I want to talk to the sub a little about Technology Readiness Levels. NASA has a great system that they use that can be applicable to just about any technology. I see commentary on the sub all the time when a new article comes out to the effect of "X discovered in lab" or "Y successful in initial test" and the comment is something derogatory like "Call me when this is in production" or "$10,000 per lb in the lab? That will never work" I'm sure youve seen them. Using TRL's can help us understand what questions we should be asking, rather than making irrelevant comments about expense or manufacturability at the wrong level. So lets go through the levels and talk about the questions we should be asking.
TRL 0: Science Fiction
Criteria: No mathematical formulation or physics exists that says that this is possible. This can also mean that there is no mathematics that says it doesnt exist either
Examples: Negative Matter, Harry Potter Magic
Questions you should be asking: What Math or physics shows that this is possible?
TRL 1: Science Fact
Criteria: Math and physics that affirmatively show that the technology is possible and offer some basic tests that could be used to prove or disprove the physics
Examples: Aclubierre/White warp drive, Portals/Wormholes
Questions you shold be asking: What discoveries are preventing the test needed to do this in a lab? What tests do we need to do to prove/disprove that this is possible? What is the current state of that testing?
TRL 2: Lab State
Criteria: Laboratory or observational experiments have been performed to prove at the most basic level that the technology/material exists. No production of tech other than for lab use/experiments exists
Examples: Antimatter, DNA data storage, Many Medical treatments
Questions: What does a prototype production system look like? Does this work the same when its not in a lab?
TRL3: Prototype production
Criteria: Tech still in the lab typically but more production/funds is needed to support futher experiments or a desire to move to the next phase
Questions: How much does this cost to produce at scale? What economies of scale are there? Is there a market at the one off production price? What hurdles are there to production at scale? Are there VC or government sources for funding?
Examples: New battery tech, Fusion/ITER, Starship 2020/2021
Questions:
TRL 4: Startup
... keep reading on reddit ➡Hi guys! Me and my project are facing a aerospace project, we have to do a TRL analysis of some technology, and we are having some trouble, we can't find the information, can you help me with some source or links where we can find information?
[edit]The goal of this list is to better understand the probability that SpaceXs first attempt to develop the ITS will be successful. To that end I tried to determine the maximum available TRL of any given technology that is required for the ITS. Then I assigned the probability of successful development using this chart:
[edit][edit]I've switched to API 17N Technology readiness levels, some engineers don't like the way I am interpreting NASA technology readiness levels.
| Development Level | Description | Probability of success | Approx. NASA TRL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | concept | 10% | 1-2 |
| 1 | concept physically tested | 50% | 3 |
| 2 | necessary technologies physically tested | 75% | 4-5 |
| 3 | necessary technologies combined into working prototype | 90% | 6-7 |
| 4 | production hardware developed and tested | 95% | 8 |
| 5 | production hardware operational | 100% | 9 |
Note The probability of success is not the same as development work remaining. When I give in-orbit refueling a 90%, I am saying there is a 90% chance that SpaceX will be able to make it work with a reasonable amount of development time and money. I am not saying development on SpaceX's in-orbit refueling system is 90% complete. As far as I know SpaceX hasn't even started development on it.
The probability of successful development is all the columns multiplied together. That results in the following total probability of success:
| Overall Technology | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITS | 73% |
| Mars Mission | 44% |
| Mars Colonization | 10% |
I made a list of required technologies and their technology readiness levels based on SpaceX's ITS video and Elon Musk's presentation:
NASA TRL: Technology Readiness Level
Probability: Guesstimate of probability of successful first attempt at development based on TRL.
