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Vitards,

As promised, I did a DEEP dive and read all 327 pages of ArcelorMittal's 2020 annual report.

Many of you already know some of what I'm going to share, but others are newer here, so I'm going to give a bit of who $MT is along the way.

With that being said, here we go:

ArcelorMittal has steel-making operations in 17 countries on four continents, including 38 integrated and mini-mill steel-making facilities following the sale of ArcelorMittal USA. As of December 31, 2020, ArcelorMittal had approximately 168,000 employees.

ArcelorMittal produces a broad range of high-quality finished and semi-finished steel products ("semis"). Specifically, ArcelorMittal produces flat products, including sheet and plate, and long products, including bars, rods and structural shapes. It also produces pipes and tubes for various applications.

ArcelorMittal sells its products primarily in local markets and to a diverse range of customers in approximately 160 countries, including the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction and machinery industries. ArcelorMittal’s mining operations produce various types of mining products including iron ore lump, fines, concentrate and sinter feed, as well as coking, PCI and thermal coal for consumption at its steel-making facilities some of which are also for sale commercially outside of the Group.

As a global steel producer, the Company is able to meet the needs of different markets. Steel consumption and product requirements clearly differ between developed markets and developing markets. Steel consumption in developed economies is weighted towards flat products and a higher value-added mix, while developing markets utilize a higher proportion of long products and commodity grades. To meet these diverse needs, the Company maintains a high degree of product diversification and seeks opportunities to increase the proportion of higher value-added products in its product mix.

History and Development of the Company

ArcelorMittal results from the merger in 2007 of its predecessor companies Mittal Steel Company N.V. and Arcelor, each of which had grown through acquisitions over many years. Since its creation ArcelorMittal has experienced periods of external growth as well consolidation and deleveraging (including through divestment).

ArcelorMittal's success is built on its core values of sustainability, quality and leadership and the entrepreneurial boldness that has empowered its emergence as the first truly global s

List of investment news in December 2021. Do not mistake this for investments in this month itself. They vary. Some invest now, others over a time period.

Danish Investment Fund invests $34 million in CleanMax

WardWizard lines up Rs 500 crore investment in Gujarat

Textile firm Sangam India to invest ₹1,521 crore in Rajasthan

CreditAccess Grameen to invest up to Rs 250 cr into subsidiary MMFL

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel has planned to expand the Hazira plant's to 18 million tonnes by investing ₹50,000 crore

Tabreed-IFC to invest $400 m in India’s cooling space

Arcelor Mittal Nippon Steel’s Rs 1 lakh crore steel unit approved in Odisha’s Kendrapada

Olectra Greentech to set up India’s biggest electric bus factory with 10000 units capacity-Rs.600 crore +

Thomas Scott (India) to set up new manufacturing activities in Haryana - Rs.40-50 million

Simple Energy to invest Rs 2,500 crores to set up EV manufacturing plant in Tamil Nadu

Hyundai India plans to invest ₹4,000 cr to rev up EV biz

[American Pre

*sniffle* *sniffle* *moan* *gasp* *wheeze*

Vi-Vipiteno~ *sniffle* V-vietnam again.... *sniffle* Melbourne and the GOR.... *disquieting silence* NEPAL!!!!!

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So I definitely did enjoy the first three episodes of TAR33. Despite them being the only the second streak of consecutive episodes to be held in the same foreign country, I think they all stand well as worthy legs. The cast has also proved to be quite decent. I'll be going through both aspects here.

Right, so none of the first three legs were terrible. I wasn't terribly impressed with London 1 though. While the fact that it's a night leg makes it a bit better, there was nothing really good here, either has a leg on its own or as a premiere. It only had one non-scavenger hunt-y task, and even half of that was technically a scavenger hunt too. Artist's Den/Digiben is a pretty subpar Detour too. I would have picked Digiben. With no other tasks in this leg other than just going to places and picking up clues, this was a very bare-bones premiere all around. The Natural History Museum was one of the best Pit Stops we've seen in a while though. Oh, and all the walking too.

Also lol at the Michael and Moe blunder. One of the most absurd mistakes a team has ever made in episode 1. How did they fuck up that badly?

Episode 2 is a bit better in my eyes because it actually had proper tasks. No equalisers from the previous leg and a night-day change Delhi-style count in its favour too. The Mail Rail task was probably the single easiest RB in TAR history, but it was a really cool setting, had cultural relevance, and gave us a memorable moment so it's definitely in my top 50% of them. The Detour, Bullseye, Mate/Decorate, (jesus CBS. I think cavorting with Ten has been a bad influence on you. First Artist's Den/Digiben and now this. What in the name of flying fuck are these names?) was fairly alright in my opinion. While the darts side gave me TARCAN flashbacks and was obviously a replacement task, Decorate was fun and I legitimately fell into the Norway trap. The fact that we know of the ArcelorMittal Orbit task retroactively makes this leg better too. While unfortunately the most London weather condition of them all (apart from rain, of course) made this little more than a time-waster in practice, I give Production credit for what they were attempting to have done here. It would have been another fun experience for t

**Any one else in this group that have sold out on ACL ArcelorMittal?**Here is the link to Alec Hogg morning post that share some insight in what the directors are doing... Fundamentally its a recipe for disaster. Fundamentally I have decided to sell my entire position on them. Yes I would have consider myself part of the problem gaining 300%, but this on the basis of investing in Metal companies in our country due to shortages...

Question, who is holding?

Me no likey...

View Poll

First of all sorry for writing such a long post but i want to describe the enviroment as best as i can in order to recive the best advice and also some feedback on any mistakes i might have made when placing the trade so i can learn and improve.

I currently own 150 shares of MT (Arcelor Mittal), and 3 LEAPS expiring JUN 23 with a strike of 20 euro (cost basis 7.90, break even 27.90). Having those underlyings i decided to sold 5 calls with a strike of 29 euro, expiring JAN 21 (currently 37 DTE). At that moment the stock was trading around 25 euro and the calls had around 16 Delta each, i collected 35 euro in premium for each call. I was expecting the stock to remain between 25 and 26.5 euros for a while but in the last 3 days the stock has skyrocketted up to 28.305 wich represents more than a 10% increase in 2 days.

This has increase the IV rank in 15 points, delta has gone up to 41, and now the calls that i sold are trading at 100 Euro each. I expect the price to fall a bit after such rally but now i am trying to plan in case i am at risk of getting assigmend. I would like to ask for some advice on how to manage this situation. I was thinking on rolling up and out once my strike price is ATM. I am specially concerned for the LEAPS as they have risen significally in value and the profit of selling the LEAPS if higher of the profit that i could get from exercicing them and selling the shares.

Sorry for the long read, and thanks for you time.

TLDR: Sold some Coverd calls for a small premium a few weeks ago using shares and LEAPS as collateral, now the stock prices has skyrocketted more than 10 in 2 days and i would like some advice on the best way to manage the possition.

