Betting strategy Puns

I've been wondering if there's someway I can make money off options without thinking too much about iv.

I’ve heard a good strategy is for example

Bet $20 and if you win you go to $10 and if you win again you go to $20 then $10 and so on. Then once you lose you just keep betting $20 until you win again and repeat the same strategy.

Maybe that’s a bad way to bet? Anyone else have there own betting strategy without counting or knowing a good idea what cards are next?

Slight rant:

Been betting for like 5 years now, have read a lot on gambling, experimented a lot, tried the whole modelling thing, written thousands of lines of code chasing that dream and it was all for nothing. I have friends who don't even think beyond the basics of football betting but when you tally how much they've won in that period they're in the green way more than I am. They play the usual on-a-hunch large accumulators and once or thrice a year they strike big. It's a fucking joke haha. I'm just disillusioned and don't feel like putting any effort. I read a quote once that in football betting on a long enough timeline and string of bets the guy who does strategic betting and the random gambler are almost indistinguishable. "Football is a stochastic" I read on this sub once, pretty cynical outlook but I feel like I'm starting to agree with it more as the days go by

Anyway, as a fun exercise, I've always wondered the chances of someone striking big if they played a large accumulator bet of teams picked out with the same strategy. What are the odds the stars will align one day. It's definitely not lottery levels. Like if you play $1 each day for one year on a 20 game accumulator with teams picked on shallow stats like recent three games or recent goal average what are the odds of it ever hitting. How would you calculate a probability of something like this?

I was wondering what others betting strategies were to adjust my own. Thank you for your responses!

1. How many race tracks do you bet on your betting days?
2. How many races do you bet?
3. Do you ever change your base wager/ do you have a base wager (Y/N)?
4. Do you have a profit target (Y/N)?
5. What types of bets do you usually bet?
6. Do you have any rules that you will never break?
7. Anything that is relevant?

The main reason why Martingale strategy doesn't work is because there is a bet limit and you don't have infinite money.

But say that there are no limits and you have as much money, and you play a game that gives the house 1% edge.

Does this strategy work?

If so, does it matter if the odds are worse for me? Say I play a game that can triple my money, but I have a 33.33% chance of winning.

hey how's it going? I've been doing this for a little bit now, I've hit some nice races over past few months but also missed a lot of good payouts too.

I'm curious as to what kind of strategy others use when betting?

myself, I have gone back and forth with these. little costly but I feel like I have a better shot at winning doing it this way.

I'll usually do an exacta where it's the favorite in 2nd with ALL in first. works out more than I expect and i like it. I usually refrain from boxing it unless it's a long shot, I'd rather spend a little less and do it for 2 dollars then box for only a dollar.

trifecta wise I've been doing favorite in 2nd and 3rd with ALL ALL. Or I'll do a key box with all and two favorites. I'm hoping to just get a long shot in there in that situation when I do the key box. the favorite in 2nd and 3rd is a more preferred one because I've done pretty well at times. problem is I'm only doing it for 50 cents, if the race is a short field then I'll go dollar. I've left a lot of money on table due to the 50 cent bet, but it's cheaper obviously and gives me ammo to keep playing if I have a few losses.

I guess I'm just trying to get an idea at what others do

some sites I use that I like are e-ponies, rosnet and it's spot plays, and racing dudes. I really like the racingdudes site, their free picks are pretty good and sometimes those long shots they put in will work out, not always but that's the game and you can't expect it to always work obviously.

thanks for reading. good luck with your bets today.

I would assume it’s just pass line with max odds, but what about also doing a come bet or placing 6/8? Can you take odds on a come bet? Thanks

I decided to join this group yesterday to follow some of the discussion and see how my betting processes compare to others. I have been seriously betting for about 1.5 years now and have done well and been profitable in the NFL and NBA (the two sports I focus on). While I don't bet a lot of money on each play, I've been able to stay profitable and grow my confidence as I slowly increase my wager size. I wanted to share some of the philosophies I have learned or developed to see what you guys think on these!

