The drain has continued at SLV's ledger and vaults. You can see on the chart below that about 20 million oz has come out in the last month. Where is it going? I don't know for sure but JP Morgan's vault in NYC is up 5.2 million oz over the same period.
https://preview.redd.it/4jugt0phxxa81.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc1ec361efcfa5b0135080777a2177bb2e16d937
Also, on the plot above you can see the delay in SLV's vault tally as shown in the bar report PDF file and the ledger as reported on their so called "key facts". You can get to both here:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund
Apparently the SLV vault guys take vacation ... or holiday as the Londoners will say ... in late June/early July. That's when the sun comes out for an hour per day so they gotta enjoy it.
JP Morgan's new SLV vault is up to almost 10 million oz after an addition of 668,782 oz today. The SLV Brinks Premier Park vault was down the same amount, so it's a fair bet to assume a truckload moved from vault to vault. I didn't know the Brit's had big trucks. Very impressive.
Below is a chart of the SLV vault by vault trends below. You can see that metal is moving from both Brinks Premier Park and Malca Amit to the new JP Morgan vault.
https://preview.redd.it/dqvyrd39zxa81.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa0bc100cb22826b6dc5ccf62c07b4855588c848
On comex silver, the January contract has been strong on deliveries so far, but Friday was a real yawner. No net new contracts and nobody issued delivery notices. Still a few weeks to go, so lot of time for turmoil. Today's volume was 377 so we can hope some whales are splashing around.
The roll has started from the March contract to May on the active contracts. That's indicated by the change in open interest or OI for each contract and the jump in Trade at Settlement volume. I suppose, the industry hedger guys execute two simultaneous trades to roll ... doing it on the days close. I think this scene plays out like like the crocodiles waiting on the wildebeest. The rollers are not the crocs.
Yesterday I wrote about the surge in net new GOLD contracts for the January contract and the HUGE trading volume yesterday. Nearly all, 99%, of yesterday's volume of 1,547 contracts resulted in 1,593 new contracts. That means almost no existing longs closed by buying a short, and no existing shorts closed by buying a long. It was all new players. That was about $280 million of transactions to buy gold during an inactive month.
Below is my updated plot of net new contracts. Lotta buzz buying metal this week:
https://preview.redd.it/3v5kl9md5jb81.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=78a56b22a39d8b03bf62eb450f3ade7ed7d9f1ae
The OI on this contract at the close last Friday was only 36. Since then 3,060 contracts were opened through Wednesday. Today everyone took a break and the volume was only 38. BofA bought nearly all the metal on today's issue and stops report. HSBC's house account was the big seller:
https://preview.redd.it/xhe8140u7jb81.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=5375d8eaeccf3aeb2f33ae1fc0770f5174466cfc
After those delivery notices clear, the OI will be only roughly 60. I like when it is nearly zero'd out so I can determine who and when participants are transacting in the days ahead.
I know you're disappointed there are no pictures of Trump expressing "huge" today. BofA took a day off it's buying binge in both gold and silver.
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At SLV, the Authorized Participants redeemed 18 "baskets" of 50,000 shares and that'll remove 830,000 oz from their ledger. Notice how their share count continues to drift lower regardless of rising silver prices and an increased interest in silver. It would be natural to think that when prices rally investor interest would pick up and new shares would be issued. But you'd be WRONG.
SLV only exists for 14 bullion banks to trade against the public, and stick a silver pacifier in their mouth so they think they own silver. SLV's ledger is down 20 million oz in the last month. I wrote about that a few days ago and posted a chart of the ledger. Shame on you if you're not reading daily.
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At comex's vaults ... FYI they aren't run by comex, but by private parties ... JP Morgan's vault moved another truckload into the vault but a 1/2 truckload simultaneously moved out. I suspect the JPM bank moved the truckload in and a customer moved 1/2 out, but I don't know that.
