Do you guys actually go thru the company 10k and 10q to come up with dcf model to come up with a fair value? Or do you guys just use analysts projections?
Hi! I have been learning to calculate DCF by watching at this YT channel called Learn to Invest. I have noticed that the required rate can make a huge impact on the fair value you get. For example 11.30 to 7.5.
My question is, do you use WACC or put something like 7.5 for your DFC?
I was doing today the model for AAPL and with a rate of 11.30 is a buy at 88, but with a rate of 7.5, its a 140 buy.
Title
I'm thinking about making a bivy/tent hybrid experimental shelter. My main goals are light weight and maximum weather protection at the cost of comfort. I've got the base design thought out, but I'm not sure what I should make the bathtub floor out of.
I'm used to polycro with my tarp, but it doesn't really make sense to attach it to a fabric tent body. The other option would be DCF, but that's simply out of my budget for this experiment. This leaves me with fabrics like silpoly (which will also be the main body fabric), but that would probably not last much.
Are there any other materials that I'm missing?
I made a blog post about Alibaba's business as a whole, looking at their numbers, buybacks, potential risks, and finished with a couple of DCF calculations to attempt to get the intrinsic value based on my assumptions for the future.
I ended up getting an intrinsic value of around $195-$207 for my base case, with my personal assumptions.
Let me know what you think! I just started writing so constructive criticism welcome!
Hopefully it will help some other potential investors!
As most of you, I do my own DCF valuations. I always felt that the more assumptions I make, the bigger the chance of being too far from reality and from the actual intrinsic value.
My question is, how do you guys breakdown the analysis? Do you start from growing revenues, assuming margins (operating, net income, FCF) or you just start by growing EPS/FCF/Dividends, discounting and calling it a day?
This is a really long and complicated situation so I’m going to try and give just enough background in order to effectively give you an idea of what’s going on without breaking down and crying. I have insomnia, I always have, since I was a little girl. It gets worse when my depression and anxiety get worse. Right now it’s at an all time high because I’m in an abusive relationship (not physical, just verbal and emotional) with the father of my child. My mind races until I cry myself to sleep and then in the morning I hit the snooze button 15 times because I don’t want to be alive much less then awake. I’m not a suicide risk because I’d never leave my daughter behind so please don’t worry. Anyways, I own a condo above a very grumpy old man. He’s been harassing me for years with nasty notes left on my door, he’s knocked on my door and windows in an attempt to wake me up at the crack of dawn, he’s done construction at 3am, he’s even taken me to court, where he told my boyfriend that he, “needs to get control of his woman”, and refused to call me by my name and instead referred to me as, “that one”. Why? Because I put my kid to bed passed 10 and he says that she keeps him up. She is 2, so at the moment, I don’t have to worry about school. Temper tantrums are definitely a thing though so I save her tablet/screen time for at night before bed so we’re super quiet. I’m always actively trying to push her sleep schedule back so that we’re consistently waking up earlier and going to bed earlier. I make progress and then lose it and end up at square one again because of my insomnia. It’s a constant, exhausting struggle and I feel so bad for putting her through it. She doesn’t seem to mind though and she is well fed, she is loved, I take her outside every day and play with her, she has all the toys she could possibly ever want, she has her own room that we just put a big girl bed in for her, and she has a safe, clean home. This man has threatened to call DCFS though. So my question is… can they take my daughter from me, for putting her to bed late? What would this process look like? Should I be scared?
The value of a company may be stated as the sum of the discounted cash flows. What I’m referring to is in the equation with the concept of each pile of dcf growing for only 1, 2, 3, etc. years by the discount rate. Mathematically I kind of understand(in terms of the idea of “discounting” future value) but I don’t get the real world application of this.
MLD Burn DCF (38L)
$220 OBO (CONUS only; paypal or Venmo)
- 16 oz when stripped down
- 18" (small) torso size
- no stains, holes, or tears
- Some abrasion inside hip belt and on bottom (see pics). Great condition for having gone nearly 1k miles
- Washed yesterday by hand with Dr. Bronners and air-dried
- Added more DCF tape to sewn-through parts to ensure water resistance (see pics)
- All straps still intact!
Wanted something smaller, so I'm reluctantly getting rid of this pretty f---ing ideal backpack.