Edit: Changed the current contract price, originally i indicated 1 euro, but it is 1*100 shares = 100 euro in premium.

Edit2: I am going to try to update on my position in case it is useful for someone in the future. Once the stock price tested my strike and went up to 29.30 (aprox) i decided to roll up and out to the next month cicle. I closed my position and sold the 31 call, taking into account commisions and the premium received from selling the original call I won't earn anything from premiums, but since I am bullish on the stock I am looking to earn 200 euros more per contract in case it gets assigned. As It stands right now I'll hold until expiration or close for a very small lose once the contracts lose most of their value. I'll update with the end result.

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BofA analyst Patrick Mann lowered the firm's price target on ArcelorMittal to EUR 45 (~$51) from EUR 47 (~$53) and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as he contends that the final quarter of 2021 represents somewhat of an "air pocket" for the company with spot prices lower quarter-over-quarter and prices for annually contracted volumes only set to move higher in 2022. While noting that his estimates are now about 16% and almost 5% below consensus for Q4 and 2021, respectively, and stating that this "is usually a good reason to consider downgrading a cyclical stock," Mann views the valuation of ArcelorMittal shares as "extremely compelling" in light of the company's capital allocation policy.

Read more at: https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3417161

Every broad movement contains different components. The events in Kazakhstan have absorbed both social discontent, and the activities of the "fifth column", and the actions of terrorist groups. At the same time, the "fifth column" includes here and extremists committed to radical Islamism. And numerous NGOs fed by the West. And individual security officials who were looking for benefits in the troubled waters of instability. And oligarchic clans, ready to use mass protests in the struggle for the redistribution of power.

The fraternal peoples of Russia and Kazakhstan are closely linked with each other by centuries of common history. Together we created the Soviet Union, built and won, we were proud of outstanding economic and social achievements. Together we revived the integration processes, creating the EurAsEC, SCO and CSTO.

Today our comrades and friends are going through a period of difficult trials. Massive protest actions swept across Kazakhstan. In the southern capital - Alma-Ata - bloody riots took place with a large number of victims and destruction.

An accurate and comprehensive analysis of events has a lot to consider. It is clear that the situation in Kazakhstan is a direct consequence of the tragedy that happened to all of us thirty years ago. The destruction of the USSR, the rejection of the socialist system and Soviet power laid numerous mines under the new "independent and democratic" states. The primitive capitalism into which the post-Soviet republics were plunged, inevitably doomed the working people to impoverishment and lack of rights, gave rise to glaring inequality. At the same time, our peoples turned out to be extremely vulnerable in the face of external threats.

Contrary to the promises of liberal upheavals, the new states did not become full-fledged members of the "civilized world." Global capital has prepared for them the role of raw materials appendages and sales markets, sources of cheap labor and pawns in the geopolitical adventures of the imperialist powers.

Kazakhstan also followed a shaky path. The advanced branches of production disappeared in the whirlpool of privatization. The raw materials sector was outsourced to foreign capital. In the oil and gas sector, the corporations Chevron and Exxon Mobil (USA), Total (France), Royal Dutch Shell (Great Britain and the Netherlands) are entrenched. The new master of the steel industry was the transnational corporation Arcelor Mittal.

In close connection w

ArcelorMittal announces CAD$205 million decarbonisation investment in its flagship Canadian mining operations with support from the Quebec government

3 November 2021, 18:35 CET
At an event held at COP26 today, ArcelorMittal ( MT ) (‘the Company’) and the government of Quebec announced a CAD$205 million investment by ArcelorMittal Mining Canada (‘AMMC’) in its Port-Cartier pellet plant, enabling this facility to convert its entire 110 million tonne annual pellet production to direct reduced iron (‘DRI’) pellets by the end of 2025.

The investment, in which the Quebec government will contribute through an electricity rebate of up to CAD$80 million, will enable the Port-Cartier plant to become one of the world’s largest producers of DRI pellets, the raw material feedstock for ironmaking in a DRI furnace. The project includes the implementation of a flotation system that will enable a significant reduction of silica in the iron ore pellets, facilitating the production of a very high-quality pellet.

The project will deliver a direct annual CO2e reduction of approximately 200,000 tonnes at AMMC’s Port-Cartier pellet plant, equivalent to over 20% of the pellet plant’s total annual CO2e emissions. This reduction in CO2e emissions will be achieved through a reduction in the energy required during the pelletising process.

A DRI plant uses natural gas to reduce iron ore, resulting in a significant reduction in CO2 emissions compared with coal-based blast furnace ironmaking. In Hamburg, Germany, ArcelorMittal ( MT ) is trialing replacing natural gas with hydrogen to make DRI, with its industrial scale pilot project anticipated to be commissioned before the end of 2025. The DRI installations the Company has announced it is developing in Belgium, Canada and Spain are all being constructed to be hydrogen-ready, so as and when green hydrogen is available in sufficient quantities at affordable prices the Company can produce DRI with near zero-carbon emissions.

Approximately 250 jobs are expected to be created during the construction phase of the project in Port-Cartier, which is scheduled to be begin mid-2023 and complete before the end of 2025.

Expressing the Quebec government’s support for the project, Premier François Legault said:

“With this project, the Port-Cartier *plant wi

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GS released an update for their EU steel coverage. It includes updates to MT estimates as well as steel prices. Here are the bits that are of interest. It's their words, not mine.

Also please be aware what this is. It's sell-side research typically intended for their institutional clients and HNW individuals. That's pretty low on the totem pole of Wall St -- sell-side analysts are notoriously late to call things and if they were rain-makers they'd be on the buy side. So, take it for what it's worth. It's not gospel. (I like it because they do a far better job than I ever could.)

--------------------------------------------

European steel market: Tight supply, recovering demand...

Despite steel prices being close to all-time highs, we remain constructive on European steel equities given the extremely tight supply backdrop in Europe, driven by: i) high capacity utilisation, ii) no obvious near-term greenfield capacity additions, and iii) imports under pressure given China's production curbs. Inventory levels have recovered somewhat in Europe but remain low vs. historical levels, while apparent demand in Europe is strong.

On the supply side, we expect the European steels market to remain constrained given:

• Capacity utilisation remains high at ~90% capacity: Latest channel checks suggest that EU steel mills are running at or close to full operational capacity (90+% utilisation level) and with little-to-no buffer available to come online.
• Few capacity additions coming online: Despite the high steel prices, European producers continued to maintain capital discipline this year and did not announce any major capacity additions (unlike in the US with US Steel and Nucor). This further strengthens our view that the European market will remain tight.
• Imports from China under pressure driven by production curbs and energy issues: China historically formed a significant portion of imports into the EU, however this year, it targeted flat yoy steel output for 2021 to curb emissions, implying significant cuts to steel production in 2H (China's 1H production was up 11%, implying a 10% fall yoy in 2H21). On top of this, China's current power issues are reinforcing this trend, as a result of which our commodities team forecasts steel output in Q3 to fall 10% y/y and 12% q/q to 255mt, which implies a steel capacity cut of just under 150mty from Q2.

