Buffett/3G Capital/PSTH Speculation - Plaid/Stripe

I made an earlier post here today - I suspect we will be in the dark until Feb 17, so here's some info to help until we make lots of money. This post is long and speculative - it's weeks of thinking and many hours of research. Let me know what y'all think.

To preface this post - I suspect in a few weeks, we will start to see articles like the following: Link

Background

PSTH is playing out very similarly to the QSR (Restaurant Brands International) merger from 2014. Here's a quick summary for you:

  • 3G Capital (Alex Behring and Jorge Paulo Lemann) bought a controlling stake in Burger King in 2010
    • Alex Behring graduated with Bill Ackman from Harvard's MBA program in 1995.
    • Jorge Paulo Lemann is close friends with Warren Buffett. They are both heavily invested in Kraft/Heinz.
    • 3G Capital is a Brazilian/American fund
  • In 2014, Ackman coordinated a deal for 3G Capital to buy Tim Horton's. This created Restaurant Brands International (QSR). 3G Capital through Burger King put forth $9b and Warren Buffett provided a $3b pipe.
    • This was likely coordinated through Ackman/Behring's friendship from school partnered with Lemann's friendship with Buffett.

This merger between Burger King and Tim Horton's was a wild success. All parties benefited greatly and saw massive returns.

Then and Now

PSTH now enters the picture, but the only remaining player is Bill Ackman (and the analysts on PSTH - many are the same as the BK merger). Bill has created the largest SPAC in the history of SPACs with a investor friendly structure that indicates long hold positions - let's speculate!

On the previous PSH Investor call, Bill mentioned the following:

>And you can now see a 13F list of our investors. You can form your own view on the ones that have to file 13Fs, but there are many extraordinary investors that don’t file 13Fs, including sovereign wealth funds that own less than 5% of PSTH and the large number in the dozens of family offices globally kind of billionaire family offices that have -- that bought stakes in the IPO and we think this shareholder list will be -- and is actually will be an asset for us in finding a potential target.

As many of you have noted in this subreddit - this was t

... keep reading on reddit ➑

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πŸ‘€︎ u/willowpiper3
πŸ“…︎ Feb 10 2021
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Kraft Heinz Insiders Reveal 3G Capital-Inspired Budget Cuts businessinsider.com/kraft…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/bevmoon
πŸ“…︎ Jul 14 2021
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Kraft Heinz falls after second-largest shareholder 3G Capital sells more than 25 million shares

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/kraft-heinz-falls-after-second-largest-shareholder-3g-capital-sells-more-than-25-million-shares.html

Private equity firm 3G Capital Partners, the Brazilian private equity giant founded by Jorge Paulo Lemann, disclosed that it sold 25.1 million shares at a price of $28.44.

The stock cratered nearly 25% in February after Kraft Heinz wrote down $15.4 billion on two of its most iconic brands, Kraft and Oscar Mayer.

The private equity firm is the company’s second largest shareholder after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

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πŸ‘€︎ u/coolcomfort123
πŸ“…︎ Sep 17 2019
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3G Capital buys stakes in Fastly, Zoom, while sheds Alibaba, Facebook

Interesting to see 3G bailing on Alibaba and Facebook. I know they have a dicey track record but wondered what everyone’s thoughts were. I wonder if their 85 price point means big players are optimistic about Fastly despite the uncertainty with Tik Tok.

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πŸ‘€︎ u/TADthePaperMaker
πŸ“…︎ Aug 15 2020
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Based on that 20 percent decline in shares of Kraft Heinz, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.a) would see one of its largest investments drop about $3.3 billion in value. Buffett's Berkshire and Brazil's 3G Capital control Kraft Heinz. (Reuters)
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πŸ‘€︎ u/markyu007
πŸ“…︎ Feb 22 2019
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3G Capital discovers the limits of cost-cutting and debt economist.com/leaders/201…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/lingben
πŸ“…︎ Mar 03 2019
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How sweet is the return? Pavel Begun (3G Capital Management) on the Turkish Ulker Biskuvi youtube.com/watch?v=EoZ3Q…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/valueDACH
πŸ“…︎ Jan 28 2020
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3G Capital is on a deal making roll - Parent company of Tim Hortons to buy Popeyes for $1.8B

http://www.cp24.com/news/parent-company-of-tim-hortons-to-buy-popeyes-for-1-8b-1.3294443

"The parent company of Tim Hortons and Burger King says it will pay $1.8 billion cash to buy the Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen chain in a friendly deal. Restaurant Brands International says it will pay $79 per share of Popeyes."

Edited (as promised with additional links adding more info):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-21/burger-king-owner-to-buy-popeyes-chicken-chain-for-1-8-billion
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/21/restaurant-brands-in-deal-to-acquire-popeyes-louisiana-kitchen.html

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πŸ‘€︎ u/pscoutou
πŸ“…︎ Feb 21 2017
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3g Capital detailed case study

About a year ago, someone posted a really extensive case study on this sub about 3g and their acquisition of Kraft Heinz as well as their famous cost-cutting business strategy. Long shot, but does anyone know where I can find that paper?

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πŸ‘€︎ u/sharkykid
πŸ“…︎ Mar 11 2018
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Berkshire Hathaway and 3G capital are buying HJ Heinz (HNZ) in $28 billion deal.

Shares are up 21% in premarket. Great day to be a shareholder http://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-3g-capital-to-buy-heinz-in-28b-deal-2013-02-14?dist=beforebell

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πŸ‘€︎ u/KnuckleSalad
πŸ“…︎ Feb 14 2013
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3G Capital will make fat disappear at Tim Hortons business.financialpost.co…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/k_garp
πŸ“…︎ Aug 27 2014
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Buyout firm 3G Capital managed to build a consumer empire with a market value of over $140 billion in just seven years. Yet its ruthless approach to costs may end up hampering 3G-backed Kraft Heinz Co's (KHC.O) $143 billion bid for Unilever Plc (ULVR.L) reuters.com/article/us-un…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/dragonbeasto
πŸ“…︎ Feb 18 2017
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How 3G Capital and a $50B buyout turned Kraft Heinz upside down

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/how-3g-capital-and-a-50b-buyout-turned-kraft-heinz-upside-down

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πŸ‘€︎ u/eucalyptusmonk
πŸ“…︎ Jul 20 2019
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