House ac
... keep reading on reddit ➡The upcoming January contract had a big jump in OI of 293 contracts as shown in the plot below. The OI had been drifting downward but it is now standing at one of the highest at a dozen days to first notice day. This is a "non-active" month and most of the folks standing for delivery usually end up taking delivery. If all those folks hold in there that would be a delivery of 2,126 contracts or 10.6 million oz.
https://preview.redd.it/30chvj979l581.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5bdb30c3bcb94a722fa522a45a8edab4dd4ac4a
The December futures contract is comatose. No delivery notices issued for 2 consecutive days. There is still 618 long contracts waiting for their delivery notice. I want to see who is going to cough it up! As each day ticks off to contract expiry, the chance that it is one big player increases. By that I mean ... if the contracts were held by a multitude of shorts you'd think they would be issuing delivery notices intermittently. If the remaining contracts are held by a bullion bank it would be odd that they'd wait late into the delivery period. Usually they are out with notices on first notice day.
In the comex vaults ... none of the things I'm watching has budged. MTB still has their 6 million oz in eligible and JPM hasn't had any movement in or out.
Today there was a net move of 130,000 oz into the vaults.
https://preview.redd.it/wdwmu6dsbl581.png?width=1002&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0579f8093aab2432b13a209af7be2b61be56fa0
Meanwhile at SLV ... the ledger was down 1,480,000 oz. And in their bar report, 1,040,000 oz was added to the new SLV vault operated by JPM. Malca Amit's vault was down by 640,000 as was Brinks Premier down by 1,410,000.
Maybe this will become the trend? Metal will drift from the other vaults into JPM's new vault? Here's a chart of prior activity:
https://preview.redd.it/se31t04f7l581.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=930284f1ae3ada0f6bf1f2c387866dbb8615f3cf
Go figure. Why would another vault be needed as JP Morgan already has a London vault? Plus there are three other London vaults (two of which are operated by Brinks and one by Malca Amit). Those vaults are at least 25 million oz below prior levels - each.
The new vault showed up on the December 9 bar report with 790,000 oz. On the same day 2.4 million was added to the Brinks Premier Park vault and 210,000 oz was deducted from the Malca Amit vault. I can't make any bananas out of that, so seemingly they were 3 independent changes.
Then on today's report, Malca Amit's vault is down 110,000 oz and the new JPM vault is up 110,000 oz. I checked that on my TI-35 and those are the same numbers. It certainly appears to be a direct vault to vault move. I don't recall ever seeing a tit-for-tat move like this on the SLV bar report.
So what's all that mean? I don't know!
But I know the apes will speculate! Some ground rules ... Just because the metal is in a JPM vault (or whichever vault) doesn't mean the vault operator owns the metal. There are 14 Authorized Participants and 3 vault operators, so obviously the AP's contract for vault space with other parties. That said ... I'd be willing to bet that JPM vaults JPM silver in a JPM vault though.
Maybe the Malca Amit vault is topped off? I'm sure they do other business, so even if they are below prior vault levels maybe they are tight on space now.
Does SLV really have metal? Or is it just a silver tracking stock as they clearly say in their prospectus? I am of the opinion that most of the SLV metal is hypothecated and not of clear title anyhow.
However, I believe there are bars out there with serial numbers in vaults and SLV is on a list of potential claims. Well, except for the duplicates and typos that were identified by WSS ape u/exploring_finance who digitized the entire 5500 pages of the bar report and analyzed it for redundancy.
FYI ... the 14 AP's are as follows:
- ABN AMRO Clearing Chicago LLC
- J.P. Morgan Securities
- Scotia Capital (USA)
- Barclays Capital Inc.
- Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
- Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
- Goldman
You are getting to see the effects of the great SLV call wall we mistakenly created last year in February when we promoted SLV. There is 1,600,000+ Calls on the book to expire Jan 21st. There is only 560,000 Puts to slow the downward move. 84,859 of those Puts (1/6/2022 data) (the last block) until their is no resistance to going down are at SLV strike 20.00 ( SI strike 21.9) They are trying to get these put buyers to sell those SLV Strike 20 puts with a small profit leaving them unlimited downward moves to wipe out all of the SLV Call options. This morning with the weekly SLV expire they wiped out 40,000 close to money Calls with a 9:15-9:30 dip. In addition the number of Puts in the mini Put block dropped by 850. Great Physical Buying prices are coming up soon.
