>[...] when it appeared that patients were 10 or 15 minutes away from death, he saw physicians hold a funnel about an inch away from their faces into which oxygen was bubbled from a low-pressure tank. While the young physician noted no benefit from this last-ditch effort, it got him thinking about whether oxygen could be effective with higher concentrations. - How the 1918 Flu Pandemic Helped Shape Respiratory Care, https://www.aarc.org/nn18-how-1918-flu-pandemic-helped-shape-respiratory-care/
I think the main thing to keep in mind when comparing COVID-19 to the 1918‘s H1N1 Influenza Pandemic is the quality of health care, specifically of serious and intensive respiratory care. Oxygen therapy was barely used by 1918 and definitely not effectively, and obviously we were also years away from mechanical ventilators, intubation and ECMO. Also antibiotics and antivirals were not invented so couldn’t be used against the virus or any nosocomial co-infections like Staph. A. just to name a couple other factor that drastically change critical care. EDIT: Forgot to mention the lack of many vaccines: TB was responsible for about 1/6 deaths in France in the early 20th century and also you can’t forget about seasonal Influenza, so that would add to the deaths from nosocomial or co-infections.
With that in mind, based on information from WHO and Italy, COVID has a serious & critical case meaning an oxygen treatment rate of around 20%+ (perhaps closer to 50% in Italy, since they have over 11% just in critical care). This would indicate that in the context of 1918, many of these cases would have simply died due to the lack of this vital treatment and some of the other factors mentioned, which lead to my conclusion of a potential CFR of 20% if COVID had caused a pandemic in 1918.
EDIT: Verified sources for my other claims
https://cn.nytimes.com/health/20200305/coronavirus-china-aylward/dual/: 80% mild to moderate cases are defined as not requiring oxygen or ventilation according to the head of the WHO Wuhan team.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf: ‘About a quarter of severe and critical cases require mechanical
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History Impossible just dropped a massive episode covering the so-called Spanish flu and its effects on the losing side of the Great War. Tl;dl: It wasn't good.
https://www.historyimpossible.com/podcast/episode/634f5017/pandemic-rendering-a-hue-and-cry
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html?referringSource=articleShare
When I was young, I never heard stories about the Spanish Flu. The big thing was polio. The closest thing I can remember is stories of the soldiers returning from WWI and bring back all kinds of sickness and infection that we hadn't seen before. It was just seen as an after affect of the war. (My grandfather fought in WWI.) But no mention of the Spanish Flu in particular or a pandemic or the need to wear masks in public.
I was just wondering if any other oldies here remember hearing about the Spanish Flu pandemic.
Since the start of the COVID pandemic, there has been talk about the short and long term changes bring to society. Where there any discussions like that during the Spanish Flu pandemic? And if there were any, what were the long term societal changes that resulted from the pandemic in its aftermath?
Officials went ahead with the Liberty Loan parade in the face of an influenza epidemic that already had ravaged New England and was gaining traction at the Philadelphia Navy Yard and elsewhere in the city.
It proved to be a grave mistake.
The parade became an opportunity for mass infection. Within days, influenza had become so widespread that Philadelphia and state officials essentially shuttered the city. By the third week of October influenza, or "the grippe" as it was called by many, had afflicted tens of thousands of people and claimed the lives of more than 4,500 Philadelphians.
Few American cities were hit harder.
https://www.phillyvoice.com/100-years-ago-spanish-flu-philadelphia-killed-thousands-influenza-epidemic-libery-loan-parade/
Read about this incredibly odd factoid and decided to look into it. I was surprised to find what is an incredibly strange history following Toronto championships.
NHL: In 1918, the Toronto Arenas won their first Stanley Cup. They remained defending champions an extra year as the 1919 Stanley Cup finals were cancelled mid-series due to the Spanish Flu outbreak.
MLB: In 1992 and 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays went back-to-back to win the city's first baseball championships. They remained defending champions an extra year as the 1994 World Series was canceled resulting from the MLB's infamous strike.
NBA: The Toronto Raptors are now defending champions after winning the city's first NBA championship in 2019. The future of the 2020 finals is in question as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Will we see a champion crowned in 2020?
Bonus: While the Toronto Arenas' only Stanley Cup came in 1918, the city's first official hockey title came when the Toronto Hockey Club (aka Toronto Blueshirts) won the Challenge Cup in March 1914.
World War I kicked off four months later. Additionally, the Blueshirts never technically lost their title as the NHA folded into the NHL and the Challenge Cup became defunct.
Hi Reddit, I’m Laura Spinney. My most recent book, PALE RIDER, was published two years ago to mark the centenary of another pandemic, the so-called “Spanish” flu of 1918. Thanks for tuning in…
The reason I wrote PALE RIDER is because people seemed to have forgotten the worst catastrophe of the 20th Century. On current estimates, the 1918 pandemic killed between 50 and 100 million people – that’s more than either world war and possibly more than both put together. Oddly, two years on from the book’s publication, people can’t stop talking about that 102-year-old pandemic… It’s as if Covid-19 revived a memory that lay dormant in us.
The book explores the 1918 pandemic in all its human tragedy and global impact, along with its long-lasting consequences – whether those were scientific, political, artistic, or once again, human. There are still many unanswered questions about the 1918 flu, but I’m excited to talk about both those and the ones we do have answers for...
You can read more about PALE RIDER here. The book got positively reviewed all over the place and it’s attracting attention again now, because of the obvious historical parallels with the Covid-19 pandemic.
As for me, I’m a science journalist, non-fiction writer and novelist based in Paris, France. A lot of my work on the Covid-19 pandemic is published at The Guardian. You can find me on Twitter at @lfspinney.
Proof: https://i.redd.it/y4jxgzafjtr41.jpg
Grandpop was a Sicilian immigrant living in the New York City. During the most devastating time, he was part of a Presbyterian outreach group that went door to door checking on people. They had to go into apartments and take ill people to "the infirmary" or remove those who passed.
He said if someone caught the Spanish flu, they might be symptom free in the morning but passed away by night. Grandpop DID get sick though my Nanna said he was never as strong.
Read about this incredibly odd factoid and decided to look into it. I was surprised to see the incredibly alarming history following Toronto championships.
NHL: In 1918, the Toronto Arenas won their first Stanley Cup. They remained defending champions an extra year as the 1919 Stanley Cup finals were cancelled mid-series due to the Spanish Flu outbreak.
MLB: In 1992 and 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays went back-to-back to win the city's first baseball championships. They remained defending champions an extra year as the 1994 World Series was canceled resulting from the MLB's infamous strike.
NBA: The Toronto Raptors are now defending champions after winning the city's first NBA championship in 2019. The future of the 2020 finals is in question as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Will we see a champion crowned in 2020?
Bonus: While the Toronto Arenas' only Stanley Cup came in 1918, the city's first official hockey title came when the Toronto Hockey Club (aka Toronto Blueshirts) won the Challenge Cup in March 1914. World War I kicked off four months later. Additionally, the Blueshirts never technically lost their title as the NHA folded into the NHL and the Challenge Cup became defunct.