You can read the article below
https://xtz.news/adoption/la-dcf-launches-an-investment-token-on-tezos-for-the-funding-of-french-cinema/
I've run dozens of DCF models and highly levered companies always cause me to 2nd guess my model. I don't want to treat a company with net cash the same as one with net debt
As of now I take the difference between EV and Market Cap and subtract it from my calculated PV of FCFs which decreases the price I am willing to pay. Or I add the difference if the EV is lower than market cap and that increases my calculated share price I am willing to pay. As you can imagine this can really penalize a company with a large amount of debt.
Am I right to make this adjustment or is it better to adjust for debt with a higher RRR or not adjust for it at all because that debt is being used to earn cash flow and thus already included in the model?
How do others approach this? I never see a debt adjustment with DCF modelers on YouTube.
Thank you
I saw a post that was pinned that linked to a DCF video from learning to invest and comes with a template and I was wondering if that is what most of you guys use or do you use different templates? Another post said that a lot of people don't like DCF's because they don't use them properly or they use the CAPM which he said was flawed. Is the Tracktak DCF tool good?
Little bit of closet cleaning:
Senchi Lark, size S, 3.3oz. $70. (SOLD) This is a brand new 60gsm black Lark. I have a size medium I love, but the small is a bit snug on me (5'6" and I usually wear women's mediums). Comes with mesh laundry bag. (SOLD)
Senchi Leggings, size S, 2.6oz. $60. (SOLD) Same story lol. Brand new, 60gsm, black. I have a pair of mediums that fit better. I'm around a size 6 in women's pants and these borderline do fit me, but I like a looser fit. Comes with mesh laundry bag. (SOLD)
Mountain Hardwear Ghost Shadow, size W's M. 10.4oz. $50. This is a synthetic puffy I like but just haven't ended up needing. It's a teal-blue color. I bought it very lightly used and have only worn it around town once or twice.
Zpacks DCF Roll-top Bag, .8oz. $20. (SOLD) I can't find my original order but I *think* this is their "medium plus dry bag." Grey 1.0 DCF with a velcro strip at top & buckle closure. Saw some gentle use this past summer but no visible holes, stains, etc. (SOLD)
Prices include shipping to the continental U.S. Paypal G&S.
I'm definitely willing to entertain offers or knock off a few bucks if I'm shipping any items together. Let me know if you have any questions about anything.
P.S. I'm also looking to buy a Borah cuben groundsheet, or a groundsheet quantity of .5-.8 DCF. So feel free to make trade offers as well.
Pictures & verification https://imgur.com/a/sJ6pD5y
SOLD X-mid 2p (41.09oz): new condition, set up once in backyard. Stakes included. Asking 300$ plus shipping.
SOLD MLD Grace Solo Camo DCF(8.28oz): Bought used and used 4 nights. Has 2 small burn holes (see pictures) and 1 of the side guy lines was replaced. Stakes NOT included. Asking 180$ including shipping conus. Will include both carbon fiber poles (0.98oz, 1.62oz).
Q-Core SLX 20x72” (18.05oz): bought new and used 12 nights. Really comfy but I prefer my xlite for extra warmth. Will include pumpsack (2.99 oz). Asking 80$ including shipping conus.
SOLD MSR Pocket Rocket2 (2.64oz): bought new and used about 15 days on trail. No issues with the stove. Includes hard case. Asking 20$ including shipping conus.
Antigravity gear rain jacket (6.7 oz): size medium. NOT seam sealed. Used about 10 days on trail. Been store in stuff sack for a couple years and is very wrinkled. Pit zips. Asking 20$ including shipping conus.
SOLD Sea to summit reactor extreme (13.05 oz): used 5 days on trail. Asking 30$ including shipping conus.
My sister was recently in a domestic dispute. On Christmas eve, I called the police on an individual for putting hands on her. I worked LEO for a very long time and in these cases it's just best to have the police involved. Plus the guy has a history of violence.
Basically he's very controlling, they really don't come to our family functions, it's only his family they see. So on Christmas eve my sister said F U and came to my Christmas party for my siblings. She went home that night and called me a few hours later hysterical that her boyfriend put his hands on her while she was holding their child. So as any person would do she tried to fight him off, in the process scratched him and tore his shirt.