Easy stuff first ...
The warehouse and delivery events I've been tracking have slowed down for this report period. First, the issues and stops report has shown little activity the last 3 days. As you (should) know, there was the big blowout by BofA last week and since then the sum total of delivery notices issued is only 104 contracts. You can see on the chart below it went from far below trend, to over-trend on the day BofA issued. And the inactivity over the last 3 days is causing December to drift back to trend.
There are still 842 contracts (4.2 million oz) standing for delivery waiting to be issued a delivery notice.
https://preview.redd.it/8ijkxg5rc7481.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e23cdfb153cfdcef3b0f3f8928c42889813003e
Second, JP Morgan hasn't had any more activity moving metal into their vault or moving eligible into registered. Today's report showed no movement at all in the JP Morgan vaults.
Third, there was minimal movement at MTB's vault. This is one day after 6.1 million oz was moved out of registered. I'm still hoping this moves OUT OF THE VAULT shortly.
Here is the summary of the vault report. Even though there hasn't yet been follow through on any of the big moves I'm tracking ... there was STILL a net 700,000 oz move OUT OF THE VAULT. Most of that was from Brinks.
https://preview.redd.it/2lxln1e1e7481.png?width=939&format=png&auto=webp&s=efe66fee72c68967f9f0d910cc81c0ec58da127d
Meanwhile at SLV ... the vault report shows 1,070,000 oz withdrawn from JP Morgan's London vault. The outer firewall may be catching fire. If you don't know what this means, you need to read my posts over the last 2 weeks. Another boat ride to NYC?
Changing subjects ... the EFP has drifted upwards over the last week or two. If you need some background on "Exhange for Physical" you could read this:
If you scroll down in the comments a bit, you'll see where Craig Hemke of TF Metals report had weighed in and posted some of the pieces he has wrote. Well, at least reddit user u/AgAu99 represented himself as Craig. There are several good links about EFP in there.
I should probably have a re-read of those links, but I don't think Craig, or anyone else, has expla
... keep reading on reddit ➡
JP Morgan moved 580,000 oz into their comex vault in NYC on today's report. This comes after withdrawing 1,450,000 oz from the SLV London vault operated by JPM the prior week.
How many days was between those two events? Between 5 to 7 depending on report resolution and time zone adjustment. Is that the same silver? Can a freighter travel 20 MPH (or 17 knots)? Alternatively, it could be metal moved out of London in early Nov 4 - 8 and there would be plenty of time for that to make the trip.
If JP Morgan does need metal in its comex vault why wouldn't they withdraw SLV silver from their NYC vault? SLV's ledger shows 103 million oz in JPM's NYC vault. An Authorized Participant can request withdrawal from a specific vault per the SLV Prospectus. Maybe that metal in JPM's NYC vault is owned by not just SLV but also a third party? SLV's prospectus is mute on the Trust owning metal free and clear. And if it doesn't say it in big bold letters, it ain't so. In fact, SLV openly states that it is just a "tracking" device.
You gotta pity those SLV illiterates, and I mean the folks that buy the shares.
Do you think I'm chasing shadows? I wouldn't be on red alert if JPM hadn't shown us that they didn't have enough metal to settle a minor amount (1,650,000 oz) of comex shorts in November. They had to move metal into the vault for that.
And now we're into December deliveries. December is a major month, unlike November. 47,000,000 oz are standing for delivery. So far, after 2 days, JPM hasn't issued any warrants for settlement. It's possible they don't have any December short positions and won't need to issue any warrants. However, if they move this newly arrived metal into registered and then issue warrants in the days ahead ... that'd be a sure sign they are TIGHT on metal.
