My running theory has been a little different… more of a slow bleed over 2022 to end of 2023… where summer 2023 might be the best time to buy
BUT I just had something enter my brain now and these thoughts just percolated…
My parents just mentioned to me they want to sell this spring.
They don’t want to move this winter.
They know “that’s when the frenzy will be”.
There’s probably millions of lizard brain boomers out there thinking the same thing. “Buy gold” “list in spring” just more boomer “common sense”
———-
Add this to a wave of people who regret their 2020-2021 FOMO purchase listing (we’ve seen an uptick)
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/r7vd7r/regret_selling_house_after_only_1_year/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/r0qa3t/anyone_else_buy_a_lemon_house/
———-
Add Foreclosures and short sales etc are going to be hitting over the next 90 days… taking investors away from the “normal” homes. No more biding against investors.
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/r7iixz/rrealestate_told_me_this_was_cancelled_thousands/hn0l3z4/
——-
Add the New homes are being built as spec homes…. And because they’re delayed with supply chain BS, they’re “started but not complete”…. More homes are started but not complete than anytime going back since the 70s
All the news I’m watching says supply chain is getting better fast. These homes will be complete by Q1 Q2 and since they’re spec homes they’re not spoken for they’re new inventory
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/most-housing-units-under-construction
So
350k homes on market now
https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1465426502028193793?s=21
Normally 950-1.5M
Add 250k forbearance boost
600k hooms
Add new builds (say, 800k)
Now 1.4M hooms
Add 200k “regret listers”
1.6M hooms
Add 1M lizard brain boomer hooms getting listed
2.6M hoom listings
Every single one of these cohorts is “waiting it out to get more money in the spring”
In 180 days we could see inventory go from 350k to 1.5M+ easily… that would be a huge shock to the systems for sellers… if it somehow perfect storms and happens over like a 90 day period as spring starts it could be Hilarious 😂
I’ll go clean up typos and add source links tomorrow
EDIT: ok so we probably won’t see 2.5M inventory this summer/spring but just some simple math above shows you how many variables/places we could see inventory come from. We could easily triple the current inventory of 370k to nearly 1M… easy.
here is the definitive trades
All have dual lock or Velcro. Only the 1312 has a box.
Sale prices:
Mini: ~185$
Lucky cat: 180
Spatial Delivery: 170
1312: 175
I’m flexible for the right trades or bundles and I’ll pay shipping
I have 2 feelers that I’d prefer to sell but open to offers:
EAE Limelight - first run 265
Caroline - Shigeharu 185
Want:
Mr black thunderclaw
Malekko Sprint chicken
OBNE Procession or minim
Origin Effects cali76 or stacked
Strymon Brig or Deco
MIDI controller (morning star mc6)
Shoot your shot and be patient please as I look through responses!
Thanks
Have and don’t need: Iridium Flint Dd8 Ce-2W Benson Preamp Rc-5
All prices include US shipping. Feel free to send me any reasonable offers, bundles will be heavily discounted and prioritized. Please comment before PMing if interested and no chats please. All items will most likely go out the next business day after purchase. Thank you for looking.
| Item | Description | Price (Shipped) |
|---|---|---|
| GMK Bushido Base + Dishonor Red Alphas + Spacebars | No shine. Selling at extras cost, not splitting the bundle. | $315 shipped in trays/$307 in bags |
| GMK Redacted Meka Deskmat (Black) | Used, like new. | $30 |
| Esc Lab Series 00 Artisans Foundry Edition | Brand new, never mounted. Includes the carrying bag and each artisan comes with a authentication card and cleaning cloth. | $350 |
| S+R Brass Salvun Artisan Keycap | Brand new, only opened to inspect. | $79 |
| Zenith Brass Plate | Used once, great condition. | $35 |
| Mark65 FR4 Plate | Like new, priced at less than retail. | $15 |
| 62g Flashquark Two-stage Long Springs | Brand new. 108x. | $10.50 shipped or +$8 to any item |
I'm looking to buy these items or trade for anything above:
| WTB |
|---|
| GMK Cafe Spacebars |
| GMK First Love Novelties and/or Spacebars |
| GMK Burgundy Hangul |
Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/k7kUSs8
Hello,
Looking to sell these boards as I have found my end game.
Plume 65 Charcoal Grey $950
-
Built with NOS Vintage Blacks( TX 70G Springs lubed with 205g0, 105 oil on springs, and TX filmed), and Durock V2 stabs lubed with 205g0 on aluminum plate with a brass weight
-
Comes with OG everything (carrying case, cloth, extras), and an extra brass plate
-
The condition of the board itself is absolutely flawless
RAMA U-80 SEQ2 "SOYA" $700
-
BNIB, opened just to check the contents
-
Comes with the W02-A internal dampener and a brass plate
Prices include shipping.
Comment before PMing please.
All prices include US shipping. Feel free to send me any reasonable offers, bundles will be heavily discounted and prioritized. Please comment before PMing if interested and no chats please. All items will most likely go out the next business day after purchase. Thank you for looking and I wish a happy new year to everyone!
| Item | Description | Price (Shipped) |
|---|---|---|
| GMK Laser Cyberdeck Base | Like new, no shine at all. Priced at $25 less than Drop without tax and free shipping. Will be shipped in bags. | $115 |
| GMK Dracula Whitespace (Accent Spacebars) | Like new, mounted the pink 7u for a couple minutes. Would greatly prefer a trade for Cafe or First Love spacebars. | $95/Trade for GMK Cafe or First Love Spacebars |
| GMK Redacted Meka Deskmat (Black) | Used, like new. | $30 |
| S+R Brass Salvun Artisan Keycap | Brand new, only opened to inspect. | $85 |
| Zenith Brass Plate | Used once, great condition. | $35 |
| Mark65 FR4 Plate | Like new, priced at less than retail. | $15 |
| 62g Flashquark Two-stage Long Springs | Brand new. 108x. | $11.50 shipped or +$8.50 to any item |
I'm looking to buy these items or trade for anything above:
| WTB |
|---|
| GMK Cafe Spacebars |
| GMK First Love Novelties and/or Spacebars |
| GMK Burgundy Hangul |
