I am writing this post in response to this other post, in which someone attempted to model the exit wave with a simple logistic fit: https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/pxsdby/when_will_the_current_wave_end_and_can_our/

For some background, I made a comment criticising that here: https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/pxsdby/when_will_the_current_wave_end_and_can_our/hepnmg0/

Here, I am going to show why epidemiology forecasting, or data analysis in general, isn't so simple, and how easy it is to lie with fancy statistics. I am not insinuating anything, and I actually very much believe that the original poster had the best of intentions. However, the projections simply do not make sense. I break this down into two parts below.

Part 1: Doing the fit again, but with actual uncertainties

Here, I use a statistical model where I assume the data is a simple logistic curve, with daily fluctuations modelled as a gaussian where the standard deviation depends linearly on the true parameter value of the day; essentially, a percentage error on the measurement. The reason why I do this instead of simply using a Poisson distribution is that the daily fluctuation greatly exceeds what one would expect due to a Poisson, and instead appears to be driven by more complex factors, including a weekly variation component. The parameters, aside from this fluctuation parameter, are all the same as the original, so I will not go into things in detail here. The model is fit using a bayesian nested sampling method.

Here is the fit:

https://preview.redd.it/nz7i6qkdqiq71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=6161bc349b30ac685b68adb9970d7e18ee15ae6d

In this plot, the red shows the uncertainty in the actual fit, and the green shows the expected amount of statistical fluctuation. Looks like the uncertainties are much much wider than the estimate provided in the original! However, it looks like we still have a fit, of sorts; let us proceed to extract a projection out of this. After all, it is still better than nothing, right? Using the Monte Carlo samples from the nested sampling, we can find a distribution for where we can expect the turning point to be.

Here is that distribution:

https://preview.redd.it/m56owxyfqiq71.png?width=770&fo

FALSEHOOD using biased statistical sample of only the sickest children that were brought to the hospital: children face 22.9% chance of ICU admission from Covid, and 3.6% chance of death.

TRUTH using proper statistical analysis by the world-renowned John Ioannidis: only 0.0027% of children die to Covid. That's 3 in 100k (and such deaths are in those with serious pre-existing health conditions).

Singapore's Ministry of Health exaggerated the statistic by 1000 times.

To deceive parents into subjecting their children to experimental injections confirmed to have around 1 in 5000 chance of causing serious heart damage (myocarditis). And zero data on long-term effects.

blatant misinformation

study quoted that used a biased sample of the sickest children that were brought to the hospital (https://adc.bmj.com/content/106/5/440)

proper statistics by world-renowned Professor John Ioannidis

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v1.full-text

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91f0015m/91f0015m2021002-eng.htm

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-status-age-discrimination.html

> Recent data from the U.K. illustrate the phenomenon neatly: unvaccinated children are safer from COVID-19 death than vaccinated adults of any age

/r/worldnews

https://www.randrlife.co.uk/singapore-has-chosen-to-live-with-covid-19-like-the-flu-without-quarantine-texts-or-daily-statistics/

Lewis Hamilton

-69th ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) win for Hamilton

-4th win for Hamilton in Singapore

-79th pole position for Hamilton

-4th pole position for Hamilton in Singapore

-129th podium for Hamilton

-6th podium for Hamilton in Singapore

-127th first row for Hamilton

Max Verstappen

-17th podium for Verstappen surpassing Phil Hill

-1st podium for Verstappen in Singapore

-4th first row for Verstappen surpassing the likes of Karl Kling, Pedro Rodriguez, Teo Fabi, François Cevert and Jean-Pierre Jarier

-2nd first row for Verstappen in Singapore

-Verstappen has now beaten Ricciardo 9 times in a row in qualifying

-75th Grand Prix for Verstappen

Sebastian Vettel

-108th podium for Vettel

-7th podium for Vettel in Singapore

Kimi Räikkönen

-Räikkönen is now in top 15 of lead by kilometers (6376) surpassing Stirling Moss (6369)

-Räikkönen has now collected 1000 points for Ferrari

-1st P5 for Räikkönen this season

Fernando Alonso

-Alonso has scored 1899 points in his career

-10th time Alonso starts from P11

Carlos Sainz

-75th Grand Prix for Sainz

Nico Hülkenberg

-150th Grand Prix for Hülkenberg surpassing René Arnoux

Stoffel Vandoorne

-Vandoorne's most common finish is P12 (8th time)

Pierre Gasly

-Gasly's most common finish is P13 (4th time)

-Last time Gasly started P15 was 2017 Malaysian Grand Prix

Lance Stroll

-Stroll's most common finish is P14 (6th time)

Sergio Perez

-1st time Perez doesn't score points in Singapore

-1st time Perez starts top 10 in Singapore

Brendon Hartley

-Last time Hartley started P17 was 2017 Mexican Grand Prix

Kevin Magnussen

-1st fastest lap for Magnussen. 1st fastest lap for Haas

-Worst finish in Magnussen's career (P18)

-75th Grand Prix for Magnussen

Sergey Sirotkin

-Sirotkin has never started P20 in this season despite driving Williams

-Worst finish in Sirotkin's career (P19)

Esteban Ocon

-Ocon's most common starting position is P9 (5th time)

-5th DNF for Ocon

Was reading the comments people mocking the sampling done in the other threads and it made me wonder. People might become more aware of condifence intervals, outlier effects, regression to mean, gamblers fallacy, etc.

