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Most people who voted for Labour in 2017 and Liberal Democrat in 2019 in this by-election were voting for tactical reasons. Yes, some defected because their position changing, but consider this:
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Let's say you're a Labour supporter/member, and you want to kick out a Conservative who has been done for expenses fraud in a seat where Labour hasn't won since 1973. Your best option to do so is to vote for the Liberal Democrats, because you get rid of the Tory, and you open the way to a potential general election where your party could win more seats nationally rather than the one you're in. I certainly would.
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Brecon and Radnashire (for the last 5 decades) has always been a Lib/Con marginal, and the fact that this place voted Leave in 2016 and yet a Liberal Democrat surged and won it is a pretty impressive feat, even with tactical voting going on.
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The Conservatives lost - this is the main story, which has reduced their majority to 1. They will lose that if just a single Tory defects (and there's speculation it could be Phillip Lee) and there have been rumours that as many as 5 could potentialy defect. Scary stuff for the Conservatives.
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The Brexit Party did worse than expected, but still cost the Conservatives the seat, which will tear apart Conservative majorities at the next General Election if they can keep up their steam. This acts as a Government blocker for any future Conservative PM.
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General Election prediction? It'll definetely come this year, probably in mid September/early October.
Which way do you think it's going to go?
Adam Price is politically right to call for a liberal coalition to fight it along Brexit lines, but then again he would say that because his party came nowhere in 2017. The Tories won by 8,000 in 2017 from the Lib Dems (20,000 vs. 12,000. Plaid only got 1,200), when Chris Davies shot up 7.5% and hoovered up Peter Gilbert's UKIP vote.
I suppose it's all down to how many people are pissed off about dodgy invoicing. It'd be foolish for him to fight it along Brexit lines. Too close for me, this one. It's Wales, and traditional Tory loyalties are held far more loosely, so they might get the necessary exodus from the 8,000. I wonder how many Labour Remain voters will vote Lib Dem though. A fair amount I should imagine.
I'm not sure how Adam Price sees this 'liberal coalition' working out. Constituency coalitions (without a similair wider national campaign) are a load of bollocks because only one person holds power when elected - the MP. I think the Lib Dems will probably tell Plaid to shove their 1,000 votes up their arse, because they should be able to do this on their own campaigning.
My obvious hope is that the Brexit Party gets in - the bookies have them a close second to the Lib Dems - but as is so often the case, it'll all come down to their candidate. I have no idea who's standing, or if they're mental.
Source - http://democraticdashboard.com/constituency/brecon-and-radnorshire
Edit: A word