Interplanetary Transit System
| Technology | TRL | Probability | Required For | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat Shields | 5 | 100% | Upper Stage Reuse | SpaceX already makes very advanced heat shields for the Dragon spacecraft. 1 |
| Vertical Landing | 5 | 100% | Reuse in both stages | used by SpaceX on Falcon 9 booster |
| Composite Cryotanks | 3 | 90% | better mass fraction, cheeper manufacturing, longer lifetime | demonstrated by Boeing, NASA and SpaceX. [1](https://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/august/nasa-completes-successful-battery-of-tests-on-composite-cryotank/#.WAQ |
Sussing out where a given technology is on the path to deployment (or even post-deployment) is one of the challenges in following a field with extensive ongoing research and development. That's the idea behind Technology Readiness Level measurments (Wikipedia):
> Technology readiness levels (TRLs) are measures used to assess the maturity of evolving technologies (devices, materials, components, software, work processes, etc.) during their development and in some cases during early operations. Generally speaking, when a new technology is first invented or conceptualized, it is not suitable for immediate application. Instead, new technologies are usually subjected to experimentation, refinement, and increasingly realistic testing. Once the technology is sufficiently proven, it can be incorporated into a system/subsystem.
Unsurprisingly, several standard scales emerge from the military and space sectors, but also notably from the oil and gas industries.
ESA 9-point TRL scale
Fairly typical is a nine-point scale (DoD, NASA, and ESA). I'm presenting the European Space Agency scale for its succinctness and generality:
- Basic principles observed and reported
- Technology concept and/or application formulated
- Analytical & experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept
- Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment
- Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment
- System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment (ground or space)
- System prototype demonstration in a space environment
- Actual system completed and "Flight qualified" through test and demonstration (ground or space)
- Actual system "Flight proven" through successful mission operations
Oil and Gas industry TRL scale
The interesting distinction here isn't the breakpoints but the addition of "proven technology" with a long-term operational record. Note that the official scale starts with an index of 0, reddit's numbering initializes at 1.
-
Unproven idea/proposal. Paper concept. No analysis or testing has been performed
-
Concept demonstrated. Basic functionality demonstrated by analysis, reference to features shared with existing technology or through testing on individual subcomponents/subsystems. Shall show that the technology is likely to meet specified objectives with additional testing
-
**Conc
I just read an article from last year that Taiwan's military is facing shortfalls in personnel due to the phasing out of conscription and transition to an all-volunteer force. How bad are things really? Are they still able to perform their role of defending their island from any potential attack by the PRC at this point?
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Check out the rough draft of the document here:
The former captain wrote daily updates to the ships log. The current owners of the ship(The Party) are looking for the journal. I'm stalling for time by saying that it's not on the ship, but they'll find out who has it eventually. If everyone on this sub comments an entry I'll have a huge journal to give them to read over. Mundane and boring, like standard ship routine is great. Crazy adventures is also good. Show me what you got and thanks in advance.
Edit: I'm typing up 5 examples right now.
Examples:
Day 1: Set sail from Port Jewel after repairs. Several new crew members. The short one looks familiar. I'll have to ask Po about the new recruits tomorrow. Cargo: 351lbs of cotton, 6 heavy crossbows, 500lbs rope, 4 barrels of apples
Day 66: Mast snapped in the wind. The wood was rotten on the inside. No way to have known. Charles was crushed. I don't think he'll make it. Cargo: 15 wheels of cheese, 30lbs each, 100lb crate of silk thread, 2000lbs raw iron ingots, 2 passengers (Edith and Jane)
Day (illegible): Kraken retreatee after we blew a tentacle off with a cannon blast. Navigator Zoey overboard with the maps and instruments. No heading in this fog. May Pelor help us all.
Day 8: Fair seas. Cargo: 37 halfling slaves, 500lbs of iron manacles, 4 sets of thumb screws, one tourture rack, throne made of child bones, 10 barrels of poison, 5 barrels of acid, 20 flasks of dragonfire whiskey
Day 9: Threw the cursed thing overboard. Everything is a mess. The crew are cleaning the hold nonstop. The smell is terrible. Cargo: 22 halfling slaves, 500lbs of iron sludge, 5 empty barrels, 9 barrels of poison, 1 flask of dragonfire whiskey, broken torture rack. 4 sets of thumb screws.
https://i.imgur.com/vXcsEYI.png
Technology readiness level wiki page
I think 0 - 2 might be at TRL 9.
I'm not sure where 3 - 5 is.
