As much as I'd love all these signals to be FUD, the truth is, it's not. Even the Crypto market dipping for the two months is largely due to the stock market trending down along with energy prices all over the world. People can say what they want, but the FED has printed way too much money over the past 18 months. You cannot raise the supply of the USD by 50% and expect no consequences.

Buffet's Indicator

Buffet Indicator: Anything Above 140% is \"Extreme Danger\"

The way the stock market is booming right now is nothing less than abnormal. The S&P500 alone is 100% higher than what it was in March 2020 while actual productivity has shrunk with people leaving jobs faster than ever. Moreover, the housing market booming makes zero sense. Houses continue to skyrocket in value faster than the already high inflation rate can keep up.

Companies are also being overvalued by hundreds of times if you compare their profits to the stock market. If you look at Tesla, it is often the most used example of an overvalued company, and even then it pales to some of the most overvalued companies in the market right now.

Prof. Dr. Robert Shiller's Bubble Checklist Made in 2010.

1. Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or shares ☑

2. Great public excitement about said increases ☑

3. An accompanying media frenzy ☑

4. Stories of people earning much money, causing envy among people who are not ☑

5. Growing interest in asset class among the general public ☑

6. ”New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases ☑

7. A decline in lending standards ☑

The Illusion of Prosperity

Every hyperinflationary event is always followed by a fake illusion of prosperity. We've seen this happen with the Weimar Republic, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Lebanon. For example, in the months following hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic, people were becoming wealthier in the millions despite coming out of a war just months earlier. The market was doing so good that it was called the "Golden Twenties" in Germany.

However, as the hyperinflation got closer, "The citizenry saw prices going up due to shortages — and as more currency was produced to pay ever-rising union wages — buying activity became a frenzy." This is very similar to the worker, logistics and countle

I recently published my portfolio for 2022, and caught some grief for having 27% of my money allocated for cash, cash equivalents, and bonds. Heck, I'm 58, so that was pretty appropriate.

But something occurred to me, I am willing to bet many of you barely remember 2008, probably don't remember 2000-2002, and weren't even alive for 1987. If you are insisting on a 100% all-equity portfolio, feel free. But, the question is whether you have a plan when the market takes a 50% toilet dump? What will you do? Did you reserve some cash to respond? Do you have any rebalancing options?

Never judge a crusty veteran, when you have never fought a war.

So US Government decides to increase yield on bonds , reduce reckless money printing and a bunch of other decisions that will eventually make stock investors move a lot of their money from stocks to bonds. Basically stocks become kind of a risky and uncertain assets while bonds become the opposite, safe haven, almost zero risk and guaranteed yield. That will eventually crash stocks/sp500 and so on. Understandably this means all huge institutional investors will take their money out of BTC. At best we are expecting another 2-3 to 4 year bear market before markets start to recover. BTC may as well go 10k under easily and stay there for a long time.

On the other hand Jeff Booth and Greg Floss may say that government can reduce money printing and improve bonds yields but that's just temporary and eventually they will have to start printing lots of money again to avoid stock markets to crash because nobody wants that. Also they may say inflation is going to get worse and worse due to the money printing and the best bet against inflation is Bitcoin.

But my opinion is that Bitcoin is not dependant on reddit users/bitcoin forums/youtube gurus etc. It's dependant on the big money! And big money is controlled mostly by people who consider BTC a very risky asset! (of course with the exceptions of Saylor, Cathie Wood and the early BTC Whales who have diamond hands for lifetime)

So I'm thinking who exactly is going to put a lot of money in Bitcoin in a market crisis where stock are going down by 50% and more in a couple of weeks/months. Who is going to risk it? Also is US Government really able to prevent another mega stock market crash? Nasdaq Composite Index is currently at all time highs up around 600% from 2010!

Let's discuss this topic until we figure out every possible scenario!

My thesis has several layers which provides a margin of safety ;

