The "Nifty Or Thrifty" article series takes a comprehensive look at the meta for PvP Cup formats: Sinnoh Cup, in this case. As is typical for the NoT series, I'll cover not only the top meta picks, but also some mons where you can save some dust with cheaper second move unlock costs and/or leveling up! Because for those on a stardust budget — and/or folks trying to save up some dust for the future — it can be daunting trying to figure out where to spend or not spend it. We all want to field competitive teams, but where can we get the best bang for our buck and where should we perhaps channel our inner scrooge?

A quick reminder of what Sinnoh Cup is:

• Great League, 1500 CP Limit

• Only Pokémon with a Pokédex number from #387 to #493 will be allowed.

As I try to usually do, I will start with those with the cheapest second move unlock cost and steam ahead until we finally arrive at the expensive Legendaries. I do try and put extra emphasis on the thriftier stuff, especially for formats like this where you may not use some of these things much in the future. (For a rough guide to reusability, though, I will rank things with ♻️s, with three being solid in other Great League formats, two being okay in at least certain Cup formats, and only one being something that, honestly, you're unlikely to use again.) Thankfully there are a lot of great options among the 10,000 and 50,000 categories, so let's get to it!

10,000 Dust/25 Candy

LUCARIO (Baby Discount™) ♻️♻️

Counter | Power-Up Punch & Shadow Ball/Close Combat

I know, the temptation is great to run double bombs with something like Close Combat and Shadow Ball. And that's not "wrong", per se, here's the thing: Luc does a ton of work with just Counter and Power-Up Punch (even against the entirety of Sinnoh Pokémon), taking down all Normals, Steels, and Rocks in the format except Mud Slap Rhyperior, plus every Ice but Froslass and every Dark except for Spiritomb. Oh, and thanks to its Steel subtyping, it can outlast Tangrowth and most other Grasses too. And again... that's all just with little Power-Up Punch. So the question then becomes: what closer to use? Both Close Combat and [Shadow Ball](https://pvpoke.com/battle/mult

Meta-Analysis Am J Epidemiol

doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu257.

Association between dietary fiber and lower risk of all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of cohort studies

PMID: 25552267 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu257

Abstract

Although in vitro and in vivo experiments have suggested that dietary fiber might have beneficial effects on health, results on the association between fiber intake and all-cause mortality in epidemiologic studies have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to quantitatively assess this association. Pertinent studies were identified by searching articles in PubMed and Web of Knowledge through May 2014 and reviewing the reference lists of the retrieved articles. Study-specific risk estimates were combined using random-effects models. Seventeen prospective studies (1997-2014) that had a total of 67,260 deaths and 982,411 cohort members were included. When comparing persons with dietary fiber intakes in the top tertile with persons whose intakes were in the bottom tertile, we found a statistically significant inverse association between fiber intake and all-cause mortality, with an overall relative risk of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.80, 0.87; I(2) = 41.2%). There was a 10% reduction in risk for per each 10-g/day increase in fiber intake (relative risk = 0.90; 95% confidence interval: 0.86, 0.94; I(2) = 77.2%). The combined estimate was robust across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. No publication bias was detected. A higher dietary fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk of death. These findings suggest that fiber intake may offer a potential public health benefit in reducing all-cause mortality.

Keywords: diet; fiber intake; meta-analysis; mortality; prospective studies.

I found a quite common narrative in the community, that the meta of AoE would be boring, that (pro-)games were all the time the same, often times referring to Archer-plays. More generally, many claim that the meta of AoE is figured out or claim to know what the meta is. I was under the impression though that the meta of AoE is not really figured out and that it varies a bit with every civ-matchup and dependend on the map, which contributes in my eyes a lot to the beauty of the game. I think that you have to make "new" decisions every game and you end up very rarely in situations where you just mindlessly execute a known pattern.

To get a clearer picture of what's the meta and how stalemate and figured out it actually is, I took an in-depth look on the KotD4 quarter-finals from last weekend. I noted every opening, every Feudal-Age-follow-up and then also the Castle Age approaches of the players.

Results

All games of the King of the Desert 4 quarterfinals.

Explanation of the used colours.