But wait, there's more! Usually after 2 days of deliveries about 50% to 80% of the contracts have settled. See the chart below. How's December going? Way below average ... only 33% have settled. Could be some folks are short metal and I hope one of them is JPM.
It's going to be interesting this week.
https://preview.redd.it/60ys2d09w0381.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee341acce3238794245164273359a77036fa77f6
And shame on you if you haven't been keeping up on this story! First do 20 pushups and then read these links. OK, 10 if you're a girl.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/r59bc3/jp_morgans_london_vault_for_the_slv_trust_is/](https://www.reddit.c
... keep reading on reddit ➡
Three weeks ago I penned a piece on JP Morgan's London vault where they hold metal for SLV. At that time, JP Morgan had withdrawn 3,270,000 oz of silver and I flagged it as a signal that they could be in distress for silver supply.
Since then, I noted that JP Morgan had to move metal into the comex vaults to satisfy a relatively small amount of metal they sold against the November contract (1,650,000 oz). It was surprising to me that they couldn't issue those warrants out of their existing inventory. After all, JP Morgan's shows 179,000,000 oz in their comex vaults. Apparently the house of Morgan doesn't own much of the metal stacked in their own vaults?
The story continues ... another 1,450,000 oz was withdrawn from the SLV vault operated by JP Morgan on November 25 bringing the total to 4,700,000 oz for November. If you're 100% up to speed on Ditch_the_DeepState's stuff, skip to the plots below.
Otherwise, here is a summary of the backstory ...
JP Morgan is the custodian for SLV and maintains vaults for SLV in New York and London. There are 3 other vaults operated by 2 sub-custodians, Brinks and Malca Amit all three of those in London. The vault tallies are reported by SLV each day but lag the SLV ledger by about a week.
I've been tracking each of the 5 vaults for the last 9 months plus have a couple of points from the "wayback" machine. Presumably none of the metal in JP Morgan vaults for SLV could be available for sale on comex unless JPM (or another Authorized Participant) bought it back from the SLV trust. The procedure to withdraw metal is to obtain 50,000 shares (called a "basket") and exchange for metal. Then JP Morgan could withdraw the metal from the SLV vault ledger, relocate it to a comex vault (if necessary) and then classify it as registered. Then it could settle comex futures contracts.
Why would JP Morgan raid SLV (if/when) that would occur? It could be a signal their own stack is hypothecated, non-existent, or otherwise not available.
In my prior piece I characterized the London vault as JP Morgan's outer firewall and the JPM New York vault being the inner firewall. This may be the start of that outer firewall catching flames.
Here's the earlier piece for the full story. It's got my opinions about how the deep state is woven into the metals market along with this backstory:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/qqgeth/jp_morgans_london_vault_operated_for_slv_starts/](https://www.reddit.com
... keep reading on reddit ➡
$VETTE will allow anyone to buy or sell a $VETTE, with the understanding that whoever wishes delivery will be paid at the market value of a $VETTE, instead of actual $VETTE delivery.
Who's in?
Although on Fridays report (for Thursdays activity), registered had dropped 50,000 oz but Brinks moved 1,280,000 oz into eligible. I was AWOL on the weekend and didn't post this.
But on today's report (for Friday activity) the drain continues, particularly in registered. MTB's vault showed nearly all of the reduction in registered. MTB's vault has been busy in the last couple of months.
Here are the numbers:
https://preview.redd.it/2kb4eetpegy71.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=c080145138dd0d80e3b173906cea640305b5c1d8
SLV was surprising quiet today considering silver was strong ... no change in the ledger.
PSLV reports in 35 minutes... and (UPDATE) they bought 100,000 oz at about $25.67 or about 5.4% above comex mid point.
I like to keep one of my monitors for thinkorswim and cant find any "ticker" or really any site that has a live price on spot silver. Has anyone else had this issue before? Or know what to use/recommend?
I had a buddy write up some python code to parse the 5,000+ page slv bar list that resides in pdf.
The code is pretty small and straightforward, it extracts the bar list into csv.