1. Fed policy: Currently the fed is tapering and has said that if inflation persist they may increase the speed they taper. If you look at history every single time the fed tapered the market corrects (20+%). The same can be said when they Fed announces they are increasing QE, the market reverses a downtrend and continues on a bull run. This has proven to be 100% accurate in the US. The market is forward looking and sees this coming, IMO the market has already topped. Of course the Fed could reverse there decision and decide to continue QE for longer, if this occurs I will cover my short.
2. Stocks under pressure: ARKK ETF and the vast majority of speculative stocks are down 50-70%, these are the first to be hit when we extend to the end of a bull run, and the stock market participants are looking for a safe, cash flowing companies to ride into the end, that is essentially a flight to safety in anticipation of tapering and an increase in the funds rate.
3. Fed announced Taper: On November 3rd the fed announced the taper, since then we've seen stocks get smashed on any miss earnings and just the way the market is reacting to news has drastically changed. Most recent example is the new C19 variant, any potential bad news the market is no longer just brushing off, participants are confused and see the market as being irrational for no reason, where in fact the real reason is because of the TAPER. We will continue to see large draw downs on any negative news.
4. Valuation: The FAANG stocks is holding up this market, as they are seen as the safest and best companies the world. This has pushed there valuations to ALL time highs. MSFT is trading at a 37 PE and 14 PS, not seen since the Dot Com bubble. Normal MSFT or AAPL trade at a PE of 12-18 and that was during the last decade where they had a massive run rate of growth ahead of them.
5. Shift to small cap from large cap?: I have thought about the possibility of a shift away from large cap, allowing them to correct while small cap coming back into favour, keep the market propped up, however EVERY SINGLE time MSFT has corrected or crashed the market does the same. So unless this is the first time we ever see this happen, It just isn't probable.
6. Forward guidance: AAPLE is only expected to grow at 4% in 2022, and MSFT 15ish%. Demand has been pulled forward and we are going to see a reset in their valuations based on forward looking guidance, cur

I would think if people have less money, they are less likely to buy RE. But maybe it’s more nuanced than that.

This week so far and last feels like GME is wanting to explode. To me it looks like there are huge stock AND creeepto sell offs to short the living fuck out of GME because the short fucks know an announcement is eminent. There’s been insane volume on open every day to tank the price. They are desperate. The buy to sell ratios are fucking nuts ( I know its quantity of buys to sells and not shares but still). Are they selling off to make it look like the entire market is tanking? Are they selling off just to tank GME? The end is near I feel it in my bones. Apes hold on to your underwear. DRS your tits off if you still got ‘em. I’ll cya in the next galaxy soon enough.

I love watching how the broad stock market reacts to global news. It's incredible speed built upon the best brains working out the most likely outcomes in the fastest possible time is sometimes breathtaking to behold.

For instance, that the market boomed out of the COVID crash as early as March 23rd 2020 whilst we were all basically still shitting ourselves is quite something.

In 20 years of watching, I've only ever felt like I might know better than the market once. That was going into the COVID crash. I didn't sell a penny of my stocks, but there was definitely a period of time, more than a week, in early February 2020 when it became very apparent that this wasn't going to be another (from an investing point of view) 'minor' drammed up SARS and something quite serious and yet the market was just plateauing along sideways.

I know I'm not imagining it because I participate in a random forum where others had decided to sell up on the news. I didn't because I felt timing the market was a mugs game, and I'm glad I didn't as I wouldn't have got back in in time.

Some extra detail. The market first crashed on February 20th, by which point the diamond princess saga was well underway, there were a plethora of cases across Asia, and already 2 deaths in the USA.

Does anyone else recall feeling the same at the time?

Did you sell up?

Do you fancy BS'ing us all that you both got out and back in by March 23rd?

Or am I being captain hindsight? Was it not obvious at all?

0. Preface

I'll probably get crucified for the title. Screw it. Worth a shot.

Hello apes. I am not a financial advisor and I do not provide financial advice.

There is a lot of divisiveness around direct registration. Yes, of course, do your own research. Yes, there are some concerns about the ability to sell at high amounts (>$1M), which you'd want to wager when determining if direct registering is right for you.

But for the sake of this post, toss out those negatives for a moment and read this objectively from the standpoint of how direct registration fundamentally changes the game. And in turn, why you should not get caught up in the hopium theories that the MOASS will just "happen" because of buy and hold or a market crash.

This is not a call to action. This is my opinion which is backed by the mechanics of direct registration.

And as boiler plate, if you do not register your shares, that is completely OK. Don't feel pressured by it. I'm mostly posting and commenting because it's just very frustrating how such an overwhelmingly positive concept is getting shut down and brushed off as if it won't do anything.

Unlike all of the failed price prediction posts in the past (mine included), it's very clear of what the mechanics are for Direct Registration and how it pulls shares from the DTC. It reduces their ability to infinitely rehypothecate shares and can-kick for pennies worth (0.9% borrow fee right now).

That is why direct registration is getting so much support. It's not a loosely-connected theory for price predictions but rather very solid and set in stone.

This is going to be more of a general post. If you'd like to see more detail on DRS, DSP, direct registration, and Computershare, take a look at my other posts or peruse the ones located on the GME subreddits. I can't link them directly because of brigading rules. And then fact check them yourselves. Please do your own research after this. Don't purely listen to me. Don't purely listen to someone on Twitter. Don't purely listen to someone on YouTube.

1. Direct Registration effects on DTC-owned float.

One of the main resources you should start looking at in regards to direct registration is Computershare's FAQ page that they just updated not too long ago. It goes into decent detail as to how the direct registration process works, a

I know the title sentence does not make any sense; neither does the reasoning for the impending market crash. I used a past tense to describe a future event... Well, here is a theory; maybe conspiracy-ish. We have seen the devastating effects of COVID on the world economy, from international to the local neighborhoods. We all 'mask up' when we go out to do our normal lives. We all want things to go back to something less restrictive, NOT THE SAME AS BEFORE!