Findings

• In general, there are many different options. In 21 games, we had basically 8 different openings while none of these appeared more than 10 times (= 24%). Also, that covers almost everything that theoretically can happen. The things we didn't see are a straight-up Stable-Range-opening (not a strat bc unaffordable), a TC-Douche, a no-army Tower-Rush (but we did see towers) and Eagle-openings. Mass-militia or continuing M@A-production are not a thing either.
• The most popular opening was actually something that is kinda new and wasn't meta at all before the tournament: 2-Militia-Drush was pretty dominant and got a lots of wins (lost only in the very uneven matchup between Lierrey and Sitaux + when the player was behind in Dark Age due to losing starting ressources). That is a big indication for a lively meta, which is not figured out yet.
• There is the obvious and expected tendency that Barracks dominate the openings and Ranges dominate the rest of Feudal Age. Still, they are far from being without alternative: Barracks-openings happened 21 times, so it was exactly 50/50 ^((with 2 out of 21 being a Spear-opening to counter Scouts))**. Ranges in Feudal Age occured 33 times, which is a

Disclaimer

Firstly, I wasn't entirely sure whether or not I should reserve this post for Theorymon Thursday, since this is going to be both a discussion about the way Stealth Rock is currently designed and theorycrafting about ways to change it (or rather, coming up with alternate versions, as you'll see later). I opted to wait until Thursday to post it, just to be safe. If you want to just skip to the theorymon stuff, it'll be towards the bottom

With that out of the the way...

Introduction

I doubt Stealth Rock needs much of an introduction. It's arguably one of, if not the most important, most impactful, most powerful moves in Pokemon. It can make certain Pokemon or even entire strategies borderline unviable, and its presence alone can completely change the way the game is played.

Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of Stealth Rock, at least in its current form. I don't dislike the idea of a type-based entry hazard—in fact, it's actually a pretty cool idea, and one that has a lot of room for experimentation and interesting uses. My issue predominantly comes from what type was used for it.

I'm aware that using a personal grievance to justify changing a move like Stealth Rock is questionable at best, but I have the means to justify my claim and show why Stealth Rock being Rock-type was... less than optimal, to say the least.

You're Just Not My Type

With Stealth Rock dealing a whopping 25% damage to Flying-, Fire-, Bug-, and Ice-types (ignoring any potential type combinations), the question eventually becomes, "Are these types powerful enough to warrant such a damage penalty?" I want to examine these types individually to determine whether such an extreme handicap was necessary. I won't be looking at the types that resist Stealth Rock mostly to keep this post to a reasonable length, but also because I feel like looking at those weak to it provides enough evidence for my case.

Flying

I think out of all the types, Flying has the best case for having such an extreme damage penalty from a new entry hazard. It's outright immune to Ground-types and resists three others as well. While it's weak to three types itself, they don't come without flaws. Ground-types are immune to Electric-type attacks, making them somewhat risky to go for, and Ice-type Pokemon are uncommon due to their plethora of weaknesses, leaving most to opt for Ice-type coverage (often in the form of the weak HP Ice prior to Gen 8). This is all before factoring in the fact th

Bear with me y'all - lot of words ahead! I've read a bunch of different opinions about what motivated Tai Lung and how it fit into the wider KFP philosophy, and I thought I'd add my two cents.

IMO Tai Lung's angst lay in his identity. He was adopted by Shifu, the most senior student of the founder of Kung Fu, and raised in the Jade Palace - the very definition of privileged. Shifu raised Tai Lung like a lot of high-flying businessmen born into wealth are raised - to push themselves beyond what they should to succeed, and that their desires are guaranteed. The inner life is completely neglected, and flaws - and individuality - are not accepted. Something that isn't really touched upon is the trauma of Tai Lung's origin - he was abandoned on the steps of the Jade Palace. He only HAD the identity that was given to him, and its canon in this universe that species-only breeding occurs, so he KNOWS he's not actually Shifu's biological son.

Compare this to Po, who's in the exact same boat with his father. Except, Po isn't raised to believe he's entitled to ANYTHING - his father, a provincial goose, runs a noodle shop (food service is traditionally a working-class occupation), which presumably he's had to also work in all his life. Going a little meta also, Po's a Panda - he's biologically fatter, less athletic, a slow and pacifist species not known for being flashy or powerful at all. Tai Lung's a SNOW LEOPARD - biologically immensely strong, powerful, intelligent with sharp reflexes. These two characters have been given the same beginning, but the cards of nature and circumstance are purposefully stacked completely in Tai Lung's favour.

