May 68 Puns

Time to read: 8 minutes

I'm not that great at advanced stocks analysis and how the market works ,but let’s say I have a little bit of decent knowledge about the Science of drug development and approval, so my thesis will be about the science of HGEN.

Humanigen

Humanigen Is a small biopharmaceutical company was listed in the stock market in 2013. $HGEN lead product is a drug called “Lenzilumab”, this drug is an anti-human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (“GM-CSF”), I know such a big complicated words, simply it means a drug which lower major inflammation caused by Covid infection which can cause death if not handled well.

The catalyst Lenzilumab ، what is so special about it

Lenzilumab targets the GM-CSF to fix a major problem that causes severe covid disease Something terrifying it’s called the cytokines storm. Cytokines storm is an exaggerated response to covid infection which can cause multi-organ failure then death (1). Lenzilumab is a unique drug that target cytokines storm and the phase 3 clinical trial was successful in preventing the progress to a major disease which can cause death .

Lenzilumab significantly improved survival without invasive mechanical ventilation “ when the patient can’t breathe by his own and risk of death is high “ in hospitalised patients with COVID-19, with a safety profile similar to that of placebo (2).

The study about efficacy of Lenzilumab was peer-reviewed and published by the Lancet journal it’s a big deal journal with impact Factor 79·321 which means low-grade bad studies don’t get published easily on the Lancet.

EUA and the special 68.1% number

$HGEN stock price right now is under 3.660$ and it reached above 28.5$ in anticipation of EUA “Emergency Use Authorization” from FDA which failed and it blunted down to current price. Why the hell would I think about $HGEN when it failed EUA Well, because the rejection of EUA was not because lack of efficacy or major side effects but simply for lack of strong evidence .

FDA said to HGEN in a letter ""the agency was unable to conclude that the known and potential benefits of Lenzilumab outweighed the known and potential risks of its use as a treatment for the virus"".

Be aware this was before the Lancet peer-review for phase3 study which makes it easier for FDA to take a decision for EUA next time HGEN applies for EUA request. But this is a long-shot scenario that can’t justify investing in HGEN after it sank to 3.66

In May 1968 in (consumerist, industrialized superpower) France, independently from any existing mass left-wing party or labor union, a mass wildcat strike happened, starting with students and extending to all sectors of labor, and workers spontaneously organized into workers' councils to fulfill the needs of their political activity while the French state all but collapsed, with the president ultimately fleeing for a while. What is your analysis of it and how and why it ultimately failed?

Link to report: https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2021-05-31.pdf

Detailed tables: Google Sheets mode and HTML of Sheets

• 31 of today's ICUs are from Manitioba

Throwback Ontario May 31 update: 326 New Cases, 457 Recoveries, 19 Deaths, 17,014 tests (1.92% positive), Current ICUs: 156 (+1 vs. yesterday) (-20 vs. last week)

Testing data: - Source

• Backlog: 7,087 (-1,648), 18,226 tests completed (2,661.1 per 100k in week) --> 16,578 swabbed
• Positive rate (Day/Week/Prev Week): 5.03% / 3.82% / 5.41% - Chart

Episode date data (day/week/prev. week) - Cases by episode date and historical averages of episode date

• New cases with episode dates in last 3 days: 348 / 545 / 765 (-147 vs. yesterday week avg)
• New cases - episode dates in last 7 days: 642 / 921 / 1,186 (-187 vs. yesterday week avg)
• New cases - ALL episode dates: 916 / 1,284 / 1,568 (-238 vs. yesterday week avg)

Other data:

• 7 day average: 1,078 (-76 vs. yesterday) (-697 or -39.3% vs. last week), (-2,540 or -70.2% vs. 30 days ago)
• Active cases: 12,567 (-804 vs. yesterday) (-7,471 vs. last week) - Chart
• Current hospitalizations: 731(-18), ICUs: 617(+3), Ventilated: 382(-35), [vs. last week: -252 / -70 / -96] - [Chart](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2P

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