So, you have seen the MSM spin the COVID outbreak, mask mandates, and supply shortages. When the talking heads start agitating up the Boomers, the shelves go empty and it becomes a mess. Whatever news, no matter how insignificant, gets coverage from every angle and the experts come out of the woodwork. First it was COVID-19, then it was toilet paper (Why???), then the Delta variant, and now it is the Omicron variant. Oh, and it is deadlier than all others combined. Now before you tell me to put on my tin foil hat, I whole-heartedly support science. I got my first shot when it was available in December and the second shot right on time in January. I wear a mask everywhere, even though it is not required. Not just for me, but for everyone around me. Geez, just wear a freaking mask. It is not that hard to do.

Here is what I jokingly predict will happen tomorrow and through the next week. Omicron variant will first be found in Atlanta or Los Angeles, detected as a possible international flyer who had contact with someone from the known Omicron hotspots. MSM will eat it up, blast it for the Boomer feedback loop, and stoke fear in our very foundations of humanity.

First we have where new cases of these variants have been seen. The Delta variant was first seen in Texas. Big state, lots of Boomers, no one is going to wear a mask (because it's unconstitutional). So it spreads. We have been listening to the MSM feedback loop for the Delta variant since May 2020 (https://www.newsweek.com/first-us-covid-delta-variant-cases-how-did-it-mutate-1617871). Yes, it has been over a year and a half.

Next we have the supply issues. Never mind the questionable efforts of Louis DeJoy on the U.S. Postal Service. That not-so-good-intended person has hindered an American Institution from its otherwise heroic mission. The U.S.P.S could have been the savior we needed to keep morale up; but I digress. The world supply chain was already taxed with none other than frivolous taxes. At a time when people were relegated to their h

I was just listening to a podcast with an investment advisor who said that he and his clients are all long equities and they have stop loss orders placed in case of a crash. As the market goes up they raise their stop price.

However, I was wondering how this would work if the market is closed, or if the circuit breakers kick in, and when the market re-opens the prices are all well below their limit/stop price.

For example, lets say the Dow closes at 36,000 and some terrible news event occurs overnight there might be no way people would be able to exit their positions at 36,000. They wlll have to sell after the market opens right? And the market wil open much lower than 36,000.

Also, if word gets out that certain investors were able to sell, while retail investors were unable to get their orders filled this could lead to a full scale revolt.

Is this concern legitimate, or are their controls in place to prevent retail investors from getting hosed while the well connected all exit their long positions?

This is a great documentary about the Stock Market crash of 1929. It is incredible that what we see happening right in front of our eyes in our current market are exactly the same events that took place 92 years ago. Though President Franklin Roosevelt set up government oversight to regulate the stock market in order to prevent another crash like the one of 1929, those rules and regulation have been consistently whittled away to the point where a repeat of the mistakes that led to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 are now firmly in place.

"The lessons from the crash of 1929 are that history repeats itself, that human folly and greed are much stronger forces in financial affairs than reason and restraint."

1929 Stock Market Crash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSxPouPCIM

Apes Together Strong!

Crypto is crashing because there's nfts it's also crashing because rates going up and qe2 eliminated. There's no more stimulus either that's what fed this market we're into winter after Christmas things slow in the retail traders need money to pay their bills

Just some friendly casual talk.

I’ve been doing some research mainly looking at historical stock market crashs and personally I think it’s been a long time coming.

I’ve know for a while that the fed has been slowing inflation down for months now just by reading the tags at stores and comparing them, but also—what they hell we’ve printed almost 9 trillion dollars compared to 2-3 trillion in previous years.

I think a lot of characteristics of our current market are similar to the dotcom bubble along with the housing crash in 2008. The price of houses have been appreciating but people can’t afford their rents and mortgages. We have new companies being hella over evaluated without proving their worth (cryptos, nfts, hate to say it but also small businesses). People believing the market is going to stay up forever or that we’re still in a bull market, and this peak we’re at is insane (tho we’re always peaking).

I don’t trust the big dogs but even some of them are taking their money out of the market now for safer options like gold, silver, and etfs.

I’m not a trader, just a casual investor (BB, VNQ, VOO mainly with some speculative stocks) so I don’t think I’ll be as effected but I just think it’s interesting that people don’t want to give it thought when it’s giving heavy “if it quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, and walks like a duck” vibes.

This journey began for me with a random conversation. I was at a grocery store on my break from work and while I was looking at different Greek yogurts, I overheard a man say something I couldn’t believe. I turned around and said “Sir… I’m sorry, what did you just say?” He introduced himself as the owner of the grocery store (locally owned in St.Pete/Clearwater FL area) the gentlemen proceeded to tell me that last year he paid around $4,000 for a crate of food…he said one year later, that same EXACT CRATE IS NOW $14,000. This conversation was just 3 weeks ago.

