I am registering to vote for the first time and am not sure what my assembly constituency is. I tried searching a lot to see if there's anyway I can find my AC, but didn't find any.
Yes, I can ask my folks and did that, but shouldn't there be a website where one should be able to search that? By either their pincode or area or something?
Is there such a website?
I couldn't find a post or a tweet on this, so let's do it the old fashioned way with a text post. Alongside the Mayoral headline that was posted earlier they also asked about the Assembly.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/yf4kwp7gmh/QMUL_Results_MayoralVI_210401.pdf
Seat projection (changes from 2016):
Lab: 12 (-)
Con: 7 (-1)
Green: 3 (+1)
LD: 3 (+2)
UKIP: 0 (-2)
Reminder that the electoral system in London for the assembly is 14 constituencies based on FPTP and 11 list seats allocated via a modified d'Hondt method of closed list with a minimum limit of 5%.
What does this mean in practice? The 14 constituency seats in 2016 were wont 9 by Lab and 5 by Con.
Of the 5 that were won by Con last time around one was won by 20+%pts, two were won by 10%pts, one was won by 6%pts and one was close (<1%pt - this had 15% UKIP vote last time, so it is probably not going to go red).
Of the 9 that were won by Lab last time around one was won by 1.5%pt, one by 9%pt and the rest by a country mile.
Ignore those 14 - they are going to stay like that or be marginally different. Each one that Lab/Con gain/lose here they get back straight away in the list vote.
For the list vote they take into account the number of seats won already (similar to Scotland), but they also have a floor of 5% to get a seat. So that rules out Reform UK.
What is interesting this time is that the lack of UKIP hurts Labour and Con. Last time around the Greens and UKIP got two list each and LD a fifth. By my reckoning the Greens and LDs on this polling (11 each) will get 3 each taking one from Labour. Labour are on the edge of picking up the last of the 11 from the Conservatives. Winning one more or fewer in the constituency will not make any difference, they'll just lose or win it back here:
What the parties need to do to win more seats:
Lab: maintain 14%pt lead over the Cons or get more than 4x the vote of the Greens or LDs.
Con: Reduce the lead of Lab to under 14%pts to get up to 9 and under 7%pts to get 10. Have a lead of greater than 3x the LD or Green numbers will give them one more.
LD/Greens: Stay more than 1/4 of Lab or 1/3 of Con. If not whichever gets ahead of the other gets 3 and the other gets 2. Both drop too low and they end up with 2 each and an extra for Lab and Con.
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