We know these narratives about "needing Warren" to "combine delegates" are dubious because Bernie's senior adviser, Jeff Weaver recently said the Sanders campaign anticipates winning on the first ballot.
If you haven't read this article on WSJ, I highly recommend it. Weaver lays out the logical path for Bernie. By staying in the race, Bernie prevents anyone from winning a strong plurality.
>Mr Sanders's campaign says his ability to consistently pick up delegates in each state will allow him to win the nomination.
>
>"We anticipate accumulating enough delegates to win on the first round of the convention," said Jeff Weaver, a top adviser to Mr. Sanders who ran his campaign in 2016. "Through the generosity of our grassroots donors, we will have the resources to compete in every state and make the threshold in every state."
>
> Bernie Sanders’s Loyal Voters Could Keep Him in Race for Months
In fact, delegate analysts paying attention know:
- 1. The 15% threshold has built-in winnowing effect
- 2. A brokered convention is extremely rare and highly unlikely
- 3. Bandwagon effect, voters prioritize candidates capable of winning states and delegates
This is a good piece that debunks delegate myths and fear mongering about brokered convention. I recommend reading it: How The 15 Percent Threshold For Primary Delegates Could Winnow The Field
>So no, it’s not likely that more than three candidates surpass the 15 percent threshold statewide in any 2020 primary or caucus: The bar is just too high.
>
>*Ultimately, the 15 percent threshold is actually another way in which the primary field is winnowed. Just look back to when the current 15 percent threshold went into effect in 1992. Sure, there were 12 contests in that cycle where three candidates hit more than 15 percent statewide, but no cycle has come even remotely close to topping that since. In fact, since 1992 there hasn’t been a single cycle where three or more candidates have hit 15 percent statewide in more than a half-dozen contests. That is at least some evidence that the threshold has worked in winnowing the field, and there’s reason to believe it will work again here in 2
Assume that Bernie gets a plurality of votes but not a majority, and the moderate votes added together are greater than his.
The thing is though, you can’t split it so cleanly between progressive vs moderate votes. For most Biden voters, Bernie Sanders is their second choice. People aren’t only voting on ideology it seems, but also personality and vision.
Everyone but Bernie said that the system should be allowed to work itself out rather than just nominating whoever got the plurality, so I find that occurring so easily being unlikely. I heard some Trump supporters say that they might make Hillary the nominee in the brokered convention to unify the party and bring a return to normalcy, but that seems suicidal and conspiratorial, especially when Biden exists.
Do you think Bernie will be able to successfully negotiate to get delegates off of people like Klobuchar? Or will moderates hand their delegates over to whichever moderate has the most delegates currently because of their similar ideology? Or maybe they think a socialist can’t beat Trump? How will this go down?
Edit: a plurality of delegates, not a majority
Please chime in and explain to me precisely what we have to do to get Bernie the Democratic nomination.
This is not a joke or a disingenuos ploy of some kind.
I've been operating short term on Tsunami tactics getting the job done: More money raised, more volunteers, more unique contributors, more Primaries won, etc.
But I think I'm missing the point. Superdelegates can upset the applecart again. Correct? or not?
Some small changes were made to the superdelegate thingy, I know.
But if Bernie doesn't get 51 % of what? the superdelegates at The Convention get to pick their choice.
So, shouldn't we be rooting for as many candidates as possible to drop out or be eliminated? Aren't they all enemies?
I’ve heard it said that someone with say 22% of the delegates in the first round, but still with a plurality, should get the nomination. That doesn’t quite make sense to me. If another candidate gathers an alliance of >50% of the (non super) delegate count after the first round, then doesn’t that delegate’s choice still represent the will of the people? How does the person with 22% of the delegates in the first round, but is unable to gather enough delegates (which are the appointees of the people’s elected representatives chosen to act in exactly this situation) afterwards have the right to the nomination?
I've been following the US primaries as an Australian and it seems to me the brokered convention is a fail-safe means for the dems to elect who they want and ignore the American voters.
Bernie sanders could have 49 percent of public votes and each other runner have 10 percent. They enter the convention and sanders is likely to walk away with 20 percent or something to that effect of super delegates.
The dem party can literally spam candidates to dilute the voting share to guarantee a brokered convention and then manipulate the votes to nominate whoever they want.
Libs LOVE worrying about stuff that doesnt matter.
Heres the reality these people pushing this are largely cowards. If they do this they will all have to vote on the record. If that happens we will make sure that NONE OF THEM gets re-elected...
The other thing is they have NO ONE TO UNITE BEHIND. We do... They are too greedy to ever come together to back one person...
They said the same nonsense when Obama ran... And Gore...
So stay. Focused. Bernie Will win All us Bernie people have to do is campaign, donate and vote.
We need to make it embarrassingly obvious that we want Bernie. And put the pressure on them to try to block him.
If bernie has 50 or 45 states the fCK can the do but cry...
Lets make it happen. Turn off your TV and campaign.
This is how we win...
For a candidate that can be considered, does s/he need a delegate/s? If so, how many? Or does s/he need to be currently running? Can other candidates pick someone who's out of the race like Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, etc?
Are there advantages to having a delegate vs none other than perception?
At the end of the Nevada debate, the candidates were asked whether they'd support someone who had a plurality rather than a majority of delegates at the convention.
Only Sanders said a plurality should win the nomination. Before and after the debate, he's said to not do so would be overturning the will of the voters.