On the demand side, while risks remain from weakness in China's construction data and ripple effects to the

I’ve been in deep thought since Friday night, started reading through the dailies and DM’s for the past few hours this morning.

My son says I’m crazy, don’t read them and just delete.

That’s just not me though - if you are going to take the good, be prepared and willing to take the bad is what I tell him.

So, I’m practicing what I preach.

With that being said, I’m going to acknowledge a few things that have been posted and DM’d as well.

I’m also going to ramble as I’m sitting in RDU waiting to fly back to ORD after a trip to UNC. . .Sorry, Dukies.

I think it’s time to talk about me.

I’m not your Daddy, but feel like it many days as I try to hold your hands and tell you it’s going to be “ok” as we were being gutted like we were Friday.

So, who am I and what do I do?

I am an industry veteran for the better part of 25 years.

I have been in steel since my first job out of college.

It is all I know (not really) and all I do.

I live and breathe it.

I used to be a top executive for a multi-billion dollar steel company.

Now, I own my own business and have for a few years.

I buy semi-finished and finished products from every publicly traded company that we discuss here.

I also buy from dozens of others that no one here has heard of in South America, Africa, Europe and Asia.

I’m plugged in and have been able to give everyone here a glimpse into the future before the future was written due to this vast network of relationships I have spent the past 25 years building.

Almost everything I said was going to happen, happened, with the exception of our stocks being on the moon along with the prices of the products they sell.

The market will continue to do what it does but I am 100% confident in everything I have laid out and shared.

The timing, of course, is the hardest part.

I’ll get back to this and “the moving of the goalposts” - I’m reading everything you guys are laying down.

Getting back to me, that’s the buy side.

Let me tell you about the sell side.

I sell to many publicly traded companies, as well as many privately owned companies.

From big corporations to small, family-owned businesses.

I talk to executives, owners and purchasing managers across all of North America, as do many of my sales people and what I share here is the unbiased information I acquire from them and the sales we are making that as of right now are into Q1 2022.

This is the first time in my 25 years of selling steel that we have seen demand o

Gonna try to feed you apes with some proper value instead of the shit you're always throwing your money at, not expecting too much. xx.

TLDR:

• China makes tons of silicon metal, but its super energy intensive
• China is enjoying an energy crisis factories are shutting down
• Same time: screaming demand for silicon metal for semis and solar panels
• $GSM and silicon metal is going ⬆⬆⬆⬆

By now I’m pretty sure we’ve all become aware of a “little tightness” in the energy and power industry in some places of the world. It looks a bit like this for anyone who’s missed.

There seems to be a massive demand and a tight supply for anything that generates power.

The explanations and reasons for this situation are many, some of them are poor planning with storage-fillings of natural gas and coal , underinvestment in new production, weather issues like droughts that limits hýdropower generation , hurricanes forcing evacuation of oil rigs , striking miners , labor shortages , a/c demanding heatwaves, siberian fires damaging russian gas processing plants , and unfavorable weather conditions for wind power .

While there’s been some unlucky events this year for sure, there’s nothing that stands out as particularly extreme. The fuel supply chain will always take some damage, but the effects that we see today seem to point to the fact that our power supply chain is weak, and meanwhile our demand just keeps growing.

We are also in a transition phase of moving from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy like wind and solar, which has led to years of held back spending on new production of oil, gas and coa

Natural gas prices are surging in Europe. There's a lot of news articles like this one from The Economist. Here it is in picture if you don't like reading.

https://preview.redd.it/7xt2xi7y3mp71.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=4915311fb45bb944fdf4df596c219ed91bcd28f5

This will negatively affect MT. There are two main ways of making steel:

• Burn coal and melt iron ore and turn that into steel
• Burn natural gas to generate electricity to melt scrap. Or use natural gas to produce direct reduced iron.

Burning coal is not good for the environment they're being phased out so modern plants use natural gas. This is why US steel makers are at a very good competitive advantage. We have abundant cheap natural gas. Fracking made this possible.

In MT's annual report, there are entire sections that talk about natural gas:

>Natural gas
>
>ArcelorMittal procures much of its natural gas requirements for its Canadian and Mexican operations (and prior to the ArcelorMittal USA Transaction, its US operations) from the natural gas spot market or through short-term contracts entered into with local suppliers, with prices fixed either by contract or tariff-based spot market prices. For its European and Ukrainian operations, with a contractual mix of “all-in” bilateral supply and direct access to the market, ArcelorMittal sources its natural gas requirements under the prevailing mix of oil-based pricing systems and European short term/spot-indexed supply contracts. The remainder of ArcelorMittal’s natural gas consumption represents approximately 20% of ArcelorMittal’s total consumption and is generally sourced from regulated markets

>Approximately 38% of its crude steel was produced in the Americas, approximately 47% was produced in Europe and approximately 15% was produced in other countries, such as Kazakhstan, South Africa and Ukraine 3 Management report in 2020

47% of its steel is produced in Europe where natural gas prices are sky rocketing. And as stated above, they don't have long term contracts. I don't think their Q3 and Q4 are going to be good.

American steel makers like CLF/NUE/STLD should be fine.

Disclosure: I have no steel positions now as I sold them. It has been a good ride and I made a lot of money thanks all you wonde

Cleveland-Cliffs notes -

Macro - 9/18/2021

Steel companies reaffirming strong demand trends into 2022 and improving ability to return more capital to shareholders, per mid-quarter updates from X, NUE and STLD.

China does indeed appear to be reducing steel production as it expanded its air pollution controls for the upcoming winter to approximately 64 cities in the northern region.

X to build a new $3bn minimill with capacity of 3mm t/y. Construction is expected to begin in 1H22, production likely to commence in 2024.

STLD and NUE both raised 3Q21 earning guidance supported by strong HRC prices and expect to report their highest ever quarterly earnings in 3Q21.

Fins will take direct control over Swedish steelmaker SSAB from Solidium, with a view of aligning interests to reach carbon neutrality by 2035.

CLF

Largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America.

Largest manufacturer of iron ore pellets in North America.

Largest supplier of steel to the automotive industry in North America.

$101,940 median employee compensation during 2020.

CLF projections made in September 2, 2021:

Third-quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.8 billion.

Third-quarter 2021free cash flow generation of $1.4 billion.

2021 estimated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.5 billion, versus $.35 billion.

Current Short Volume 43,110,000 shares Avg. Volume 26,274,489

Deleveraging, shareholder returns & decarbonization remain a key theme.