There are duplicates because the bar key (in my opinion) should have year. I think the refiners reuse the bar id number yearly and use year to really provide a unique key. However of course the year isn’t provided. However you can use refiner, bar id, weight as a unique key.
what I am looking for is someone to run this python code weekly, load it into a database with primary key being bar id, refiner, weight, vault owner, with other fields load_date, lastupdate_date.
process would be insert all bars in a holding table. Do a join of new list with existing bars table, update “lastupdate_date” field With today. Then do an insert all using today as load date and last update date, most will fail because they are already there (primary key blocks).
then you can run full reporting of unique bars entering slv vaults and leaving slv vaults and moving vaults. Can be used to track bars to pslv and whatever else.
If you understand this and have time and ability to take this on. Let me know. I could do it, but I’m not a young pup anymore that likes to take up these kind of projects. You must know python and have a database handy, and be willing to report back weekly on results.
Back when we started earlier this year, we made the mistake of buying SLV initially. All they did was change their prospectus saying they may not be able to buy silver! Now we stay far away from that garbage. If you want an unleveraged play, there’s PSLV. If you want leverage, consider the miners or even options on some of the larger ones. SLV is a paper game the banks play to make people think they actually own silver. It diverts interest away from buying the real thing. All IMO. Good luck!
No action at SLV ... which to the uninitiated would seem odd for a busy day in silver. However, SLV is the opposite of what you'd think. It exists for the Authorized Participants to make money from you off their metal. Why would they sell you tokens on their silver right now? But there are many fools who play their game. Future bag holders.
Here's the Comex vault action:
https://preview.redd.it/elskj0kb32z71.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b9344a9851b05eb3d27b0f5021d340ce947b0e1
Yesterday there were some questions about what I mean by "comex mid point". It's just the arithmetic average of the high and low price for the day. That's all. Since I don't know what time of day they bought metal (and the silver price at that moment), I compare my purchase price estimate to the average price for the day. I just use the mid point. So don't get your shorts in a knot. It's just an estimate. And think of my numbers as statistical.
PSLV's end of day cash is $14 million ... enough for 550,000 more oz.
And remember, you still have life, silver and the pursuit of happiness.
Ahoi apes!
There was a post stating that when you buy 1 ounce of physical silver, about 300 paper silver contracts are removed from the system. Is this correct? Anyone knows the rationale behind this? Thank you in advance.
1,600,000 Calls on the Books to 585,000 Puts for Jan 21 expire. Manipulators are now trading in as good of sweet spot range as they can get on the Silver contract for beating Calls and Puts out of their money. The Data: 89% of the calls are out of the money if the price on Jan 21st closes below 22.50 on the Si Contract which is approx: 20.50 on the SLV. Below 22.50 to 20.00 on the SI (20.50-18.50 SLV) there is in place 126,000 Puts to 109,000 calls. The puts have created a mini downward wall . At SI strike 22.000 (20.00 SLV) the number of Puts and calls are essentially the same (84,000 puts vs 63,000 Calls) If logic regulated trading decisions the manipulators want to stay exactly between SI 22.000 or 22.490 and 23.500. Logic in Silver is occasionally Blinded by the Shine so a move downward to the SI 22.000 (SLV 20.00) might make a mental point of showing their power to control.
Easy things first ... here's the comex vault action for today. 500,000 oz OUT OF THE VAULT with most of it coming out of CNT Depository offset somewhat by Delaware Depository.
https://preview.redd.it/6510sly6jny71.png?width=969&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa439d9e8977754743adb26f6769fe30170fbb6e
SLV vault analysis:
JP Morgan is the custodian for SLV which is appropriate since JP Morgan is the deep state's banker protecting the perceived value of the deep state's fiat. And since SLV was constructed as a firewall to a fiat melt down it is only natural that JP Morgan would be the SLV custodian. You can read the links on my profile page for a deep dig on this topic.
Blackrock, another deep state operative, is the Sponsor of the SLV Trust. Did I mention I've been banned from Twitter for disrespecting JP Morgan?
