Here’s the short version:
Tim Moore is currently the Republican Speaker of the House. As this year’s redistricting began, there was some speculation that he wanted to run for Congress and would use the map-drawing process to create that opportunity for himself.
And that’s what happened. His party drew a congressional map that created a safely Republican, open seat that happened to include his home. They were essentially handing him a congressional seat on a silver platter.
He joked about it and played coy: “I guess it tells me there’s a lot of people here that want to get rid of me for some reason, right? That want to send me somewhere else. I don’t know.”
Rep. Cawthorn’s district changed a little in the redistricting, but not much.
But here’s the thing: The new district drawn for Speaker Moore is overwhelmingly Republican, roughly R+20, meaning the Republican should normally win by about 20 points.
Cawthorn’s district, by comparison, is just R+6. Under the right circumstances, it could flip.
Yesterday, Cawthorn shocked people by announcing he would switch to the new district, the one drawn for Speaker Moore. Cawthorn doesn’t live there, but technically you don’t have to.
For a moment, this created intense speculation about whether Speaker Moore would still run, challenging Cawthorn in a primary.
But word came last night: Speaker Moore would not challenge Cawthorn. He stepped aside.
The reason he stepped aside is that - despite being Speaker for many terms, and despite actually representing the new district for all of that time, he would have almost certainly lost to Cawthorn in a primary. Cawthorn simply has established the type of brand that is heavily preferred among Republican primary voters, and Moore knew it.
Assuming the new maps are upheld in court, Cawthorn is highly likely to be elected in the new district, even though it will now include the western edge of Mecklenburg.
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