HRC

Futures price for one ton of hot-rolled coil steel is roughly $1,934, up from $615 September 2020:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/ferrous/hrc-steel.quotes.html#

Price of iron ore, input to the production of has tumbled more than 40% since the mid-July 2021:

https://www.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures

Section 232 Tariffs

25% tariff on imported steel announced March 1, 2018 with exemptions for South Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil. Canada and Mexico subsequently exempted. China was target.

Democrats mostly supportive of continuing tariff, especially those from Rust Belt states, plank in Biden’s worker-centered trade policy.

Biden administration is determined to retain support from the United Steelworkers, a force in key states in the industrial Midwest.

Steel industry organizations credit the existing tariffs with creating 3,200 jobs and sparking $15.7 billion in spending on mill upgrades and the reopening of idled facilities. Imports last year accounted for 18 percent

Want to know why you’re nervous, anxious, and emotionally turbulent when you make that Meme stock YOLO?

Because you have no fucking clue why you’re investing in it outside of group-think.

Spoiler alert: virtually none of the companies being spammed on this sub over the last week make any fucking money. Go for it, look up their last earnings report and look at how much money they shat down the drain.

That’s why they have short interest in excess of 20% - they’re SHIT COMPANIES.

Trading them is a fucking shot in the dark - sure, it might go up based off retail buy pressure, gamma ramp, or a short getting margin called elsewhere in their account - but if it does YOU GOT LUCKY.

These are shit companies, and guess what happens if you don’t get the market mechanics you’re looking for?

You’re bag holding a shit company.

There are literally two companies with traction on this sub that turn a profit, $UWMC and $CLF.

UWMC looked good months ago, same time RKT did - only since then housing starts have dropped three months in a row, and the imminent collapse of homebuyer sentiment is dinner-table conversation in every suburb your mom has a boyfriend. Share price valuations are forward-looking, and the outlook for UWMC is not overly positive, no matter what the half-assed DD you read here said.

CLF has the exact opposite macro-outlook. Steel prices have tripled in the past year, with industry overheads remaining largely stable save for the price of Iron Ore, which has also ran up significantly. Fortunately, CLF produces their own Iron Ore, so they are literally shitting out money as they reap the benefits of vertical integration.

Steel prices are the highest they’ve ever been - nearly every single steel company is going to report their greatest quarter in history this summer. But most importantly:

STEEL PRICES ARE GOING TO STAY HIGH. Why?

• Chinese steel accounts for 15-20% of the global export market, and they’ve all but stopped exporting - they eliminated Tax rebate incentives for steel producers last month in a bid to keep supply grounded domestically for their own affordable infrastructure stimulus and carbon emissions goals, and have been floating rumors of an export tax the past two weeks. 15% of the worlds export tonnage drying up is HUGE - the leftover demand will NEED to come from somewhere.

Additionally, the 2022 Beijing olympics are around the corner, and who remembers what china did in an effort to combat smog prior to t

This post is to consider buys and options in CLF. There is VERY large near term risk and reward.

CLF is a US steel manufacturing company, one of the worlds largest, and environmentally cleanest. Says they: "Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel company and the largest iron ore pellet producer in North America. The company is vertically integrated from mining through iron making, steelmaking, rolling, finishing and downstream with hot and cold stamping of steel parts and components. " It is not new to WSB, usually~ top 25 tickers mentioned prior 10y.

Now there is a monstrous "Infrastructure" bill being considered (bridges, roads, rail) for ~1 T USD Will it pass? We will see. That is the play here. It is a straight fundamentals/value play, with a transformative binary event coming.

TBD consider- on the plus side, all the steel needed to correct crumbling bridges, falling condo towers, the rebar for concrete, and the new Amtrak rail proposition...most all of this will come from steel made by CLF. It is a domestic pay to play contracting deal. CLF knows this. They have aquired Arcelor Mittal and AK steel to become THE player that will directly benefit from the passage of the bill. There are financial minuses. To doot:

PLUSES:

YUGE Infrastructure Contrax Potentate Transformer events imminent

110MM in cash

Profitable with 4 BB in revenue per Q (!!)

10x positive momentum, from the 2020 trough

2/3 of ownership is institutional / bullish hedges (Lazard, Wellington, Victory, Berkshire/Buffet, Viking et al)

Short float >10%

Cramer likes it

MINUSES:

Massive Insider purchase/sell churn of 40 MM shares / 12 mos. Why?

Debt=Assets = 6BB

"Other Liabilities" = 6BB (WTF are those??)

Short float >10%

Cramer likes it

OVERALL

The next week will determine if the Senate will pass this infrastructure thing. It is NOT CLEAR if the 1716 bipartisan earmarks funds for politicians home districts ("pork barrel profit") will be enough to guarantee votes to pass this overstuffed pig through the Senate. This is the sub-Trillion dollar Jabba the Hutt of bills, being shoved through the door before another election, while its still possible. Negotiation is happening. A few R votes were in swing districts. However, only a few moderate/conservative seantors are needed now. It is also not clear overall if politics will interfere (despite everyone wanting to fund infrastructure), because D are demanding a concomitant social reparation and reconciliat

From GS sell-side research. Dated Aug 26th.

SMU Steel Summit 2021 takeaways - pinpointing the 2022 inflection point; Buy NUE, STLD

We attended the SMU Steel Summit in Atlanta, Georgia on August 23-25. We came away from the event with continued confidence around the steel price environment for the remainder of the year on strong US demand trends and tight supply. However, the debate around pinpointing the inflection point was top of mind as the ramp of new supply and higher imports could catalyze the decline in steel prices from current highs. Within, we highlight key takeaways from the event, including panels with the management teams of NUE (Buy), STLD (Buy) and CLF (Neutral).

Industry takeaways

Views around the US HRC price outlook diverge between a rapid decline and more moderated step down.

• Most industry participants expect US HRC prices to trend lower in 2022. That said, opinions around the pace of the fall have been mixed. The most common view called for a more precipitous decline in steel prices, to the extent customers rapidly pull back from purchases on signs of slowing demand or oversupply. Those who expect a more moderated path lower view this to be driven by the gradual increase in supply.

• Those most negative around the outlook for steel prices pointed to the downward inflection point beginning in the next couple of months, while those more positive expect the trend lower to commence in the 1Q22 - 2Q22 timeframe. Generally, expectations for the normalized steel price environment ranged between $700-900/ton longer term.

• Notably, lead times as reported by CRU stepped down from ~10 weeks to ~9 weeks recently, with service center inventories also sequentially increasing in July. While these datapoints suggest a turn in the steel markets ahead, manufacturers still appear more concerned around the ability to source volumes rather than price.

Scrap outlook appears set for wider prime-obsolete spreads longer term.

• Industry participants see export pricing trends as leading the way for domestic obsolete scrap prices, with US shredded prices often lagging price changes for Turkish scrap. More recently, Turkish scrap prices have been subdued on the back of softer rebar demand in Asia, indicative of a potential reversal in US obsolete scrap strength.