Back to SLV's vault situation ... JP Morgan, as custodian, maintains vaults for SLV in New York and London. There are 3 other vaults operated by 2 sub-custodians, Brinks and Malca Amit all three of those in London. The vault tallies are reported by SLV daily but lag the SLV ledger by about a week.
I've been tracking each of the 5 vaults for the last 9 months plus have a couple of points from the "wayback" machine. I'm most interested in the JPM New York vault because that vault total (103 million oz) is likely also reported as eligible silver on JPM's comex vault tally. Yes it is a "double dip", but there is nothing wrong with that as it is metal in their vault. Who knows if any other entity also has a claim check on that same 103 million oz.
Presumably that metal couldn't be available for sale on comex unless JPM bought it back from the SLV trust in 50,000 share "baskets", withdrew the metal from SLV and then reclassified it from eligible to registered.
You can see on the table above that 103 million oz is about 40% of the total eligible silver in ALL the comex vaults, so that SLV metal is not inconsequential in the supply of metal for the price setting comex market. I look forward to the day when JP Morgan needs to start buying back metal from SLV's New York vault to sell on comex ... all in it's effort to control the price of fiat. That would be a signal of a melt down.
But that isn't happening yet. The JP Morgan New York vault hasn't shown ANY change in at least 3 years. Not one troy oz. Flat makes a boring graph, so I'm not going to show that.
However, JP Morgan's London vault has seen some reduction in the last couple of days ..
... keep reading on reddit ➡
At the end of March 2021 the LBMA indicated that $SLV (remember that $SLV sucks and if you aren't buying physical pick up $PSLV) owned 103,000,000oz of silver held in JP Morgan's Comex vault. You can find the report here https://cdn.lbma.org.uk/downloads/Publications/LBMA-Silver-Investment-Report-2021-Final-Version.pdf and if you do not want to click here is a screen capture with the information.
I am not sure of a method to determine who claims ownership to the "baskets" of silver they create or if they actually have the silver. Last March they did change their prospectus in a way that indicated they might not have the metal. Due your own due diligence on that. Many apes have written about it, the accounting "error" and other things that prevented the squeeze from getting squoze back in the day.
If we look to Ditch_the_Deepstate's last rampage update https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/rgk9bl/the_open_interest_on_the_upcoming_january_futures/ we see that last week Eligible ended at 260,020,780oz.
This means that just shy of 40% of eligible is claimed by shareholders of $SLV. If my calculations are correct, and you think the Comex data isn't fully doctored, that means the Criomex has just over 250,000,000oz of silver that could be marketable.
I see this draining quick. Get it while you can apes! I am so thankful to have found this group and to be on the right side of history with you. Also, always do your own due diligence.
Let's go.
TL/DR: 103 million ounces in JP Morgan's vault is owned by $SLV bagholders. If buying via brokerage get $PSLV not $SLV.
It is mind boggling to me but the people are not getting rid of their Calls on the January 21 expire contract but buying more. The number in one week has increased from 1,500,000 to over 1,600,000. The manipulators now have Calls (15,700) at SLV $15.00 which is an Si value of strike 17.00. The time value of OTM Puts has prevented many from buying blocking Puts. We may be setting ourselves for a major downward price event for Silver. The manipulators from what I have seen seldom leave large numbers of Calls in a collecting position. To be honest I personally do not see the purpose for what could be a major smash down in late January 2022.
It's been a good run lately, but we'll see what happens from here.
https://preview.redd.it/b31myqhwegx71.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b720d53bfe621f964840441435d21cdc3b1afc3
Speaking of loosing ground ... I see the MAFU party got a bloody nose last night.
