TL;DR: A BN-PAS coalition has a strong possibility of winning GE15 but the scales are still slightly tipped for the PH government, pending further infromation.
Okay, I tagged this as "Analysis" but lets be honest, a lot of these are back of the envelope calculations, mostly because I do not have most of the numbers yet. That said, we are not totally blind with regards to the data and we can probably make some educated guesses. Also note that all the below do not (and cannot) take into account the election petitions that challenges some of the results in GE14.
As far as I know, I am not sure if the score sheets are out yet but lets do the same back of the envelop calculation that Rafizi did during his recent BFM interview. Incidentally, if anybody has the score sheet, do let me know so that I can refine these estimates. Without further ado, though, lets look at the rough popular votes. We know roughly, that: -
- the PH government (and their Warisan allies) won roughly 48.5% of the popular vote
- the BN opposition won 34.3% of the votes and
- the Gagasan Sejahtera (i.e. PAS and... someone, I guess?) opposition won about 17.2%
With that out of the way, lets move to guessworks territories: -
- The idea that BN won the Malay popular vote comes from the assumption that if PH won about 90% of the Chinese votes and around 75% of Indian votes. Assuming that the around 65% of the others races voted for PH, that alone accounts to 27.5% of all votes. This means that only around 21.1% of the votes came from the Bumiputeras. I can't seem to find the recent proportion of Malay voters to Bumiputera from DoSM but DoSM's prior statistics suggests that 81.1% of Bumiputeras are Malay. Assuming that PH won only 40% of the non-Malay Bumi votes, it does imply that PH only won no more than 28% of the Malay votes.
- For the record, based on the above calculation, BN won about 40.1% of the Malay votes while GS won an estimate of about 29.9% of the Malay votes (with only a smattering of non-Malay votes won); doesn't take a genius to figure out that PH probably won 30% of the Malay votes. I am assuming t
I'm actually interested in this simply because Hudud.
You see, Hudud has a long standing ambition of PAS and to an extend the Muslim people. and to their credit, it's not applicable to non Muslim. So you are only fucked if you are malay=muslim.
Moving on from the long long long discussion of Hudud and the ambiguity of how it will be implemented, Hudud is the bargaining chip for BN.
BN has always suppress PAS in their ambition to implement Hudud until recently where they needed PAS support to win the election.
On the other hand, Pakatan Harapan leader has been the source for decades of suppression of this topic.
Which will they choose, BN or Pakatan Harapan?
I don't want to step on anybody's toes here, but the amount of non-dad jokes here in this subreddit really annoys me. First of all, dad jokes CAN be NSFW, it clearly says so in the sub rules. Secondly, it doesn't automatically make it a dad joke if it's from a conversation between you and your child. Most importantly, the jokes that your CHILDREN tell YOU are not dad jokes. The point of a dad joke is that it's so cheesy only a dad who's trying to be funny would make such a joke. That's it. They are stupid plays on words, lame puns and so on. There has to be a clever pun or wordplay for it to be considered a dad joke.
Again, to all the fellow dads, I apologise if I'm sounding too harsh. But I just needed to get it off my chest.
Do your worst!
I'm surprised it hasn't decade.
For context I'm a Refuse Driver (Garbage man) & today I was on food waste. After I'd tipped I was checking the wagon for any defects when I spotted a lone pea balanced on the lifts.
I said "hey look, an escaPEA"
No one near me but it didn't half make me laugh for a good hour or so!
Edit: I can't believe how much this has blown up. Thank you everyone I've had a blast reading through the replies 😂
It really does, I swear!
They’re on standbi
Pilot on me!!
Nothing, he was gladiator.
Dad jokes are supposed to be jokes you can tell a kid and they will understand it and find it funny.
This sub is mostly just NSFW puns now.
If it needs a NSFW tag it's not a dad joke. There should just be a NSFW puns subreddit for that.
Edit* I'm not replying any longer and turning off notifications but to all those that say "no one cares", there sure are a lot of you arguing about it. Maybe I'm wrong but you people don't need to be rude about it. If you really don't care, don't comment.
When I got home, they were still there.
What did 0 say to 8 ?
" Nice Belt "
So What did 3 say to 8 ?
" Hey, you two stop making out "
I won't be doing that today!
[Removed]
This morning, my 4 year old daughter.
Daughter: I'm hungry
Me: nerves building, smile widening
Me: Hi hungry, I'm dad.
She had no idea what was going on but I finally did it.
Thank you all for listening.
You take away their little brooms
There hasn't been a post all year!
Where ever you left it 🤷♀️🤭
It was about a weak back.
It’s pronounced “Noel.”
After all his first name is No-vac
What, then, is Chinese rap?
Edit:
Notable mentions from the comments:
-
Spanish/Swedish/Swiss/Serbian hits
-
French/Finnish art
-
Country/Canadian rap
-
Chinese/Country/Canadian rock
-
Turkish/Tunisian/Taiwanese rap
There hasn't been a single post this year!
(Happy 2022 from New Zealand)
Nothing, it just waved
Him: I can explain everything!
(It's his best joke yet I think)
Bob
So that I could frequently say, "I am going to walk 5 miles now."
Edit: My most popular post on Reddit! 😀 Thank you for the awards.
