God of Gamblers Returns Puns

I go to a casino and walk over to the first table I see. The sign above the table says, "Kelly's Game". The dealer says, "Place a bet and The House will flip a coin. If you win the flip, The House will pay you 150% your money back. If you lose the bet, The House will keep 40% and return the remaining 60% to you."

"That sounds great," I say. Positive expected value. If I bet a lot, I should expect to get 105% of my money back on average. That's a good bet. "What's the catch?"

"Ah, yes. There is one more rule," says the dealer. "You must bet all of the money you have each bet or not at all."

How many times should I bet?

My intuition tells me that the more times I bet, the better I should do. The law of large numbers should mean that over time, my overall winnings per bet converge on my expected value of 105%. In the long run, I feel like this is a rational bet. So, my strategy will be to make the bet 800 times and see where I am at.

Since I'm betting all my money on each bet, I can only actually test my strategy once. Let's think of that as a single universe, my universe, where we see a single unique chain of events. But, before I actually go to the casino and bet it all, I want to guess what my universe will likely actually look like. To do that, we will simulate a multitude of universes, each completely independent of the others.

Here's 1,000 simulations of my strategy where each colored line is my total bank, each simulating a single possible universe where I execute the strategy faithfully:

1000 simulations of 800 sequential bets of 100% of the bank with 50% to go 1.5x or 0.6x

Notice the log Y scale. The dashed grey line with slope of 0 is breaking even. Negative slopes are losing money, and positive slopes are winning against The House.

The dotted black line is what I expected to gain, 105% per bet for 800 bets, netting me an expected 80,000,000,000,000 more than I started with. If I take the average of an infinite number of universes, my mean return is equal to the dotted black line.

But I only sampled 1,000 universes. After 800 bets, only 1 universe in 1,000 has (just barely) more money than they started with. The more bets that I make, the worse it gets for me. The typical (median) return marked by the dashed white line is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 less than what I started with (

There is one scene that I vividly remember: a person (woman?) is challenged to roll several special dices using a cup (very similar to the God of Gambler dice battle scene). The dices are powdery and break apart very easily, which makes it impossible to roll them normally. The person solves the challenge by standing under a chandelier and catching the falling wax from the burning candles to "harden" the dices.

I've known nothing but miracles

And it makes me wonder,

Is he embarrassed about it?

That maybe, He means no harm...

But God is a compulsive gambler

And I,  his lucky charm.

https://www.reddit.com/r/OCPoetry/comments/qjbvei/guardian_angel/hiqkm4n?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/OCPoetry/comments/qjhslo/illumines_being/hiqkeue?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

Har tänkt att börja investera i kryptovaluta. Vilken plattform använder ni? Jag söker en plattform som funkar bra till mobilen men är absolut inget måste. En förklaring till varför ni använder sagd plattform är önskvärt.

Om ni även har något tips till en någorlunda vettig ”kursskärm” så skulle jag uppskatta det, har börjat tröttna på avanzas egna.

Mvh

We just saw a cycle where useless dog coins ran up to 50 BN market cap and more. People were selling millions of dollar worth "profile pictures". Scams and hacks were a daily occurrence. The NFT space was and continues to be a perpetual clown show, lions, penguins, dogs, punk jpegs being sold for thousands of dollars. What even is this market. It puts every other bubble in history of mankind to shame.

If you wonder why the non-crypto crowd hates crypto and NFT viciously, it’s not an isolated incident or two, but a culmination of multiple events that are textbook examples of the worst capitalism has to offer.

Earlier in 2021, when I saw hit pieces against crypto, I thought they were quite wrong and were attacking crypto as they missed out on the gains. But over time it's very clear that there is a lot of merit to the attacks on crypto. The entire space has become a circus of greed, scams, zero sum offerings where one is looking to profit from another. If you go to other reddit subs like r/technology, they are all spot on about crypto, the whole space is one big clown world detached from fundamentals.

You dont even need to bring in energy consumption into this, even without it crypto is a market aggregating the worsts of the worst. Even now, there is little to no real world adoption of crypto, and instead you have a perpetual grifting scheme where people rush into new launches just to dump them at a higher value and profit off late entrants. Think 2017 cycle but on steroids with thousands of new coins.

You have exchanges and other large players legitimising ponzi schemes by giving them attention and even running dog money competitions. You had large defi protocols add ponzi tokens as collateral. Guess what happens to that $100k loan that was taken out using OHM as collateral, when OHM itself crashes 80% in a matter of weeks. A culmination of all of these is cascading liquidations and steep corrections.

You have coins with 50 BN FDV, where insiders hold 90% of the supply and retail buys these coins at the very top because they told to FOMOing into every coin that an exchange adds. In particular, what FTX and the whole scam Sam ecosystem they have encouraged is disgusting, if not downright criminal. Institutions and VCs got into these coins at cents to the dollar valuation, and exchanges added them at exorbitant valuations allowing the insiders to cash out handsomely within just weeks. Influencers and ponzi pumpers ran with “FDV is a meme” narrative

When I first started GME I bought 2 shares for $336 just to say I was here for the ride.

THEN these fuckers made it dip 90% and triggered my inner gambler.

Let me tell you how bad of a gambling addiction I had. I would get off of work, go to a casino and drop $500-1000 playing lowstakes poker and blackjack all night until my next shift the next day and go in to work with the same clothes on. And I did that for years. I eventually 86'ed myself from multiple casinos cause the problem was getting so out of hand.

I have since been productive working, going to school and not gambling. And then the hedgies woke up the beast.

I liquidated all my boomer stocks and said now this shit is personal and FOMO'ed into GME. Roughly 15k

I'm not stopping til you feel the pain fuckers. Eat shit and get fucked hedgies.

Buying more this week once my student financial aid comes in.

BUY and HODL 💎🙌🚀🦍🌕

Today I finished Gambler #9 in under two hours! Kinda proud! Had quite some days I wasn’t so lucky. Now only #10 awaits me, and after that I’ll visit Arthur’s grave. And then… 100%! I’ll catch some sleep now, but it’s exciting to know tomorrow will be the moment I’ve been building up to for quite some months now! Yay!

Source

Former Nebraska and Oregon State head coach Mike Riley is the coach of the New Jersey Generals.