I will post the prizes image on my next post.
https://preview.redd.it/ell8dxc10qa81.jpg?width=2200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5574757294c3f7c8841bc94fcaa69846c1454fe6
https://preview.redd.it/8mzbsce90qa81.jpg?width=2250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4d91cee07d1fc454eeb72875964ee6e454fa943
If I am reading this right, here is the setup for tomorrow so far:
----------For the Puts:-------For the Calls
Strike-------Open Int ---------Open Int
20.00-------22,853--------------14,091
20.50--------4,613----------------8,206
21.00-------14,742---------------17,821
21.50---------5,281---------------23,656
It looks like at the current SLV price at 20.75 the open int would be 8,206 plus 14,091 for the calls "In the money" plus a considerable amount of open int above the strike price of 21.50 and 17,821 plus 5,281 for the puts "In the money" if I am reading it right.
The puts generally set the floor for the share price while the calls want to see the stock price lower. Right now they are caught in the middle and would probably be better off if the SLV price was above $21.50 which would put everything in the above chart "Out of the money".
However, if the share price was to be above $21.50 then everything shown in the above chart for the Calls would be "In the money" which is very bad.
So they have to strike a balance to come up with a share price that will not put a bad hurt on them.
Anybody care to choose a price of where SLV should be to minimize the pain on the bankers?
If I have said anything incorrect please correct me and I will make the adjustment.
There’s a lot of speculation SLV is weakening but so far it certainly isn’t collapsing. How will you know if it starts?
Watch for a widening discount.
SLV isn’t being directly weakened when it slowly loses ounces or assets. This just means the authorized participants (APs) are trading in baskets of shares and taking out physical silver. The shares they trade in are destroyed. Theoretically, they could remove most of the silver slowly over time and the fund would keep working. If Ditch is right, they may keep doing this through 2022.
SLV will start to weaken when retail investors, financial advisors, and hedge funds start to heed Ape messaging and lose confidence in it, in favor of PSLV or physical. They will redeem SLV shares. If APs (acting as market makers) choose not to buy these shares, an imbalance will occur, causing the discount to widen. If APs do buy the shares, they will need to offload them for physical silver, which will accelerate loss of the fund’s ounces, potentially creating a snowball.
SLV has to avoid the appearance of an asset loss snowball, especially with WSS/Ditch eyes on them. Yet, APs are morally obligated to support the share price and prevent large discounts. This is different than closed end trusts like PSLV, in which nobody is obligated to support share price.
In SLV up to now, discounts and premiums have tended to stay in a range of plus or minus 2%, they always revert to mean, and they have been almost perfectly symmetrical around zero. APs have done their job and retail investors aren’t yet fleeing in mass. Keep watching the link below to see if this changes.
https://ycharts.com/companies/SLV/discount_or_premium_to_nav
Today was almost a repeat of yesterday. SLV had 3,300,000 oz moved off of the ledger. In the SLV vaults 450,000 oz went into the new JPM vault in London and there was a net withdrawal of 1,480,000 out of SLV's vaults.
At comex vaults, JPM moves another truckload (600,000 oz) into the vault. No movement yet into registered. MTB moved 1/2 truckload into the vault and straight into registered. The net vault movement was 63,000 oz into the vault.
The only difference from yesterdays activity is on the issues and stops report, where there were 60 delivery notices issued. None of the buyers or sellers were house accounts at JPM or any other bank. There are still about 555 contracts waiting to settle.
Today's vault summary:
- JP Morgan: 295,000 oz OUT OF THE VAULT
- Brinks: 179,000 oz OUT OF THE VAULT
- CNT Depository: 105,000 OUT OF THE VAULT
https://preview.redd.it/vytfk8exjvz71.png?width=933&format=png&auto=webp&s=1448208670cf3f5266b2334af361592d07b50c27
You are getting to see the effects of the great SLV call wall we mistakenly created last year in February when we promoted SLV. There is 1,600,000+ Calls on the book to expire Jan 21st. There is only 560,000 Puts to slow the downward move. 84,000 of those Puts (the last block) until their is no resistance to going down are at SLV strike 20.00 ( SI strike 21.9) They are trying to get these put buyers to sell those SLV Strike 20 puts with a small profit leaving them unlimited downward moves to wipe out all of the SLV Call options. Great Physical Buying prices are coming up soon.