Which is where the nurture comes in. What do you set out your child to become? Po's Dad is loving, hard-working, and KNOWS THE SECRET OF THE DRAGON SCROLL. This part is glossed over, but the whole time Po's Dad knew the essence of the Dragon Scroll. He knew you didn't have to add anything to the soup, for people to believe. He knew, what he was, as he was, was exactly all he needed to be. KFP2 really shows Po's Dad for the kind of father he was - the father that loved their child exactly the way they were, pre-occupied that their child will not have enough food. It's a little thing, but food is a huge thing for Pandas. They're big animals, and they NEED to eat a lot to survive. You can't jerry-rig a Panda into a muscle-bound predator. Po's Dad knew Po was a Panda, and treated him like a Panda. He didn't spoil him or preten

Hello everyone. I've noticed people complain often about certain towers being "broken" and how there's nothing you can do about it. Sure, these towers often fill their niche slightly better than others, but that slight advantage is only important in high arenas, where mistakes are uncommon. Here's some tips for us mortals on the weaknesses of the meta towers.

These tips are all for lower arenas. At the cusp of BFB-ZOMG, players will stop making these mistakes.

x4x sniper: most users will rush this tower on early rounds, 13-18. Horrible idea. Take advantage of the x3x sniper's low point damage and punish them with fortified moabs, or even regrow cerams if they're being really greedy.

x3x dartling: rocket users will rush this tower and then start all out ecoing. Punish them by sending fortified moabs as soon as possible, forcing them to stop ecoing at the very least.

xx3 super: don't bother with moabs, bfbs, and zomgs as soon as your opponent gets one of these. DDTs become useless after 2-3 are placed down. Save up 30k to send an fbad as soon as possible. If they try to defend, send fortified cerams or something similar to stall their defense and let the BAD insides exit.

xx4 ninja: Try to go aggressive early-mid game and get an early win. Late game wins are possible with good fbad defense, but you'll need to play smart and have a good loadout for late game.

Tower recommendations: towers that are good but aren't widely used, starting from most viable

Boomer: Might be considered meta depending on who you ask. 402+camo detection lets you all out eco as long as you can defend early cerams and moabs. xx4 defends mid game with decent micro. Early-mid game tower.

Spact: A couple of 320s effortlessly carry mid game, and 240s shred late game with good micro and income. Mid-late game tower.

Dart: 402 with good placement shines early-mid game. 204 also works on straightaways. SMFC is somewhat viable late game. Early-mid game tower.

Druid: A very slept on tower. Base druids do well early game. xx4 druids carry mid-late game, especially with obyn. DDT damage is needed in some form however. Early, mid, and late game tower.

Tack: x3x micro can handle almost any early-mid game rush. xx5 remains a good damage option for late game. Early, mid, and late game tower.

Engi: xx3 can hold off early game rushes pretty well. xx4 provides decent mid game income. x3x is good on paper, but it's too expensive and unreliable to serve as decamo. Early-mid game tower.

Other to

I went back and reread Accelerator and Kamijou's phone call in chapter 3 of Gt5 for a vague analysis idea I've had bouncing around in the back of my head for a while, and while I was doing that I realized something I thought was interesting: Accelerator and Kamijou's phone call somewhat parallels Kamijou and Mikoto’s phone call from Gt4—But is also completely different. So I thought it might be fun to compare and contrast the two scenes, as well as compare and contrast Accelerator and Mikoto's responses and actions in the scenes, and in turn also look at how those phone calls impacted Kamijou.

*Note: As I was writing this originally short little compare/contrast analysis, I ended up having a bunch of other realizations, thoughts, and connections in regards to the story as a whole. I tried to circle back and keep everything together, but I don’t think I was all that successful. So I apologize in advance for things being sort of all over the place in the 2nd half of this analysis. (Almost 8 pages!)

Let's start with the scene from Gt4, for context Kamijou wants to see if Melzabeth Grocery's cell phone might have any clues to finding her whereabouts, but he doesn't have any way to access the phone. So he decides to call Mikoto for help to hack into it.

>“In that case…hmm, I guess I’ll have to ask her for help.”
>
>“You aren’t even trying to do this on your own, are you? Being stupid will not work out in your favor, you know?”
>
>Othinus sounded utterly exasperated while Kamijou operated a mobile device. But this was not the mother’s phone he had collected.
>
>He used his own Academy City phone to call one of the numbers in the address book.
>
>It was only a phone call, but he spoke with the world’s ugliest attempt at sounding ingratiating.
>
>“M-Misaka-shaaaan? I’d like some help from your zappy powers.”

