QBs taken in the 1st round:
2014
Blake Bortles - received extension in 2018 off-season
Johnny Manziel - was cut after his 2nd season with the Browns
Teddy Bridgewater - His option was not picked up and left via free agency in 2018 off-season
2015:
Jameis Winston - Team let go via free agency
Marcus Mariota - Team let go via free agency
2016:
Jared Goff - received extension in 2019 off-season
Carson Wentz - received extension in 2019 off-season
Paxton Lynch - was cut in his 2nd year by the Broncos
No QB from 2017-2019 draft class have received extensions yet.
2017 - Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson
2018 - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson
2019 - Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins
If you've spent any time on Reddit (particularly /r/nfl or /r/fantasyfootball) you'll notice that the en vogue team to regress this year are our beloved Bears in large part because of our QB Mitch Trubisky.
Fans of other teams gather in their echo chamber and pluck the low-hanging fruit that is last years' Jaguars team as proof the Bears are on a similar trajectory. No one seems to give the Bears the benefit of the doubt and why would they when it's easier to parrot cheap talking points than do any research.
The first huge fallacy in this argument is the Trubisky = Bortles comparison. Let's look at Bortles 2017. His face-value stats are as follows:
315 / 523 (60.2%) w/ 3687 yards, 21 TDs, and 13 INT.
That was the Jags playoff year when Bortles was "good" but paled to his 2015 season that people champion. But let's dig a little deeper.
Bortles, even during his best year (2015), only had a TD% of 5.8%. That was on a 5-11 team that found itself playing in a ton of garbage time and even then Bortles inaccuracy in the short range (10 yards and fewer from the LOS) was apparent. He only completed 76% of his passes here (238 / 312) for 12 TD and 6 picks. Again, this was his best year. Last year he was again at 76% (190/249) but his TD:INT ratio was 4:3
Now, let's look at Trubisky. In the same range (10 yards in) Trubisky was at 82% completion (237/288) and had 12 TDs to 1 INT. Pretty damn good and in Nagy's offense that's the money area for him that serves as the building block for the downfield passing game. Also Trubisky has shown improvement where Bortles has been exactly the same since 2015 in regards to his accuracy. His best year in completion percentage was last year when it was 60.3%! Trubisky's was 66.6%.
In fact, Trubisky's TD % last year at 5.5 was almost as good as Bortles in his best year and Trubisky was on a 12-4 team with a new offense and new pieces.
The player we should expect Trubisky to look like this year is Carson Wentz.
In Wentz's rookie season under Doug Pederson he was 379/607 (62.4%) for 3782 yards, 16 TD and 14 INTs. His TD % was 2.6 and his INT % was 2.3.
In the same area (10 yards in) Wentz had a 78% completion percentage (291/371) for 8 TD / 5 INT.
Wentz obviously had some growing pains in the Reid-style offense that Pederson (and Nagy run) but showed promise in his first year and took a big leap in year 2. Well on his way to an MVP award (if not for tearing his ACL) Wentz was 265 / 440 for
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I’m wondering if a team like the Giants, Broncos or Jags would have to trade all the way up to #1 for him. He’s a very good prospect but is he that good?