So…when I got into my car I had an idea. I wonder what the U.S. Dollar index is trading at…I’m sure it’s bloody red (I assumed) what I saw literally made my jaw drop. I’m not joking…at that time the U.S. dollar happened to be at a 9 month high. I couldn’t fucking believe it. At that moment I knew…we had fucked up. https://imgur.com/a/tBVu4f1

After already doing mini DD on why the U.S. dollar might fall just days before (just watching random videos on YouTube about Dr. Burry and stock shit)

I immediately opened a position in my car to profit from this current situation. Which was call options in $TBT. An ETF with 2x inverse exposure on 20+ U.S Treasury bonds. In simple terms, this is a bet on hyperinflation. I believe that the Federal Reserve WILL BE FORCED to raise rates (as that is their main tool in their toolkit to fight inflation) faster than ANYONE is anticipating. Which in turn would collapse bond prices. Making the calls print. I currently have a small position right now.

The dollar index after J. POW’s Jackson Hole Speech. 😂 https://imgur.com/a/hiN5OFy

Now this brings me to the U.S. stock market. I sold all my stocks 2 days ago. I have long exposure in only one position currently. A $50/$80 call debit spread in VIAC. Simply put, if I’m wrong and the market just keeps going, then the $350 I paid for spread will generate nearly $3,000 if VIAC is over $80 on expiration, which is in 2 years.

              Technical Analysis

Let me start with my TA first…which is alarming. https://imgur.com/a/kmLCxPX

This was yesterday, Friday, September 3.

Here is one from Thursday, September 2.

https://imgur.com/a/PE0F6F5

$SPY is at a critical resistance level…I mean…it literally is hitting the fucking roof here… and with everything going on in the world…you want more?!?? Sorry to burst your bubble…but how was that even theoretically feasible? It’s impossible in my opinion.

I’m guessing he’ll do both half way and crash the market and have high inflation.

Since he‘s screwed everything else up I figure he’ll screw this up too.

I consider myself new to crypto. I invested in XRP back in 2017 and never looked back. I ask this question because most crypto that people are looking to make money on is tied to the fiat currency. For the more experienced users here, how much would this market be affected by a recession or a stock market crash?

Dears,

I have currently around 150.000 EUR that became available for investing. I intend to buy VWCE via Degiro broker, but I'm doubting very much if it's the right moment now, seen the current top positions of the stock markets. I know it's the philosophy of FIRE to not look short time and invest only with the long horizon in mind, but I'm wondering if it's now really the right moment to invest, if a big crash such as 1929 or financial crisis in 2008/2009 might happen very soon. Especially an article on Businessam.be (https://businessam.be/loert-de-grootste-beurscrash-ooit-om-de-hoek-volgens-deze-4-indicatoren-wel/ ) worried me. What do you think?

How could an investor benefit from that?

You could buy the dip, but with what? And how? Wouldn’t all the banks and brokerages close their doors temporarily if not permanently?

Even if you squirreled away a bunch of cash under your mattress, would that money have any value? And where would you buy those dips?

I’m not saying I think this will actually happen, but I’m the type of guy that likes to have a plan for all contingencies.

The crypto market bleeding all in red right now seemingly for no reason for the past couple of weeks, with BTC dropping about 27% from $65K to the current $47K and ETH dropping about 19% from $4.7 to the current $3.8k. It's painful seeing our crypto portfolio's value bleed and it's tempting to sell out. It seems like with Christmas approaching, the price is falling.

This crash/correction reminds me a lot of the stock market crash of December 2018, where the S&P500 index (the weighted average of the top 500 US stocks) plunged about 15% and the MSCI world index dropped about 24% for seemingly no reason when Christmas is approaching just like the crypto market. That crash was particularly painful for me as I was out of cash and was forced to sell my shares at a loss to get by just to see stock price bounce back up soon after; since then I made sure I have a stash of emergency cash as to not go through that pain again.

There was no one big catalyst that caused the stock market to fall in December 2018, but looks like a combination small factors like Trump's trade war with China (I miss Trump's twitter lmao) and rising interest rate. My personal theory is that people are selling stocks for the upcoming Christmas holiday, which caused a price drop, which leads to even more selling as people were panicking especially since Christmas is coming, creating a feedback loop.

The good news is that the stock market quickly bounced quickly afterwards after in early 2019. Interestingly during that time crypto followed a similar trajectory, although the recovery was slower.

What this means for the current crypto market is that if history is any indication, as long there's no catastrophic reason for the prices to crash, the prices will eventual recover. Meanwhile, just sit back, enjoy the show and the heavy discounts.