There are some very strong feelings over several issues being considered in this election. Let's be civil in out discussions. There will be little tolerance for incivility, trolling, shilling, vulgarity, or other unacceptable behavior as outlined in the Community Guidelines.
Where's My Ballot? :: California Secretary of State
- https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/wheres-my-ballot
Sources for California election news:
- https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/09/california-recall-election-results/
- https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor-recall
- https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/14/us/california-recall-election-newsom
If you have suggestions for others sources, news stories or headlines, make a comment below.
Election Result
- Gavin Newsom holds onto his job as California governor, CNN projects
- Newsom cruises to victory in recall election, will stay in office, NBC News projects
- Newsom is projected to defeat California recall attempt
- California recall election: Newsom will remain in office
News & Headlines
- CalMatters Live: California recall election results 2021
- NYTimes Election Day Coverage
- Decision time: Three ways the California recall election could go
- Gavin Newsom was facing a tight race. Then Larry Elder came along. How Larry Helped Gavin
- More than 9.5 million Californians have voted, a sign of hope for Newsom
- California poll worker reprimanded over Trump attire
- [60% of Californians voting in r
Florida has had roughly 40,000 covid deaths so far, and the 2018 election was decided by fewer than 33,000 votes. While cases and deaths are not along political lines, nor are all deaths necessarily voters, at what point will the resistance to masks and vaccines actually start to effect the balance of the electorate?
Interested to hear public opinion on this.
Here are some arguments and points I can think of for each of these options; I'm partially making this post because I'm undecided on this question, and I believe each one of these to be good talking points in their own rights.
Good Sign: While Democrats suffered painful losses in Virginia and came within an inch of losing New Jersey, these states famously have a record of voting against the incumbent party. In 2009, Virginia was a safe margin of victory for Republicans, as well as them flipping NJ. Instead, Democrats made Virginia super close, and actually retained the New Jersey governorship; Murphy is the first Democrat Governor to win re-election since 1977. Therefore, Democrats were able to stop a lot of the bleeding they'd normally have, and majorly outperformed historical precedent, which means 2022 will not include a heavy red wave.
Bad Sign: Just a year after Biden won Virginia by 10.11%, the first time a Democrat won Virginia by double digits since FDR in 1994, Republicans managed to flip Virginia 13% and win the governors' race. Terry McAuliffe's terrible campaigning shows yet again Democrats horrid incompetence to win statewide races, and will bleed into 2022. New Jersey, a race pundits predicted would not be competitive, came down to the absolute wire, with Republicans massively outperforming expectations in all respects. The young vote has fallen apart, and Democrat apathy is apparent. These races were referendums on an unpopular Biden Presidency, which is unlikely to recover. These strong, double digits swings over 13% in favor of the Republicans clearly show a strong, crimson wave brewing and building on the horizon, leading to Republicans gaining back both chambers of Congress.
Neither/No Bearing: In a mix of both above reasoning, given historical precedent Democrats did simply average. Nobody in 2019 ever thought Georgia could flip blue in 2020 nor would Democrats win both Senate seats. One year is a lot of time with lots of change and as a result, these results will have little bearing on any 2022 results. Polling has yet to suggest any red wave with the generic ballot polling having both parties neck and neck at ~43%, meaning a lot of people are undecided. Senate polling similarly shows no indication of loss of Democrat support in many competitive races, with many competitive races such as NH and AZ having Democratic edges. We cannot predict this far into the future, and these races will be
... keep reading on reddit ➡
California Gubernatorial Recall Election Prediction Thread
This is the subreddit's official California Gubernatorial Recall Election Prediction Thread. This thread is your opportunity to predict the outcome of the upcoming election on September 14th, 2021. In the election two questions are being posed to voters.
- Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?
- Which candidate should succeed Gavin Newsom as Governor if he is recalled?
In order to participate in the prediction thread, your prediction content will need to be formatted as follows:
Gavin Newsom [will/will not] be recalled with [X]% of the vote in support.
For example, your answer might appear like so.
Gavin Newsom will not be recalled with 80% of the vote in support.
For example, your answer might appear like so.
Gavin Newsom will be recalled with 50.1% of the vote in support.
For users whom believe Newsom will successfully be recalled, they should then also complete a second portion for their prediction.
[Cannidate] will be Newsom's replacement with [X]% of the vote in support.
For example,
Steve Jobs will be Newsom's replacement with 40% of the vote in support
Rules
- All submissions must take the format described in the original post.
- Only top level comments are allowed.
- Replies are not allowed and will be removed.
- Meta discussion reading the rules should be carried out in the weekly General Chat.
- Rules and formatting requirements subject to change.
- Prizes may be awarded by the moderation team for most accurate predictions.
- Prediction discussion should be carried out in the weekly General Chat.
- Submissions with content other than the prescribed examples will be removed.
- Karma and account age thresholds still apply.
So, California is set to vote on recalling Governor Gavin Newsom on September 14. The race is pretty close, with Newsom having a slight edge or disadvantage depending on the poll. His term has had a fair share of controversies, many of them due to his handling of COVID-19. They include attending an indoor maskless dinner with lobbyists at the French Laundry and unemployment fraud. He also pulled a Cuomo by sending infectious COVID-19 patients to nursing homes. He also said he and his kids were facing the challenges of attending "Zoom school" when they were actually going to an in-person private school. And finally the issue of vaccine "cheat codes," meant to be given specifically to black and Latino people by "community organizers" for "racial equity" in vaccine distribution being used by random people who found them online due to them being infinitely reusable. And the blackouts, fires, gig economy expansion with Prop 22, homelessness, housing, the list goes on.
So the first question is to recall or keep the current governor. If recall gets more than 50% of the votes, Newsom is removed as governor and replaced by one of the opponents in question two. As you can tell I'm not his biggest fan. However, there isn't exactly a wealth of better opponents. The leaders for replacing him in a recent poll include some real departures from California's liberal status quo. First is 29-year-old finance and real estate YouTube influencer Kevin Paffrath, the main Democrat running after any major Democrats considering running were dissuaded by the California Democratic party, Larry Elder, [a libertarian radio host who opposes gun control, any minimum wage, abortion, and welfare.]
... keep reading on reddit ➡I have done that before, now with Texas Covid cases, abortion ban, and now the voting restrictions bill. May end up cost Abbott's reelection. With women voter turnout. Let's say the Texas Democrats regain the Texas legislature In order to pass major changes to Texas.
Who would you support in this election?
Who would you support in this election?
Democrat Gavin Newsom wins California Recall Election
There are some very strong feelings over several issues being considered in this election. Let's be civil in out discussions. There will be little tolerance for incivility, trolling, shilling, vulgarity, or other unacceptable behavior as outlined in the Community Guidelines.
Where's My Ballot? :: California Secretary of State
- https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/wheres-my-ballot
Sources for California election news:
- https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/09/california-recall-election-results/
- https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor-recall
- https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/14/us/california-recall-election-newsom
If you have suggestions for others sources, news stories or headlines, make a comment below.
Election Result
- Gavin Newsom holds onto his job as California governor, CNN projects
- Newsom cruises to victory in recall election, will stay in office, NBC News projects
- Newsom is projected to defeat California recall attempt
- California recall election: Newsom will remain in office
News & Headlines 9/16
- How much was spent on the recall? One estimate: Nearly half a billion dollars.
- A partisan recall puts California Republican Party in disarray
- After recall flop, struggling California Republicans once again fighting over future
News & Headlines 9/15
- Newsom Beat the Recall, Now Comes the Hard Part: Governing California
- [California recall: What exit polls tell us about the state’s LGBT
