Hallo,
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1389957867315290119
Nur Gold, Silber und Platin weiter seitwärts.
Ein Schelm, wer Böses dabei denkt ;-)
LG
siggi
YTD up 113%.
The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) is a capped market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the largest digital assets traded in USD. Eligible index constituents are diversified across different categories, including stores of value, mediums of exchange, smart contract protocols and privacy assets.
Bitcoin - 30.00%
Ethereum - 30.00%
XRP - 18.58%
Bitcoin Cash - 9.34%
Litecoin - 6.63%
EOS - 5.45%
https://preview.redd.it/yptl8mpeg3j61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=22ecc2b5f33cbb853f2fc42fb0b1838521cfa2ac
So my own take on things is that inflation is much higher than expected, much less transient than expected, and the Fed in its current constellation is proposing little more than immaterial rate hike that will have a negligible impact on inflation. Given my perception (and I could be totally wrong, but let's take this for a given) that the entire equities market is hyperinflated, and even so-called "safe stocks" like big-tech are immensely overvalued, and that since the real rate hikes have not yet happened because no one (JPOW, Biden) wants to be the one that deflates the asset bubble by doing the necessary, that bonds will not provide any interesting investment for the time to come, but commodity prices seem to be skycorrected, and as I understand it, they are a good tradition hedge against inflation. But I am thinking not of hedging, but rather using this as a principal core of investment, until the rates are reasonable. Can I get any feedback on this thought? Pros and cons? Other alternatives? One that I can think of personally, is that I'm not sure a basket of all commodities is best, since as I understand it, some commodities like Gas and Oil in an inflationary context will drop massively along with the drop in consumption - so maybe Basic Necessity commodities? Not sure, really...
The large commodity indexes are due to start their annual roll on the 5th Business day of Jan for 5 days. This involves selling winning commodities from the prior year and buying losing ones so that the weights remain intact and also some change in weights based on an analysis of production. Does anyone have a good guess of total usd amounts linked to these index? Best I have is c200 bill, and is what I am using for oil.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/2022-sp-gsci-rebalance-advisory-panel.pdf
This is the best link I have for it and looks like they went ahead with this for the GSCI. Best thing to look at is the dollar weighted change which shows the proposed reweightings in basis points.
Basic story for oil (what I focus on) is a chunk of WTI selling, brt buying, gasoline buying (as if we need that right now) and heating and gas oil selling. The volumes are not super big basically because all commodities went up so much although oil increased big it was basically around the same as the index as a whole. I think there is net selling across the oil contracts of one percent of the money following the index, so basically if you believe 200 bill that is 2 bill of oil which is around 25k contracts over 5 days so 5k per day. Not huge but enough to maybe create some volatility around settlement in quiet markets. You may see gasoline outperform heat and gas oil during the rolls as these are less liquid contracts. I am always amazed at how little this effects things, maybe as info so public.
Gold Investors Are Moving On To Cryptocurrencies Like Bitcoin And Ethereum, Says Bloomberg Commodities Strategist
Investors are giving up on gold and moving on to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone.
What Happened: McGlone said in an interview with Stansberry Research that he underestimated the outflows from gold to the major cryptocurrencies this year, with the limited supply of cryptocurrencies overtaking the precious metal.
Why It Matters: Investors who previously took positions in gold as an inflationary hedge are now investing in cryptocurrencies in order to diversify their portfolios amid the rising popularity of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the world's two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Gold Investors Are Moving On To Cryptocurrencies Like Bitcoin And Ethereum, Says Bloomberg Commodities Strategist
Investors are giving up on gold and moving on to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone.
What Happened: McGlone said in an interview with Stansberry Research that he underestimated the outflows from gold to the major cryptocurrencies this year, with the limited supply of cryptocurrencies overtaking the precious metal.
Why It Matters: Investors who previously took positions in gold as an inflationary hedge are now investing in cryptocurrencies in order to diversify their portfolios amid the rising popularity of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the world's two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