I am a stats grad and I am currently working as a temporary project officer to my fyp professor working on computational modelling and data analytics in bioinformatics (have been working in this area for 2 years from undergrad). He highly advised me to go to grad school (phd) after I graduate during every weekly meeting. However, I find research is not for me at the moment and am more interested in venturing into the job market working in other areas of statistics and data analytics and then consider grad school (likely masters) in the future. I heard the job market sentiment now is bleak but what are experiences have you guys have/heard about with getting which types of jobs with just a bachelor's in stats? Many thanks!

EDITED: Thanks and really appreciate everyone for the advice! Just a quick question as well, are there any potential cost-benefit between a first job in the government sector and a first job in the private sector?

Intel Extreme Masters: Singapore EU Qualifier Stage 3 - 19:00PM CET, 25/10/12, 2012.

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Qualifier Mega-Graphic - CHECK OUT FOR BRACKETS/STATISTICS http://i.imgur.com/whVtR.jpg

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Tonight we shall find out who the first players will be advancing on to participate in the Intel Extreme Masters: Singapore for Season VII. After Mvp brought his new flare of Mech to Gamescom, the Europeans are eager to prove themselves in the arena of battle, as 5 victorious warriors will advance on to the main tournament in Singapore.

• Intel Extreme Masters: The Journey Continues Trailer
• Thank you to our sponsors Intel, BenQ and Patriot
• TLPD Page
• DOUBLE ELIM BRACKETS
• Join the TL discussion

List Of Tonight's Participants;

• (P) mouz.HasuObs - @mouzHasuObs
• (P) RoXKIS.TitaN - @OlegKuptsov
• (P) XMG.monchi - @monchiSC2
• (P) Tt.WhiteRa - @WhiteRaSC
• (P) Grubby - @FollowGrubby
• (P) PandaTank - N/A
• (P) Ai.Tarra - @Tarrantius
• (T) M.DieStar - @MDieStar
• (T) aTn.ClouD - @ClouDSC2
• (T) WF.KrasS - N/A
• (T) Fnatic.Naama - @NaamaSC2
• (Z) VPBenQ.sLivko - @VPBenQsLivko
• (Z) Karont3.VortiX - @Karont3_VortiX

So, a little bit of a background on me, I am a 19 year old guy from India. I am currently doing an Economics major from the most prestigious university that my country has to offer, and I also have an above average Cgpa( currently doing my 2nd year, out of 3 years). However, due to the country’s extremely low minimum wage, companies can get away with paying extremely low salaries to fresh graduates, around 3000 GBP a year, which is not nearly enough to survive in a big city. Because of this I was planning on doing a masters in the uk as soon as I graduate. The few options I was looking at were an Ms in business analytics, an ms in statistics and a masters in economics. I have interests and knowledge about all 3 fields, but I am a little confused as to which one I should go for and since I am being raised by a single mother, I don’t like to put anymore stress on her than I have to, so I would also prefer if you guys could give me advice on the employability options available. Thanks.

Let's talk wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE)!

WBE uses wastewater (aka, sewage) sampling to track public health at a population level with geographic specificity. While it has been around for decades, wastewater surveillance really entered primetime as a tool for tracking the spread of COVID-19. By detecting cases before symptoms emerge, wastewater surveillance can act as an early warning system for outbreaks and even variant detection, helping local organizations and governments keep ahead of the curve.

In the U.S., the CDC and HHS created the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) to monitor community spread. Similar efforts have cropped up around the world including the Sewage Analysis CORe group Europe (SCORE) and the Global Water Pathogen Project (GWPP). Many of the resulting studies can be visualized using the COVID-19 WBE Publication Map.

At this point, you may be wondering: How on earth can scientists detect trace amounts of a virus in municipal wastewater? The average American uses approx. 82 gallons of water at home every day! Despite this volume, tools like Droplet Digital PCR allows scientists to detect one infected individual in 10,000, as many as six days before they would test positive via a nasal swab.

There are so many more techniques, programs, and applications (incl. tracking other infectious diseases, drug use, etc.) possible with WBE. We can speak to topics such as:

• The history of wastewater testing and how wastewater surveillance works
• How wastewater surveillance has helped track COVID-19 outbreaks
• The technology that makes it possible, including ddPCR
• The overall research landscape surrounding WBE and its future applications
• Other general questions about WBE challenges, science policy, infrastructure, overall execution, and beyond

Feel free to start sharing your questions below.