• Nearer term, some industry participants expect prime scrap prices to decline, following an increase in pig iron supply (and fall in pig iron price following higher Russian

Cleveland-Cliffs Completes Redemption of All Outstanding Preferred Shares with $1.2 Billion in Cash, Reducing Diluted Share Count by 10%

July 28, 2021 01:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) announced today that it has completed the redemption of the entirety of its outstanding Series B Participating Redeemable Preferred Stock held by an affiliate of ArcelorMittal S.A. for approximately $1.2 billion, or $21.18 per common share for the equivalent of approximately 58 million common shares. The redemption was completed with existing liquidity. The elimination of the preferred shares from Cleveland-Cliffs’ capital structure reduces the Company’s diluted share count by 10% on a pro-forma basis.

Lourenco Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs’ Chairman, President, and CEO, said: “Given the strength of our business fundamentals and where our common shares have been trading, the buyback of the preferred shares at an attractive price was a no-brainer, highly accretive deal for our shareholders. We actually believe this transaction is even better than a common share buyback, because we acquired the entire tranche at a 20-day VWAP without making any noise in the market. The buyback is done, and the total cash spent is less than the free cash flow we expect to generate this quarter.”

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210727006218/en/Cleveland-Cliffs-Completes-Redemption-Outstanding-Preferred-Shares-1.2

Source: https://8marketcap.com/

Tesla and BTC market cap is now 2.4 Trillion USD. Market cap of these 31 globally hyper crucial companies is exactly 2.3 Trillion USD:

Now, realize this. To replace these 31 corporations and their services - it will be extremely difficult and time consuming. If they will all disappear from the face of Earth: our civilization will be in deep deep trouble.

What will happen if Tesla and Bitcoin will disappear? Almost nothing. Society will function as before.

So why they are valued higher? Its freakin NUTS!

Its a scam, ponzi, stupidity of Gigantic proportions!

I tell you more. Once bubbles of TSLA and BTC will pop, valuations of things which are truly needed: like silver, copper, oil, coal, iron, gas, uranium and companies which mine them, transport them, etc. will be MUCH HIGHER.

Whats even more shocking is that FIAT assets : gov currencies and bonds are priced 100x higher, at 230 Trillion - but their functionality is zero. Since gold, silver stocks, ETFs can serve exactly the same function in economy. Apart from making tyrants more powerful, that is.

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Prolog:
Ich checke nicht wieso ihr alle auf den Stahlzug springt.

Ende Januar Anfang Februar hättet ihr einsteigen müssen.

Seit den Gamestop Hype sind hier echt noch behinderte Menschen als davor. Ihr handelt zu Zeitversetzt und rennt einer Idee zu lange hinterher.

(tldr; Adityas maximale Kaufpreise für das Share Buyback sind begrenzt. Bisher gab es kaum Möglichkeiten für MT Aktien zu kaufen, aber Aditya kauft jeden Dip. Der Preis wird kontinuierlich steigen.)

Liebe Brudierende,

wie bereits im Kindergarten angekündigt wollte ich für euch was zu Adityas Aktien Rückkaufprogramm schreiben. Gruß auch an die Discordbande.

Mit den Halbjahresergebnissen am 29.07.2021 hat MT ein weiteres share buy-back angekündigt. https://corporate.arcelormittal.com/investors/results Die letzten buy-backs haben den Kurs ordentlich hoch getrieben. Im Daily habe ich gesehen, dass viele von euch sich fragen, warum MT jetzt eher seitlich läuft.

Zunächst einmal Calls auf meine Frau, die mir während unseres Urlaubs erlaubt hat den Earnings Call zu verfolgen.

Von Adityas Stimme schon erregt bis in die Nippelspitzen musste ich plötzlich feststellen, dass die Hecken nie genug bekommen können. Patrick Mann von der BofA Merrill Lynch fragt tatsächlich, ob es mit den Q3 Earnings ein weiteres buy-back geben könnte.

Hier die Stelle für euch (Quelle):

Patrick Mann -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good day, everybody. Thank you very much. I just wanted to follow up maybe on the capital allocation and the share buyback question from earlier. So you brought forward $1 billion from 2022 for this quarter. Is it possible that at Q3 you could look at how the business is doing and possibly look at something like that again, to smooth it out or this it till the end of the year now?

Genuino M. Christino -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Patrick, so I think it's -- so we have a lot now on our plate, right? So we just announced this $2.2 billion program. It's much higher than the previous four programs that we have completed. So we are giving ourselves five months to complete this new program. So we should not underestimate the work that we have in front of us, **especially because we have some technical limitations in terms of the volumes that we can buy and the p

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I'm curious to hear the general consensus on whether there's any correlation between Cliffs and their eurobro, Arcelor Mittal.

There's always significantly less chatter (stocktwits mainly) regarding MT so they're harder to keep up with, but does CLF's success and rise after today's earnings bode well for MT? They've been beaten down hard over the past 3 months and ITM options seem quite cheap.

Oh, and does anyone know what to do about an erection that lasts longer than 4 hours? Asking for a friend with a ton of CLF leaps.

You’ve probably recently seen CLF on WSB, CNBC, and all over the place lately? Why is that…? Because Steel is going fucking crazy right now, and CLF is ahead of the curve.

So, what’s the play? Why is it a play? How is it play? Buckle up boys: close out of porn hub, grab a beer, and prepare for your smooth brain to gain a half-wrinkle. You’re going to be here a while.

Let’s start with the company, Cleveland Cliffs. This company is 174 fucking years old, employs 25,000 people, and it’s traditionally been the largest and oldest independent iron ore mining company in the USA. They own or co-own five active iron ore mines in Minnesota and Michigan and maintain an annual rated iron ore production capacity of approximately 28.0 million long tons.

Ok, so what? Who the fuck cares – mining and steel production isn’t sexy, pink-haired septum pierced hippies hate it, and it’s barely a blip on Wall Street’s radar. Guess what- I care, and you should too.

When evaluating a company, there are several dimensions to look at - the people and their long-term strategies behind the company are some of the most important. Let’s go deeper.

Cue in Lourenco Goncalves. This maniacal son of a bitch joined CLF seven years ago as CEO through a contested proxy battle and he’s been transforming the company and telling Goldman Sachs analysts they are embarrassments to their parents ever since. The fucking balls on this guy. This is the kind of guy you want on your team. He's nuts, but he's going to prove everyone else wrong and get shit done. In the last seven years, LG’s entire initiative and strategy has been to completely transform an overleveraged wilting company, into what it is today – the USA’s largest flat-rolled steel company and the largest iron ore pellet producer. But again, big whoop, right? Who the fuck cares? Let's go deeper.