There's an obvious flaw in that argument that no one in the newsmedia has been willing to address, and we should be asking why.
That flaw, is that if a candidate has 40% of delegates, it means 60% chose someone other than that candidate. If overturning the will of voters is truly Bernie's concern, then shouldn't we be more concerned with overturning the will of 60% rather than 40% of voters? Isn't that 60% a blinking red light that the majority of voters will be less likely to vote in the general? And that voting turnout will be depressed?
The Democratic party has a process for this eventuality, and Sanders agreed to it and helped draft it. It should be followed.
Bernie's rise has mostly been on Biden and Warren lowering. Bloomberg, Pete, and Klobuchar are still rising.
538 just shifted their projection to that a brokered convention is the most likely outcome. And I do not trust the DNC to do the right this. They'll do the 'Pete+Amy beats Bernie' bullshit. You already see it in the media.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
And to be honest, it should be viewed as a missed opportunity that we didn't shatter voter turnout records in Iowa and NH. We barely edged out total voter numbers in NH compared to 2008, but with population increases the actual voter % turnout was lower.
Barack was a strong candidate, but I feel that we have several strong candidates, and much more hated opponent and hatred for the status quo. I am Biased, but I think Bernie should elicit a higher turnout than any one that came before him.
There is no reason why turn out records shouldn't be shattering, and if they're not being shattered, we should be analyzing why this is so, so that we can shatter these records in the next primaries.
File this under "Dumbass Democrats" - this guy should have been kicked out of the party regardless of his opinion on Bernie. You can't work for one party and legitimately hold a position of influence in the opposite party. The GOP would lose their effing minds if the situation were reversed.
> William Owen, a Tennessee-based Democratic National Committee member backing an effort to use so-called superdelegates to select the party’s presidential nominee — potentially subverting the candidate with the most voter support — is a Republican donor and health care lobbyist. > > Owen, who runs a lobbying firm called Asset & Equity Corporations, donated to Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and gave $8,500 to a joint fundraising committee designed to benefit Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky in 2019. > >“I am a committed Democrat but as a lobbyist, there are times when I need to have access to both sides and the way to get access quite often is to make campaign contributions,” said Owen, in a brief interview with The Intercept. > >“I’m a registered lobbyist and I represent clients and they have interest in front of Congress and I attend the Senator’s Classic, which is a Republican event, each year,” he added.
Unlike the republican primary with many winner take all states, all democratic primary states are proportional with a 15% cutoff for delegates. Lets say Pete continue to nail it with middle/high income educated whites, Biden over-performs in browner places and Bloomberg can consistently hit 15% on the back of strong advertising, then none of these candidates are going to have a reason to drop out. They have every incentive to stick in it, rack up delegates and make their play at the convention, even if only for influence or a VP slot. The party isn't going to pressure them to drop out for the sake of helping Sanders, because, to be frank, we all know the party doesn't want sanders.
The democratic field looks remarkably like the republican field of 2016, with sanders playing the role of Trump. The problem is, without the winner take all states effect on the electorate, the 2016 republican primary would have likely ended up in a brokered convention too. If it was purely proportional, then Marco Rubio wouldn't have dropped out in March (while picking up tons of delegates in places like Florida where he performed strongly but it was WTA) and Trump wouldn't have acquired an air of inevitably so soon in the process that hurt Cruz.
Is this good or is this bad? On one hand, you can say the system is working to prevent an outsider surge from seizing the wheel of power like what happened with Trump. On the other hand, no one knows what the effect of a modern brokered convention would be, given we haven't had one since 1952. I think we can all agree that both parties have been urged to shift away the old smoke filled room style of leadership style to parties of the people. A brokered convention would serve as a major revision to the old days and the chaos that comes with one could easily be used to paint the Democrats as unable to govern.
Assume that Bernie gets a plurality of votes but not a majority, and the moderate votes added together are greater than his.
The thing is though, you can’t split it so cleanly between progressive vs moderate votes. For most Biden voters, Bernie Sanders is their second choice. People aren’t only voting on ideology it seems, but also personality and vision.
Everyone but Bernie said that the system should be allowed to work itself out rather than just nominating whoever got the plurality, so I find that occurring so easily being unlikely.
I heard some Trump supporters say that they might make Hillary the nominee in the brokered convention to unify the party and bring a return to normalcy, but that seems suicidal and conspiratorial, especially when Biden exists.
Do you think Bernie will be able to successfully negotiate to get delegates off of people like Klobuchar? Or will moderates hand their delegates over to whichever moderate has the most delegates currently because of their similar ideology? Or maybe they think a socialist can’t beat Trump? How will this go down?
Please chime in and explain to me precisely what we have to do to get Bernie the Democratic nomination.
This is not a joke or a disingenuos ploy of some kind.
I've been operating short term on Tsunami tactics getting the job done: More money raised, more volunteers, more unique contributors, more Primaries won, etc.
But I think I'm missing the point. Superdelegates can upset the applecart again. Correct? or not?
Some small changes were made to the superdelegate thingy, I know.
But if Bernie doesn't get 51 % of what? the superdelegates at The Convention get to pick their choice.
So, shouldn't we be rooting for as many candidates as possible to drop out or be eliminated? Aren't they all enemies?
Original post: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/dl5er3/we_need_to_avoid_a_brokered_convention_right_so/
