I run a Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH, and Democratsβ chances of holding on to the majority just rose to their highest level, 51.5%, since the New Jersey and Virginia elections last November. It looks like Republicans might get another bad break in the primaries, this time at the hands of Donald Trump. He's doing a fundraiser with Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters.
My forecast is not impressed by Masters candidacy in the general election, and it thinks he would only have a 31% chance of beating Mark Kelly. Master is polling 10% behind Kelly and has never run for office before. Now that Trump is doing an even with Masters, I imagine it's more likely than not Masters win Trump's endorsement, so I increased the odds that he is the nominee.
Masters would be a huge drop-off for the GOP compared to the current primary front-runner, Attorney General Brnovich. Brnovich has already shown he can win tough elections, winning a second term in 2018. The forecast thinks he would have a 52% chance of beating Kelly.
This is becoming a real problem for Republicans. Trump is supporting weak candidates like Herschel Walker, and perhaps deterring stronger ones from even running (GA, NH & PA come to mind). It's a difference in strategic goals among party leaders. Mitch McConnell wants to win back the Senate majority. Trump would prefer Republicans in charge, but his primary objective is to elevate loyalists and control the party, especially the Senate. I suspect the blatant refusal of over 80% of GOP Senators to support his attempts to overturn the electoral college looms large here.
The problem for the GOP is that Trump loyalists, especially those that are first-time politicians, are not the strongest candidates. If the GOP narrowly loses the Senate, he's going to be a big part of the reason why.
For the full Senate Forecast β which was more accurate at predicting the final margin in the Senate than Nate Silverβs 538 last year β click here. You can also check out how the different potential GOP nominees poll and perform in the forecast against Mark Kelly in our AZ interactive forecast.
Background
Redistricting happens every 10 years after the release of the Census data. Here's an article from the Washington Post called "Redistricting, Explained" (from 2011) that gives a good overview of the redistricting process. Note: the Washington Post is behind a metered paywall (they you a few free articles a month, so take that into consideration before clicking).
Here's a non-paywalled article from the Associated Press about how the redistricting process has gone this year. The Virginia Supreme Court approved the maps unanimously.
The Virginia Public Access Project has released a set of tools and visualizations to make it easier to learn about the new districts you are now living in, and what impact that will have on who represents you.
The final maps plus analysis for:
Bonus links:
-
Here's the page that has contains links to the three draft plans that were proposed: https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plans/
-
Here's a Twitter thread from VPAP explaining more about how to use the tools on the site. Thread [minus images and links] copied below:
>VPAP has posted exclusive analysis of statewide maps of proposed state House and Senate districts, which consultants will present to #Redistricting Commission on Monday. [Link] Follow this thread for detailed explanation of the tools found on our site. -->
>For each plan, there is a statewide map with blue/red shading for the partisan lean of the proposed districts. Purple are more competitive, based on 2016 presidential results. [Link] You can click into a district -->
>The district page shows an interactive map, which are pretty easy to navigate (have not tried on mobile). You can zoom in and explore. [Link] Below the map, you can find charts on population and demographics -->
>Charts include a breakdown of population of the district by locality
>Finally, there
... keep reading on reddit β‘
With the recent appointment of pepper to SCOTUS we no longer have a senator. I will be using the results of this poll to appoint next senator.
don't if you are cringe
I, former Senator of Virginia, Corntal, am announcing my bid for Virginia senate. Time to bring back the good ol' days.
Hello, My name is Virginia Applebaum. I am a former teacher and practicing attorney. I am also the Democratic candidate for the Special Election in Alabama State Senate District 14. (AL-14/ Shelby county, Chilton County and Bibb County). I am running to flip a red seat blue and to bring change to our state. I cannot sit back and watch the people of our state be railroaded any longer.
I will fight for investment in healthcare to ensure every Alabamian can afford to go to the doctor and can choose which doctor they want to go to. As a state Senator I will work to support federal efforts that break down walls to health coverage and allow you to find the most affordable health care that suits you and your family.
I will fight to make sure all children , whether theyβre Black, Brown, or White, first generation or fifth generation, have every opportunity to succeed in life. A childβs educational opportunity should not be determined by their zip code.
I will fight for safe neighborhoods and justice for everyone, whether youβre White, Black, or Brown, brand new to this area or your family has been here for generations.
I will fight for state policies that support small businesses and reward and empower entrepreneurs. Small businesses need tax relief so they can invest in their workforce and grow their business.
