Ken Pomeroy has done some research showing that overtime performance is both meaningful and predictive (as in OT play is just as meaningful/predictive as regulation play).
But there really is no thought given to the idea that W-L record in close games is meaningful or predictive... In fact, it's usually a negative in advanced metrics, discounted as "luck". Because normally, it is.
I'd normally be very hesitant to suggest "my" team is an exception to conventional wisdom. But this trend has held for nearly 60 games over the course of ten seasons.
I've been saying this for the past few years: at some point, FSU's performance in close games can no longer be considered a fluke.
There is at least one factor contributing to this remarkable statistic that is (a.) logical, (b.) not attributable to luck, and (c.) not accounted for in advanced metrics:
Depth of rotation.
FSU consistently gives more players meaningful minutes than virtually any program in the nation. Nine Seminoles average 15 minutes per game. As a result, its players are consistently fresher at the ends of games than their opponents, and tend to outlast their opponents physically.
Anyone who watches FSU regularly can probably attest to this occurring on a regular basis.
Year after year, many teams can match or beat FSU's talent in their top 6-8. But very few can match FSU's talent in their top 10-12.
This affects all sports moving forward but especially football since their current HC has won a national championship and played in another. You think recruits will start to look at UCF the same way they look at the other Big 3? You think they could overcome us? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
Florida State improves to 8-2 (7-2 ACC) since being shockingly swept by Pitt at home. That includes 3 ACC series wins vs Virginia, @ Virginia Tech, and @ Miami (all three ranked at the time of the series) and the midweek home victory over Florida.
Additionally, the Seminoles only scored 53 runs in their first 11 games, but have scored 58 runs in their last 5 games.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 0 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 44 |
| Florida State | 14 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 45 |
Made with the /r/CFB Game Thread Generator
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