2 weeks out from the election, two A-rated pollsters have released new polls. Both polls indicate that voters want to keep Newsom (the lead is around 8 points in both)
SurveyUSA (A) - (8/26-8/28)
Out of 816 Likely Voters: 51% Keep, 43% Remove
Some stats from this poll:
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Younger voters are more likely to recall Newsom. Voters ages 18-34 want to recall him, 51% to 38%. Most of the older electorate wants him to stay
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Unvaccinated voters want the governor out by 49 points, the vaccinated want to keep him by 23 points
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Among voters who chose for a recall candidate, Larry Elder has 27% of the vote. He has a significant lead by far. The candidates closest to him (Paffrath [D] and Cox [R]) only have 6% respectively.
Trafalgar Group (A-) - (8/26-8/29)
Out of 1088 Likely Voters: 52% Keep, 44% Remove (Margin of Error: 2.98%)
Some stats from this poll:
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Among voters who chose for a recall candidate, Larry Elder has 29% of the vote. Kevin Paffrath has 22%.
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Over 70% of voters are at or over 35 years old
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48% of voters are Democrats. ~26% Republicans. ~26% Independents
A new poll has Newsom LOSING the recall election.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36cdcb0b-7cfa-4b55-8704-d1f02a9fe6e5
>51% of likely voters in California's upcoming gubernatorial recall election today would vote Yes to recall incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KGTV 10News and The San Diego Tribune.
>40% would vote No, to keep Newsom in office.
AND:
The top Republican (Larry Elder) is running at 23%.
>Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTuber and real estate broker, takes 27% of the replacement vote today. Paffrath draws particular support from younger voters, Latinos, Democrats and liberals, and leads 12:1 among those who who are opposed to recalling Newsom. Paffrath leads 2:1 in greater Los Angeles and by 35 points in urban parts of the state.
I’ve never heard of him, but from his website:
https://www.meetkevin.com
>NO Covid 2.0 Lockdowns. Covid: Vaccines are a choice. Masks are a choice. Businesses shall have the right to remain OPEN — however, reasonable “HEPA-filtration” and ventilation requirements may be an option, but we will NOT have lockdowns again.
Keep in mind that people who vote “no” on the recall, can still vote for the replacement.
Edit: BTW, Survey USA has an A rating from Five Thirty Eight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e
The same pollster had Biden +2 and Perdue +3 in mid-October.
https://preview.redd.it/3yp48x6vmz261.png?width=2186&format=png&auto=webp&s=e95076a64de097cc3372b10f6e58d6a2e8d52ae2
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e
DEM Warnock - 52
GOP Loeffler - 45
This is great news. This is a high quality poll, folks. Rated A
No other candidate has more than 1%. Beto is at 1%
https://preview.redd.it/rt4dhf6f64f31.png?width=1558&format=png&auto=webp&s=56cd4827fe71e88b8f0075a36da3ee12b3f55cb8