1) Matchups vs Value vs Situations

In my mind there's three ways to look at handicapping games. Some people look deep at box scores and a team's anatomy to determine what advantage they have over another team based on matchups (ex. Team A has a banged up O-Line and Team B ranks 4th in QB pressures, so I will bet on Team B). This is probably the style I do the least with. Another way is to simply look at the value of the bet. Consider trends/angles that back the math behind a play and to focus on beating the closing line. This is key in all sports, but I find it especially important in sports like the NBA where there are games every night (ex. the Celtics are -6 against the Rockets but opened -3 -- ask yourself: "why do I like the Celtics at -6 when I could have had them at -3?). Finally, my favorite is situational handicapping. I love to consider how a team might play after an emotional, comeback win or a heartbreaking loss. I'll look at the schedule to see if this game is a sandwich spot or if the team might play "hard" for a particular reason (the team's coach called them out during the weak).

2) Overreactions and the Injured Player Theory

This is one of my favorite angles to look at when betting the NBA and NFL (especially the NBA). How often do you see a star player ruled out and then that team he plays for end up winning easily? It happens just about every night in the NBA. Same for the NFL. The injured player theory says to take a team the first game in which a star player is not playing, and then look to fade them in subsequent games. The thought is that a team plays hard knowing they'll be without one of their leaders. Maybe the coach will change up play calling and catch the other team off guard. Basically, it's showing that for a single game, that player's absence doesn't affect the team nearly as much as you might think it does. But over a long sample size, a team will of course be worse without one of their b

Hi everyone.

I was just wondering what people use as common bet practices. I have been making several small bets a day and not really seeing a profit as a lot of wins cancel out losses.

Is one bet at a higher risk amount more advantageous than 7 small bets? I have prefer straight bets. I just started this NFL season and was wondering what others do.

Edit - to post text.

What's your go to play? Flex or Power play? 2,3,4,5 player? So far I've hit 2, 4 player flex plays, kinda wishing I had played power play but a win is a win

Only Bet on Sports You Follow

Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart

Win/Loss Streaks are Meaningless, Trust Stats Over Trends

Place All Bets in Equal Units 안전놀이터

Only Bet on the Matches You’re Most Confident In

Be Aware of (but Never Succumb to) the “Gambler’s Fallacy”

Keep Your Expectations in Realistic Focus

Arbitrage is Real – Shop the Lines!

Pay Attention to Sharp Money Line Moves

Don’t Pay Handicappers (Research Them Heavily if You Do)

Sorry I know this is a really confusing question and I’m also sorry if this is a well known thing that I’m just not we’ll versed in.

So basically what I’m asking is are their any strategies where you could set it up to profit off of a certain % gain in either direction?

Like say for a upcoming catalyst I am almost certain that the stock will rise or fall 7% that day. Is their a way I can bet on the % or anything similar that you know of?

1 - Avoid handsets, bet in singles!

Making an arm-length combination is the most common mistake newbie bettors make. We've all been there.

By betting in combination with a multitude of so-called “Safe” odds you exponentially decrease your probability of winning in sports betting.

With experience, you will learn that no sports bet is safe and that most of your handsets will lose out in the long run! This is why it makes much more sense to carefully select a single prognosis when working seriously on your analysis.

2 - Adopt a strict money management strategy

Many beginners have no strategy for managing their bankroll. They bet in an anarchic way without any rigor.

We have written an article dedicated to all the ways to bet in sports betting, it's up to you to choose the strategy that best suits you. If you are not sure which one to choose, we recommend that you never exceed a bet of around 5% of your bankroll. This allows you to always be comfortable with your bets and to keep your cool.

3 - Don't bet on anything and everything!

When you start sports betting, you bet on everything that moves. The problem is not necessarily betting on several sports, but above all betting without having any knowledge of the ins and outs of a sporting event!

4 - Search for value bet in your sports bets!

When selecting a prognosis, always ask yourself how valuable it is. Make a simple calculation between the value of the odds, which translates the bookie's probability of the event happening, and the probability you give it.

The notion of value bet is essential for success in sports betting. When you understand this you will become a better bettor.

This will require you to refine your analysis allowing you to get the most out of a sporting event.

Read more HERE