Transformation: Operational Strategy

So, what’s changed? Just last year, CLF acquired two major steelmakers: AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA. THIS IS HUGE and what Wall Street hasn’t seemed to fully process. With this move, CLF has set itself up to own the entire aspect of the operations process and now they are VERTICALLY INTEGRATED. This means that they own and control everything upstream and downstream – from ore in the ground to selling products to end-user customers. This gives them added scale of operations, greater

The workbook polls yahoo finance for stock prices, and the ArcelorMittal site for buyback progress.

https://preview.redd.it/po8f3z8l8tg71.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c5e9a38ea2568545b6fdef258017525a5bf4759

Link to File:

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsZ1O4mQBa-6qG_UnEXMmTVfoq8G?e=eiLfC7

Why the heck did/does Barron's see/categorize CLF as an iron ore miner?

CLF was founded in 1847 as a mine operator.

In 2018 CLF was the largest and oldest independent iron ore mining company in the United States and were a major supplier of iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry.

And today, CLF mines over 20 million long tons of iron ore.

I believe today, CLF is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in North America.

So, the collapse of iron ore prices will severely negatively affect CLF's revenue. NO!!!

9/20/2021

As a result of our recent acquisitions, most of our iron ore production—more than 20 million long tons—is consumed by our own, vertically-integrated steelmaking operations, per CLF website.

Hot-briquetted iron (HBI) is a compact, high-quality, environmentally friendly metallic source and a premium alternative to prime scrap and imported pig iron. HBI is used throughout our facilities at our blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces, and electric arc furnaces, as well as sold to third-parties.

9/3/2021

LG hosted Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) at the Direct Reduction Plant in Toledo. The senator toured the facility and discussed the Buy America protections he had secured in the bipartisan infrastructure plan, which will ensure American taxpayer dollars are used to purchase American-made products for all federally funded infrastructure projects.

12/9/2020

Completed the acquisition of substantially all of the operations of ArcelorMittal, forming the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America.

3/18/2020

Completed the acquisition of AK Steel Holding Corporation

8/31/2018

Closed the sale of its Asia Pacific Iron Ore assets to Mineral Resources Limited to consolidate its operations to North America.

LG noted the sale of the company’s Australian assets allows the company to return to its roots “as a supplier of high-grade iron units in the Great Lakes steel industry.”

At the time, CLF was the largest and oldest independent iron ore mining company in the United States and was a major supplier of iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry from their mines and pellet plants located in Michigan and Minnesota. By 2020, CLF expected to be the sole producer of hot briquetted iron (HBI) in the Great Lakes region with the development of its first production plant in Toledo, Ohio.

Conclusion

Barron's is not wrong calling CLF an iron ore miner, but that characterization misses the fact the CLF

INTRO - I have a feeling this week is going to be another good week for the major indices and tech. I do believe most inflation fears are priced in, have been for some time, and for the most part this is an ordinary summer. The 10 year bond has dropped right around 1.35% which will indicate what sectors we should be investing in. It seems like the lower it goes, the better tech and growth do. Traditionally cheaper money benefits these companies that carry a lot of paper. I'm not expecting any major changes on this front. Yet, I am getting ready to take profits on longer term positions and move somethings around in preparation for a bigger dip in September or August that I've been writing about for some time now.

TODAY - Good start to the week as the markets across the board set fresh all time highs! My portfolio is up over $10k.

Year-to-date gains in the S&P and NASDAQ are at 18% and 15% respectively and even though I am expecting a pull back after the summer, there is still more room to run towards the end of the year.

https://preview.redd.it/qyshhp5qhva71.png?width=1121&format=png&auto=webp&s=3083deb40b7fda498d29d0a0210c0fae1727e8f2

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I do think that $AAPL will pull back, unfortunately for my LEAPS, however if it does getting into another position closer to the 180 MA is beneficial. There is no real guarantee that AAPL will recede all the way back down, giving up all the gains from the last couple weeks, however September is usually a horrible month for AAPL. In case, I will be prepared.

https://preview.redd.it/2hueebk7gva71.png?width=1156&format=png&auto=webp&s=041dbab8f67ee16ac8a4f70f33077a0da02f66fe

Next on the list of new alerts is $ROKU. I am not that bullish on ROKU and agree with Morgan Stanley giving it a sell rating. If it does rise up to the resistance trend line, it will be almost all time high. I like puts at this point.

https://preview.redd.it/zluyryg9gva71.png?width=1156&format=png&auto=webp&s=438bd1a0b0657f12fa519bbfcca854a7037cf609

MSFT, like AAPL, has ran up a great bit the last few weeks. Currently most indicators are showing levels of over bought. I don't want to buy puts or short MSFT, but if it does pull back toward the support, which it has bounce many times before, I'm a buyer.

https://pr

Update for completeness:

CLF beat its own adjusted EBITDA projections from June 15: $1.4B Actual vs 1.3B Forecast

Actual Adjusted EPS*: $1.46

Analysts Estimates: $1.51 (Capital IQ), $1.52 (Refinitiv), $1.61 (Earnings Whispers)

Note:

*Adjusted EPS $1.46 (as opposed to EPS) should be used in comparison with the different estimates by different parties.

Adjusted EPS of $1.46 = Net Income derived EPS of $1.33 + $0.13 from acquisition and debt paydown charges

This report should use Adjusted EPS of $1.46 as opposed to $1.33 for comparison. Thanks to all for pointing it out.

Record quarterly revenue of $5.0 billion

• Record quarterly net income of $795 million
• Record quarterly adjusted EBITDA1 of $1.4 billion

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) today reported second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2021.

Second-quarter 2021 consolidated revenues were $5.0 billion, compared to the prior-year second-quarter revenues of $1.1 billion.

For the second quarter of 2021, the Company recorded net income of $795 million, or $1.33 per diluted share. This included the following charges totaling $77 million, or $0.13 per diluted share:

• charges of $37 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, of inventory step-up amortization, related to the revaluation of inventory following the acquisition of substantially all of the operations of ArcelorMittal USA;
• charges of $22 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, for debt extinguishment costs; and
• charges of $18 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, for acquisition-related loss on equity method investment.

In the prior-year second quarter, the Company recorded a net loss of $108 million, or a loss of $0.31 per diluted share.

For the first six months of 2021, the Company recorded revenues of $9.1 billion and net income of $852 million, or $1.48 per diluted share. In the first six months of 2020, the Company recorded revenues of $1.5 billion and a net loss of $157 million, or a loss of $0.51 per diluted share.

Second-quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA 1 was $1.4 billion, compared to an adjusted EBITDA 1 loss of $82 million in the second quarter of 2020.

https://preview.redd.it/y51fu0s5yqc71.png?width=1938&format=png&auto=webp&s=eafa5a541026d79bccf2c408dba2984b34e2ce8d

Outlook

The Company expects third-quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA2 of approximately

Hot Finished Seamless Pipes Market Overview:

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The report discusses the Hot Finished Seamless Pipes market's drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges. The research helps to identify the market growth drivers and determining how to utilize these factors as strengths. Restraints can assist readers in identifying traits that are restricting the Hot

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https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MT/arcelor-mittal-cancels-50-million-treasury-4n4ardrbi30d.html

In line with the authorisation granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders held on 8 June 2021, the Board of ArcelorMittal has decided to cancel 50 million treasury shares to keep the number of treasury shares within appropriate levels. This cancellation takes into account the shares already purchased under the US$2.2 billion share buyback announced on 29 July 2021. As a result of this cancellation, ArcelorMittal will have 982,809,772 shares in issue (compared to 1,032,809,772 before the cancellation).