My wife and I grabbed our shit and headed to her house (45min away) and I called the cops in the process. He was picked up for unlawful restraint and spent the night in jail and Christmas day. He wasn't happen, but I didn't really give a shit.
Anyways fast forward to now, my sister informed me that DCFS marked her file with child endangerment....? I spoke to them explained everything to them and that this wasn't the first time he's been physical etc.
I guess I don't understand how they mark her down with that as well when she was fighting for herself and her child. Who knows it could have been their lives. WTF.
she can't afford an attorney and no luck on probono ones. She wants to be a teacher and with something like that showing up, she'll never get a job in that field.
any advice how to get this removed or help her get this removed IMHO it's BS she got marked with it.
Selling,
Verification+Pics https://imgur.com/a/KA0Q1sy
-(SOLD)BA Tiger wall ul 2 (39oz) Bought in 2019, has probably around 10 nights on it. Great condition but I have small piece of tape on insert floor from small tear from the one night I didn’t use footprint. Other than that good to go includes everything except stakes.
(SOLD)
-(SOLD)HLMG dcf stuff sack pillow 2019 (1.6oz) Minimal usage using air pillow now.
(SOLD)
-Altra gators (0.8oz) These gators are to tight for me, minimal usage.
$13 shipped PayPal G&S
-Garmin 64st GPSmap (7oz) Turned on but never used in the field. Selling because I don’t use.
$250 shipped PayPal G&S
CONUS PayPal G&S +3%
Motivated to sell it all.
-Rob
Hi.
I ran a simple DCF for DSV, and find that it's massively undervalued. I'm sure my valuation is very, very wrong, as I'm sure it's likely not undervalued, or at least not as undervalued as my calculations indicate.
The data that went into my valuation is this:
- Earnings of $5B. As their earnings during the pandemic has had major tailwinds due to extraordinarily high fees, I decided to go for what seems like a fair increase based on its previous years' growth
- Growth next 5 years: 8%
- Growth next 5-10 years: 6%
- Discount rate: 10%
- Terminal multiple: 5. This is half of today's P/E of 10.
Note that this valuation is only the normal case scenario.
The present value adds up to $73B, which is far above the current market cap of $50B.
Have I misinterpreted the DCF result maybe, in that the result value of 73 does not represent the company value?
UPDATE: This is obviously not an investment thesis on its own, and that there may be fundamentals that will explain the low price. I've looked at the much of the annual report and financials, and haven't yet found any obvious factors that would indicate that this business won't thrive for the years to come. But even if/when I find such information, I'd be surprised if that would explain whey the intrinsic value is so high compared to the price. So to sum up: If we focus on the DCF itself for now, with the (at least from my viewpoint) very conservative inputs, I feel I'm missing something.
I am doing my final project for school and was wondering what industry would be easier for a full DCF? Financials or Energy?
What methods do you use for a development site valuation in practise? Lets say for a simple multifamily development thats sold at completion. Residual method/simple feasibility seems like an easy method for quick results but even little changes in disposition value or construction costs give me huge differences in the final site acquisition price. Do people make a complete dcf of the construction period then value the asset at completion, etc? I have heard of a “canonical method” that parses out the cashflows and applies a different discount rate to each component (+ discounted stabilized asset - discounted construction cost = NPV for project or land value). Thanks in advance for sharing your ideas about this.
Selling a custom ordered Front Range 40L pack from Red Paw. Ordered back in March of 2021 and only used for the Dixon Wind River High Route in August.
21 inch torso. Weighs 22 oz
Pack is made from 5 oz black dyneema with dyneema melange shoulder straps, black dyneema mesh front pocket, and spandura bottom/side pockets. Has ice axe loop, running style vest straps, rear entry bottom pocket, and 1" removable hip belt
No holes or major scuffs/scrapes/stains on pack
Pics with verification: https://imgur.com/a/P5CLC8m
Asking $250 $225
SOLD
This is a catch and release off here. Nothing wrong with it at all, just decided to go with SilPoly instead. Price included Paypal G&S 3% and shipping anywhere.
Itemized weight:
- Tarp: 8.7 oz | 247g
- Rigging: 2.0 oz | 57g
- Stuff sack: 0.2 oz | 6g
- Landfill waste: 6.2 oz | 176g
(Average weight of waste from in-house manufacturing; mostly tape backing) - Total Packaged Weight: 10.9 oz | 309g
- Note: Some rigging can be omitted or changed to reduce weight.