I don't want to step on anybody's toes here, but the amount of non-dad jokes here in this subreddit really annoys me. First of all, dad jokes CAN be NSFW, it clearly says so in the sub rules. Secondly, it doesn't automatically make it a dad joke if it's from a conversation between you and your child. Most importantly, the jokes that your CHILDREN tell YOU are not dad jokes. The point of a dad joke is that it's so cheesy only a dad who's trying to be funny would make such a joke. That's it. They are stupid plays on words, lame puns and so on. There has to be a clever pun or wordplay for it to be considered a dad joke.

Again, to all the fellow dads, I apologise if I'm sounding too harsh. But I just needed to get it off my chest.

I've been following nano for almost a year now and joined this reddit community around 6 months ago. And I've been following the news very closely surrounding Nano on YouTube. linkedin, twitter and reddit :)

If I may just sum up the major positive events/news/rumours that happened this year:

1. CEO of Razer (Tan Min Liang) got to know about Nano through Twitter, and approached the Nano team for further queries. However, no further updates on either sides, probably nothing. I'm hopeful that this will eventually amount to something.
2. Ken (Aka 'Chicken Genius Singapore' on YouTube) went all-in (almost) into Nano. Being a fundamental investor with rock-solid investment returns thus far in Tesla, he is super bullish on Nano. He has a video with Colin as well!
3. Matthew Weathers (a Math Professor YouTuber who went viral with his 'fixing a projector screen' video) being hopeful that Nano will succeed because of its technical merits compared to other crypto currencies.
4. 2Miners started its payouts in Nano. Shoutout to Zergtoshi for posting the daily statistics for 2Miners payouts :) IMO, this is the first major use case that is currently happening at the moment.
5. Nano Foundation started filming for a marketing video in November. Due to be released before Christmas, but it got delayed. Is the Nano Foundation waiting for a more apt time to release the video? Also, are there more videos in the works?
6. CEO of Flowhub (Kyle Sherman) was onboarded as an advisor to the Nano Foundation. My speculative guess is, Flowhub is planning to integrate Nano into their payment solutions. I'm actually quite confident this is going to happen, it's just a matter of when.
7. Colin and George seems to have a working relationship with Jon Hammant (Amazon UK/Ireland Head of Compute). Not sure where this will go, seems to be very speculative.
8. Nano Foundation is currently working on an 'pretty revolutionary' FX project. I'm guessing this should be linked to Andy Woolmer's New Change FX?
9. Kappture released a video recently to show how their POS system works. Featured Nano in the video, thereby indicating their POS will accept Nano in the future? Also, will Flowhub actually use Kappture that accepts Nano?

Nano's current advisory board

1. Deepa Mardolkar: Former Amazon GM of 'Incentives, Gift Cards and Top Ups' for Europe.
2. Andy Woolmer: CEO of New Change FX.
3. Kyle Sherman: CEO of Flowhub.

Just wondering, what are your thoughts on the upcoming projects/partnerships,

I am just curious because i cant seem to figure it out until I am in a relationship.

Update: the author David Bogert has replied to me on Facebook with an insult

Update 2: The author as of 25/12/21 edited the 'Ammonia in depth' page and made several changes (yet again) to his calculations to push his agenda that ammonia is not really toxic at all to fishes. This is an archived copy, showing that he used a pH of 7 and a temperature of 28-30 degrees C (which wasn't made clear and I pointed it out in this post) that has a unionized ammonia value of 0.747% which requires the multiplication of 134(100/0.747) to get the total ammonia level. In his new edit, he has made clear the temperature used to get his calculations, BUT has changed it so drastically (from 29 to 25 degrees C), which results in the multiplication value of 177(100/0.566). What this means is that he can artificially increase the total ammonia concentration compared to his previous calculations to push his agenda that ammonia isn't at all toxic to fishes. Talk about being disingenuous.

Update 3: The author has added a long section on his frontpage as a response to my post (not sure if I should feel honoured). Claims that his website is now based on "logic" and Science as opposed to purely science before the edit, and thus do not require citations on bold claims. Also changed his tone from "I am an expert on doing literature searches, data analysis, statistics and on the design of experiments, I also have tons of aquariums, so I am an expert enough to produce 350 articles on ALL aspects of fishkeeping" to "nobody can be a true expert in all aspects of fishkeeping". The author has also added a small portion to address my concerns about his inconsistent bottled bacteria experiment, which had two different conditions (phosphate vs no phosphate) for a simple goal of testing if bottled bacteria actually works. He now also claims that the data was statistically supported by reputable software, but in his old article mentioned nothing about that. He also claims that there are no other experiments that confirms the opposite of his experiment which makes his irrefutably true and accurate even given the faulty experimental design. He forgets that his conclusion is that all bottled bacteria do not speed up the cycling of an aquarium, but goes on to contradict himself by saying that Dr Tim's did have a positive effect. He also claims that the "Three re

Never heard of this channel before, but they are verified and have 3.9 Million subs. They appear to be on episode 2, english subs and everything. Kamen Rider Zero One : Episode 2 I ENG Captions - YouTube

Do your worst!

I'm surprised it hasn't decade.