If this doesn't get you bullish on MT, nothing will. This is all taken from a GS sell-side report published 7/14. Enjoy.

Here's the new steel deck.

Big increases across the board. For reference, here's my speadsheet that tracks their changes in HRC. Note how off they were initially.. they just keep bumping prices up and further out.

Here are updated MT estimates for 2021E, 2022E, and 2023E

Note: MT in $, SSAB in Skr, and Voes in Eur.

Notice 2021 numbers: EBITDA up 31%. EPS estimate going up from $8.10 to $12.15. Debt massively reduced.

MT 12m price target raised (yet again): to 40EUR from 36EUR.

The overall tone of the report can be summarized as follows: Recent upgrades have not translated to share price appreciation

Of note:

• "The reversal of the reflation trade has led to consensus upgrades going underappreciated for Mittal"
• "Expect further upside to FY21 earnings, driven by higher steel prices"
• Capital allocation and shareholder returns. We expect the company to pay out ~US$4bn in dividends (base + special) post FY21 (in 2Q FY22), but see scope for higher payout if steel prices persist at spot levels. The company introduced a new capital returns policy post the achievement of its ND target, where it expects to pay a base dividend plus at least 50% of the FCF on top of that as long as the ND/EBITDA ratio remains below 1.5x. Post the completion of the ~US$2bn of already announced share buybacks, we think the company will likely choose to pay special dividends given the rally in share prices (+40% ytd). We model 50% payout currently, but see further upside should high prices persist.
• Spot price flow-through and raw material inflation. Overall, the company sees a lag of 3-6 months due to its contract structures. As a result, the high spot prices are not expected to flow through immediately. Given the partial vertical integration in terms of IO, the higher IO prices shield the company in terms of margin pressure (see here for our commodity team's revision in IO prices). Overall, Europe and NAFTA are less sensitive to spot steel prices (due to contractual structures) vs ACIS and Brazil.

For those asking how they get their PT for MT (and other steel companies):

> Our valuation methodology for the steel companies in our coverage remains unchanged. We continue to apply EV/EBITDA multiples to 2022 estimates. How

Business Overview

Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in the United States. Their recent acquisitions of assets from ArcelorMittal and AK Steel have allowed them to vertically integrate each step of the process in steel production. From mining raw materials (pellets, metallics, coal/coke) to the steel-making process (stamping, tooling, and tubing) everything is now done in-house.

CLF’s product mix encompasses all things steel, mainly: hot-rolled, stainless & electrical, cold-rolled, coated, plate, and others. They have an industry-leading market share with automotive vehicles, which consist of predominantly trucks/suvs (82% versus 18% sedans). Their total end-market mix consists of:

• 33% is allocated to auto
• 32% is used in distributors & converters
• 24% is with infrastructure & manufacturing
• 11% in the “other” category.

The Market Opportunity

I’ve read quite a few articles comparing CLF and the steel industry to the average cyclical commodity market, but is that really the case? It’s a fools game to think that steel will have a similar correction as to what lumber prices and many other commodities have recently gone through. I will be the first to admit that the current prices of steel may not be sustainable, but the “steelmageddon” many analysts are expecting may never come. One year ago (August 2020) U.S HRC (Hot-Rolled Coil steel) pricing was at nearly $400. CLF CEO Lourenco Goncalves acknowledged the steel industry may never see those prices again.

The smaller steel-mills that have traditionally undercut prices in an attempt to gain market share have all been buried during covid or bought up by larger companies. Steel is no longer looked at as being a true commodity and demand is very robust. The auto-industry that has recently showed a slow in demand due to microchip shortages will have nowhere to go when demand picks up again, thus steel-suppliers have the upper hand.

The U.S market for steel is roughly $103 billion, but with the upcoming infrastructure bill Cleveland Cliffs is about to reap the benefits of continued tailwinds that by the looks of it will continue until at least the end of 2022. How is this cycle different than the others over the last 20-30 years? A lot has changed for CLF as a company in the last year alone, time will tell what they can do in the next 3-4.

Let’s bre

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Welkom vrienden bij dit korte werkstuk dat geen financieel advies is.

De afgelopen weken zie ik steeds vaker kreten voorbijkomen als Staalgang of Shellgang. Beide zijn een erg mooie identiteit om aan te nemen, maar vandaag zal ik mij richten op de eerste en waarom je wellicht de gang moet joinen.

Laten we bij het begin beginnen. Wat doet ArcelorMittal precies?

• ArcelorMittal is de op één na grootste staalproducent ter wereld, met een productie van 17,8 megaton staal afgelopen kwartaal.
• De onderneming is wereldwijd actief en heeft zo’n 170.000 werknemers in dienst. Waar het geen hoogovens in Nederland heeft zoals Tata Steel, zijn ze wel actief bij onze zuiderburen.
• ArcelorMittal (“AM”) is ontstaan in 2006 als het resultaat van een fusie tussen Arcelor en Mittal Steel. Familie Mittal heeft zo’n 40% van de aandelen in handen.
• AM is een “fully-integrated” staalproducent, wat inhoudt dat zij zowel het delven van ijzer, het smelten tot staal en het verschepen voor $$$ voor hun rekening nemen.

Lekker boeien. Waar zit de value?

Iedereen die niet onder een steen geleefd heeft, wat er wellicht weinig zijn op deze subreddit, weet dat de vraag naar staal en de prijs hiervan, door het dak zijn gegaan afgelopen jaar. Zo steeg de staalprijs met zo’n 80% en is de wereldwijde vraag naar staal, de Apparent Steel Consumption (“ASC”), niet te verwarren met het Amsterdams Studenten Corps, met 8,5% gestegen.

Door de hoge staalprijs hanteert AM een gemiddelde verkoopprijs van haar staal van ~EUR 1000 per ton. Met een shipment van 16,1 megaton staal afgelopen kwartaal komt dat neer op een omzet van EUR 16,4 miljard. Helemaal mooi; de helft hiervan is pure winst (EUR 8,0 miljard).