Rigging Detail:
- Reflective guyline: 1.4 oz | 40g
- Fastline Clip (1): 0.13 oz | 4g
- Lineloc Tensioners (9): 0.41 oz | 13g
- Guyline Grommet (1): 0.1 oz | 3g
- Note: Tensioners and grommet can be removed (and added back) non-destructively.
Materials:
- Tarp: 0.8 oz DCF (CT2E.08)
- Color: Green
Dimensions:
Please note that the dimensions will vary depending on how you pitch the tarp. Fairly typical dimensions are provided below.
- Approx. width at front: 61" | 155cm
- Approx. width at foot: 50" | 127cm
- Length between apexes: 90" | 229cm
- Packed size: 7" x 5.5" x 2.5" | 18cm x 14cm x 6cm
I get that the preamble and the interframe gap aren't actually fields in Ethernet's layer 2 header, but they still take up bandwidth, so it seems nonsensical to exclude them from bandwidth calculations. I'm specifically thinking of VoIP - Cisco claims that a G.711 call will take-up 87kbps of data when you include RTP, UDP, IP, and Ethernet overhead. However, when you factor in the preamble and interframe gap, that number actually becomes 95kbps.
1.) DCF building was torn down in August, 2018. In April 2019, LE did the infamous press conference about their "change of direction" and asked for information about a car parked at the abandoned DCF building. Is it possible that they found evidence during the DCF building's demolition that led to the change in direction?
2.) FBI say they are looking for a car parked at the building between 12PM- 5PM. The girls arrived at the trail around 1:30 (IIRC). The search parties started gathering at about 5:30 (search began at 6). Is it possible they believe BG is local because he had knowledge of when the search would be beginning (i.e., local word had traveled to BG so he got out of the area as soon as he realized people were looking).
Sorry if this has been discussed before but I haven't seen much about these specific notes.
So I am back with a DCF on Larson & Toubro and I have modified my framework quite a bit to improve the output of Intrinsic Value, if the company.
When I was building the model, the financials it had were quite amazing. The (Historic) cash flow, Net Income Margin, EBITDA Margin, and the WACC of Larson is at 8.44%; which suggests it is quite a safe company (Basically people take Discount Rate at a around 10%, the riskier the company the higher the discount rate, and vice versa). So it holds quite a optimistic future if you just see the financials.
The DCF Model :- https://drive.google.com/file/d/18OWDYgMtFvTqlQI7XMpStTlUfdrLbrKk/view?usp=drivesdk
The DCF Model suggests that it, In the Foreseeable have a Internal Return of 23.4% in a 5 Year time period per annum. If that is becomes true, then it will outperform the broader Indian Equity Market, which only a handfull of companies do it in the long run (5 Years).
If you have any suggestions on how to improve the model, pls tell me in the comments.
I think alot of the new posters on this board have the impression that if you make a good enough DCF model, have a good enough investment checklist and do enough quanitative anaylisis you will be a good value investor. To be clear there is nothing substantially wrong with these tools but in my opinion value investing (which I consider growth at a reasonable price) should be much more fluid. It is not a rigid inflexable set of ideas and criteria. Yes cash flows are extremely important but if the stock has high FCF today and future cashflows are easily predictable chances are they are already selling at a premium. That plus the assumptions you make are likely going to be wrong. I've seen checklists that disregard companies that are losing money. I think this is a huge mistake especially if the reason is only temporary. A company that can improve its buisness and fix a big problem can huge returns. My only extreme guiding principle that is inflexable is what Benjamin Graham said in the intelligent investor. "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative" saftey of principle keeps me away from the meme stocks and high-flying overvalued garbage. Everything else is mostly situational there can always be special situations.
Hello I wondered how you guys handle the debt of a company in your DCF-Model. Particularly I am interested in debt, that matures for example after 2050. Do you include that or do you exclude it, because it will not be paid back during your holding time (~10 years)? Thank you in advance for your answers.
Hi.
Take this company's fair value as an example. As of now we're at "fair value". Does this mean that the DCF valuations of the analysts, with a 0% discount rate, is equal to the current stock price?