We all know Kamijou was dumbed down to all hell in Gt4, but even ignoring his usage of "I guess I'll have to ask her for help." and that he's described as trying to sound ingratiating (an adjective that means wanting to please and sound agreeable to win a favor, for those like me who have/had no idea what the word meant. you're welcome) implies that he likely didn't want to have to call Mikoto for help, but did so because she was his only option. This next blurb implies it as well.

>It was so pathetic that Helcalia Grocery might have reflexively kicked him in the balls if she heard it so soon

RED - worst color I’d argue you can only bring one if you’re not against Ultra Gogeta and LF Trunks

YEL - good color good for mono purple teams just be careful with the Vegeta side of G/V| no reds rn so good for neutral game

PUR - likely the best color rn thanks to mono purple

GRN - Good Color , specifically zamasu Goku black assist and g4 , they’re tanky enough to survive a neutral lock in from ultra Gogeta , if you see Ultra Gogeta you need a GRN

BLU - honestly the most average color outside of Gogeta Bardock and crits and LF Trunks , you should be fine bringing a blue as long you have a powerful PUR

I’d rank it like this : 1 . PUR 2 .GRN / YEL Mid : BLU Bad : RED

Thoughts ?

As ye 1,587,879th stressed lockdowned Aucklander, obviously I have my biases, but I've noticed what I believe to be a discourse shift regarding Auckland from a "team of 5 million" to more of a "out of sight, out of mind" solution, or even worse "better them than me" thought process.

Our lockdown is front and center of our lives due to its impact, but to other kiwis, it's but a tiny footnote. The only thing they truly care about is avoiding themselves being locked down, which ironically gives less incentive to progress anything in letting Auckland out of lockdown.

It doesn't help that much of the country looks at us like plague rat lepers and screams at us that this is what we deserved for hosting MIQ for them.

Having had a brief scan of other local NZ subreddits and perusing social / print media, the general consensus appears to e that the country accepts that the border will need to come down eventually, the rest of the country likes the idea of limiting Aucklanders leaving with border checks, and helping Auckland leave lockdown is not a high priority.

For me, the biggest societal divide I see now is the majority of the country putting self interest over the well being of those they sacrificed - akin to countries feeling bad for neighbours affected by famine, war or other disasters, but still building a wall to stop refugees in hopes that the problem magically blows over.

I'm not sure how to resolve these feelings, I feel both angry, ignored and disenfranchised, but I understand how we reached this point. All this does is make me want to separate Auckland from the rest of the country in a tit for tat manner. Keep everything from our port here locked down with us.

Who knows, maybe one day the roles may be reversed. Would I be the bigger man? Be considerate of others? Whilst I would hope so, somehow I don't believe I would. Maybe time will tell in the near future.

I've noticed when people discuss sensitive topics, they avoid trying to use any kind of data or objective analysis to answer their questions and instead pick one or two accounts are treat them as representative. Isn't a few anecdotes not enough to get a full picture. Unless you can corroborate that account with a wider view?

The example in mind is a recent question about the nutrition of slaves in the US and the top answer brushed aside a previous analysis and cited Fredrick Douglas' account. I'm not doubting anything Douglas said, but isn't one account not enough to say that all slaves lived the same way?

TL;DR: Vayne, Jinx, Draven, Caitlyn, Jhin, and Ezreal can carry well. They're also picked a lot, meaning the average player ADC can carry reasonably well. However, all the rest of the ADCs appear to be struggling (but also aren't played as much).

The graph below presents further data. It shows the one-trick winrate plotted against the overall winrate. The size of each dot represents the # of games, and the color represents the ban-rate (red = more bans). It uses data from Patch 11.23; see bottom for data source. Vayne appears to be one of the strongest carry champs, and Yorick appears to be bad at carrying, at least in high ELO.

https://preview.redd.it/6u7no8xgmj481.png?width=3178&format=png&auto=webp&s=381fde52ec73b1ad0796eba49882752e0c69336d

If one-trick winrates are indicative of carry potential, then the vertical position of champions on the graph would give an idea of their carry potential. (And carry potential itself is likely a combination of champion strength plus champion agency.) Champions with less than 1K matches played are omitted.

