are going for, and then to play those songs while mixing in other choices along the way. This is part of the initial discussion and understood / agreed to by the couple. We also talk about whether or not requests should be allowed from the crowd. This wedding was no different - the couple was fine with this approach. That's why they hired me, actually - because it worked so well at their friend's wedding two years earlier.

No w

I believe that the climate surrounding the discussion of Intel stock has caused it to enter the realm of hyperbolic discounting. One claim I hear over and over again is that it is a "value trap" such as AT&T or IBM. Luckily, we retail investors have data and the internet to be able to fact check such claims.

To do this, I used data from gurufocus and macrotrends. I plotted two graphs, one representing the PE at the end of each year, the other was the ROIC-WACC. I chose ROIC-WACC (%), because ROIC is one of the most important determinations of whether a company is doing better than an average index. The results were surprising. First, there is no similar comparison to be made of AT&T vs Intel nor IBM. AT&T has an average ROIC-WACC of 1.2, IBM 6.9, Intel 10.7, Apple 17.4, and Microsoft 18.4. A company with an average ROIC-WACC of 1.2 is not a value play.

The average 10 year ROICs were AT&T 5.4, IBM 13, Intel 17.8, Apple 25.6, and Microsoft 26.1. Intel's ROIC is well above the S&P average of 7.2 and yet the average PE is 27.6 vs Intel at a PE of 11. I chose Microsoft and Apple for a comparison, because these two stocks were also thought to be a dying stock in the past. However, often times there is a difference between a narrative being told and the data. ROIC-WACC was strong for these companies, and naturally they have done quite well, despite the news surrounding their demise. Note that Intel now has a PE less than IBM and AT&T now. While future ROIC is difficult to predict, Intel still has a good running ROIC, and with current interest rates, now is the best time for more capital investment because it allows WACC to be kept lower.

https://preview.redd.it/dpq7mfes5hv71.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=157108dc0c5af79f8c89882a77c1dac3e577a4c6

https://preview.redd.it/gfqqgv3t5hv71.png?width=659&format=png&auto=webp&s=0aac75381d57329840726dde08d1ec7138960423

You can find out more about why even Nobel-winning economists procrastinate, how “hyperbolic discounting” interferes with time-related decision-making, how the “planning fallacy” undermines people’s ability to make accurate predictions, and more in this witty and well-researched piece on procrastination by James Surowiecki from The New Yorker.

btw, what makes you procrastinate? Are there any reasons for it, or is it not a problem for you?

More articles like this on different self-improvement topics can be found here for free.

I don't want to step on anybody's toes here, but the amount of non-dad jokes here in this subreddit really annoys me. First of all, dad jokes CAN be NSFW, it clearly says so in the sub rules. Secondly, it doesn't automatically make it a dad joke if it's from a conversation between you and your child. Most importantly, the jokes that your CHILDREN tell YOU are not dad jokes. The point of a dad joke is that it's so cheesy only a dad who's trying to be funny would make such a joke. That's it. They are stupid plays on words, lame puns and so on. There has to be a clever pun or wordplay for it to be considered a dad joke.

Again, to all the fellow dads, I apologise if I'm sounding too harsh. But I just needed to get it off my chest.

I have chronic pain and chronic boredom 6 years and I can't do anything whole day!!! It is to a point now: I Am going crazy!!! I can't even play PC games anymore, because pain (I have RSI)!!! And I can't take TV shows mentally as well, I would rather poke my eyes... Only thing which works for me... and believe me I read more than million of articles about everything which exists (this is how geniuses deal with boredom and suffering) is to experience pure beauty & unknown when you are fully delved into your work, then you become nothing free from suffering!!! Only and only if in these moments I can escape boredom and suffering and experience pleasure in a euphoric state!!! I tried everything else at this point...

Problem is I can't even fucking read! I have humongous headache! It is to a point that I Am sitting an watching whole whole day and anything I do doesn't feel any better! I know it won't be yet months to years, before I will be able to do anything mind stimulating! But my boredom is getting worse and I can't take it anymore - this pain!!! It hurts soooo fuuuuuuckkkkkiiiiiiing much! I experienced torturous pain 4 times (up to 9/10) so I have frame of reference and I Am telling you: boredom is the worst - unless you are just dying in fire...

I don't know what to do, I can't make myself to do anything!!!!!!! Even if I try to go exercise, because I have severe back pain: even after 5 minutes I get strong pain in my brain, that I have to stop... I Am more bored than prisoners in max. Life is prison for me and there is no escape!!! This is pure and unadulterated suffering!!!

I suffer from: existential boredom, MDD, BPD, procrastionation, bedtime procrastination, hyperbolic discounting, executive disfunctions and 30 other mental disorders (including emotional problems) not kidding!!!