Als we vervolgens naar de financials kijken vallen de volgende dingen op:

• AM heeft een Total Revenu van EUR 63,9 miljard en een marktkapitalistatie van EUR 24,2 miljard. Minder dan de helft!
• Het afgelopen jaar heeft AM een Net Margin van 15,6% behaald, dit was toen de staalprijzen een stuk lager stonden dan momenteel
• Return on Equity bedraagt rond de 18%. Herinvesteren van kapitaal levert AM dus intern 18% rendement op.
• Het bedrijf genereert meer dan EUR 8,0 miljard free cashflow met een marktkapitalisatie van ongeveer drie keer. $$$\

Geef me een SWOT

Strength

• AM heeft als een van de eerste wereldwijde staalgiganten het greensteel certificaat in ontvangst mogen nemen. Belangrijk, maar ik ga hier nu even niet verder op in
• Omdat AM ‘fully integrated

I don’t care what happens today, this thoroughbred is set to run.

If there is a dip, I’m adding to call positions at a discount.

• Despite the challenging market environment that saw steel shipments decline in 2020 by 18.2% and a net loss of $0.7bn, the Company delivered $1.5bn of free cash flow ("FCF", net cash provided by operating activities of $4.1bn less capex of $2.4bn less dividends paid to minorities of $0.2bn)

• FY 2020 operating income of $2.1bn4,5 vs. $0.6bn operating loss4,5 in FY 2019. FY 2020 EBITDA of $4.3bn with 4Q'20 EBITDA of $1.7bn (almost double 4Q'19 level) reflecting recovering fundamentals and providing good momentum into 2021; 4Q 2020 adjusted net income18 of $0.2bn vs. adjusted net loss of $0.2bn in 3Q 2020

• The Company ended 2020 with gross debt of $12.3 billion and net debt of $6.4 billion, the lowest level since the 2006 merger, allowing the Company to transition to a new capital allocation policy prioritizing returns to shareholders

• Repositioned its North American footprint through the completed sale of ArcelorMittal USA to Cleveland Cliffs, unlocking value and significantly reducing liabilities

• Reinforced its European footprint through the agreed investment by the Italian government in ArcelorMittal Italia (expected to be deconsolidated in 1Q 2021)

• ArcelorMittal sold its first certified green steel products9 to customers in December 2020, reflecting its leadership position in technology and innovation and commitments to decarbonize

Priorities & Outlook:

• Global climate change leadership: Whilst policy support remains crucial to the development of decarbonization in the steel industry, the Company is focused on progressing towards its 2050 net zero group carbon emissions target. A range of innovative technology options are advancing, including the Group's first Smart Carbon projects (Carbalyst) to start production in Ghent, Belgium (in 2022) and first Hydrogen reduction project in Hamburg to start production (estimated 2023-2025)

• Cost advantage - New $1.0bn fixed cost reduction program in progress to ensure that a significant portion of fixed cost savings achieved during the COVID-19 crisis is sustained; expected completion by the end of 2022 (savings from a FY 2019 base)

• Strategic growth: The Company is focused on organic growth, cost improvement, product portfolio and margin enhancing projects in emerging growth markets, including: Mexico HSM project (completion expected in 2021); Brazil cold roll

• Original post by u/vitocorleone, full credit to him. Vito owns a sub r/Vitards, and consistently writes long DD’s on metal plays. Date of original: Mar. 15 2021 -

Vitards,

As promised, I did a DEEP dive and read all 327 pages of ArcelorMittal's 2020 annual report.

Many of you already know some of what I'm going to share, but others are newer here, so I'm going to give a bit of who $MT is along the way.

With that being said, here we go:

ArcelorMittal has steel-making operations in 17 countries on four continents, including 38 integrated and mini-mill steel-making facilities following the sale of ArcelorMittal USA. As of December 31, 2020, ArcelorMittal had approximately 168,000 employees.

ArcelorMittal produces a broad range of high-quality finished and semi-finished steel products ("semis"). Specifically, ArcelorMittal produces flat products, including sheet and plate, and long products, including bars, rods and structural shapes. It also produces pipes and tubes for various applications.

ArcelorMittal sells its products primarily in local markets and to a diverse range of customers in approximately 160 countries, including the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction and machinery industries. ArcelorMittal’s mining operations produce various types of mining products including iron ore lump, fines, concentrate and sinter feed, as well as coking, PCI and thermal coal for consumption at its steel-making facilities some of which are also for sale commercially outside of the Group.

As a global steel producer, the Company is able to meet the needs of different markets. Steel consumption and product requirements clearly differ between developed markets and developing markets. Steel consumption in developed economies is weighted towards flat products and a higher value-added mix, while developing markets utilize a higher proportion of long products and commodity grades. To meet these diverse needs, the Company maintains a high degree of product diversification and seeks opportunities to increase the proportion of higher value-added products in its product mix.

History and Development of the Company

ArcelorMittal results from the merger in 2007 of its predecessor companies Mittal Steel Company N.V. and Arcelor, each of which had grown through acquisitions over many years. Since its creation ArcelorMittal has experienced periods of external growth as well consolidation and deleveraging (including through divestment).

ArcelorMittal's succe

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/companies/news/arcelor-mittal-nippon-steel-to-invest-rs-1-lakh-cr-in-odisha/amp-11639749014868.html

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CLF

**GOLD

Business Overview

Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in the United States. Their recent acquisitions of assets from ArcelorMittal and AK Steel have allowed them to vertically integrate each step of the process in steel production. From mining raw materials (pellets, metallics, coal/coke) to the steel-making process (stamping, tooling, and tubing) everything is now done in-house.

CLF’s product mix encompasses all things steel, mainly: hot-rolled, stainless & electrical, cold-rolled, coated, plate, and others. They have an industry-leading market share with automotive vehicles, which consist of predominantly trucks/suvs (82% versus 18% sedans). Their total end-market mix consists of:

• 33% is allocated to auto
• 32% is used in distributors & converters
• 24% is with infrastructure & manufacturing
• 11% in the “other” category.

The Market Opportunity

I’ve read quite a few articles comparing CLF and the steel industry to the average cyclical commodity market, but is that really the case? It’s a fools game to think that steel will have a similar correction as to what lumber prices and many other commodities have recently gone through. I will be the first to admit that the current prices of steel may not be sustainable, but the “steelmageddon” many analysts are expecting may never come. One year ago (August 2020) U.S HRC (Hot-Rolled Coil steel) pricing was at nearly $400. CLF CEO Lourenco Goncalves acknowledged the steel industry may never see those prices again.

The smaller steel-mills that have traditionally undercut prices in an attempt to gain market share have all been buried during covid or bought up by larger companies. Steel is no longer looked at as being a true commodity and demand is very robust. The auto-industry that has recently showed a slow in demand due to microchip shortages will have nowhere to go when demand picks up again, thus steel-suppliers have the upper hand.

The U.S market for steel is roughly $103 billion, but with the upcoming infrastructure bill Cleveland Cliffs is about to reap the benefits of continued tailwinds that by the looks of it will continue until at least the end of 2022. How is this cycle different than the others over the last 20-30 years? A lot has changed for CLF as a company in the last year alone, time will tell what they can do in the next 3-4.

Let’s break-down the market opportunity for the company’s top 3 segments of customers.

1. Auto (33%): Reven