Super interesting podcast covering thinking about risk and stats in everyday life such as using base line forecasts, and translating risk into absolute risks. Transcript and link: https://www.thendobetter.com/investing/2022/1/11/david-spieglhalter-covid-statistics-thinking-about-risk-in-life-and-medicine-podcast
David discusses what was most surprising and misunderstood about COVID statistics. David emphasises how numbers can be emotional and weaponised and what we can do to protect ourselves.
We chat about what thinking about risk and techniques we should teach children and think about in every day life. Ideas such as baseline risk and absolute vs relative risk.
We think about unintended consequences, the agency challenges of regulators and how to think of a range, tolerance or gradation of risk.
David explains fat tails and extreme values and that, for instance, AI risk is an extreme existential risk but perhaps over rated.
We learn about the βRose Paradoxβ and βCromwellβs lawβ, in statistics. The Rose paradox suggests policy might be useful at a general population level but not at an individual basis. For instance, government messages about drinking less and things like that can be rational at the population level and yet it's also rational for individuals to take no notice of it.
Cromwellβs law implies many life events are not 0% or 100% and you should take that into account in decision making - or, in plain English, you should always imagine there's something you haven't thought of.
We discuss the risks of alcohol and touch on air pollution and cholesterol (stain drugs), and how to think about medical statistics.
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Journal of the Royal Society
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Volume 1
Poststructuralist Thought: The Role of Representation in International Relations
Author: /u/EruditeFellow
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E. H. Carr: A Critical Review
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I've posted this on other places but here I think Potato is more likely to see. I just want be helpful for who may be. Sorry if I seem like I'm spamming.
The title says what this is about. As most people the royal society in the science victory that's the focus of this dissertation. I wasn't able to employ this strategy because somehow I keep winning by culture.
For most of civs it's better to use a builder because they'd have at least 5 (max 8 for playing as Qin Shi Huang, training on a city with Liang and having the Pyramids) charges as opposed to military engineers who have 2 and the only benefit is that they don't increase their production coast.
But there's the English in GS. They got +100% production towards engineers and they have +2 charges. It is half the price for the double of the benefit, thus an engineer 4 times better. With the production bonus you can easily 1 turn them and spam into the spaceport to finish your projects. Plug in LeveΓ© en Massse to nullify their 2 gold maintenance cost too.
Now here's the math of builder vs engineers:
Builder with 6 charges (it isn't every game you can get the Pyramids but Liang and Public Works is for everyone) cost:
46+(4*x)
Also remember Public Works gives +30% production towards builders.
X is the number of the current builder.
Then charge per build is:
(46+[4*x])/1.3*6
(46+[4*x])/7.8
(23+[2*x])/3.9
Military engineer cost is always 170. With the +100% bonus it the cost gets cut in half. So it is 85.
4 charges make 21.25 production per charge.
Comparing the two costs:
(23+[2*x])/3.9=21.25
23+(2*x)=82.875
2*x=59.875
x=29.9375
If you're on the 30th builder or later in this scenario, which is a fair number, you're better investing in engineers unless if you can make builders in 1 turn then it's best to use the unit that has more charges, the builder in most of cases.
In this case your builder will be costing 166.
I didn't made the math with the Pyramids.
