I see a lot of people posting lately about how we ended up in this situation. Let me ask you this; how many players on the below list are NHL level starters in your opinion?
2014 (6 picks total)
- Round 1, Pick 17: Travis Sanheim
- Round 2, Pick 48: Nicolas Aube-Kubel
- Round 3, Pick 86: Mark Friedman
- Round 5, Pick 138: Oskar Lindblom
2015 (9 picks total)
- Round 1, Pick 7: Ivan Provorov
- Round 1, Pick 24: Travis Konecny
- Round 3, Pick 70: Felix Sandstrom
- Round 3, Pick 90: Matej Tomek
- Round 4, Pick 98: Samuel Dove-McFalls
2016 (10 picks total)
- Round 1, Pick 22: German Rubstov
- Round 2, Pick 36: Pascal Laberge
- Round 2, Pick 48: Carter Hart
- Round 2, Pick 52: Wade Allison
- Round 3, Pick 82: Carsen Twarynski
- Round 4, Pick 109: Connor Bunnaman
2017 (9 picks total)
- Round 1, Pick 2: Nolan Patrick
- Round 1, Pick 27: Morgan Frost
- Round 2, Pick 35: Isaac Ratcliffe
- Round 3, Pick 80: Kirill Ustimenko
- Round 4, Pick 106: Matthew Strome
2018 (8 picks total)
- Round 1, Pick 14: Joel Farabee
- Round 1, Pick 19: Jay O'Brien
- Round 2, Pick 50: Adam Ginning
- Round 4, Pick 112: John St. Ivany
Personally I count 4, maybe 5 tops out of 42 picks total. Discuss
Hi, first I would like to say that it is WAY too early to judge the drafts (2014 - 2018) in which Ron Hextall drafted, especially 2016-2018, as there is not enough time to judge which players are NHL caliber players. But, a lot of people on Reddit or Twitter have been saying that Hextall was a below average drafter, so I wanted to check
This is from a larger project in which I used the work of Jokke Nevalainen and added additional years and other stuff to see draft pick probabilities.
In his work, which is the guidelines to mine, he puts a person who passed the threshold of an NHL player at 100 games played. So in the upcoming charts, thats what I mean by "made it"
So instead of doing shitty reddit tables, I made a tableau to visualize this linked HERE
Here is the screenshot of the flyers one as well, but it has every team on there.
Now why these draft's are too early to tell.
Simply, because there has not been enough time passed in order to evaluate the players.
From my own data and the data that I linked above, these are the average amount of players per round that "made it" to be an NHL player
| Round | 2000-2015 | 2014-2018 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76.5% | 56.58% |
| 2 | 37.67% | 20.7% |
| 3 | 26.3% | 3.4% |
| 4 | 18.7% | 7.8% |
| 5 | 15.75% | 5.9% |
| 6 | 14.88% | 4.6% |
| 7 | 11.47% | 3.29% |
So its pretty easy to tell that a lot of prospects are still developing and trying to reach that 100 GP mark.
But lets look at the Flyers percentage to that 2014-2018 Average
| Round | Flyers 2014-2018 | NHL 2014-2018 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62.5% | 56.58% |
| 2 | 33.33% | 20.7% |
| 3 | 0% | 3.4% |
| 4 | 0% | 7.8% |
| 5 | 16.6% | 5.9% |
| 6 | 0% | 4.6% |
| 7 | 0% | 3.29% |
Now it is clear that right now, 1st and 2nd round Hextall did above average in terms of drafting NHL caliber talent, and then rounds 3-7 there hasnt been anyone other than Lindblom.
Now we do have some players that just havent played a ton, but has stuck in the NHL for one reason or another. Mark Friedman in Pittsburh, or Wyatt Kalynuk in Chicago. Morgan Frost and Wade Allison are people I think could reach the 100 GP mark as well, but like I said, it is too early to tell.
Final Thoughts:
While what I did was for NHL caliber talent
... keep reading on reddit ➡
I recently went on a underdog miracle run with the ducks made a wildcard and Gibson put insane playoff numbers going 1.83GAA and we lost in the finals(my team couldn't score full of 83 overalls or lower I was trying to tank), I thought he honestly should've won the Conn Smythe.
Luc Robitaille won the Calder that year with 45G 39A 84P in 79GP.
Voting was close for both Vezina and Calder. Hextall barely won the Vezina over Mike Liut and barely lost the Calder voting by 18 points.
