The Mosul dam is the 5th largest dam in the world, built to control the flood of the massive Tigris river into the city of Mosul and throughout Iraq, including into the capitol of Baghdad. However, the dam was built on the water soluble mineral of Gypsum, forcing the dam to need constant maintenance. During the invasion of Iraq, demolition of the dam was a concern following the capture of Baghdad and hunt for Saddam and even in 2014 when Iraqi forces fought ISIS for control of the dam.
But what if Saddam ordered the destruction of the dam anyways, seeking to keep Americans away from the spoils of war and enacting a scorched earth policy? As the capitol is about to fall, the dam is blown apart and a 300-400 ft high wall of water storms down the Tigris, destroying Mosul and every city along the river's banks. A few hours later, in the thick of the fighting between Iraqi and American forces, a tidal wave hits Baghdad, devastating the already ruined city. The worst case scenario, nearly 1 million dead and a million more displaced from their homes. Mosul is under 60 ft of water. Baghdad under 15 ft.
So how does this change the Iraq war and the broader war on terror? How does such a massive disaster shape public perception of the Bush administration's campaign? What happens to Iraq on top of the conflicts and eventual toppling of it's regime? How do Iraq's neighbors in Iran, Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia react to the crisis? How does this shape the Arab spring in 2012 and eventual rise of Isis? And how does the world react to the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century thus far?