Average Diamond+ 1-trick winrate, by position:

• Top: 56.99
• Jg: 57.97
• Mid: 57.68
• Bot: 57.50
• Sup: 56.71

Data source: LoL Tier List - LoLalytics LoL Tier List for Patch 11.23

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted

I thought this was so well written. Bret Weinstein responded tweeting in response: " A substantial piece of work that crashes and burns with a deeply suspect ad hoc hypothesis in need of a test."

This suggested to me that he hadn't actually read it SA's article.

WAR AXE

Ever since its release, War Axe has been a staple item for many fighters and assassins. For an item passive that can give an additional 72 physical attack, 24 physical penetration, and 15% movement speed boost on top of the item's actual stats, a low price of 2100 gold is cheap even with the hassle of having to maintain stacks. A combination of cooldown reduction [CDR], physical penetration [pen], health points [HP], movement speed and high physical attack in a single item is just almost perfect for any fighter or assassin.

Relevant patch notes history

• 1.6.26, Oct : War axe price increased from 1980 to 2100
• 1.6.18, Sept : Antique cuirass passive activated by skills instead of basic attacks
• 1.6.10, Aug : War axe speed boost from 20 to 15%
• 1.5.88, July :
  • War axe - Physical attack reduced by 10 and adjusted passive. Higher phy atk, lower phy pen. MM, mages, support only benefit 33%
  • Malefic roar - 40% -> 35%
• 1.5.88, June : The patch that started it all.
  • Introduced war axe
  • Defense values can reach -60
  • % penetration stacks additively with fixed pen
  • Sea halberd and NoD apply life drain effect on any damage dealt
  • Dom ice has similar life drain effect
  • Malefic roar now scales with target's physical defense
  • Queen wings defense reduction from 30 to 20, 40 lifesteal to 20 spellvamp
  • Blade armor now returns 25% basic attack damage taken before reductions, and small slow

===

Overall, War Axe is one of the most cost-effective item

One way to know the cost-effectiveness of an item in this game is by adding the cost of each attribute it provides and comparing it with the item's actual cost. Most attributes like physical attack, magic power, HP, and defense can be easily given a price per value, so the passive effects of an item can be the basis of whether an item is cost-effective.

|ITEM STATS|ITEM|UNIQUE STAT

This is the link to the article which shows exposure therapy works.

Didn't know how to link directly.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272735821001586

Bear with me y'all - lot of word vomit ahead! I've read a bunch of different opinions about what motivated Tai Lung and how it fit into the wider KFP philosophy, and I thought I'd add my two cents.

IMO Tai Lung's angst lay in his identity. He was adopted by Shifu, the most senior student of the founder of Kung Fu, and raised in the Jade Palace - the very definition of privileged. Shifu raised Tai Lung like a lot of high-flying businessmen born into wealth are raised - to push themselves beyond what they should to succeed, and that their desires are guaranteed. The inner life is completely neglected, and flaws - and individuality - are not accepted. Something that isn't really touched upon is the trauma of Tai Lung's origin - he was abandoned on the steps of the Jade Palace. He only HAD the identity that was given to him, and its canon in this universe that species-only breeding occurs, so he KNOWS he's not actually Shifu's biological son.

Compare this to Po, who's in the exact same boat with his father. Except, Po isn't raised to believe he's entitled to ANYTHING - his father, a provincial goose, runs a noodle shop (food service is traditionally a working-class occupation), which presumably he's had to also work in all his life. Going a little meta also, Po's a Panda - he's biologically fatter, less athletic, a slow and pacifist species not known for being flashy or powerful at all. Tai Lung's a SNOW LEOPARD - biologically immensely strong, powerful, intelligent with sharp reflexes. These two characters have been given the same beginning, but the cards of nature and circumstance are purposefully stacked completely in Tai Lung's favour.

Which is where the nurture comes in. What do you set out your child to become? Po's Dad is loving, hard-working, and KNOWS THE SECRET OF THE DRAGON SCROLL. This part is glossed over, but the whole time Po's Dad knew the essence of the Dragon Scroll. He knew you didn't have to add anything to the soup, for people to believe. He knew, what he was, as he was, was exactly all he needed to be. KFP2 really shows Po's Dad for the kind of father he was - the father that loved their child exactly the way they were, pre-occupied that their child will not have enough food. It's a little thing, but food is a huge thing for Pandas. They're big animals, and they NEED to eat a lot to survive. You can't jerry-rig a Panda into a muscle-bound predator. Po's Dad knew Po was a Panda, and treated him like a Panda. He didn't spoil him or p