Anything you could advice me on procrastination, or getting pleasure I would be eternally grateful! Don't give me some generic advice, I probably know it already... I will try existential psychotherapy, but that still won't solve my boredom!!! I don't know how I will survive upcoming months!!!!!!!!! But it is the paradox: only thing which entertains me is the thing I can't do! I spent thousands of hours searching for something to do, but everything is disgusting to me!!! I don't know how to get out of this state!!! It is like being tortured every second!!! It is indescribable pain and suffering!!! Charles Dickens said: he would rather be tortured than being b

Do your worst!

First / Previous / Next

Kathmin stared at the data slate, a sense of dread descending over him. He’d hypothesized these creatures had, at one time, inhabited the galaxy, but from the anecdotes and stories he’d gathered during his research, he just assumed they had to be extinct. No creature that predatory and warlike could still exist. Forming a cohesive society would be impossible. Even if the ancient stories were discounted for hyperbole and effect, no civilized culture could withstand the stressors that level of sustained love of violence would create. In some old tales, if they weren’t fighting the gods, they fought each other.

Kathmin looked up. “Is this a joke, Rhubul,” he asked? “Cause it’s not funny.”

Rhubul sighed, “It’s no joke, Kathmin. They call themselves, Humans.”

Kathmin shuddered, “If only half of what I know about these creatures is true, even our fanged friend’s people here will pose them no threat. The Dursk would be like children before an angry god.”

Rhubul, suddenly looking older, replied, “Kathmin, they are real, they are here, and if anything, your stories fall short of reality. Zhiela, perhaps you’d like to be the one to tell him what happened when the Human vessel translated into Roade?”

Zhiela turned serious, “As I said, the ship disappeared from the scopes of our research station and, in almost the exact moment, appeared on our screens near the star in Roade…

------------

Commander Rigel was socializing with his captains in the officer’s lounge, on the Vigilant, following their weekly dinner. He found these times valuable in fomenting cooperation and competition among his direct reports. The weekly opportunity to showcase their accomplishments and hear about their fellow captains’ work pushed them all to be more efficient and effective with their crews and vessels. He glanced at the viewscreen, displaying a sweeping panorama looking off the bow of the ship. The Vigilant was a cruiser, class 2, and she was his. She was beautifully designed with point defense and beam placements at strategic locations all around. He’d earned his honors in numerous border skirmishes on the Outer Rim. While the Dursk hadn’t fought a war of conquest since the GU Campaigns 500 years ago ground them to a standst

I'm surprised it hasn't decade.

Warning: this is depressive even for average nihilist standards! And smarter you are the worse this can affect you! Read for your own risk!!! I can't even speak about everything, I wouldn't wish that knowledge to my worst enemy! Because it is so terrible, that I can't even say... Maybe even telling this is too much, as it tells you something is wrong, but I Am so bored man...

Man I Am not sure, if I will be even able to put this into worlds, as what I Am going through is indescribable!

I Am suffering from ultimate existential boredom! Nothing entertains me literally more than watching a wall at this point! I Am bored more than prisoners in max! As I Am authentic, I see world closer to what it truly is!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301683980_Existential_Boredom_Re-examined_Boredom_as_Authenticity_and_Life-Affirmation

About me:

• I had relatively high IQ (don't know exactly, but probably like 130-145 in that range, based on multiple things, I would take IQ test but I have chronic pain 6 years, so now I have IQ like 90, so it wouldn't matter, tho working memory I have in like top 0.03% percentile, so I Am not entirely dumb now) and I have overexcitabilities: I got fucked by so many things so hard, that I don't even!!!
• I have ASD & ADHD
• More importantly I have also high RQ, I Am near a superrational thinker - as people with ASD don't factor emotions into their reasoning - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... nd%20anger not decision-maker tho, because everyone (even most logical person) decides by emotions at the end https://bigthink.com/personal-growth/decisions-are-emotional-not-logical-the-neuroscience-behind-decision-making/
• I have aphantasia (no mind's eye) and almost no imagination therefore I Am excellent at logical thinking https://iai.tv/articles/why-humans-are-the-most-irrational-animals-auid-1239&utm_source=reddit&_auid=2020
• I have bad long-term memory, but great working memory/sequential

For context I'm a Refuse Driver (Garbage man) & today I was on food waste. After I'd tipped I was checking the wagon for any defects when I spotted a lone pea balanced on the lifts.

I said "hey look, an escaPEA"

No one near me but it didn't half make me laugh for a good hour or so!

Edit: I can't believe how much this has blown up. Thank you everyone I've had a blast reading through the replies 😂

It really does, I swear!