I am tired of fighting.
Our chiefs are killed.
Looking Glass is dead.
Toohulhulsote is dead.
The old men are all dead.
It is the young men who say no and yes. He who led the young men is dead.
It is cold and we have no blankets.
The little children are freezing to death.
My people, some of them, have run away to the hills and have no
blankets, no food.
No one knows where they are.
Perhaps they are freezing to death.
I want to have time to look for my children and see how many of
them I can find.
Maybe I shall find them among the dead.
Hear me, my chiefs, I am tired.
My heart is sad and sick.
From where the sun now stands,
I will fight no more forever.
I saw some guys put bear oaw tatto on their bodies, like chest, ass and places like that. Do you guys find it hot?
>"It's good to be a bull during a bull market, but nothing compares to being a bear during a bear market" — Warren Buffett
Greetings, honorable WSB citizens. I've been playing with SPY and indexes recently, and it led me to formulate an interesting outlook on the current state of the market. I am really curious about what noble WSB gentlemen have to say on all these findings, so feel welcomed to engage in the discussion upon reading the post.
Compulsory, this is not a financial advice, and I am not an advisor - more than that, I am almost confident that I don't even know what I'm doing.
P.S. Commenting "Stonks only go up" as a counter-thesis is perma 🌈🐃
I. The Abstract
The main purpose of this work is to provide a technical counter-thesis to the current market craze, and to spark a constructive discussion. As it was mentioned in the post title, the tools that were used for creating this TA on SPY include: market cycles analysis, for setting a suitable framework; Elliot waves theory as a method of ordering major market movements; Fibonacci retracement for identifying the key, magnetic support and resistance levels; and a sweet 150 moving average to predict the potential bottom of the bear market. These tools will also be given a deeper explanation in the beginning of the discussion, for a bigger circle of WSB participants to wrap their brains around the technical factors at play. If you consider yourself to be a trader with sufficient technical knowledge and skills, feel free to skip the part II. The third part will be focused on the technical data accumulation, based on the historical examples from different time periods, and for different markets types. Part IV is the juiciest, as it incorporates the thesis formation through the application of all the data accumulated in the process of the analysis. V is a bonus part. Without further ado, let's get started.
II. The Technical Core
- Market Cycles
[S&P 500 example is used to illustrate market cycles: orange rectangle highlights accumulation phase, blue - mark-up, turquoise - distribution, and red stands for the mark-down](https://preview.redd.it/8hqda630diu61.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0c94fecc97785e480b47ef1a6a3644
... keep reading on reddit ➡