I will fight for:
Investment in small towns and rural communities
Our childrenβs futures
Small businesses and working families
I will fight against:
Wasteful spending
Corruption in Montgomery politics
Career politicians and special interests
You can learn more about my race at:
https://www.virginiaforalabama.com
https://www.facebook.com/virginiaforalabama
And you can help us flip this seat blue in July by donating here:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/applebaumvotedem
And join team Virginia to volunteer to phone bank:
after my unfortunately close races against harold in virginia hopefully the voters to the west will be a lot nicer
hopefully i can serve the people of west virginia and keep the senate bipartisan
q&a on any policy positions if your interested
HAYDEN44
-Expand Coal mining -Expand the right to own guns -Propose Tax cuts -9.25 Minimum wage -Secure the borders -Expand Medicaid and Medicare for all -Protect our environment -Fund the infrastructure -Get rid of the personal income tax
As I mentioned yesterday, I governor Shrek131 of Virginia will be using the poll results to appoint the senator, yesterdayβs resulted in a tie as such todayβs will be the runoff
Background
Redistricting happens every 10 years after the release of the Census data. Here's an article from the Washington Post called "Redistricting, Explained" (from 2011) that gives a good overview of the redistricting process. Note: the Washington Post is behind a metered paywall (they you a few free articles a month, so take that into consideration before clicking).
Here's a non-paywalled article from the Associated Press about how the redistricting process has gone this year. The Virginia Supreme Court approved the maps unanimously.
The Virginia Public Access Project has released a set of tools and visualizations to make it easier to learn about the new districts you are now living in, and what impact that will have on who represents you.
The final maps plus analysis for:
Bonus links:
-
Here's the page that has contains links to the three draft plans that were proposed: https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plans/
-
Here's a Twitter thread from VPAP explaining more about how to use the tools on the site. Thread [minus images and links] copied below:
>VPAP has posted exclusive analysis of statewide maps of proposed state House and Senate districts, which consultants will present to #Redistricting Commission on Monday. [Link] Follow this thread for detailed explanation of the tools found on our site. -->
>For each plan, there is a statewide map with blue/red shading for the partisan lean of the proposed districts. Purple are more competitive, based on 2016 presidential results. [Link] You can click into a district -->
>The district page shows an interactive map, which are pretty easy to navigate (have not tried on mobile). You can zoom in and explore. [Link] Below the map, you can find charts on population and demographics -->
>Charts include a breakdown of population of the district by locality
>Finally, there
... keep reading on reddit β‘I run a Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH, and Democratsβ chances of holding on to the majority just rose to their highest level, 51.5%, since the New Jersey and Virginia elections last November. It looks like Republicans might get another bad break in the primaries, this time at the hands of Donald Trump. He's doing a fundraiser with Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters.
My forecast is not impressed by Masters candidacy in the general election, and it thinks he would only have a 31% chance of beating Mark Kelly. Master is polling 10% behind Kelly and has never run for office before. Now that Trump is doing an even with Masters, I imagine it's more likely than not Masters win Trump's endorsement, so I increased the odds that he is the nominee.
Masters would be a huge drop-off for the GOP compared to the current primary front-runner, Attorney General Brnovich. Brnovich has already shown he can win tough elections, winning a second term in 2018. The forecast thinks he would have a 52% chance of beating Kelly.
This is becoming a real problem for Republicans. Trump is supporting weak candidates like Herschel Walker, and perhaps deterring stronger ones from even running (GA, NH & PA come to mind). It's a difference in strategic goals among party leaders. Mitch McConnell wants to win back the Senate majority. Trump would prefer Republicans in charge, but his primary objective is to elevate loyalists and control the party, especially the Senate. I suspect the blatant refusal of over 80% of GOP Senators to support his attempts to overturn the electoral college looms large here.
The problem for the GOP is that Trump loyalists, especially those that are first-time politicians, are not the strongest candidates. If the GOP narrowly loses the Senate, he's going to be a big part of the reason why.
For the full Senate Forecast β which was more accurate at predicting the final margin in the Senate than Nate Silverβs 538 last year β click here. You can also check out how the different potential GOP nominees poll and perform in the forecast against Mark Kelly in our AZ interactive forecast.
Background
Redistricting happens every 10 years after the release of the Census data. Here's an article from the Washington Post called "Redistricting, Explained" (from 2011) that gives a good overview of the redistricting process. Note: the Washington Post is behind a metered paywall (they you a few free articles a month, so take that into consideration before clicking).
Here's a non-paywalled article from the Associated Press about how the redistricting process has gone this year. The Virginia Supreme Court approved the maps unanimously.
The Virginia Public Access Project has released a set of tools and visualizations to make it easier to learn about the new districts you are now living in, and what impact that will have on who represents you.
The final maps plus analysis for:
Bonus links:
-
Here's the page that has contains links to the three draft plans that were proposed: https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plans/
-
Here's a Twitter thread from VPAP explaining more about how to use the tools on the site. Thread [minus images and links] copied below:
>VPAP has posted exclusive analysis of statewide maps of proposed state House and Senate districts, which consultants will present to #Redistricting Commission on Monday. [Link] Follow this thread for detailed explanation of the tools found on our site. -->
>For each plan, there is a statewide map with blue/red shading for the partisan lean of the proposed districts. Purple are more competitive, based on 2016 presidential results. [Link] You can click into a district -->
>The district page shows an interactive map, which are pretty easy to navigate (have not tried on mobile). You can zoom in and explore. [Link] Below the map, you can find charts on population and demographics -->
>Charts include a breakdown of population of the district by locality
>Finally, there
... keep reading on reddit β‘